Differential Evolution approach and parameter estimation of chaotic

Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.

Estimation of Fetal Weight during Labor: Still a Challenge

Objective To evaluate the accuracy of fetal weight prediction by ultrasonography labor employing a formula including the linear measurements of femur length (FL) and mid-thigh soft-tissue thickness (STT). Methods We conducted a prospective study involving singleton uncomplicated term pregnancies within 48 hours of delivery. Only pregnancies with a cephalic fetus admitted in the labor ward for elective cesarean section, induction of labor or spontaneous labor were included. We excluded all non-Caucasian women, the ones previously diagnosed with gestational diabetes and the ones with evidence of ruptured membranes. Fetal weight estimates were calculated using a previously proposed formula [estimated fetal weight = [1] 1687.47 + (54.1 x FL) + (76.68 x STT). The relationship between actual birth weight and estimated fetal weight was analyzed using Pearson's correlation. The formula's performance was assessed by calculating the signed and absolute errors. Mean weight difference and signed percentage error were calculated for birth weight divided into three subgroups: < 3000 g; 3000-4000g; and > 4000 g. Results We included for analysis 145 cases and found a significant, yet low, linear relationship between birth weight and estimated fetal weight (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.197) with an absolute mean error of 10.6%. The lowest mean percentage error (0.3%) corresponded to the subgroup with birth weight between 3000 g and 4000 g. Conclusions This study demonstrates a poor correlation between actual birth weight and the estimated fetal weight using a formula based on femur length and mid-thigh soft-tissue thickness, both linear parameters. Although avoidance of circumferential ultrasound measurements might prove to be beneficial, it is still yet to be found a fetal estimation formula that can be both accurate and simple to perform.

Inverse convection problem of simultaneous estimation of two boundary heat fluxes in parallel plate channels

This paper deals with the use of the conjugate gradient method of function estimation for the simultaneous identification of two unknown boundary heat fluxes in parallel plate channels. The fluid flow is assumed to be laminar and hydrodynamically developed. Temperature measurements taken inside the channel are used in the inverse analysis. The accuracy of the present solution approach is examined by using simulated measurements containing random errors, for strict cases involving functional forms with discontinuities and sharp-corners for the unknown functions. Three different types of inverse problems are addressed in the paper, involving the estimation of: (i) Spatially dependent heat fluxes; (ii) Time-dependent heat fluxes; and (iii) Time and spatially dependent heat fluxes.

Probabilistic position and orientation estimation of rigid objects using an RGB-D sensor

The recent emergence of low-cost RGB-D sensors has brought new opportunities for robotics by providing affordable devices that can provide synchronized images with both color and depth information. In this thesis, recent work on pose estimation utilizing RGBD sensors is reviewed. Also, a pose recognition system for rigid objects using RGB-D data is implemented. The implementation uses half-edge primitives extracted from the RGB-D images for pose estimation. The system is based on the probabilistic object representation framework by Detry et al., which utilizes Nonparametric Belief Propagation for pose inference. Experiments are performed on household objects to evaluate the performance and robustness of the system.

Modeling and Parameter Estimation of Double-Star Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines

The power rating of wind turbines is constantly increasing; however, keeping the voltage rating at the low-voltage level results in high kilo-ampere currents. An alternative for increasing the power levels without raising the voltage level is provided by multiphase machines. Multiphase machines are used for instance in ship propulsion systems, aerospace applications, electric vehicles, and in other high-power applications including wind energy conversion systems. A machine model in an appropriate reference frame is required in order to design an efficient control for the electric drive. Modeling of multiphase machines poses a challenge because of the mutual couplings between the phases. Mutual couplings degrade the drive performance unless they are properly considered. In certain multiphase machines there is also a problem of high current harmonics, which are easily generated because of the small current path impedance of the harmonic components. However, multiphase machines provide special characteristics compared with the three-phase counterparts: Multiphase machines have a better fault tolerance, and are thus more robust. In addition, the controlled power can be divided among more inverter legs by increasing the number of phases. Moreover, the torque pulsation can be decreased and the harmonic frequency of the torque ripple increased by an appropriate multiphase configuration. By increasing the number of phases it is also possible to obtain more torque per RMS ampere for the same volume, and thus, increase the power density. In this doctoral thesis, a decoupled d–q model of double-star permanent-magnet (PM) synchronous machines is derived based on the inductance matrix diagonalization. The double-star machine is a special type of multiphase machines. Its armature consists of two three-phase winding sets, which are commonly displaced by 30 electrical degrees. In this study, the displacement angle between the sets is considered a parameter. The diagonalization of the inductance matrix results in a simplified model structure, in which the mutual couplings between the reference frames are eliminated. Moreover, the current harmonics are mapped into a reference frame, in which they can be easily controlled. The work also presents methods to determine the machine inductances by a finite-element analysis and by voltage-source inverters on-site. The derived model is validated by experimental results obtained with an example double-star interior PM (IPM) synchronous machine having the sets displaced by 30 electrical degrees. The derived transformation, and consequently, the decoupled d–q machine model, are shown to model the behavior of an actual machine with an acceptable accuracy. Thus, the proposed model is suitable to be used for the model-based control design of electric drives consisting of double-star IPM synchronous machines.

