Reasoning about timeouts

In real-time programming a timeout mechanism allows exceptional behaviour, such as a lack of response, to be handled effectively, while not overly affecting the programming for the normal case. For. example, in a pump controller if the water level has gone below the minimum level and the pump is on and hence pumping in more water, then the water level should rise above the minimum level within a specified time. If not, there is a fault in the system and it should be shut down and an alarm raised. Such a situation can be handled by normal case code that determines when the level has risen above the minimum, plus a timeout case handling the situation when the specified time to reach the minimum has passed. In this paper we introduce a timeout mechanism, give it a formal definition in terms of more basic real-time commands, develop a refinement law for introducing a timeout clause to implement a specification, and give an example of using the law to introduce a timeout. The framework used is a machine-independent real-time programming language, which makes use of a deadline command to represent timing constraints in a machine-independent fashion. This allows a more abstract approach to handling timeouts.

Reasoning about deadlines in concurrent real-time programs

We propose a method for the timing analysis of concurrent real-time programs with hard deadlines. We divide the analysis into a machine-independent and a machine-dependent task. The latter takes into account the execution times of the program on a particular machine. Therefore, our goal is to make the machine-dependent phase of the analysis as simple as possible. We succeed in the sense that the machine-dependent phase remains the same as in the analysis of sequential programs. We shift the complexity introduced by concurrency completely to the machine-independent phase.

Transformational leadership and moral reasoning

Terms such as moral and ethical leadership are used widely in theory, yet little systematic research has related a sociomoral dimension to leadership in organizations. This study investigated whether managers' moral reasoning (n=132) was associated with the transformational and transactional leadership behaviors they exhibited as perceived by their subordinates (n=407). Managers completed the Defining Issues Test (J. R. Rest, 1990), whereas their subordinates completed the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (B. M. Bass & B. J. Avolio, 1995). Analysis of covariance indicated that managers scoring in the highest group of the moral-reasoning distribution exhibited more transformational leadership behaviors than leaders scoring in the lowest group. As expected, there was no relationship between moral-reasoning group and transactional leadership behaviors. Implications for leadership development are discussed.

Applying qualitative reasoning to finance

Qualitative reasoning has traditionally been applied in the domain of physical systems, where there are well established and understood laws governing the behaviour of each `component' in the system. Such application has shown that it is possible to produce models which can be used for explaining and predicting the behaviour of physical phenomena and also trouble-shooting. The principles underlying the theory ensure that the models are robust and exhibit consistent behaviour under all conditions. This research examines the validity of applying the theory in the financial domain where such laws may not exist or if they do, may not be universally applicable. In particular, it investigates how far these principles and techniques may be applied in the construction of financial analysis models. Because of the inherent differences in the nature of these two domains, it is argued that a different qualitative value system ought to be employed. The dissertation enlarges on the constraints this places on model descriptions and the effect it may have on the power and usefulness of the resulting models. It also describes the implementation of a system that investigates the implications of applying this theory by way of testing it on situations drawn from both text-books and published financial information.

Hierarchical case-based reasoning to support knitwear design

Knitwear design is a creative activity that is hard to automate using the computer. The production of the associated knitting pattern, however, is repetitive, time-consuming and error-prone, calling for automation. Our objectives are two-fold: to facilitate the design and to ease the burden of calculations and checks in pattern production. We conduct a feasibility study for applying case-based reasoning in knitwear design: we describe appropriate methods and show their application.

The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

A method for automatically eliciting node weights in a hierarchical knowledge-based structure for reasoning with uncertainty

Hierarchical knowledge structures are frequently used within clinical decision support systems as part of the model for generating intelligent advice. The nodes in the hierarchy inevitably have varying influence on the decisionmaking processes, which needs to be reflected by parameters. If the model has been elicited from human experts, it is not feasible to ask them to estimate the parameters because there will be so many in even moderately-sized structures. This paper describes how the parameters could be obtained from data instead, using only a small number of cases. The original method [1] is applied to a particular web-based clinical decision support system called GRiST, which uses its hierarchical knowledge to quantify the risks associated with mental-health problems. The knowledge was elicited from multidisciplinary mental-health practitioners but the tree has several thousand nodes, all requiring an estimation of their relative influence on the assessment process. The method described in the paper shows how they can be obtained from about 200 cases instead. It greatly reduces the experts’ elicitation tasks and has the potential for being generalised to similar knowledge-engineering domains where relative weightings of node siblings are part of the parameter space.

