Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Solutions of the fully compressible semi-geostrophic system

The fully compressible semi-geostrophic system is widely used in the modelling of large-scale atmospheric flows. In this paper, we prove rigorously the existence of weak Lagrangian solutions of this system, formulated in the original physical coordinates. In addition, we provide an alternative proof of the earlier result on the existence of weak solutions of this system expressed in the so-called geostrophic, or dual, coordinates. The proofs are based on the optimal transport formulation of the problem and on recent general results concerning transport problems posed in the Wasserstein space of probability measures.

High density lipoprotein: guardian of the vascular system?

The role of low-density lipoprotein in the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) is well recognised. There is also growing evidence that high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is a powerful inverse predictor for premature CHD and that maintaining a high HDL-C level may guard against atherosclerosis. Patients with low HDL-C levels often also have central obesity, insulin resistance and other features of the metabolic syndrome. This syndrome is both increasingly common and strongly implicated in the growing worldwide epidemic of type 2 diabetes. HDL-C may be increased by lifestyle changes, e.g. weight loss, physical activity and smoking cessation. Pharmacological agents such as fibrates, niacin and statins have also been shown significantly to elevate HDL-C. Although current guidelines are beginning to recognise the protective role of HDL-C level in preventing coronary events, HDL-C should be adopted soon as a target for intervention in its own right.

The interaction between the physical environments and people

Buildings affect people in various ways. They can help us to work more effectively; they also present a wide range of stimuli for our senses to react to. Intelligent buildings are designed to be aesthetic in sensory terms not just visually appealing but ones in which occupants experience delight, freshness, airiness, daylight, views out and social ambience. All these factors contribute to a general aesthetic which gives pleasure and affects one’s mood. If there is to be a common vision, it is essential for architects, engineers and clients to work closely together throughout the planning, design, construction and operational stages which represent the conception, birth and life of the building. There has to be an understanding of how patterns of work are best suited to a particular building form served by appropriate environmental systems. A host of technologies are emerging that help these processes, but in the end it is how we think about achieving responsive buildings that matters. Intelligent buildings should cope with social and technological changes and also be adaptable to short-term and long-term human needs. We live through our senses. They rely on stimulation from the tasks we are focused on; people around us but also the physical environment. We breathe air and its quality affects the olfactory system; temperature is felt by thermoreceptors in the skin; sound enters our ears; the visual scene is beheld by our eyes. All these stimuli are transmitted along the sensory nervous system to the brain for processing from which physiological and psychological reactions and judgments are formed depending on perception, expectancies and past experiences. It is clear that the environmental setting plays a role in this sensory process. This is the essence of sensory design. Space plays its part as well. The flow of communication is partly electronic but also largely by people meeting face to face. Our sense of space wants different things at different times. Sometimes privacy but other times social needs have to be satisfied besides the organizational requirement to have effective human communications throughout the building. In general if the senses are satisfied people feel better and work better.

Validation of the NANA (Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Ageing) touch screen system for use at home by older adults

Prospective measurement of nutrition, cognition, and physical activity in later life would facilitate early detection of detrimental change and early intervention but is hard to achieve in community settings. Technology can simplify the task and facilitate daily data collection. The Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Ageing (NANA) toolkit was developed to provide a holistic picture of an individual's function including diet, cognition and activity levels. This study aimed to validate the NANA toolkit for data collection in the community. Forty participants aged 65 years and over trialled the NANA toolkit in their homes for three 7-day periods at four-week intervals. Data collected using the NANA toolkit were compared with standard measures of diet (four-day food diary), cognitive ability (processing speed) and physical activity (self-report). Bland–Altman analysis of dietary intake (energy, carbohydrates, protein fat) found a good relationship with the food diary and cognitive processing speed and physical activity (hours) were significantly correlated with their standard counterparts. The NANA toolkit enables daily reporting of data that would otherwise be collected sporadically while reducing demands on participants; older adults can complete the daily reporting at home without a researcher being present; and it enables prospective investigation of several domains at once

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Atmospheric electrification in dusty, reactive gases in the solar system and beyond

Detailed observations of the solar system planets reveal a wide variety of local atmospheric conditions. Astronomical observations have revealed a variety of extrasolar planets none of which resembles any of the solar system planets in full. Instead, the most massive amongst the extrasolar planets, the gas giants, appear very similar to the class of (young) Brown Dwarfs which are amongst the oldest objects in the universe. Despite of this diversity, solar system planets, extrasolar planets and Brown Dwarfs have broadly similar global temperatures between 300K and 2500K. In consequence, clouds of different chemical species form in their atmospheres. While the details of these clouds differ, the fundamental physical processes are the same. Further to this, all these objects were observed to produce radio and X-ray emission. While both kinds of radiation are well studied on Earth and to a lesser extent on the solar system planets, the occurrence of emission that potentially originate from accelerated electrons on Brown Dwarfs, extrasolar planets and protoplanetary disks is not well understood yet. This paper offers an interdisciplinary view on electrification processes and their feedback on their hosting environment in meteorology, volcanology, planetology and research on extrasolar planets and planet formation.