Estimation of weed dry biomass and grain yield as a function of growth and yield traits under allelopathic weed management in maize

Growing concerns about toxicity and development of resistance against synthetic herbicides have demanded looking for alternative weed management approaches. Allelopathy has gained sufficient support and potential for sustainable weed management. Aqueous extracts of six plant species (sunflower, rice, mulberry, maize, brassica and sorghum) in different combinations alone or in mixture with 75% reduced dose of herbicides were evaluated for two consecutive years under field conditions. A weedy check and S-metolachlor with atrazine (pre emergence) and atrazine alone (post emergence) at recommended rates was included for comparison. Weed dynamics, maize growth indices and yield estimation were done by following standard procedures. All aqueous plant extract combinations suppressed weed growth and biomass. Moreover, the suppressive effect was more pronounced when aqueous plant extracts were supplemented with reduced doses of herbicides. Brassica-sunflower-sorghum combination suppressed weeds by 74-80, 78-70, 65-68% during both years of study that was similar with S-metolachlor along half dose of atrazine and full dose of atrazine alone. Crop growth rate and dry matter accumulation attained peak values of 32.68 and 1,502 g m-2 d-1 for brassica-sunflower-sorghum combination at 60 and 75 days after sowing. Curve fitting regression for growth and yield traits predicted strong positive correlation to grain yield and negative correlation to weed dry biomass under allelopathic weed management in maize crop.

Diurnal variations of non-structural carbohydrates in vegetative tissues of Melinis minutiflora, Echinolaena inflexa and Lolium multiflorum (Poaceae)

Echinolaena inflexa (Poir.) Chase is a native C3 grass species with high biomass production and abundance in the cerrado comparable to Melinis minutiflora Beauv., a C4 forage grass of African origin, widespread in the cerrado, displacing some native herbaceous species. These species accumulate mainly starch, differently of Lolium multiflorum Lam. ssp. italicum Beck cv. Lema (ryegrass), a C3 temperate forage grass that accumulates fructans as the major storage carbohydrate in the vegetative tissues. In the present study, we analyzed diurnal variations in the content and composition of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in the aerial vegetative parts of the three species. Results showed similarity in water-soluble carbohydrates (WSC) and starch contents between Melinis minutiflora and Echinolaena inflexa, with the exotic grass accumulating higher amounts of NSC. However, the levels of sucrose, glucose and fructose were 10 fold higher in Lolium multiflorum, that accumulates fructan as the main storage carbohydrate. Although the contents of WSC and starch were similar in the tropical species E. inflexa and M. minutiflora, their diurnal variations were different and could be related to starch metabolism, especially in M. minutiflora.

Comparison study of two competing models of an all mechanical power transmission system

A comparison between two competing models of an all mechanical power transmission system is studied by using Dymola –software as the simulation tool. This tool is compared with Matlab/ Simulink –software by using functionality, user-friendliness and price as comparison criteria. In this research we assume that the torque is balanceable and transmission ratios are calculated. Using kinematic connection sketches of the two transmission models, simulation models are built into the Dymola simulation environment. Models of transmission systems are modified according to simulation results to achieve a continuous variable transmission ratio. Simulation results are compared between the two transmission systems. The main features of Dymola and MATLAB/ Simulink are compared. Advantages and disadvantages of the two softwares are analyzed and compared.

A simple model for the estimation of congenital malformation frequency in racially mixed populations

A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

Cardiorespiratory adaptations induced by aerobic training in middle-aged men: the importance of a decrease in sympathetic stimulation for the contribution of dynamic exercise tachycardia

We investigated the effects of aerobic training on the efferent autonomic control of heart rate (HR) during dynamic exercise in middle-aged men, eight of whom underwent exercise training (T) while the other seven continued their sedentary (S) life style. The training was conducted over 10 months (three 1-h sessions/week on a field track at 70-85% of the peak HR). The contribution of sympathetic and parasympathetic exercise tachycardia was determined in terms of differences in the time constant effects on the HR response obtained using a discontinuous protocol (4-min tests at 25, 50, 100 and 125 watts on a cycle ergometer), and a continuous protocol (25 watts/min until exhaustion) allowed the quantification of the parameters (anaerobic threshold, VO2 AT; peak O2 uptake, VO2 peak; power peak) that reflect oxygen transport. The results obtained for the S and the T groups were: 1) a smaller resting HR in T (66 beats/min) when compared to S (84 beats/min); 2) during exercise, a small increase in the fast tachycardia (D0-10 s) related to vagal withdrawal (P<0.05, only at 25 watts) was observed in T at all powers; at middle and higher powers a significant decrease (P<0.05 at 50, 100 and 125 watts) in the slow tachycardia (D1-4 min) related to a sympathetic-dependent mechanism was observed in T; 3) the VO2 AT (S = 1.06 and T = 1.33 l/min) and VO2 peak (S = 1.97 and T = 2.47 l/min) were higher in T (P<0.05). These results demonstrate that aerobic training can induce significant physiological adaptations in middle-aged men, mainly expressed as a decrease in the sympathetic effects on heart rate associated with an increase in oxygen transport during dynamic exercise.

