Applications of GIS and remote sensing techniques for studying the housing patterns in Cairo Governorate

The main objective of this study is to reveal the housing patterns in Cairo as one of the most rapidly urbanizing city in the developing world. The study outlines the evolution of the housing problem and its influencing factors in Egypt generally and in Cairo specifically. The study takes into account the political transition from the national state economy to the open door policy, the neo-liberal period and finally to the housing situation after the January 2011 Revolution. The resulting housing patterns in Cairo Governorate were identified as (1) squatter settlements, (2) semi-informal settlements, (3) deteriorated inner pockets, and (4) formal settlements. rnThe study concluded that the housing patterns in Cairo are reflecting a multifaceted problem resulting in: (1) the imbalance between the high demand for affordable housing units for low-income families and the oversupply of upper-income housing, (2) the vast expansion of informal areas both on agricultural and desert lands, (3) the deterioration of the old parts of Cairo without upgrading or appropriate replacement of the housing structure, and (4) the high vacancy rate of newly constructed apartmentsrnThe evolution and development of the current housing problem were attributed to a number of factors. These factors are demographic factors represented in the rapid growth of the population associated with urbanization under the dictates of poverty, and the progressive increase of the prices of both buildable land and building materials. The study underlined that the current pattern of population density in Cairo Governorate is a direct result of the current housing problems. Around the depopulation core of the city, a ring of relatively stable areas in terms of population density has developed. Population densification, at the expense of the depopulation core, is characterizing the peripheries of the city. The population density in relation to the built-up area was examined using Landsat-7 ETM+ image (176/039). The image was acquired on 24 August 2006 and considered as an ideal source for land cover classification in Cairo since it is compatible with the population census 2006.rnConsidering that the socio-economic setting is a driving force of change of housing demand and that it is an outcome of the accumulated housing problems, the socio-economic deprivations of the inhabitants of Cairo Governorate are analyzed. Small administrative units in Cairo are categorized into four classes based on the Socio-Economic Opportunity Index (SEOI). This index is developed by using multiple domains focusing on the economic, educational and health situation of the residential population. The results show four levels of deprivation which are consistent with the existing housing patterns. Informal areas on state owned land are included in the first category, namely, the “severely deprived” level. Ex-formal areas or deteriorated inner pockets are characterized as “deprived” urban quarters. Semi-informal areas on agricultural land concentrate in the third category of “medium deprived” settlements. Formal or planned areas are included mostly in the fourth category of the “less deprived” parts of Cairo Governorate. rnFor a better understanding of the differences and similarities among the various housing patterns, four areas based on the smallest administrative units of shiakhat were selected for a detailed study. These areas are: (1) El-Ma’desa is representing a severely deprived squatter settlement, (2) Ain el-Sira is an example for an ex-formal deprived area, (3) El-Marg el-Qibliya was selected as a typical semi-informal and medium deprived settlement, and (4) El-Nozha is representing a formal and less deprived area.rnThe analysis at shiakhat level reveals how the socio-economic characteristics and the unregulated urban growth are greatly reflected in the morphological characteristics of the housing patterns in terms of street network and types of residential buildings as well as types of housing tenure. It is also reflected in the functional characteristics in terms of land use mix and its degree of compatibility. It is concluded that the provision and accessibility to public services represents a performance measure of the dysfunctional structure dominating squatter and semi-informal settlements on one hand and ample public services and accessibility in formal areas on the other hand.rn

Urban Expansion and its impact on urban agriculture - remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley - Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel- oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwe llers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural - formal as well as informal - urbani- sation are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A mul- titemporal and multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualise the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the south of Dar Es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analysed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously, and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in- terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualise an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analysed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob- served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase the density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.

