Initialization of Continuous Nonlinear Models Using Extended Kalman Filter

The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

Air blast freezing of fruit pulp models in commercial boxes: influence of preferential channels in the bed on freezing times estimating

The freezing times of fruit pulp models packed and conditioned in multi-layered boxes were evaluated under conditions similar to those employed commercially. Estimating the freezing time is a difficult practice due to the presence of significant voids in the boxes, whose influence may be analyzed by means of various methods. In this study, a procedure for estimating freezing time by using the models described in the literature was compared with experimental measurements by collecting time/temperature data. The following results show that the airflow through packages is a significant parameter for freezing time estimation. When the presence of preferential channels was considered, the predicted freezing time in the models could be 10% lower than the experimental values, depending on the method. The isotherms traced as a function of the location of the samples inside the boxes showed the displacement of the thermal center in relation to the geometric center of the product.

Explaining the intention to play and behavior of playing sports betting games of young Finnish adults : an application of the theory of planned behavior

The aim of this Master’s Thesis was to examine the determinants of intention and behavior of playing sports betting games in order to explain the intention to play in a more precise way and to be able to understand the behavior of playing. The theory of planned behavior was applied in explaining the intention of young Finnish adults aged 18 to 34. A quantitative research method was applied and an online survey was sent to the students of Lappeenranta University of Technology and to the subscribers of Urheilulehti in order to reach a sample that present the young population of Finland. The theory of the study focused on the theory of planned behavior and its antecedents, attitude towards behavior, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control as well as motivation. By analyzing the data, causal relationships were found through which the explanation of intention was possible. The results showed that attitude towards playing, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control and motivation impact the formation of intention significantly. The results also indicated that intention impacts significantly to the playing frequency.

Variance reduction properties of dynamic hedging models - empirical evidence from BRICS countries

This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

Has social justice any legitimacy in Kant's theory of right? The empirical conditions of the legal state as a civil union

This paper aims at shedding light on an obscure point in Kant's theory of the state. It discusses whether Kant's rational theory of the state recognises the fact that certain exceptional social situations, such as the extreme poverty of some parts of the population, could request institutional state support in order to guarantee the attainment of a minimum threshold of civil independence. It has three aims: 1) to show that Kant's Doctrine of Right can offer solutions for the complex relation between economics and politics in our present time; 2) to demonstrate the claim that Kant embraces a pragmatic standpoint when he tackles the social concerns of the state, and so to refute the idea that he argues for an abstract conception of politics; and 3) to suggest that a non-paternalistic theory of rights is not necessarily incompatible with the basic tenets of a welfare state.

A substantive theory of the realization of stroke patients’ dignity in hospital care

Dignity is seen important in health care context but considered as a controversial and complex concept. In health care context, it is described as being influenced by for example autonomy, respect, communication, privacy and hospital environment. Patient dignity is related to satisfaction with care, reduced stress, better confidence in health services, enhanced patient outcomes and shorter stay in a hospital. Stroke patients may struggle for dignity as being dependent on other people has impact on the patients’ self-image. In all, stroke patients are very specific patient group and considered vulnerable from emotional aspect. Therefore study findings from other patient groups in the area of ethical problems cannot be transferred to the stroke patients. This master’s thesis consists of two parts. The first part is the literature review of patients’ dignity in hospital care. The literature defined dignity and described factors promoting and reducing it. The results were ambiguous and thus a clear understanding was not able to create. That was the basis for the second part of the master’s thesis, the empirical study. This part aimed to develop theoretical construction to explore the realization of stroke patients’ dignity in hospital care. The data of the second part was collected by interviewing 16 stroke patients and analyzed using the constant comparison of Grounded Theory. The result was ‘The Theory of Realization of Stroke Patients’ Dignity in Hospital Care’ which is described not only in this master’s thesis but also as a scientific article. The theory consists of the core category, four generic elements and five specific types on realization. The core category emerged as ‘dignity in a new situation’. After a stroke, dignity is defined in a new way which is influenced by the generic elements: life history, health history, individuality and a stroke. Stroke patient’s dignity is realized through five specific types on realization: person related dignity type, control related dignity type, independence related dignity type, social related dignity type and care related dignity type. The theory points out possible special characteristics of stroke patients’ dignity in control related dignity type and independence related dignity type. Before implementing the theory, the relation between the core category, generic elements and specific types on realization needs to be studied further.

