Testing extreme value copulas to estimate the quantile

Testing weather or not data belongs could been generated by a family of extreme value copulas is difficult. We generalize a test and we prove that it can be applied whatever the alternative hypothesis. We also study the effect of using different extreme value copulas in the context of risk estimation. To measure the risk we use a quantile. Our results have motivated by a bivariate sample of losses from a real database of auto insurance claims. Methods are implemented in R.

Apport du CT-3D dans le diagnostic et le traitement des fractures des plateaux tibiaux [Value of 3D CT in diagnosis and treatment of fractures of the tibial plateau]

A precise classification and an optimal understanding of tibial plateau fractures are the basis of a conservative treatment or adequate surgery. The aim of this prospective study is to determine the contribution of 3D CT to the classification of fractures (comparison with standard X-rays) and as an aid to the surgeon in preoperative planning and surgical reconstruction. Between November 1994 and July 1996, 20 patients presenting 22 tibial plateau fractures were considered in this study. They all underwent surgical treatment. The fractures were classified according to the Müller AO classification. They were all investigated by means of standard X-rays (AP, profile, oblique) and the 3D CT. Analysis of the results has shown the superiority of 3D CT in the planning (easier and more acute), in the classification (more precise), and in the exact assessment of the lesions (quantity of fragments); thereby proving to be of undeniable value of the surgeon.

Caste determination through mating in primitively eusocial societies.

Eusocial animal societies are typified by the presence of a helper (worker) caste which predominantly cares for young offspring in a social group while investing little in their own direct reproduction. A key question is what determines whether an individual becomes a worker or leaves to initiate her own reproduction. In some insects, caste is determined nutritionally during development. In others, and in vertebrate societies, adults are totipotent and the cues that determine caste are less well known. The mate limitation hypothesis (MLH) states that a female's mating status acts as a cue for caste determination: females that mate become reproductives, while those that fail to mate become workers. The MLH is consistent with empirical observations in sweat bees showing that over the course of the nesting season, there are increases in both the proportion of females that become reproductives and the frequency of males in the mating pool. We modelled a foundress's offspring sex-ratio strategy to investigate whether an increasingly male-biased operational sex-ratio over time is evolutionarily stable under the MLH. Our results indicate that such a pattern could occur if early workers were more valuable than late workers. This pattern was then more likely if male mortality was high, if worker mortality was low, if the value of a worker was high and if the period over which workers can help was short. Our results suggest that the MLH can be evolutionarily stable, but only under restrictive conditions. Manipulative experiments are now required to investigate whether mating determines caste in nature.

Stimulus-induced rhythmic, periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest: Characteristics and prognostic value.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the prevalence of stimulus-induced rhythmic, periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) and therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and to examine their potential association with outcome. METHODS: We studied our prospective cohort of adult survivors of CA treated with TH, assessing SIRPIDs occurrence and their association with 3-month outcome. Only univariated analyses were performed. RESULTS: 105 patients with coma after CA who underwent electroencephalogram (EEG) during TH and normothermia (NT) were studied. Fifty-nine patients (56%) survived, and 48 (46%) had good neurological recovery. The prevalence of SIRPIDs was 13.3% (14/105 patients), of whom 6 occurred during TH (all died), and 8 in NT (3 survived, 1 with good neurological outcome); none had SIRPIDs at both time-points. SIRPIDs were associated with discontinuous or non-reactive EEG background and were a robustly related to poor neurological outcome (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: This small series provides preliminary univariate evidence that in patients with coma after CA, SIRPIDs are associated with poor outcome, particularly when occurring during in therapeutic hypothermia. However, survival with good neurological recovery may be observed when SIRPIDs arise in the post-rewarming normothermic phase. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides clinicians with new information regarding the SIRPIDs prognostic role in patients with coma after cardiac arrest.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Tachycardia is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in the value trial