Expansion on specific substrates regulates the phenotype and differentiation capacity of human articular chondrocytes

In this study, we investigated if monolayer expansion of adult human articular chondrocytes (AHAC) on specific substrates regulates cell phenotype and post-expansion multilineage differentiation ability. AHAC isolated from cartilage biopsies of five donors were expanded on plastic dishes (PL), on dishes coated with collagen type II (COL), or on slides coated with a ceramic material (Osteologic, OS). The phenotype of expanded chondrocytes was assessed by flow cytometry and real-time RT-PCR. Cells were then cultured in previously established conditions promoting differentiation toward the chondrogenic or osteogenic lineage. AHAC differentiation was assessed histologically, biochemically, and by real-time RT-PCR. As compared to PL-expanded AHAC, those expanded on COL did not exhibit major phenotypic changes, whereas OS-expanded cells expressed (i) higher bone sialoprotein (BSP) (22.6-fold) and lower collagen type II (9.3-fold) mRNA levels, and (ii) lower CD26, CD90 and CD140 surface protein levels (1.4-11.1-fold). Following chondrogenic differentiation, COL-expanded AHAC expressed higher mRNA levels of collagen type II (2.3-fold) and formed tissues with higher glycosaminoglycan (GAG) contents (1.7-fold), whereas OS-expanded cells expressed 16.5-fold lower collagen type II and generated pellets with 2.0-fold lower GAG contents. Following osteogenic differentiation, OS-expanded cells expressed higher levels of BSP (3.9-fold) and collagen type I (2.8-fold) mRNA. In summary, AHAC expansion on COL or OS modulated the de-differentiated cell phenotype and improved the cell differentiation capacity respectively toward the chondrogenic or osteogenic lineage. Phenotypic changes induced by AHAC expansion on specific substrates may mimic pathophysiological events occurring at different stages of osteoarthritis and may be relevant for the engineering of osteochondral tissues.

Synthesis of the bicyclo-[4.3.0]thymidyl nucleoside via Pd(II)-mediated ring expansion chemistry

A variety of modified nucleosides to improve antisense oligodeoxynucleotide properties such as target affinity, nuclease resistance, and pharmacokinetics were developed in the last two decades. In the context of conformational restriction we present here the synthesis of the [4.3.0]-bicyclo-DNA thymine monomer via Pd(II)-mediated ring expansion of an intermediate of the tricyclo-DNA synthesis.

Hypoxic expansion promotes the chondrogenic potential of articular chondrocytes

For cell-based cartilage repair strategies, an ex vivo expansion phase is required to obtain sufficient numbers of cells needed for therapy. Although recent reports demonstrated the central role of oxygen for the function and differentiation of chondrocytes, a beneficial effect of low oxygen concentrations during the expansion of the cells to further improve their chondrogenic capacity has not been investigated.Therefore, freshly harvested bovine articular chondrocytes were grown in two-dimensional monolayer cultures at 1.5% and 21% O2 and redifferentiation was subsequently induced in three-dimensional micromass cultures at 1.5%, 5%, and 21% O2. Cells expanded at 1.5% O2 were characterized by low citrate synthase (aerobic energy metabolism)--and high LDH (anaerobic energy metabolism-activities,suggesting an anaerobic energy metabolism. Collagen type II mRNA was twofold higher in cells expanded at 1.5% as compared to expansion at 21% O2. Micromass cultures grown at 21% O2 showed up to a twofold increase in the tissue content of glycosaminoglycans when formed with cells expanded at 1.5% instead of 21% O2. However, no differences in the levels of transcripts and in the staining for collagen type II protein were observed in these micromass cultures. Hypoxia (1.5% and 5% O2) applied during micromass cultures gave rise to tissues with low contents of glycosaminoglycans only. In vivo, the chondrocytes are adapted to a hypoxic environment. Taking this into account, by applying 1.5% O2 in the expansion phase in the course of cell-based cartilage repair strategies, may result in a repair tissue with higher quality by increasing the content of glycosaminoglycans.