Factors affecting a woman's decision to leave an abusive relationship : the theory of planned behaviour /

The present study tested the appHcabiUty of Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behaviour (TPB), an extension of Fishbein and Ajzen's (1975) theory of reasoned action (TRA), for the first time, in the context of abused women's decision to leave their abusive relationships. The TPB, as a means of predicting women's decision to leave their abusive partners' was drawn from Strube's (1988, 1991) proposed decision-making model based on the principle that the decision-making process is a rational, deliberative process, and regardless of outcome, was a result of a logical assessment of the available data. As a means of predicting those behaviours not under volitional control, Ajzen's (1985) TPB incorporated a measure of perceived behavioural control. Data were collected in two phases, ranging from 6 months to 1 year apart. It was hypothesized that, to the extent that an abused woman held positive attitudes, subjective norms conducive to leaving, and perceived control over leaving, she would form an intention to leave and thus, increase the likelihood of actually leaving her partner. Furthermore, it was expected that perceptions of control would predict leaving behaviour over and above attitude and subjective norm. In addition, severity and frequency of abuse were assessed, as were demographic variables. The TPB failed to account significantly for variability in either intentions or leaving behaviour. All of the variance was attributed to those variables associated with the theory of reasoned action, with social influence emerging as the strongest predictor of a woman's intentions. The poor performance of this model is attributed to measurement problems with aspects of attitude and perceived control, as well as a lack of power due to the small sample size. The insufficiency of perceived control to predict behaviour also suggests that, on the surface at least, other factors may be at work in this context. Implications of these results, and recommendations such as, the importance of obtaining representative samples, the inclusion of self-esteem and emotions as predictor variables in this model, a reevaluation of the target behaviovu" as nonvolitional, and longitudinal studies spanning a longer time period for future research within the context of decision-making are discussed.

A minor theory of the transit of materiality into discourse, Via Campesina.

In this thesis I explore how the material properties of plant seed enter the political discourses of the international peasant coalition the Via Campesina and coalition member the National Fanners Union of Canada (NFU), querying how this process might be employed as a resource for a transformative eco-social politics. I employ several post-structural theoretical constructs, configuring them together as a "minor theory". This minor theory provides the basis for a "minor" reading of three sets of Via Campesina and NFU texts. The aim of these readings is to track the movement of seed from a local agricultural concern to a transitive political one, across both the material and discursive registers. In surfacing the presence of the seed's physical properties in the three texts, I highlight the distinctions between the constraining seed of corporate industrial agriculture, and the social and agroecological opportunities resulting from what I call a "Seed Event".

A constructivist grounded theory of firefighter perceptions of stress, coping and the relationship to health

This qualitative research was a constructivist grounded theory designed to develop an understanding of how firefighters perceive and cope with stressful situations and the impact this has on their perceptions of health. This study was framed in a social ecological perspective with the community of firefighting providing the environment within which to explore stress and coping. Of particular concern here are the stressors associated with firefighting. Prior research with firefighters has often been epidemiological and statistical in nature, focusing on measures of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and depression (Baker & Williams, 2001 ; Brown et al., 2002; Murphy et al.,1999; Regehr et al., 2002; Regehr et al., 2003). Qualitative research examining the perception of stress among firefighters that includes personal stories allows firefighters the opportunity to describe what it is like to be met with physically and mentally challenging situations on a daily basis. Twelve in-depth, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with a brief questionnaire were conducted with firefighters from a Southern Ontario Fire Department. Four main themes emerged describing the persona of the firefighter, the stressors of firefighters, coping strategies of firefighters, and firefighters' perceptions of health. Stressors include requirements of the job, traumatic calls, tensions with co-workers, the struggle between the family at home and the family at work, political stressors with the City, and the inner struggle. Avoidance coping, approach coping, and gaining perspective emerged as the three coping styles of firefighters. Health was defined as including physical, mental, social and spiritual aspects. A model of the findings is provided that depicts the cyclical nature of the stress-coping-health relationship among firefighters.