Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Computer aided design and manufacture for three dimensional milling

Advances in both computer technology and the necessary mathematical models capable of capturing the geometry of arbitarily shaped objects has led to the development in this thesis of a surface generation package called 'IBSCURF' aimed at providing a more economically viable solution to free-form surface manufacture. A suit of computer programs written in FORTRAN 77 has been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in designing and machining free-form surfaces. A vector-valued parametric method was used for shape description and a lofting technique employed for the construction of the surface. The development of the package 'IBSCURF' consists of two phases. The first deals with CAD. The design process commences in defining the cross-sections which are represented by uniform B-spline curves as approximations to give polygons. The order of the curve and the position and number of the polygon vertices can be used as parameters for the modification to achieve the required curves. When the definitions of the sectional curves is complete, the surface is interpolated over them by cubic cardinal splines. To use the CAD function of the package to design a mould for a plastic handle, a mathematical model was developed. To facilitate the integration of design and machining using the mathematical representation of the surface, the second phase of the package is concerned with CAM which enables the generation of tool offset positions for ball-nosed cutters and a general post-processor has been developed which automatically generates NC tape programs for any CNC milling machine. The two phases of these programs have been successfully implemented, as a CAD/CAM package for free-form surfaces on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of this package has been beneficial in all aspects of design and machining of free form surfaces.

Aspects of the design and control of manufacturing systems subject to demand uncertainty

The recent explosive growth in advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and continued development of sophisticated information technologies (IT) is expected to have a profound effect on the way we design and operate manufacturing businesses. Furthermore, the escalating capital requirements associated with these developments have significantly increased the level of risk associated with initial design, ongoing development and operation. This dissertation has examined the integration of two key sub-elements of the Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) system, namely the manufacturing facility and the production control system. This research has concentrated on the interactions between production control (MRP) and an AMT based production facility. The disappointing performance of such systems has been discussed in the context of a number of potential technological and performance incompatibilities between these two elements. It was argued that the design and selection of operating policies for both is the key to successful integration. Furthermore, policy decisions are shown to play an important role in matching the performance of the total system to the demands of the marketplace. It is demonstrated that a holistic approach to policy design must be adopted if successful integration is to be achieved. It is shown that the complexity of the issues resulting from such an approach required the formulation of a structured design methodology. Such a methodology was subsequently developed and discussed. This combined a first principles approach to the behaviour of system elements with the specification of a detailed holistic model for use in the policy design environment. The methodology aimed to make full use of the `low inertia' characteristics of AMT, whilst adopting a JIT configuration of MRP and re-coupling the total system to the market demands. This dissertation discussed the application of the methodology to an industrial case study and the subsequent design of operational policies. Consequently a novel approach to production control resulted. A central feature of which was a move toward reduced manual intervention in the MRP processing and scheduling logic with increased human involvement and motivation in the management of work-flow on the shopfloor. Experimental results indicated that significant performance advantages would result from the adoption of the recommended policy set.

A systematic approach to establish fundamental principles of computer applications packages design

This work attempts to create a systemic design framework for man-machine interfaces which is self consistent, compatible with other concepts, and applicable to real situations. This is tackled by examining the current architecture of computer applications packages. The treatment in the main is philosophical and theoretical and analyses the origins, assumptions and current practice of the design of applications packages. It proposes that the present form of packages is fundamentally contradictory to the notion of packaging itself. This is because as an indivisible ready-to-implement solution, current package architecture displays the following major disadvantages. First, it creates problems as a result of user-package interactions, in which the designer tries to mould all potential individual users, no matter how diverse they are, into one model. This is worsened by the minute provision, if any, of important properties such as flexibility, independence and impartiality. Second, it displays rigid structure that reduces the variety and/or multi-use of the component parts of such a package. Third, it dictates specific hardware and software configurations which probably results in reducing the number of degrees of freedom of its user. Fourth, it increases the dependence of its user upon its supplier through inadequate documentation and understanding of the package. Fifth, it tends to cause a degeneration of the expertise of design of the data processing practitioners. In view of this understanding an alternative methodological design framework which is both consistent with systems approach and the role of a package in its likely context is proposed. The proposition is based upon an extension of the identified concept of the hierarchy of holons* which facilitates the examination of the complex relationships of a package with its two principal environments. First, the user characteristics and his decision making practice and procedures; implying an examination of the user's M.I.S. network. Second, the software environment and its influence upon a package regarding support, control and operation of the package. The framework is built gradually as discussion advances around the central theme of a compatible M.I.S., software and model design. This leads to the formation of the alternative package architecture that is based upon the design of a number of independent, self-contained small parts. Such is believed to constitute the nucleus around which not only packages can be more effectively designed, but is also applicable to many man-machine systems design.