Objective: Tachycardia is associated with hypertension and is a predictor of cardiovascular events. The predictive effect of tachycardia might reflect its connection with hypertension. In this analysis of 15,245 VALUE study patients we explore whether tachycardia predicts cardiovascular endpoints in high risk hypertension and whether the in-trial blood pressure lowering modified the tachycardia - related risk. Methods: Heart rate from ECG readings at baseline and annually throughout the trial. Results: In the Cox Regression analysis the primary endpoint hazard ratio for a 10 beats per minute increment of baseline heart rate was 1.16 (1.12-1.2) p < 0.0001, 1.17 (1.13-1.22) p < 0.0001 and 1.22 (1.18-1.27) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, adjusted for baseline blood pressure and for blood pressure plus risk factors, respectively. Primary endpoints strikingly increased in the highest quintile of baseline heart rate (=/>79 beats). Primary endpoints in the highest heart rate quintile were 30 % higher in first, 55 % in second, 55 % in third, 52 % in fourth and 46 % in the fifth year of the study. The in-trial heart rate was also a potent predictor. The primary endpoint hazard ratios of highest heart rate quintile versus pooled lower 4 quintiles was (1.34-1.66) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p <0.0001 adjusted for baseline blood pressure and risk factors and 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p < 0.0001 further adjusted for in trial pressure. The increase of primary events in the upper quintile of in-trial heart rate was 68% in the group with good and 63% in the group with inadequate blood pressure control (both p < 0.0001 by log rank test). Conclusions: 1./ Tachycardia is a short term marker and a long term predictor of adverse event in high risk hypertension. 2./ Tachycardia contributes to the residual cardiovascular risk regardless of the degree of BP control. We hypothesize heart rate lowering with appropriate drugs may further decrease the cardiovascular risk in patients with high risk hypertension and tachycardia.

The value of intraoperative ultrasound in oblique corpectomy for cervical spondylotic myelopathy and ossified posterior longitudinal ligament.

Intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) has been described to be useful during central corpectomy for compressive cervical myelopathy. This study aimed at documenting the utility of IOUS in oblique cervical corpectomy (OCC). Prospective data from 24 patients undergoing OCC for cervical spondylotic myelopathy and ossified posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) were collected. Patients had a preoperative cervical spine magnetic resonance (MR) image, IOUS and a postoperative cervical CT scan. Retrospective data from 16 historical controls that underwent OCC without IOUS were analysed to compare the incidence of residual compression between the two groups. IOUS identified the vertebral artery in all cases, detected residual cord compression in six (27%) and missed compression in two cases (9%). In another two cases with OPLL, IOUS was sub-optimal due to shadowing. IOUS measurement of the corpectomy width correlated well with these measurements on the postoperative CT. The extent of cord expansion noted on IOUS after decompression showed no correlation with immediate or 6-month postoperative neurological recovery. No significant difference in residual compression was noted in the retrospective and prospective groups of the study. Craniocaudal spinal cord motion was noted after the completion of the corpectomy. IOUS is an inexpensive and simple real-time imaging modality that may be used during OCC for cervical spondylotic myelopathy. It is helpful in identifying the vertebral artery and determining the trajectory of approach, however, it has limited utility in patients with OPLL due to artifacts from residual ossification.

CleanEx: a database of heterogeneous gene expression data based on a consistent gene nomenclature.

The main goal of CleanEx is to provide access to public gene expression data via unique gene names. A second objective is to represent heterogeneous expression data produced by different technologies in a way that facilitates joint analysis and cross-data set comparisons. A consistent and up-to-date gene nomenclature is achieved by associating each single experiment with a permanent target identifier consisting of a physical description of the targeted RNA population or the hybridization reagent used. These targets are then mapped at regular intervals to the growing and evolving catalogues of human genes and genes from model organisms. The completely automatic mapping procedure relies partly on external genome information resources such as UniGene and RefSeq. The central part of CleanEx is a weekly built gene index containing cross-references to all public expression data already incorporated into the system. In addition, the expression target database of CleanEx provides gene mapping and quality control information for various types of experimental resource, such as cDNA clones or Affymetrix probe sets. The web-based query interfaces offer access to individual entries via text string searches or quantitative expression criteria. CleanEx is accessible at: http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch/.