Study of water use and supply in the district of Independencia, Peru

Peru is a developing country with abundant fresh water resources, yet the lack of infrastructure leaves much of the population without access to safe water for domestic uses. The author of this report was a Peace Corps Volunteer in the sector of water & sanitation in the district of Independencia, Ica, Peru. Independencia is located in the arid coastal region of the country, receiving on average 15 mm of rain annually. The water source for this district comes from the Pisco River, originating in the Andean highlands and outflowing into the Pacific Ocean near the town of Pisco, Peru. The objectives of this report are to assess the water supply and sanitation practices, model the existing water distribution system, and make recommendations for future expansion of the distribution system in the district of Independencia, Peru. The assessment of water supply will be based on the results from community surveys done in the district of Independencia, water quality testing done by a detachment of the U.S. Navy, as well as on the results of a hydraulic model built in EPANET 2.0 to represent the distribution system. Sanitation practice assessments will be based on the surveys as well as observations from the author while living in Peru. Recommendations for system expansions will be made based on results from the EPANET model and the municipality’s technical report for the existing distribution system. Household water use and sanitation surveys were conducted with 84 families in the district revealing that upwards of 85% store their domestic water in regularly washed containers with lids. Over 80% of those surveyed are drinking water that is treated, mostly boiled. Of those surveyed, over 95% reported washing their hands and over 60% mentioned at least one critical time for hand washing when asked for specific instances. From the surveys, it was also discovered that over 80% of houses are properly disposing of excrement, in either latrines or septic tanks. There were 43 families interviewed with children five years of age or under, and just over 18% reported the child had a case of diarrhea within the last month at the time of the interview. Finally, from the surveys it was calculated that the average water use per person per day is about 22 liters. Water quality testing carried out by a detachment of the U.S. Navy revealed that the water intended for consumption in the houses surveyed was not suitable for consumption, with a median E. coli most probable number of 47/100 ml for the 61 houses sampled. The median total coliforms was 3,000 colony forming units per 100 ml. EPANET was used to simulate the water delivery system and evaluate its performance. EPANET is designed for continuous water delivery systems, assuming all pipes are always flowing full. To account for the intermittent nature of the system, multiple EPANET network models were created to simulate how water is routed to the different parts of the system throughout the day. The models were created from interviews with the water technicians and a map of the system created using handheld GPS units. The purpose is to analyze the performance of the water system that services approximately 13,276 people in the district of Independencia, Peru, as well as provide recommendations for future growth and improvement of the service level. Performance evaluation of the existing system is based on meeting 25 liters per person per day while maintaining positive pressure at all nodes in the network. The future performance is based on meeting a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, as proposed by Chase (2000). The EPANET model results yield an average nodal pressure for all communities of 71 psi, with a range from 1.3 – 160 psi. Thus, if the current water delivery schedule obtained from the local municipality is followed, all communities should have sufficient pressure to deliver 25 l/p/d, with the exception of Los Rosales, which can only supply 3.25 l/p/d. However, if the line to Los Rosales were increased from one to four inches, the system could supply this community with 25 l/p/d. The district of Independencia could greatly benefit from increasing the service level to 24-hour water delivery and a minimum of 50 l/p/d, so that communities without reliable access due to insufficient pressure would become equal beneficiaries of this invaluable resource. To evaluate the feasibility of this, EPANET was used to model the system with a range of population growth rates, system lifetimes, and demands. In order to meet a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, the 6-inch diameter main line must be increased and approximately two miles of trench must be excavated up to 30 feet deep. The sections of the main line that must be excavated are mile 0-1 and 1.5-2.5, and the first 3.4 miles of the main line must be increased from 6 to 16 inches, contracting to 10 inches for the remaining 5.8 miles. Doing this would allow 24-hour water delivery and provide 50 l/p/d for a range of population growth rates and system lifetimes. It is expected that improving the water delivery service would reduce the morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases by decreasing the recontamination of the water due to transport and household storage, as well as by maintaining continuous pressure in the system to prevent infiltration of contaminated groundwater. However, this expansion must be carefully planned so as not to affect aquatic ecosystems or other districts utilizing water from the Pisco River. It is recommended that stream gaging of the Pisco River and precipitation monitoring of the surrounding watershed is initiated in order to begin a hydrological study that would be integrated into the district’s water resource planning. It is also recommended that the district begin routine water quality testing, with the results available to the public.

The Integration of Formal and Non-formal Education: The Dutch “brede school”