Knowledge-based systems and engineering software

The work described was carried out as part of a collaborative Alvey software engineering project (project number SE057). The project collaborators were the Inter-Disciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme of the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd. (BIS) and the British Steel Corporation. The aim of the project was to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based systems (KBSs) to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The work was primarily concerned with BIS's Structured Systems Design (SSD) methodology for DP systems development and how users of this methodology could be supported using KBS tools. The problems encountered by users of SSD are discussed and potential forms of computer-based support for inexpert designers are identified. The architecture for a support environment for SSD is proposed based on the integration of KBS and non-KBS tools for individual design tasks within SSD - The Intellipse system. The Intellipse system has two modes of operation - Advisor and Designer. The design, implementation and user-evaluation of Advisor are discussed. The results of a Designer feasibility study, the aim of which was to analyse major design tasks in SSD to assess their suitability for KBS support, are reported. The potential role of KBS tools in the domain of database design is discussed. The project involved extensive knowledge engineering sessions with expert DP systems designers. Some practical lessons in relation to KBS development are derived from this experience. The nature of the expertise possessed by expert designers is discussed. The need for operational KBSs to be built to the same standards as other commercial and industrial software is identified. A comparison between current KBS and conventional DP systems development is made. On the basis of this analysis, a structured development method for KBSs in proposed - the POLITE model. Some initial results of applying this method to KBS development are discussed. Several areas for further research and development are identified.

Clinical decision support system for point of care use: ontology driven design and software implementation

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this research was to design a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that supports heterogeneous clinical decision problems and runs on multiple computing platforms. Meeting this objective required a novel design to create an extendable and easy to maintain clinical CDSS for point of care support. The proposed solution was evaluated in a proof of concept implementation. METHODS: Based on our earlier research with the design of a mobile CDSS for emergency triage we used ontology-driven design to represent essential components of a CDSS. Models of clinical decision problems were derived from the ontology and they were processed into executable applications during runtime. This allowed scaling applications' functionality to the capabilities of computing platforms. A prototype of the system was implemented using the extended client-server architecture and Web services to distribute the functions of the system and to make it operational in limited connectivity conditions. RESULTS: The proposed design provided a common framework that facilitated development of diversified clinical applications running seamlessly on a variety of computing platforms. It was prototyped for two clinical decision problems and settings (triage of acute pain in the emergency department and postoperative management of radical prostatectomy on the hospital ward) and implemented on two computing platforms-desktop and handheld computers. CONCLUSIONS: The requirement of the CDSS heterogeneity was satisfied with ontology-driven design. Processing of application models described with the help of ontological models allowed having a complex system running on multiple computing platforms with different capabilities. Finally, separation of models and runtime components contributed to improved extensibility and maintainability of the system.

Measurements design and phenomena discrimination

The construction of measurements suitable for discriminating signal components produced by phenomena of different types is considered. The required measurements should be capable of cancelling out those signal components which are to be ignored when focusing on a phenomenon of interest. Under the hypothesis that the subspaces hosting the signal components produced by each phenomenon are complementary, their discrimination is accomplished by measurements giving rise to the appropriate oblique projector operator. The subspace onto which the operator should project is selected by nonlinear techniques in line with adaptive pursuit strategies.

Design and validity of a miniaturized open-field aberrometer

PURPOSE: To validate a new miniaturised, open-field wavefront device which has been developed with the capacity to be attached to an ophthalmic surgical microscope or slit-lamp. SETTING: Solihull Hospital and Aston University, Birmingham, UK DESIGN: Comparative non-interventional study. METHODS: The dynamic range of the Aston Aberrometer was assessed using a calibrated model eye. The validity of the Aston Aberrometer was compared to a conventional desk mounted Shack-Hartmann aberrometer (Topcon KR1W) by measuring the refractive error and higher order aberrations of 75 dilated eyes with both instruments in random order. The Aston Aberrometer measurements were repeated five times to assess intra-session repeatability. Data was converted to vector form for analysis. RESULTS: The Aston Aberrometer had a large dynamic range of at least +21.0 D to -25.0 D. It gave similar measurements to a conventional aberrometer for mean spherical equivalent (mean difference ± 95% confidence interval: 0.02 ± 0.49D; correlation: r=0.995, p<0.001), astigmatic components (J0: 0.02 ± 0.15D; r=0.977, p<0.001; J45: 0.03 ± 0.28; r=0.666, p<0.001) and higher order aberrations RMS (0.02 ± 0.20D; r=0.620, p<0.001). Intraclass correlation coefficient assessments of intra-sessional repeatability for the Aston Aberrometer were excellent (spherical equivalent =1.000, p<0.001; astigmatic components J0 =0.998, p<0.001, J45=0.980, p<0.01; higher order aberrations RMS =0.961, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The Aston Aberrometer gives valid and repeatable measures of refractive error and higher order aberrations over a large range. As it is able to measure continuously, it can provide direct feedback to surgeons during intraocular lens implantations and corneal surgery as to the optical status of the visual system.

