Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to test the intertemporal risk-return relation for 13 European stock markets. We identify country specific, euro area, and global macro-finance factors to determine the conditional risk and return. Empirically, the risk- return trade-off is generally negative. However, a Markov switching model documents that there is time-variation in this trade-off that is linked to the state of the economy. Keywords: Risk-return trade-off; Dynamic factor model; Macro-finance predictors; European stock markets; Markov switching model JEL Classifications: C22; G11; G12; G17

Is the wage curve formal or informal? Evidence for Colombia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the existente or not of a wage curve in Colombia, paying special attention to the differences between formal and informal workers, an issue that has been systematically ignored in the wage curve literature. The obtained results using microdata from the Colombian Continuous Household Survey (CHS) between 2002 and 2006 show the existence of a wage curve with a negative slope for the Colombian economy. Using information on metropolitan areas, the estimates of the elasticity of individual wages to local unemployment rates was -0.07, a value that is very close to those obtained for other countries. However, the disaggregation of statistical information for formal and informal workers has shown significant differences among both groups of workers. In particular, for the less protected groups of the labour market, informal workers (both men and women), a high negatively sloped wage curve was found. This result is consistent with the conclusions from efficiency wage theoretical models and should be taken into account when analysing the functioning of regional labour markets in developing countries.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

Accounting Beta Measuring Systematic Risk: Empirical Evidence from the Finnish Markets

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether accounting-based variables can be used to measure systematic risk of a company using Finnish data. When the fundamental sources of systematic risk are known, companies are able to manage these risks and increase company value. Accounting beta was formed based on OLS regression models. Theoretical background for the study was based on the findings of studies according to which business risk, financial risk, operating risk and growth risk can be theoretically regarded as determinants of the systematic risk. The results reveal that accounting variables describe systematic risk of a company. The accounting beta is found to be particularly sensitive to the changes in the risk components. The investigation is confidential until 15.10.2012.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

Tukkusähkön hintapiikkeihin reagoinnin keinot sellu- ja kartonkitehtaalla.

Sähkön tukkuhinnat vaihtelivat hyvin voimakkaasti talvella 2009–2010. Työssä on esitetty rajahyötytarkasteluna yhdistetyn sellu- ja paperitehtaan mahdollisuudet lisätä vastapainesähkön tuotantoa sekä leikata sähkön kulutusta aikana, jolloin sähkön tuntihinta on korkea. Työssä tarkastellaan myös erilaisia sähkömarkkinaoperaatioita. Työn ensimmäisessä osiossa esitellään Stora Enson Imatran tehtaat. Myöhemmissä kappaleissa perehdytään pohjoismaisten sähkömarkkinoiden sekä kaasupörssin toimintaan. Jotta korkeista sähkön hinnoista voitaisiin hyötyä, tulee sähkön myyntitarjoukset jättää sähköpörssi Nord Poolin kaupankäyntijärjestelmään toimitusvuorokautta edeltävänä päivänä. Tässä työssä on määritetty sähköenergian mahdolliset myyntivolyymit sekä hinnat eri tuotantotilanteissa. Työssä pyritään parantamaan tehtaan sähkökaupankäynnin kannattavuutta käyttämällä eri sähkökaupan tuotteita. Työssä esitetään malleja, joiden avulla korkeita sähkön markkinahintoja voidaan pyrkiä hyödyntämään. Eri sähkömarkkinatuotteet soveltuvat myös riskienhallintaan voimakkaasti vaihtelevilla sähkömarkkinoilla