A comparative study of difficulties in accounting preparation and judgement in agriculture using fair value and historical cost for biological assets valuation

Este estudio realiza un investigación empírica comparando las dificultades que se derivan de la utilización del valor razonable (VR) y del coste histórico (CH) en el sector agrícola. Se analiza también la fiabilidad de ambos métodos de valoración para la interpretación de la información y la toma de decisiones por parte de los agentes que actúan en el sector. Mediante un experimento realizado con estudiantes, agricultores y contables que operan en el sector agrícola, se halla que estos tienen más dificultades, cometen mayores errores e interpretan peor la información contable realizada a CH que la realizada a VR. Entrevistas en profundidad con agricultores y contables agrícolas desvelan prácticas contables defectuosas derivadas de la necesidad de aplicar el CH en el sector en España. Dadas las complejidades del cálculo del coste de los activos biológicos y el predominio de pequeñas explotaciones en el sector en los países occidentales avanzados, el estudio concluye que la contabilidad a VR constituye una mejoría de utilización y desarrollo de la contabilidad en el sector que la confeccionada a CH. Asimismo, el CH transmite una peor representación de la situación real de las explotaciones agrícolas.

Aplicació del Value Stream Map (VSM) en un sistema de producció de feltres insonoritzants per a l'automòbil

Actualment en el sector industrial, les organitzacions tenen el repte d'optimitzar els seus sistemes productius per a millorar en quant a preu, qualitat i nivell de servei i poder adaptar-se a les exigències dels clients (excel·lència productiva). El present anàlisi, es basa en l'optimització d'una cadena de producció de feltres insonoritzants per a l'automòbil a través de l'eliminació de les pèrdues existents (operacions que no aporten valor afegit al producte final). Per dur-ho a terme, la metodologia emprada és el Value Stream Map (VSM). El VSM és una tècnica desenvolupada sota el model de gestió de la producció Lean Manufacturing, molt visual i entenedora, permet visualitzar i entendre l'estat actual d'un procés. Aquesta, abarca a tota la organització, i te per objectiu recolzar-la en el procés de redisseny dels seus entorns productius per assolir un estat futur millor que possibiliti obtenir resultats en un periode curt de temps. L'objectiu principal de l'estudi, és aplicar l'eina VSM com a mètode per a l'eliminació de les mudes o malbarataments que impedeix la consecució d'una cadena Lean amb el cas concret d'un sistema productiu de feltres insonoritzants. En la primera part del projecte s'introdueix al lector en la teoria del pensament Lean (quins principis té i quins són els objectius) com a marc teòric. Aquí es detalla el procediment, així com les característiques per a la correcta elaboració del VSM actual, per al seu corresponent anàlisi i per a la seva representació del estat futur. En una segona part del projecte, s'exposen les etapes que constitueixen la cadena de producció d'estudi i es duu a terme l'elaboració del Value Stream Map, on es posen de manifest les ineficiències del flux que conformen la línia de producció. Per últim s'analitzen els fluxes, s'identifiquen les pèrdues de la cadena, i a partir d'aquests, es dissenyen i es proposen projectes i accions que permitin establir línies d'actuació per a un millor estat futur. L'estudi ha permés demostrar la validesa del VSM com a eina per a facilitar la consecució i assoliment de millores en la productivitat, competitivitat i rendibilitat dels diferents processos de l'organització en la línia de fabricació de feltres insonoritzats.

Detection of hemorrhage source: the diagnostic value of post-mortem CT-angiography.

The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic value of post-mortem computed tomography angiography (PMCTA) to conventional, ante-mortem computed tomography (CT)-scan, CT-angiography (CTA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in the detection and localization of the source of bleeding in cases of acute hemorrhage with fatal outcomes. The medical records and imaging scans of nine individuals who underwent a conventional, ante-mortem CT-scan, CTA or DSA and later died in the hospital as a result of an acute hemorrhage were reviewed. Post-mortem computed tomography angiography, using multi-phase post-mortem CTA, as well as medico-legal autopsies were performed. Localization accuracy of the bleeding was assessed by comparing the diagnostic findings of the different techniques. The results revealed that data from ante-mortem and post-mortem radiological examinations were similar, though the PMCTA showed a higher sensitivity for detecting the hemorrhage source than did ante-mortem radiological investigations. By comparing the results of PMCTA and conventional autopsy, much higher sensitivity was noted in PMCTA in identifying the source of the bleeding. In fact, the vessels involved were identified in eight out of nine cases using PMCTA and only in three cases through conventional autopsy. Our study showed that PMCTA, similar to clinical radiological investigations, is able to precisely identify lesions of arterial and/or venous vessels and thus determine the source of bleeding in cases of acute hemorrhages with fatal outcomes.