The Dutch “brede school” (BS) development originates in the 1990s and has spread unevenly since: quicker in the primary than secondary educational sector. In 2007, there were about 1000 primary and 350 secondary BS schools and it is the intention of the government as well as the individual municipalities to extend that number and make the BS the dominant school form of the near future. In the primary sector, a BS cooperates with crèche and preschool facilities, besides possible other neighborhood partners. The main targets are, first, to enhance educational opportunities, particularly for children with little (western-) cultural capital, and secondly to increase women’s labor market participation by providing extra familial care for babies and small children. All primary schools are now obliged to provide such care. In the secondary sector, a BS is less neighborhood-orientated than a primary BS because those schools are bigger and more often located in different buildings. As in the primary sector, there are broad and more narrow BS, the first profile cooperating with many non-formal and other partners and facilities and the second with few. On the whole, there is a wide variety of BS schools, with different profiles and objectives, dependent on the needs and wishes of the initiators and the neighborhood. A BS is always the result of initiatives of the respective school and its partners: parents, other neighborhood associations, municipality etc. BS schools are not enforced by the government although the general trend will be that existing school organizations transform into BS. The integration of formal and non-formal education and learning is more advanced in primary than secondary schools. In secondary education, vocational as well as general, there is a clear dominance of formal education; the non-formal curriculum serves mainly two lines and objectives: first, provide attractive leisure activities and second provide compensatory courses and support for under-achievers who are often students with migrant background. In both sectors, primary and secondary, it is the formal school organization with its professionals which determines the character of a BS; there is no full integration of formal and non-formal education resulting in one non-disruptive learning trajectory, nor is there the intention to go in that direction. Non-formal pedagogues are partly professionals, like youth- and social workers, partly volunteers, like parents, partly non-educational partners, like school-police, psycho-medical help or commercial leisure providers. Besides that, the BS is regarded by government educational and social policy as a potential partner and anchor for community development. It is too early to make reliable statements about the effects of the BS movement in the Netherlands concerning the educational opportunities for disadvantaged children and their families, especially those with migrant background, and combat further segregation. Evaluation studies made so far are moderately positive but also point to problems of overly bureaucratized structures and layers, lack of sufficient financial resources and, again, are uncertain about long-term effects.

Development of a process model for the automatic miniload warehouse expansion

This paper provides an insight to the development of a process model for the essential expansion of the automatic miniload warehouse. The model is based on the literature research and covers four phases of a warehouse expansion: the preparatory phase, the current state analysis, the design phase and the decision making phase. In addition to the literature research, the presented model is based on a reliable data set and can be applicable with a reasonable effort to ensure the informed decision on the warehouse layout. The model is addressed to users who are usually employees of logistics department, and is oriented on the improvement of the daily business organization combined with the warehouse expansion planning.

Sprouting and intussusceptive angiogenesis in postpneumonectomy lung growth: mechanisms of alveolar neovascularization

In most rodents and some other mammals, the removal of one lung results in compensatory growth associated with dramatic angiogenesis and complete restoration of lung capacity. One pivotal mechanism in neoalveolarization is neovascularization, because without angiogenesis new alveoli can not be formed. The aim of this study is to image and analyze three-dimensionally the different patterns of neovascularization seen following pneumonectomy in mice on a sub-micron-scale. C57/BL6 mice underwent a left-sided pneumonectomy. Lungs were harvested at various timepoints after pneumonectomy. Volume analysis by microCT revealed a striking increase of 143 percent in the cardiac lobe 14 days after pneumonectomy. Analysis of microvascular corrosion casting demonstrated spatially heterogenous vascular densitities which were in line with the perivascular and subpleural compensatory growth pattern observed in anti-PCNA-stained lung sections. Within these regions an expansion of the vascular plexus with increased pillar formations and sprouting angiogenesis, originating both from pre-existing bronchial and pulmonary vessels was observed. Also, type II pneumocytes and alveolar macrophages were seen to participate actively in alveolar neo-angiogenesis after pneumonectomy. 3D-visualizations obtained by high-resolution synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy showed the appearance of double-layered vessels and bud-like alveolar baskets as have already been described in normal lung development. Scanning electron microscopy data of microvascular architecture also revealed a replication of perialveolar vessel networks through septum formation as already seen in developmental alveolarization. In addition, the appearance of pillar formations and duplications on alveolar entrance ring vessels in mature alveoli are indicative of vascular remodeling. These findings indicate that sprouting and intussusceptive angiogenesis are pivotal mechanisms in adult lung alveolarization after pneumonectomy. Various forms of developmental neoalveolarization may also be considered to contribute in compensatory lung regeneration.

