Un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial basado en variables financieras. Su aplicación al caso textil catalán (1994-1997)

En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. Partiendo del modelo de flexibilidad financiera de Donaldson, que es adaptado por Van Frederikslust a la predicción de la insolvencia, lo que aquí se expone es una aplicación a una muestra de empresas de los sectores textil y confección. Aunque los resultados no son alentadores, lo más importante es destacar cómo a través de una modelización de este tipo, probamos una formulación teórica del problema.

Classification models for neurocognitive impairment in HIV infection based on demographic and clinical variables

Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

Influence of transport and time on blood variables commonly measured for the athlete biological passport.

Some recent studies have characterized the stability of blood variables commonly measured for the Athlete Biological Passport. The aim of this study was to characterize the impact of different shipments conditions and the quality of the results returned by the haematological analyzer. Twenty-two healthy male subjects provided five EDTA tubes each. Four shipment conditions (24, 36, 48, 72 h) under refrigerated conditions were tested and compared to a set of samples left in the laboratory also under refrigerated conditions (group control). All measurements were conducted using two Sysmex XT-2000i analyzers. Haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes percentage, and OFF-score numerical data were the same for samples analyzed just after collection and after a shipment under refrigerated conditions up to 72 h. Detailed information reported especially by the differential (DIFF) channel scatterplot of the Sysmex XT-2000i indicated that there were signs of blood deterioration, but were not of relevance for the variables used in the Athlete Biological Passport. As long as the cold chain is guaranteed, the time delay between the collection and the analyses of blood variables can be extended. Copyright© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variables que incideixen en el coneixement de català i castellà de l'alumnat estranger a Catalunya: un estudi amb alumnat de sisè de primària

El domini de la llengua escolar apareix en totes les polítiques educatives com el tema central a través del qual s’ha d’incidir per garantir la igualtat i la cohesió social, ja que l’èxit escolar passa per desenvolupar una bona competència en la llengua vehicular de l’ensenyament (OECD 2008). A Catalunya, tot i els esforços destinats, els resultats lingüístics de l’alumnat estranger continuen essent molt més baixos que els de l’alumnat nacional (Consell Superior d’Avaluació del Sistema Educatiu 2009). No obstant això, hi ha molt pocs estudis que hagin analitzat els factors que s’amaguen darrere dels resultats lingüístics de l’alumnat estranger. Amb aquest objectiu en ment, l’article presenta les dades d’una recerca que pretén aprofundir les variables que incideixen en el coneixement de català i castellà escrit de l’alumnat estranger escolaritzat en 57 escoles de primària repartides pel territori de Catalunya

Population-based incidence of myeloid malignancies: fifteen years of epidemiological data in the province of Girona, Spain

Myeloid malignancies (MMs) are a heterogeneous group of hematologic malignancies presenting different incidence, prognosis and survival.1–3 Changing classifications (FAB 1994, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008) and few available epidemiological data complicate incidence comparisons.4,5 Taking this into account, the aims of the present study were: a) to calculate the incidence rates and trends of MMs in the Province of Girona, northeastern Spain, between 1994 and 2008 according to the WHO 2001 classification; and b) to predict the number of MMs cases in Spain during 2013. Data were extracted from the population-based Girona Cancer Registry (GCR) located in the north-east of Catalonia, Spain, and covering a population of 731,864 inhabitants (2008 census). Cases were registered according to the rules of the European Network for Cancer Registries and the Manual for Coding and Reporting Haematological Malignancies (HAEMACARE project). To ensure the complete coverage of MMs in the GCR, and especially myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), a retrospective search was performed. The ICD-O-2 (1990) codes were converted into their corresponding ICD-O-3 (2000) codes, including MDS, polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) as malignant diseases. Results of crude rate (CR) and European standardized incidence rate (ASRE) were expressed per 100,000 inhabitants/year

Epidemiological studies of childhood and adolescence headache

The main purpose of this study was to examine the changes in the prevalence, incidence, and characteristics of headache in childhood and adolescence. In addition, the predictors of the change in the occurrence of childhood headache and the association between adolescent headache and behavior were studied. The occurrence and characteristics of headache were investigated as part of a prospective follow-up study, where 6-year-old children and their families (n=1132) were followed to the age of 12-years (n=1126). The study design entailed both a cohort and case-control group. The incidence of headache and the association between headache and behavior were studied in another cohort, consisting of 11-year-old twins (n=5393), who were followed to the age of 17 (n=4159). The prevalence rates of headache increased during the follow-up, especially in boys whose mothers suffered from frequent headache. The incidence rates of frequent headache changed the most in girls between ages of 11 and 14. Early-onset migraine and tension-type headache were equal predictors of migraine at age 12. The age-related changes observed in pain localization, concurrent symptoms and triggers were considerable. Headache frequency was significantly associated with externalizing and internalizing problem behaviors and adaptive behaviors as rated by parents, but only with externalizing problem behaviors as rated by teachers. Headache both in children and adolescents is characterized by its changing nature. Its prevention and treatment should take familial, environmental and psychosocial aspects into account.

