Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Synthesis, structure, and optical properties of an alternating calix[4]arene-based meta-linked phenylene ethynylene copolymer

Novel alternating copolymers comprising biscalix[4]arene-p-phenylene ethynylene and m-phenylene ethynylene units (CALIX-m-PPE) were synthesized using the Sonogashira-Hagihara cross-coupling polymerization. Good isolated yields (60-80%) were achieved for the polymers that show M-n ranging from 1.4 x 10(4) to 5.1 x 10(4) gmol(-1) (gel permeation chromatography analysis), depending on specific polymerization conditions. The structural analysis of CALIX-m-PPE was performed by H-1, C-13, C-13-H-1 heteronuclear single quantum correlation (HSQC), C-13-H-1 heteronuclear multiple bond correlation (HMBC), correlation spectroscopy (COSY), and nuclear overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY) in addition to Fourier transform-Infrared spectroscopy and microanalysis allowing its full characterization. Depending on the reaction setup, variable amounts (16-45%) of diyne units were found in polymers although their photophysical properties are essentially the same. It is demonstrated that CALIX-m-PPE does not form ground-or excited-state interchain interactions owing to the highly crowded environment of the main-chain imparted by both calix[4]arene side units which behave as insulators inhibiting main-chain pi-pi staking. It was also found that the luminescent properties of CALIX-m-PPE are markedly different from those of an all-p-linked phenylene ethynylene copolymer (CALIX-p-PPE) previously reported. The unexpected appearance of a low-energy emission band at 426 nm, in addition to the locally excited-state emission (365 nm), together with a quite low fluorescence quantum yield (Phi = 0.02) and a double-exponential decay dynamics led to the formulation of an intramolecular exciplex as the new emissive species.

Synthesis and Coordination Chemistry of a New N-4-Polydentate Class of Pyridyl-Functionalized Scorpionate Ligands: Complexes of Fe-II, Zn-II, V-IV, Pd-II and Use for Heterobimetallic Systems

The new potentially N-4-multidentate pyridyl-functionalized scorpionates 4-((tris-2,2,2-(pyrazol-1-ypethoxy)methyl)pyridine (TpmPy, (1)) and 4-((tris-2,2,2-(3-phenylpyrazol-1-yl)ethoxy)methyl)pyridine (TpmPy(Ph), (2)) have been synthesized and their coordination behavior toward Fe-II, Ni-II, Zn-II, Cu-II, Pd-II, and V-III centers has been studied. Reaction of (1) with Fe(BF4)(2)center dot 6H(2)O yields [Fe(TpmPy)(2)](BF4)(2) (3), that, in the solid state, shows the sandwich structure with trihapto ligand coordination via the pyrazolyl arms, and is completely low spin (LS) until 400 K. Reactions of 2 equiv of (1) or (2) with Zn-II or Ni-II chlorides give the corresponding metal complexes with general formula [MCl2(TpmPy*)(2)] (M = Zn, Ni; TpmPy* = TpmPy, TpmPy(Ph)) (4-7) where the ligand is able to coordinate through either the pyrazolyl rings (in case of [Ni(TpmPy)(2)Cl-2 (5)) or the pyridyl-side (for [ZnCl2(TpmPy)(2)] (4), [ZnCl2(TpmPy(Ph))(2)] (6) and [NiCl2(TpmPy(Ph))(2)] (7)). The reaction of (1) with VCl3 gives [VOCl2(TpmPy)] (8) that shows the N-3-pyrazolyl coordination-mode. Moreover, (1) and react with cis-[PdCl2(CH3CN)(2)] to give the disubstituted complexes [PdCl2(TprnPy)(2)] (9) and [PdCl2(TpmPy(Ph))(2)] (10), respectively, bearing the scorpionate coordinated via the pyridyl group. Compounds (9) and (10) react with Fe(BF4)(2) to give the heterobimetallic Pd/Fe systems [PdCl2(mu-TpmPy)(2)-Fe](BF4)(2) (11) and [PdCl2(mu-TpmPy(Ph))(2)Fe-2(H2O)(6)]BF4)(4) (13), respectively. Compound (11) can also be formed from reaction of (3) with cis-[PdCl2(CH3CN)(2)], while reaction of (3) with Cu(NO3)(2).2.5H(2)O generates [Fe(mu-TpmPy)(2)-Cu(NO3)(2)](BF4)(2) (12), confirming the multidentate ability of the new chelating ligands. The X-ray diffraction analyses of compounds (1), (3), (4), (5), and (9) are also reported.