Development of reasoning:Behavioral evidence to support reinforcement over cognitive control accounts

Speed's theory makes two predictions for the development of analogical reasoning. Firstly, young children should not be able to reason analogically due to an undeveloped PFC neural network. Secondly, category knowledge enables the reinforcement of structural features over surface features, and thus the development of sophisticated, analogical, reasoning. We outline existing studies that support these predictions and highlight some critical remaining issues. Specifically, we argue that the development of inhibition must be directly compared alongside the development of reasoning strategies in order to support Speed's account. © 2010 Psychology Press.

Contradiction in universal and particular reasoning

A wide range of essential reasoning tasks rely on contradiction identification, a cornerstone of human rationality, communication and debate founded on the inversion of the logical operators "Every" and "Some." A high-density electroencephalographic (EEG) study was performed in 11 normal young adults. The cerebral network involved in the identification of contradiction included the orbito-frontal and anterior-cingulate cortices and the temporo-polar cortices. The event-related dynamic of this network showed an early negative deflection lasting 500 ms after sentence presentation. This was followed by a positive deflection lasting 1.5 s, which was different for the two logical operators. A lesser degree of network activation (either in neuron number or their level of phase locking or both) occurred while processing statements with "Some," suggesting that this was a relatively simpler scenario with one example to be figured out, instead of the many examples or the absence of a counterexample searched for while processing statements with "Every." A self-generated reward system seemed to resonate the recruited circuitry when the contradictory task is successfully completed.

An investigation into inductive parameter learning in complex hierarchical knowledge structures representing clinical expertise

This dissertation investigates the very important and current problem of modelling human expertise. This is an apparent issue in any computer system emulating human decision making. It is prominent in Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) due to the complexity of the induction process and the vast number of parameters in most cases. Other issues such as human error and missing or incomplete data present further challenges. In this thesis, the Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is used as an example of modelling clinical expertise and parameter elicitation. The tool is a mental health clinical record management system with a top layer of decision support capabilities. It is currently being deployed by several NHS mental health trusts across the UK. The aim of the research is to investigate the problem of parameter elicitation by inducing them from real clinical data rather than from the human experts who provided the decision model. The induced parameters provide an insight into both the data relationships and how experts make decisions themselves. The outcomes help further understand human decision making and, in particular, help GRiST provide more accurate emulations of risk judgements. Although the algorithms and methods presented in this dissertation are applied to GRiST, they can be adopted for other human knowledge engineering domains.

The madness that is the world:young activists' emotional reasoning and their participation in a local Occupy movement

The focus of this paper is young people’s participation in the Occupy protest movement that emerged in the early autumn of 2011. Its concern is with the emotional dimensions of this and in particular the significance of emotions to the reasoning of young people who came to commit significant time and energy to the movement. Its starting point is the critique of emotions as narrowly subjective, whereby the passions that events like Occupy arouse are treated as beyond the scope of human reason. The rightful rejection of this reductionist argument has given rise to an interest in under- standings of the emotional content of social and political protest as normatively con- stituted, but this paper seeks a different perspective by arguing that the emotions of Occupy activists can be regarded as a reasonable force. It does so by discussing find- ings from long-term qualitative research with a Local Occupy movement somewhere in England and Wales. Using the arguments of social realists, the paper explores this data to examine why things matter sufficiently for young people to care about them and how the emotional force that this involves constitutes an indispensable source of reason in young activists’ decisions to become involved in Local Occupy.