Caracterització del temps de vol en relació amb variables biomecàniques de l’estirada en l’arrencada d’halterofília

L’objecte del present estudi és caracteritzar el temps de vol (Tv) de la fase aèria en l’exercici d’arrencada en halterofília. Es descriu el seu comportament en funció de l’increment progressiu de la càrrega i en relació a variables biomecàniques de l’estirada, així com la seva evolució en un cicle d’entrenament. Es va fer un test màxim de càrregues progressives amb set halterofilistes (n = 7) de competició. Mitjançant els sistemes de valoració Musclelab i Chronojump es van registrar els valors de: força (F), potència (P), velocitat (V), pic de velocitat (pV) i alçada relativa (Hrel ) de la barra en l’estirada, al costat del Tv del desplaçament dels peus de l’aixecador a l’entrada sota la barra. Es va observar una moderada correlació negativa (r = –0,561; p < 0,01) entre el Tv i la càrrega màxima del test (%1RMT). No es van trobar correlacions significatives per al Tv respecte a la resta de variables analitzades. El Tv disminuïa amb l’increment de la càrrega en rangs submàxims, i era de natura aleatòria amb l’ocupació de càrregues màximes. En un subgrup de la mostra (n = 4) es van valorar les mateixes variables passades vuit setmanes. El Tv, la Pmàx i el pV suggereixen ser variables suficientment sensibles per monitoritzar els canvis generats per l’entrenament en vuit setmanes, encara que la reduïda dimensió mostral no va permetre aconseguir diferències significatives. Aquests resultats destaquen la possibilitat de considerar el Tv i la P com a mesures de control en l’entrenament d’halterofilistes, preferentment en l’ús de càrregues submàximes.

Simple sugar intake and hepatocellular carcinoma: epidemiological and mechanistic insight

Sugar intake has dramatically increased during the last few decades. Specifically, there has been a clear trend towards higher consumption of fructose and high fructose corn syrup, which are the most common added sugars in processed food, soft drinks and other sweetened beverages. Although still controversial, this rising trend in simple sugar consumption has been positively associated with weight gain and obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Interestingly, all of these metabolic alterations have also been related to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. The purpose of this review is to discuss the evidence coming from epidemiological studies and data from animal models relating the consumption of simple sugars, and specifically fructose, with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and to gain insight into the putative molecular mechanisms involved.

Comparación de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de coeficientes fijos frente a variables en los modelos econométricos regionales: un análisis para Cataluña

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un creciente interés en nuestro país en relación a las economías regionales dada la necesidad de los gobiernos regionales de obtener información sobre sus economías para así llevar a cabo actuaciones de política económica más efectivas y eficientes. En este marco, los modelos econométricos constituyen una herramienta de utilidad puesto que ofrecen información sobre las relaciones estructurales que se dan en una economía y permiten predecir su evolución. Sin embargo, la utilización de dichos modelos con finalidad predictiva se enfrenta al inconveniente de la elevada inestabilidad a corto plazo que se produce en las relaciones entre variables económicas a nivel regional. Por este motivo, en el presente trabajo se propone la utilización de un modelo de coeficientes variables para recoger dicha inestabilidad y mejorar las predicciones sobre la evolución de las variables del bloque de producción de la economía catalana. Para contrastar la mejora obtenida a partir de la aplicación de dicho modelo, se compara su capacidad predictiva con la de un modelo de coeficientes fijos. Los resultados muestran un mejor comportamiento del modelo de coeficientes variables frente al modelo de coeficientes fijos.

Revisió de la recerca educativa sobre les variables explicatives del rendiment acadèmic:Apunts per a l'ús del criteri de "modificabilitat pedagògica" de les variables.

