Relationships between Duck and Grassland Bird Relative Abundance and Species Richness in Southern Saskatchewan

Digital map products that integrate long-term duck population and land-use data are currently being used to guide conservation program delivery on the Canadian Prairies. However, understanding the inter-relationships between ducks and other grassland bird species would greatly enhance program planning and delivery. We hypothesized that ducks, and Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) in particular, may function as an umbrella guild for the overall breeding habitat quality for other grassland bird species. We compared grassland bird species richness and relative abundance among areas of low, moderate, and high predicted waterfowl breeding densities (i.e., duck density strata) in the southern Missouri Coteau, Saskatchewan. We conducted roadside point counts and delineated habitats within a 400 m radius of each point. The duck high-density stratum supported greater avian species richness and abundance than did the duck low-density stratum. Overall, duck and other grassland bird species richness and abundance were moderately correlated, with all r between 0.37 and 0.69 (all P < 0.05). Although the habitat requirements of Northern Pintail may overlap with those of other grassland endemics, priority grassland bird species richness was only moderately correlated with total pintail abundance in both years, and the abundances of pintail and grassland songbirds listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada were not correlated. No differences in the mean number of priority grassland species were detected among the strata. Adequate critical habitat for several priority species may not be protected if conservation is focused only in areas of moderate to high wetland density because large tracts of contiguous, dry grassland habitat (e.g., pasture) occur infrequently in high-quality duck habitat.

Structure of turbulent flow over arrays of cubical roughness

The structure of turbulent flow over large roughness consisting of regular arrays of cubical obstacles is investigated numerically under constant pressure gradient conditions. Results are analysed in terms of first- and second-order statistics, by visualization of instantaneous flow fields and by conditional averaging. The accuracy of the simulations is established by detailed comparisons of first- and second-order statistics with wind-tunnel measurements. Coherent structures in the log region are investigated. Structure angles are computed from two-point correlations, and quadrant analysis is performed to determine the relative importance of Q2 and Q4 events (ejections and sweeps) as a function of height above the roughness. Flow visualization shows the existence of low-momentum regions (LMRs) as well as vortical structures throughout the log layer. Filtering techniques are used to reveal instantaneous examples of the association of the vortices with the LMRs, and linear stochastic estimation and conditional averaging are employed to deduce their statistical properties. The conditional averaging results reveal the presence of LMRs and regions of Q2 and Q4 events that appear to be associated with hairpin-like vortices, but a quantitative correspondence between the sizes of the vortices and those of the LMRs is difficult to establish; a simple estimate of the ratio of the vortex width to the LMR width gives a value that is several times larger than the corresponding ratio over smooth walls. The shape and inclination of the vortices and their spatial organization are compared to recent findings over smooth walls. Characteristic length scales are shown to scale linearly with height in the log region. Whilst there are striking qualitative similarities with smooth walls, there are also important differences in detail regarding: (i) structure angles and sizes and their dependence on distance from the rough surface; (ii) the flow structure close to the roughness; (iii) the roles of inflows into and outflows from cavities within the roughness; (iv) larger vortices on the rough wall compared to the smooth wall; (v) the effect of the different generation mechanism at the wall in setting the scales of structures.

Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO2. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO2, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.

A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part III. Polar vortex evolution and vertical structure

The evolution of the Arctic polar vortex during observed major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is investigated for the period 1957-2002, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) and temperature fields. Time-lag composites of vertically weighted PV, calculated relative to the SSW onset time, are derived for both vortex displacement SSWs and vortex splitting SSWs, by averaging over the 15 recorded displacement and 13 splitting events. The evolving vertical structure of the polar vortex during a typical SSW of each type is clearly illustrated by plotting an isosurface of the composite PV field, and is shown to be very close to that observed during representative individual events. Results are verified by comparison with an elliptical diagnostic vortex moment technique. For both types of SSW, little variation is found between individual events in the orientation of the developing vortex relative to the underlying topography, i.e. the location of the vortex during SSWs of each type is largely fixed in relation to the Earth’s surface. During each type of SSW, the vortex is found to have a distinctive vertical structure. Vortex splitting events are typically barotropic, with the vortex split occurring near-simultaneously over a large altitude range (20-40 km). In the majority of cases, of the two daughter vortices formed, it is the ‘Siberian’ vortex that dominates over its ‘Canadian’ counterpart. In contrast, displacement events are characterized by a very clear baroclinic structure; the vortex tilts significantly westward with height, so that the top and bottom of the vortex are separated by nearly 180◦ longitude before the upper vortex is sheared away and destroyed.

The Storm-Track Response to Idealized SST Perturbations in an Aquaplanet GCM

The tropospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies has been investigated through a series of aquaplanet simulations using a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3) under perpetual equinox conditions. Model integrations show that increases in the midlatitude SST gradient generally lead to stronger storm tracks that are shifted slightly poleward, consistent with changes in the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity. The large-scale atmospheric response is, however, highly sensitive to the position of the SST gradient anomaly relative to that of the subtropical jet in the unperturbed atmosphere. In particular, when SST gradients are increased very close to the subtropical jet, then the Hadley cell and subtropical jet is strengthened while the storm track and eddy-driven jet are shifted equatorward. Conversely, if the subtropical SST gradients are reduced and the midlatitude gradients increased, then the storm track shows a strong poleward shift and a well-separated eddy-driven jet is produced. The sign of the SST anomaly is shown to play a secondary role in determining the overall tropospheric response. These findings are used to provide a new and consistent interpretation of some previous GCM studies concerning the atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies.

Relative proportions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons differ between accumulation bioassays and chemical methods to predict bioavailability

Chemical methods to predict the bioavailable fraction of organic contaminants are usually validated in the literature by comparison with established bioassays. A soil spiked with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was aged over six months and subjected to butanol, cyclodextrin and tenax extractions as well as an exhaustive extraction to determine total PAH concentrations at several time points. Earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and rye grass root (Lolium multiflorum) accumulation bioassays were conducted in parallel. Butanol extractions gave the best relationship with earthworm accumulation (r2 ≤ 0.54, p ≤ 0.01); cyclodextrin, butanol and acetone–hexane extractions all gave good predictions of accumulation in rye grass roots (r2 ≤ 0.86, p ≤ 0.01). However, the profile of the PAHs extracted by the different chemical methods was significantly different (p < 0.01) to that accumulated in the organisms. Biota accumulated a higher proportion of the heavier 4-ringed PAHs. It is concluded that bioaccumulation is a complex process that cannot be predicted by measuring the bioavailable fraction alone. The ability of chemical methods to predict PAH accumulation in Eisenia fetida and Lolium multiflorum was hindered by the varied metabolic fate of the different PAHs within the organisms.