Assessing the effectiveness of a long-standing rocky intertidal protected area and its contribution to the regional conservation of species, habitats and assemblages

1. The acceptance of reserves as a useful management strategy relies on evidence of their effectiveness in preserving stocks of harvested species and conserving biodiversity. A history of ad hoc decisions in terrestrial and marine protected area planning has meant that many of these areas are contributing inefficiently to conservation goals. The conservation value of existing protected areas should be assessed when planning the placement of additional areas in a reserve network. 2. This study tested (1) the effectiveness of protection for intertidal molluscs of a marine reserve (Bouddi Marine Extension, NSW, Australia) established in 1971, and (2) the contribution of the protected area to the conservation of regional species, assemblages, and habitats. 3. The shell length and population density of one harvested (Cellana tramoserica), and three non-harvested species (Bembicium nanum, Morula marginalba, Nerita atramentosa) of intertidal molluscs were examined in the protected area and two reference locations over two seasons. 4. The heavily collected limpet C. tramoserica was significantly larger in the protected area and was the only species to exhibit a significant difference. No species significantly differed in population density between the protected area and reference locations. 5. Temporally replicated surveys of macro-molluscs at 21 locations over 75km of coastline identified that the existing protected area included 50% of species, two of five assemblage types and 19 of 20 intertidal rocky shore habitats surveyed in the study region. Reservation of a further three rocky reefs would protect a large proportion of species (71%), a representative of each assemblage and all habitat types. 6. Despite originally being selected in the absence of information on regional biodiversity, the protected area is today an effective starting point for expansion to a regional network of intertidal protected areas.

Evaluation of a new experimental model to study bone healing after ridge expansion with simultaneous implant placement--a pilot study in minipigs.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the suitability of a minipig model for the study of bone healing and osseointegration of dental implants following bone splitting and expansion of narrow ridges. MATERIAL AND METHODS In four minipigs, the mandibular premolars and first molars were extracted together with removal of the buccal bone plate. Three months later, ridge splitting and expansion was performed with simultaneous placement of three titanium implants per quadrant. On one side of the mandible, the expanded bone gap between the implants was filled with an alloplastic biphasic calcium phosphate (BCP) material, while the gap on the other side was left unfilled. A barrier membrane was placed in half of the quadrants. After a healing period of 6 weeks, the animals were sacrificed for histological evaluation. RESULTS In all groups, no bone fractures occurred, no implants were lost, all 24 implants were osseointegrated, and the gap created by bone splitting was filled with new bone, irrespective of whether BCP or a barrier membrane was used. Slight exposure of five implants was observed, but did not lead to implant loss. The level of the most coronal bone-to-implant contact varied without being dependent on the use of BCP or a barrier membrane. In all groups, the BCP particles were not present deep in the bone-filled gap. However, BCP particles were seen at the crestal bone margin, where they were partly integrated in the new bone. CONCLUSIONS This new minipig model holds great promise for studying experimental ridge splitting/expansion. However, efforts must be undertaken to reduce implant exposure and buccal bone resorption.

Urban expansion and its impact on urban agriculture – remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley – Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel-oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwellers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural, coupled with formal as well as infor-mal urbanization are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A multitemporal multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualize the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the South of Dar es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analyzed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in-terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualize an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analyzed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob-served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.

Bone loss after ridge expansion with or without reflection of the periosteum.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the role of the periosteum in preserving the buccal bone after ridge splitting and expansion with simultaneous implant placement. MATERIAL AND METHODS In 12 miniature pigs, the mandibular premolars and first molars were removed together with the interdental bone septa and the buccal bone. Three months later, ridge splitting and expansion of the buccal plate was performed with simultaneous placement of two titanium implants per quadrant. Access by a mucosal flap (MF) was prepared on test sides, while a mucoperiosteal flap (MPF) with complete denudation of the buccal bone was increased on control sides. After healing periods of six and 12 weeks, the animals were sacrificed for histologic and histometric evaluation. RESULTS In the MF group, all 16 implants were osseointegrated, while in the MPF group, four of 16 implants were lost. Noticeable differences of bone levels on the implant surface and of the bone crest (BC) were found between the MF and the MPF group. Buccally after 6 weeks, the median distance between the implant shoulder (IS) and the coronal-most bone on the implant (cBIC) was for the MF group -1.42 ± 0.42 mm and for the MPF group -4.80 ± 2.72 mm (P = 0.15). The median distance between the IS and the buccal BC was -1.24 ± 0.51 mm and -2.78 ± 1.98 mm (P = 0.12) for the MF and MPF group, respectively. After 12 weeks, median IS-cBIC was -2.12 ± 0.84 mm for MF and -7.19 mm for MPF, while IS-BC was -2.08 ± 0.79 mm for MF and -5.96 mm for MPF. After 6 weeks, the median buccal bone thickness for MF and MPF was 0.01 and 0 mm (P < 0.001) at IS, 1.48 ± 0.97 mm and 0 ± 0.77 mm (P = 0.07) at 2 mm apical to IS, and 2.12 ± 1.19 mm and 1.72 ± 01.50 mm (P = 0.86) at 4 mm apical to IS, respectively. After 12 weeks, buccal bone thickness in the MF group was 0 mm at IS, 0.21 mm at 2 mm apical to IS, and 2.56 mm at 4 mm apical to IS, whereas complete loss of buccal bone was measured from IS to 4 mm apical to IS for the MPF group. CONCLUSIONS In this ridge expansion model in miniature pigs, buccal bone volume was significantly better preserved when the periosteum remained attached to the bone.