Dielectric properties and physical features of phosphate glasses containing iron oxide

Microwave techniques were applied to the study of dielectric properties of phosphate glasses on the basis of contributions from permanent and induced dipolar polarization of local structural units interacting with the electrical component of the electromagnetic radiation. The dielectric constant of the selected glass system (100-x)(50P(2)O(5)center dot 25Li(2)O center dot 25Na(2)O)center dot xFe(2)O(3), where 0 <= x <= 21 is in mol%, was measured using a microwave setup assembled to measure the phase shift of the standing wave pattern produced by the insertion of the sample. It is shown that the Fe2+ ions contribute effectively to the dielectric constant, as expected from the interactions of the dipoles of the local charge compensation pairs with the microwave radiation. However, there is the possibility of occurrence of some ions Fe3+, in general, at low iron content, which reinforces the glass structure and, therefore, decreases the dielectric constant. There is a gradual conversion from Fe3+ to Fe2+ as the iron ions increases. This is possibly the reason of the anomaly in the dielectric constant values observed in the results. These assumptions can be checked by results of electronic paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and optical absorption (OA). The dielectric constant of the glasses studied in this work was found to increase with the temperature in the range of 25-330 degrees C. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beneficial Effects of Physical Training on the Cardio-Inflammatory Disorder Induced by Lung Ischemia/Reperfusion in Rats

Our laboratory demonstrated that training program attenuated the inflammatory responses in lung ischemia/reperfusion (IR). Considering the importance of the inflammatory responses on the cardiovascular system, we evaluate the effect of physical training on the vascular responsiveness and its underlying mechanism after lung IR. Male Wistar rats were submitted to run training and lung IR. Concentration-response curves for relaxing and contracting agents were obtained. Protein expressions of SOD-1 and p47(phox), plasma nitritre/nitrate (NO (x) (-) ) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) were evaluated. A decreased in the potency for acetylcholine and phenylephrine associated with an upregulation of the p47(phox) expression were found after Lung IR as well as an increase in IL-6 and NO (x) (-) levels. Run training attenuated the vascular dysfunction that was accompanied by reduction of the p47(phox) protein expression and IL-6 levels. Our findings show the beneficial effect of training on the vascular function that was associated with reduction in inflammatory response in lung IR.

Optimization of the physical refining of sunflower oil concerning the final contents of trans-fatty acids

The final contents of total and individual trans-fatty acids of sunflower oil, produced during the deacidification step of physical refining were obtained using a computational simulation program that considered cis-trans isomerization reaction features for oleic, linoleic, and linolenic acids attached to the glycerol part of triacylglycerols. The impact of process variables, such as temperature and liquid flow rate, and of equipment configuration parameters, such as liquid height, diameter, and number of stages, that influence the retention time of the oil in the equipment was analyzed using the response-surface methodology (RSM). The computational simulation and the RSM results were used in two different optimization methods, aiming to minimize final levels of total and individual trans-fatty acids (trans-FA), while keeping neutral oil loss and final oil acidity at low values. The main goal of this work was to indicate that computational simulation, based on a careful modeling of the reaction system, combined with optimization could be an important tool for indicating better processing conditions in industrial physical refining plants of vegetable oils, concerning trans-FA formation.

Phase behavior of the orange essential oil/sodium bis(2-ethylhexyl)sulfosuccinate/water system

The ternary phase diagram for the orange essential oil (OEO)/sodium bis(2-ethylhexyl)sulfosuccinate (AOT)/water system was constructed at 25 degrees C. It indicates a large single phase region, comprising an isotropic water-in-oil (W/O) microemulsion (ME) phase (L(2)), a liquid crystal (LC) (lamellar or hexagonal) and a large unstable emulsion phase that separates in two phases of normal and reverse micelles (L(1) and L(2)). In this communication the properties of the ME are investigated by viscosity, electric conductivity and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) indicating that the isotropic ME phase exhibits different behaviors depending on composition. At low water content low viscous ""dry"" surfactant structures are formed, whereas at higher water content higher viscous water droplets are formed. The experimental data allow the determination of the transition from ""dry"" to the water droplet structures within the L(2) phase. SAXS analyses have also been performed for selected LC samples. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CASPT2 Study of the Potential Energy Surface of the HSO(2) System

The importance of the HSO(2) system in atmospheric and combustion chemistry has motivated several works dedicated to the study of associated structures and chemical reactions. Nevertheless controversy still exists in connection with the reaction SH + O(2) -> H + SO(2) and also related to the role of the HSOO isomers in the potential energy surface (PES). Here we report high-level ab initio calculation for the electronic ground state of the HSO(2) system. Energetic, geometric, and frequency properties for the major stationary states of the PES are reported at the same level of calculations:,CASPT2/aug-cc-pV(T+d)Z. This study introduces three new stationary points (two saddle points and one minimum). These structures allow the connection of the skewed HSOOs and the HSO(2) minima defining new reaction paths for SH + O(2) -> H + SO(2) and SH + O(2) -> OH + SO. In addition, the location of the HSOO isomers in the reaction pathways have been clarified.

Substitutional Impurities in PPV Crystals: An Intrinsic Donor-Acceptor System for High V(oc) Photovoltaic Devices

Defects are usually present in organic polymer films and are commonly invoked to explain the low efficiency obtained in organic-based optoelectronic devices. We propose that controlled insertion of substitutional impurities may, on the contrary, tune the optoelectronic properties of the underivatized organic material and, in the case studied here, maximize the efficiency of a solar cell. We investigate a specific oxygen-impurity substitution, the keto-defect -(CH(2)-C=O)- in underivatized crystalline poly(p-phenylenevinylene) (PPV), and its impact on the electronic structure of the bulk film, through a combined classical (force-field) and quantum mechanical (DFT) approach. We find defect states which suggest a spontaneous electron hole separation typical of a donor acceptor interface, optimal for photovoltaic devices. Furthermore, the inclusion of oxygen impurities does not introduce defect states in the gap and thus, contrary to standard donor-acceptor systems, should preserve the intrinsic high open circuit voltage (V(oc)) that may be extracted from PPV-based devices.