IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Can you see me thinking (about my answers)? Using eye-tracking to illuminate developmental differences in monitoring and control skills and their relation to performance

This study focuses on relations between 7- and 9-year-old children’s and adults’ metacognitive monitoring and control processes. In addition to explicit confidence judgments (CJ), data for participants’ control behavior during learning and recall as well as implicit CJs were collected with an eye-tracking device (Tobii 1750). Results revealed developmental progression in both accuracy of implicit and explicit monitoring across age groups. In addition, efficiency of learning and recall strategies increases with age, as older participants allocate more fixation time to critical information and less time to peripheral or potentially interfering information. Correlational analyses, recall performance, metacognitive monitoring, and controlling indicate significant interrelations between all of these measures, with varying patterns of correlations within age groups. Results are discussed in regard to the intricate relationship between monitoring and recall and their relation to performance.

Space-based space surveillance and tracking demonstrator: mission and system design

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro-satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission" performed by the Airbus Defence and Space consortium. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well- designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond-LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Furthermore, unique statistical information about small-size LEO debris (mm size) can be collected in-situ. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users and with low technological effort and risk. The SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements into account and aims at fulfilling SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. Additionally, requirements for detection and characterisation of small-sizedLEO debris are considered. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro-satellite platforms, the instrument design and the operational modes. Note that the detailed results of performance simulations for space debris coverage and cataloguing accuracy are presented in a separate paper “Capability of a Space-based Space Surveillance System to Detect and Track Objects in GEO, MEO and LEO Orbits” by J. Silha (AIUB) et al., IAC-14, A6, 1.1x25640.

Apes’ tracking of objects and collections

Recent research suggests that great apes are less vulnerable to cohesion violations than human infants are. In contrast to human infants, apes successfully track nonsolid substances or split solid objects through occlusion (Cacchione & Call, 2010a; Cacchione, Hrubesch, & Call, 2012, 2013). The present study aims to investigate whether the lower vulnerability of great apes to cohesion violations also manifests when they are tracking collections. While even very young human infants appreciate the continuous existence of solid bound objects, they fail to show similar intuitions when tracking collections of objects (Chiang & Wynn, 2000). In a manual search task inspired by recent infant research, we tested whether humans’ closest relatives, the great apes, showed a similar contrast in their reasoning about single solid objects and objects within collections. The results suggest that, in contrast to human infants, great apes appreciate the continuous existence of objects within collections and successfully track them through occlusion. This confirms the view that great apes are generally less vulnerable to cohesion violations than human infants.

Universal ontology: attentive tracking of objects and substances across languages and over development

Previous research has demonstrated that adults are successful at visually tracking rigidly moving items, but experience great difficulties when tracking substance-like ‘‘pouring’’ items. Using a comparative approach, we investigated whether the presence/absence of the grammatical count–mass distinction influences adults and children’s ability to attentively track objects versus substances. More specifically, we aimed to explore whether the higher success at tracking rigid over substance-like items appears universally or whether speakers of classifier languages (like Japanese, not marking the object–substance distinction) are advantaged at tracking substances as compared to speakers of non-classifier languages (like Swiss German, marking the object–substance distinction). Our results supported the idea that language has no effect on low-level cognitive processes such as the attentive visual processing of objects and substances. We concluded arguing that the tendency to prioritize objects is universal and independent of specific characteristics of the language spoken.

Unified detection and tracking of instruments during retinal microsurgery

Methods for tracking an object have generally fallen into two groups: tracking by detection and tracking through local optimization. The advantage of detection-based tracking is its ability to deal with target appearance and disappearance, but it does not naturally take advantage of target motion continuity during detection. The advantage of local optimization is efficiency and accuracy, but it requires additional algorithms to initialize tracking when the target is lost. To bridge these two approaches, we propose a framework for unified detection and tracking as a time-series Bayesian estimation problem. The basis of our approach is to treat both detection and tracking as a sequential entropy minimization problem, where the goal is to determine the parameters describing a target in each frame. To do this we integrate the Active Testing (AT) paradigm with Bayesian filtering, and this results in a framework capable of both detecting and tracking robustly in situations where the target object enters and leaves the field of view regularly. We demonstrate our approach on a retinal tool tracking problem and show through extensive experiments that our method provides an efficient and robust tracking solution.

Tracking the trajectory of shame, guilt, and pride across the life span

The authors examined age differences in shame, guilt, and 2 forms of pride (authentic and hubristic) from age 13 years to age 89 years, using cross-sectional data from 2,611 individuals. Shame decreased from adolescence into middle adulthood, reaching a nadir around age 50 years, and then increased in old age. Guilt increased from adolescence into old age, reaching a plateau at about age 70 years. Authentic pride increased from adolescence into old age, whereas hubristic pride decreased from adolescence into middle adulthood, reaching a minimum around age 65 years, and then increased in old age. On average, women reported experiencing more shame and guilt; Blacks reported experiencing less shame and Asians more hubristic pride than other ethnicities. Across the life span, shame and hubristic pride tended to be negatively related to psychological well-being, and shame-free guilt and authentic pride showed positive relations with well-being. Overall, the findings support the maturity principle of personality development and suggest that as people age they become more prone to experiencing psychologically adaptive self-conscious emotions, such as guilt and authentic pride, and less prone to experiencing psychologically maladaptive ones, such as shame and hubristic pride.