991 resultados para WEIBULL-DISTRIBUTION
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With the use of a simple formulary, field by health agents was ewstablished a monitoring programme for responses of P. falciparum to the antimalarial drugs. This monitoring programme is emphasized for knowledge of the epidemiology of the drug resistance and the control of malaria falciparum in Amazonan Basin where occurs more than 95% of Brazilian malaria cases every year. It was demonstrated that still now 4-aminoquinolines have a great importance for the mortality control in areas where just SUCAM (National Health Foundation - Health Ministry) agenst are present without any medical assistance. The results obtained permitted the simplification of malaria treatment in Brazil Important conclusions were established in the field of malaria drug resistance.
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Fecal egg count scores were used to investigate the distribution and abundance of intestinal helminths in the population of a rural village. Prevalences of the major helminths were 41% with Ascaris lumbricoides 60% with Trichuris trichiura and 50% with Necator americanus. All three parasites showed a highly aggregated distribution among hosts. Age/prevalence and age/intensity profiles were typical for both A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura with the highest worm burdens in the 50-10 year old children. For hookworm both prevalence and intensity curves were convex in shape with maximum infection levels in the 30-40 year old age class. Infected females had higher burdens of T. trichiura than infected males in all age classes of the population; there were no other effects of host gender. Analysis of associations between parasites within hosts revealed strong correlations between A. lumbricoides and T. lumbricoides and T. trichiura. Individuals with heavy infections of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura showed highly significant aggregation within households. Associations between a variety of household features and heavy infections with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura are described.
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A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.
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The spatial and temporal distribution of anopheline larvae was studied in two coastal malarious areas of Sucre, State, Venezuela. Seven habitat types were sampled in the village of Guayana and eight species of Anopheles were collected. Anopheles aquasalis was the predominant species collected and was most abundant in the brackish marsh habitat (71 larvae per 100 samples). It was most abundant during the rainy season. At the second location, Santa F e, six habitat types were sampled and four anopheline species were collected. Habitats where An. aquasalis was most abundant were temporary freshwater ponds (34 larvae per 100 samples) and mangroves (10.5 larvae per 100 samples). At this location it was also most abundant in the rainy season. During the dry season it was collected in small numbers in river pools (1.3 larvae per 100 samples) along with large numbers of An. pseudopunctipennis (479 larvae per 100 samples). Larval control could be an important component of the malaria control program because major habitats could be defined and presence and abundance of larvae was limited to specific times of year.
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The differential distribution and phosphorylation of tau proteins in cat cerebellum was studied with two well characterized antibodies, TAU-1 and TAU-2. TAU-1 detects tau proteins in axons, and the epitope in perikarya and dendrites is masked by phosphorylation. TAU-2 detects a phosphorylation-independent epitope on tau proteins. The molecular composition of tau proteins in the range of 45 kD to 64 kD at birth changed after the first postnatal month to a set of several adult variants of higher molecular weights in the range of 59 kD to 95 kD. The appearance of tau proteins in subsets of axons corresponds to the axonal maturation of cerebellar local-circuit neurons in granular and molecular layers and confirms previous studies. Tau proteins were also identified in synapses by immunofluorescent double-staining with synapsin I, located in the pinceau around the Purkinje cells, and in glomeruli. Dephosphorylation of juvenile cerebellar tissue by alkaline phosphatase indicated indirectly the presence of differentially phosphorylated tau forms mainly in juvenile ages. Additional TAU-1 immunoreactivity was unmasked in numerous perikarya and dendrites of stellate cells, and in cell bodies of granule cells. Purkinje cell bodies were stained transiently at juvenile ages. During postnatal development, the intensity of the phosphate-dependent staining decreased, suggesting that phosphorylation of tau proteins in perikarya and dendrites may be essential for early steps in neuronal morphogenesis during cat cerebellum development.
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"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."
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We obtain a new series of integral formulae for symmetric functions of curvature of a distribution of arbitrary codimension (an its orthogonal complement) given on a compact Riemannian manifold, which start from known formula by P.Walczak (1990) and generalize ones for foliations by several authors: Asimov (1978), Brito, Langevin and Rosenberg (1981), Brito and Naveira (2000), Andrzejewski and Walczak (2010), etc. Our integral formulae involve the co-nullity tensor, certain component of the curvature tensor and their products. The formulae also deal with a number of arbitrary functions depending on the scalar invariants of the co-nullity tensor. For foliated manifolds of constant curvature the obtained formulae give us the classical type formulae. For a special choice of functions our formulae reduce to ones with Newton transformations of the co-nullity tensor.
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1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.
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To better undesrtand the distribution of Culex pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus in Argentina, samples were collected from six localities situated in a North-South line from Castelli (Chaco Province) to Puerto Madryn (Chubut Province). Identification was based on the morphology of male genitalia. Only Cx. quinquefasciatus was found in Castelli and Esperanza, while in Rosario, 95.3% belonged to this species and 4.7% represented hybrid forms. Southern samples included only Cx. pipiens. With the purpose of verfying if Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus hybridize, different crosses between the two species were perfomed. All crosses produced viable egg rafts. Hatching ranged from 70 to 100%, except in one cross, female Cx. pipiens x male Cx. quinquefasciatus, where a high incompatibility was observed (11.1%hatch). The F1 hybrids obtained all crosses were fertile. The finding of hybrid forms in nature can be interpreted as evidence for subspecific status of Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus in Argentina.
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SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.
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OBJECTIVE: To compare the distribution of congenital anomalies within the VACTERL association (vertebral defects, anal atresia, cardiac, tracheoesophageal, renal, and limb abnormalities) between patients exposed to tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) antagonist and the general population. METHODS: Analysis for comparison of proportional differences to a previous publication between anomaly subgroups, according to subgroup definitions of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT), a population-based database. RESULTS: Most EUROCAT subgroups belonging to the VACTERL association contained only one or 2 records of TNF-α antagonist exposure, so comparison of proportions was imprecise. Only the category "limb abnormalities" showed a significantly higher proportion in the general population. CONCLUSION: The high number of congenital anomalies belonging to the VACTERL association from a report of pregnancies exposed to TNF-α antagonists could not be confirmed using a population-based congenital anomaly database.
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From a total of 12,721 anophelines collected in a lowland area in Guaraí, Rio de Janeiro, from November 1991 to October 1992, 99.7% (12,688) were Anopheles aquasalis. This species occurred throughout the year, but in higher numbers from April to September, when rainfall was low or moderate. The proportion of parous females in June was significantly higher than the annual rate. An. aquasalis was weakly attracted by a light-trap, and no significant differences in abundance were detected between nights with and without moonlight.