La conceptualització del concepte de rendiment acadèmic ha variat al llarg de lahistòria des de definicions que es basaven en un únic criteri fins a les més actuals concepcionsmultidimensionals. Aquestes darreres apareixen com a resultat del desenvolupamentd'aquest concepte, paral.lel a l'evolució històrica d'un fenomen més ampli:el fracàs escolar

Prevalencia de la sintomatología del Síndrome de Asperger y variables asociadas en preescolares españoles

Asperger’s Syndrome (AS) forms part of the whole spectrum of autistic disorders. Until recently it has not been studied in early ages. The aim of this study is to determine the AS’s prevalence of symptoms in general preschool, rural and urban population. In addition, the association of the development areas and symptoms of anxiety and the presence of symptoms of AS was analized. The sample ofthis study consisted in 1104 preschool children between 3-6 years old. The presence of AS’s symptoms was evaluated by a screening tool for psychiatric disorders. This tool was applied to both, preschooler’s parents and their teachers The prevalence of symptoms of AS for parents and teachers was 11.7‰ and 8.1‰, respectively. The presence of AS’s symptoms was associated with language compression delays, general and fine motor coordination, self-help skills and impairment in game activities. In addition, our results showed that the AS has a strong association with specific phobia symptoms and tics. We conclude that an early detection of AS’s symptoms is possible since we found similar prevalence described in other recent researches. Given the impairment associated with AS, its detection is highly recommended

Variables cognitivas y metacognitivas en la resolución de problemas de química: propuesta de estrategias didácticas

This paper presents and classifies the cognitive and metacognitive variables involved in the processes that students execute in problem solving. Moreover, it shows how these variables affect the students success in problem solving. These variables are classified in: piagetian and neo-piagetian, representational, metacognitive and transfer of learning. In the first group of variables it is discussed formal reasoning ability and other neo-piagetian factors. In the second group of variables it is analysed mental models and external representations. Implications for chemistry education are collected as a proposal of didactic strategies in the classroom.

Ecological and Epidemiological Analyses of Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Rate

The underlying cause of many human autoimmune diseases is unknown, but several environmental factors are implicated in triggering the self-destructive immune reactions. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, potentially leading to persistent neurological deterioration. The cause of MS is not known, and apart from immunomodulatory treatments there is no cure. In the early phase of the disease, relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) is characterized by unpredictable exacerbations of the neurological symptoms called relapses, which can occur at different intervals ranging from 4 weeks to several years. Microbial infections are known to be able to trigger MS relapses, and the patients are instructed to avoid all factors that might increase the risk of infections and to properly use antibiotics as well as to take care of dental hygiene. Among those environmental factors which are known to increase susceptibility to infections, high ambient air inhalable particulate matter levels affect all people within a geographical region. During the period of interest in this thesis, the occurrence of MS relapses could be effectively reduced by injections of interferon, which has immunomodulatory and antiviral properties. In this thesis, ecological and epidemiological analyses were used to study the possible connection between MS relapse occurrence, population level viral infections and air quality factors, as well as the effects of interferon medication. Hospital archive data were collected retrospectively from 1986-2001, a period in time ranging from when interferon medication first became available until just before other disease-modifying MS therapies arrived on the market. The grouped data were studied with logistic regression and intervention analysis, and individual patient data with survival analysis. Interferons proved to be effective in the treatment of MS in this observational study, as the amount of MS exacerbations was lower during interferon use as compared to the time before interferon treatment. A statistically significant temporal relationship between MS relapses and inhalable particular matter (PM₁₀) concentrations was found in this study, which implies that MS patients are affected by the exposure to PM₁₀. Interferon probably protected against the effect of PM₁₀, because a significant increase in the risk of exacerbations was only observed in MS patients without interferon medication following environmental exposure to population level specific viral infections and PM₁₀. Apart from being antiviral, interferon could thus also attenuate the enhancement of immune reactions caused by ambient air PM₁₀. The retrospective approach utilizing carefully constructed hospital records proved to be an economical and reliable source of MS disease information for statistical analyses.

Least squares regression with errors in both variables: case studies

Analytical curves are normally obtained from discrete data by least squares regression. The least squares regression of data involving significant error in both x and y values should not be implemented by ordinary least squares (OLS). In this work, the use of orthogonal distance regression (ODR) is discussed as an alternative approach in order to take into account the error in the x variable. Four examples are presented to illustrate deviation between the results from both regression methods. The examples studied show that, in some situations, ODR coefficients must substitute for those of OLS, and, in other situations, the difference is not significant.