A priori estimation of accuracy and of the number of wells to be employed in limiting dilution assays

The use of limiting dilution assay (LDA) for assessing the frequency of responders in a cell population is a method extensively used by immunologists. A series of studies addressing the statistical method of choice in an LDA have been published. However, none of these studies has addressed the point of how many wells should be employed in a given assay. The objective of this study was to demonstrate how a researcher can predict the number of wells that should be employed in order to obtain results with a given accuracy, and, therefore, to help in choosing a better experimental design to fulfill one's expectations. We present the rationale underlying the expected relative error computation based on simple binomial distributions. A series of simulated in machina experiments were performed to test the validity of the a priori computation of expected errors, thus confirming the predictions. The step-by-step procedure of the relative error estimation is given. We also discuss the constraints under which an LDA must be performed.

Future of Newspaper Business Models in Finland

The purpose of this Master’s thesis was to study the business model development in Finnish newspaper industry during the next then years through scenario planning. The objective was to see how will the business models develop amidst the many changes in the industry, what factors are affecting the change, what are the implications of these changes for the players in the industry and how should the Finnish newspaper companies evolve in order to succeed in the future. In this thesis the business model change is studied based on all the elements of business models, as it was discovered that the industry is too often focusing on changes in only few of those elements and a more broader view can provide valuable information for the companies. The results revealed that the industry is affected by many changes during the next ten years. Scenario planning provides a good tool for analyzing this change and for developing valuable options for businesses. After conducting series of interviews and discovering forces affecting the change, four different scenarios were developed centered on the role that newspaper will take and the level at which they are providing the content in the future. These scenarios indicated that there are varieties of options in the way the business models may develop and that companies should start making decisions proactively in order to succeed. As the business model elements are interdepended, changes made in the other elements will affect the whole model, making these decisions about the role and level of content important for the companies. In the future, it is likely that the Finnish newspaper industry will include many different kinds of business models, some of which can be drastically different from the current ones and some of which can still be similar, but take better into account the new kind of media environment.

The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

Numerical Studies of Dark Energy Models and Observations

The cosmological standard view is based on the assumptions of homogeneity, isotropy and general relativistic gravitational interaction. These alone are not sufficient for describing the current cosmological observations of accelerated expansion of space. Although general relativity is extremely accurately tested to describe the local gravitational phenomena, there is a strong demand for modifying either the energy content of the universe or the gravitational interaction itself to account for the accelerated expansion. By adding a non-luminous matter component and a constant energy component with negative pressure, the observations can be explained with general relativity. Gravitation, cosmological models and their observational phenomenology are discussed in this thesis. Several classes of dark energy models that are motivated by theories outside the standard formulation of physics were studied with emphasis on the observational interpretation. All the cosmological models that seek to explain the cosmological observations, must also conform to the local phenomena. This poses stringent conditions for the physically viable cosmological models. Predictions from a supergravity quintessence model was compared to Supernova 1a data and several metric gravity models were studied with local experimental results. Polytropic stellar configurations of solar, white dwarf and neutron stars were numerically studied with modified gravity models. The main interest was to study the spacetime around the stars. The results shed light on the viability of the studied cosmological models.

Evaluation of two experimental models of hepatic encephalopathy in rats

The serious neuropsychological repercussions of hepatic encephalopathy have led to the creation of several experimental models in order to better understand the pathogenesis of the disease. In the present investigation, two possible causes of hepatic encephalopathy, cholestasis and portal hypertension, were chosen to study the behavioral impairments caused by the disease using an object recognition task. This working memory test is based on a paradigm of spontaneous delayed non-matching to sample and was performed 60 days after surgery. Male Wistar rats (225-250 g) were divided into three groups: two experimental groups, microsurgical cholestasis (N = 20) and extrahepatic portal hypertension (N = 20), and a control group (N = 20). A mild alteration of the recognition memory occurred in rats with cholestasis compared to control rats and portal hypertensive rats. The latter group showed the poorest performance on the basis of the behavioral indexes tested. In particular, only the control group spent significantly more time exploring novel objects compared to familiar ones (P < 0.001). In addition, the portal hypertension group spent the shortest time exploring both the novel and familiar objects (P < 0.001). These results suggest that the existence of portosystemic collateral circulation per se may be responsible for subclinical encephalopathy.