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

Sähkön hinta pohjoismaisilla sähkömarkkinoilla

Kandidaatintyössä käsitellään sähkön tukkuhintaa pohjoismaisilla sähkömarkkinoilla. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää kuinka sähkön hinta määräytyy markkinoilla, mitkä tekijät siihen vaikuttavat sekä kuinka hinta on kehittynyt. Lisäksi tavoitteena on arvioida markkinoiden kehitysnäkymiä. Sähkön hinnalle on ominaista suuri vaihtelu, mikä tekee markkinoista hyvin haasteelliset. Suuren hinnanvaihtelun ja sen ennalta arvaamattomuuden vuoksi markkinoilla toimivilla osapuolilla on toiminnassaan merkittäviä riskejä. Riskien ymmärtäminen ja niiltä suojautuminen on markkinoilla toimimisen edellytys. Sähkön hinta on selvästi noussut vuodesta 1999 vuoteen 2011. Tulevaisuudessa sähkön hinnan arvioimisessa oleellista on sähkön hintaan vaikuttavien tekijöiden kehitys. Markkinoiden kehityssuuntauksilla ja yleisellä maailmantalouden kehityksellä voi olla ratkaiseva vaikutus sähkön hinnan kehitykseen.

Integration or a Greek tragedy?: How crisis spillovers affect Central and Eastern European States

Tutkielma siitä, miten Euroopan entisten sosialistivaltioiden markkinoiden integroituminen on edistynyt Kreikan ja EMU-alueen kanssa euron käyttöönoton ajalta. Tutkimus vertaa maiden markkinoiden reaktioita Kreikasta ja EMU-alueelta kantautuviin sokkeihin ennen ja jälkeen vuonna 2007 alkanutta kriisiä.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

The role of network externalities in value creating process of the commercial web service for two-sided international markets

Network externalities and two-sided markets in the context of web services and value creation is not very well discussed topic in academic literature. The explosive rise of the Internet users has created a strong base for many successful web services and pushed many firms towards e-business and online service based business models. Thus the subject of this thesis, the role of network externalities in value creating process of the commer-cial web service for two-sided international markets is very current and interesting topic to examine. The objective of this Master’s Thesis is to advance the study of network externalities from the viewpoint of two-sided markets and network effects as well as describe the value creation & value co-creation process in commercial web service business models. The main proposition suggests that the larger network of customers and the bigger number of users the web service is able to attract, the more value and stronger positive net-work externalities the service is able to create for each customer group. The empirical research of this study was implemented for commercial web service, targeted to Russian consumers and Finnish business users. The findings suggest that the size of the network is highly related to the experi-enced value of the customers and the whole value creation process of commercial web targeted for two-sided international markets varies from the value creation for one-sided or pure domestic markets.

Commodity Future Price Premiums – Case EU ETS

The purpose of this thesis was to study commodity future price premiums and their nature on emission allowance markets. The EUA spot and future contracts traded on the secondary market during EU ETS Phase 2 and Phase 3 were selected for empirical testing. The cointegration of spot and future prices was examined with Johansen cointegration methodology. Daily interest rates with a similar tenor to the future contract maturity were used in the cost-of-carry model to calculate the theoretical future prices and to estimate the deviation from the fair value of future contracts, assumed to be explained by the convenience yield. The time-varying dependence of the convenience yield was studied by regression testing the correlation between convenience yield and the time to maturity of the future contract. The results indicated cointegration between spot and future prices, albeit depending on assumptions on linear trend and intercept in cointegration vector Dec-14 and Dec-15 contracts. The convenience yield correlates positively with the time-to-maturity of the future contract during Phase 2, but negatively during Phase 3. The convenience yield featured positive correlation with spot price volatility and negative correlation with future price volatility during both Phases 2 and 3.

Reflexivity in sovereign debt markets

Finanssi-instrumentin hinta määräytyy sen fundamenttitekijöiden perusteella, eikä päinvastoin. Tämä tutkimus osoittaa, että myös instrumentin hinta voi vaikuttaa fundamenttitekijöihin. Yhteys havainnollistetaan tapaustukimuksella Kreikan velkakriisistä. Hinnan ja fundamenttien välistä yhteyttä arvioidaan ja käänteisen kausaliteetin olemassaolo testataan. Tulokset tukevat ajatusta, jonka mukaan tarvitsemme dynaamisempia valuaatiomenetelmiä, jotka ottavat huomioon myös mahdolliset itseään vahvistavat hintakierteet.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.