A randomised controlled trial investigating the effect of nutritional supplementation on visual function in normal, and age-related macular disease affected eyes:design and methodology [ISRCTN78467674]

Background: Age-related macular disease is the leading cause of blind registration in the developed world. One aetiological hypothesis involves oxidation, and the intrinsic vulnerability of the retina to damage via this process. This has prompted interest in the role of antioxidants, particularly the carotenoids lutein and zeaxanthin, in the prevention and treatment of this eye disease. Methods: The aim of this randomised controlled trial is to determine the effect of a nutritional supplement containing lutein, vitamins A, C and E, zinc, and copper on measures of visual function in people with and without age-related macular disease. Outcome measures are distance and near visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, colour vision, macular visual field, glare recovery, and fundus photography. Randomisation is achieved via a random number generator, and masking achieved by third party coding of the active and placebo containers. Data collection will take place at nine and 18 months, and statistical analysis will employ Student's t test. Discussion: A paucity of treatment modalities for age-related macular disease has prompted research into the development of prevention strategies. A positive effect on normals may be indicative of a role of nutritional supplementation in preventing or delaying onset of the condition. An observed benefit in the age-related macular disease group may indicate a potential role of supplementation in prevention of progression, or even a degree reversal of the visual effects caused by this condition.

Senior management leadership, social support, job design and stressor-to-strain relationships in hospital practice

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the quality of senior management leadership on social support and job design, whose main effects on strains, and moderating effects on work stressors-to-strains relationships were assessed. Design/methodology/approach: A survey involving distribution of questionnaires was carried out on a random sample of health care employees in acute hospital practice in the UK. The sample comprised 65,142 respondents. The work stressors tested were quantitative overload and hostile environment, whereas strains were measured through job satisfaction and turnover intentions. Structural equation modelling and moderated regression analyses were used in the analysis. Findings: Quality of senior management leadership explained 75 per cent and 94 per cent of the variance of social support and job design respectively, whereas work stressors explained 51 per cent of the variance of strains. Social support and job design predicted job satisfaction and turnover intentions, as well as moderated significantly the relationships between quantitative workload/hostility and job satisfaction/turnover intentions. Research limitations/implications: The findings are useful to management and to health employees working in acute/specialist hospitals. Further research could be done in other counties to take into account cultural differences and variations in health systems. The limitations included self-reported data and percept-percept bias due to same source data collection. Practical implications: The quality of senior management leaders in hospitals has an impact on the social environment, the support given to health employees, their job design, as well as work stressors and strains perceived. Originality/value: The study argues in favour of effective senior management leadership of hospitals, as well as ensuring adequate support structures and job design. The findings may be useful to health policy makers and human resources managers. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

A computational model of intonation for yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis:design and analysis

In this paper we present the design and analysis of an intonation model for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis applications using a combination of Relational Tree (RT) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) technologies. The model is demonstrated using the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language. In the proposed intonation model, phonological information extracted from text is converted into an RT. RT is a sophisticated data structure that represents the peaks and valleys as well as the spatial structure of a waveform symbolically in the form of trees. An initial approximation to the RT, called Skeletal Tree (ST), is first generated algorithmically. The exact numerical values of the peaks and valleys on the ST is then computed using FL. Quantitative analysis of the result gives RMSE of 0.56 and 0.71 for peak and valley respectively. Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) of 9.5 and 6.8, on a scale of 1 - -10, was obtained for intelligibility and naturalness respectively.

Reactor design and its impact on performance and products

This chapter discusses engineering design and performance of various types of biomass transformation reactors. These reactors vary in their operating principle depending on the processing capacity and the nature of the desired end product, that is, gas, chemicals or liquid bio-oil. Mass balance around a thermal conversion reactor is usually carried out to identify the degree of conversion and obtain the amount of the various components in the product. The energy balance around the reactors is essential for determining the optimum reactor temperature and the amount of heat required to complete the overall reactions. Experimental and pilot-plant testing is essential for proper reactor design. However, it is common practice to use correlation and valid parameter values in determining the realistic reactor dimensions and configurations. Despite the recent progress in thermochemical conversion technology, reactor performance and scale up potential are the subjects of continuing research.

Grid Infrastructure for Satellite Data Processing in Ukraine

In this paper conceptual foundations for the development of Grid systems that aimed for satellite data processing are discussed. The state of the art of development of such Grid systems is analyzed, and a model of Grid system for satellite data processing is proposed. An experience obtained within the development of the Grid system for satellite data processing in the Space Research Institute of NASU-NSAU is discussed.

Distributed Visualization Systems in Remote Sensing Data Processing Grid

Implementation of GEOSS/GMES initiative requires creation and integration of service providers, most of which provide geospatial data output from Grid system to interactive user. In this paper approaches of DOS- centers (service providers) integration used in Ukrainian segment of GEOSS/GMES will be considered and template solutions for geospatial data visualization subsystems will be suggested. Developed patterns are implemented in DOS center of Space Research Institute of National Academy of Science of Ukraine and National Space Agency of Ukraine (NASU-NSAU).