A full pedigree based method for the statistical assessment of genetic anticipation

Genetic anticipation is defined as a decrease in age of onset or increase in severity as the disorder is transmitted through subsequent generations. Anticipation has been noted in the literature for over a century. Recently, anticipation in several diseases including Huntington's Disease, Myotonic Dystrophy and Fragile X Syndrome were shown to be caused by expansion of triplet repeats. Anticipation effects have also been observed in numerous mental disorders (e.g. Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder), cancers (Li-Fraumeni Syndrome, Leukemia) and other complex diseases. ^ Several statistical methods have been applied to determine whether anticipation is a true phenomenon in a particular disorder, including standard statistical tests and newly developed affected parent/affected child pair methods. These methods have been shown to be inappropriate for assessing anticipation for a variety of reasons, including familial correlation and low power. Therefore, we have developed family-based likelihood modeling approaches to model the underlying transmission of the disease gene and penetrance function and hence detect anticipation. These methods can be applied in extended families, thus improving the power to detect anticipation compared with existing methods based only upon parents and children. The first method we have proposed is based on the regressive logistic hazard model. This approach models anticipation by a generational covariate. The second method allows alleles to mutate as they are transmitted from parents to offspring and is appropriate for modeling the known triplet repeat diseases in which the disease alleles can become more deleterious as they are transmitted across generations. ^ To evaluate the new methods, we performed extensive simulation studies for data simulated under different conditions to evaluate the effectiveness of the algorithms to detect genetic anticipation. Results from analysis by the first method yielded empirical power greater than 87% based on the 5% type I error critical value identified in each simulation depending on the method of data generation and current age criteria. Analysis by the second method was not possible due to the current formulation of the software. The application of this method to Huntington's Disease and Li-Fraumeni Syndrome data sets revealed evidence for a generation effect in both cases. ^

Adolescent Pregnancy Prevention in San Jose, Costa Rica : Assessment of an Educational Intervention

This thesis explores adolescent pregnancy in San Jose, Costa Rica and examines a school-based pregnancy prevention intervention. The relationships between school, gender and risk of adolescent pregnancy are also analyzed, and recommendations are made for effective pregnancy prevention programming. The Purral region of Guadalupe on the outskirts of San Jose, Costa Rica, suffers a higher rate of adolescent pregnancy compared to the rest of the country. In response to this problem, the International Health Central American Institute (IHCAI) implemented a sexual health education program in two local secondary schools in 2006. Very little information about the program is available. It is known that the program was initially evaluated through assessments of the participants’ knowledge before and after the educational sessions. There was no evaluation of the youth attitudes or behaviors, adolescent pregnancies, or long-term impact. The author worked with IHCAI in San Jose, Costa Rica to perform an assessment of the longer term effects of this sexual health education program. They developed a questionnaire to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors surrounding sexual health of youth in the Purral community. Researchers at IHCAI later used this survey to collect data from adolescents who had participated in the educational intervention and those who had not. This thesis analyzes the data collected by IHCAI to assess the effectiveness of the - 2 - educational intervention and the influence of other factors on the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors of adolescents in the Purral region. The thesis begins with an overview of adolescent pregnancy, Costa Rica and the Purral region, and a description of the education intervention implemented by IHCAI. The research goal, logic model, and methods are then described. The results are reported, and the thesis then concludes with discussion of the results as well as study limitations and recommendations for future research and intervention. This thesis will be used to guide IHCAI’s continuation and expansion of adolescent pregnancy prevention programming.