Templated synthesis of carbon materials mediated by porous clay heterostructures

Mesoporous carbon materials were prepared through template method approach using porous clay heterostructures (PCHs) as matrix and furfuryl alcohol as carbon precursor. Three PCHs prepared using amines with 8, 10 and 12 carbon atoms were used. The effect of several impregnation-polymerization cycles of the carbon precursor, the carbonization temperature and the need of a previous surface alumination were evaluated. The presence of two porosity domains was identified in all the carbon materials. These two domains comprise pores resulting from the carbonization of the polymer film formed in the inner structure of the PCH (domain I) and larger pores created by the clay particles aggregation (domain II). The predominance of the porosity associated to domain I or II can be achieved by choosing a specific amine to prepare the PCH matrix. Carbonization at 700 C led to the highest development of pores of domain I. In general, the second impregnation-polymerization cycle of furfuryl alcohol resulted in a small decrease of both types of porosity domains. Furthermore the previous acidification of the surface to create acidic sites proved to be unnecessary. The results showed the potential of PCHs as matrices to tailor the textural properties of carbons prepared by template mediated synthesis.

CP properties of symmetry-constrained two-Higgs-doublet models

The two-Higgs-doublet model can be constrained by imposing Higgs-family symmetries and/or generalized CP symmetries. It is known that there are only six independent classes of such symmetry-constrained models. We study the CP properties of all cases in the bilinear formalism. An exact symmetry implies CP conservation. We show that soft breaking of the symmetry can lead to spontaneous CP violation (CPV) in three of the classes.

Renormalization-group constraints on Yukawa alignment in multi-Higgs-doublet models

We write down the renormalization-group equations for the Yukawa-coupling matrices in a general multi-Higgs-doublet model. We then assume that the matrices of the Yukawa couplings of the various Higgs doublets to right-handed fermions of fixed quantum numbers are all proportional to each other. We demonstrate that, in the case of the two-Higgs-doublet model, this proportionality is preserved by the renormalization-group running only in the cases of the standard type-I, II, X, and Y models. We furthermore show that a similar result holds even when there are more than two Higgs doublets: the Yukawa-coupling matrices to fermions of a given electric charge remain proportional under the renormalization-group running if and only if there is a basis for the Higgs doublets in which all the fermions of a given electric charge couple to only one Higgs doublet.

Optimal design of piezolaminated structures using B-spline strip finite element models

A package of B-spline finite strip models is developed for the linear analysis of piezolaminated plates and shells. This package is associated to a global optimization technique in order to enhance the performance of these types of structures, subjected to various types of objective functions and/or constraints, with discrete and continuous design variables. The models considered are based on a higher-order displacement field and one can apply them to the static, free vibration and buckling analyses of laminated adaptive structures with arbitrary lay-ups, loading and boundary conditions. Genetic algorithms, with either binary or floating point encoding of design variables, were considered to find optimal locations of piezoelectric actuators as well as to determine the best voltages applied to them in order to obtain a desired structure shape. These models provide an overall economy of computing effort for static and vibration problems.

Molybdenum Complexes Bearing the Tris(1-pyrazolyl)methanesulfonate Ligand: Synthesis, Characterization and Electrochemical Behaviour

The tris(1-pyrazolyl)methanesulfonate lithium salt Li(Tpms) [Tpms = SO3C(pz)(3)-] reacts with [Mo(CO)(6)] in NCMe heated at reflux to yield Li[Mo(Tpms)(CO)(3)] (1), which, upon crystallization from thf, forms the coordination polymer [Mo(Tpms)(CO)(2)(mu-CO)Li(thf)(2)](n) (2). Reaction of 1 with I-2, HBF4 or AgBF4 yields [Mo(Tpms)I(CO)(3)] (3), (Mo(Tpms)-H(CO)(3)] (5) or (Mo(Tpms)O-2](2)(mu-O) (7), respectively. The high-oxidation-state dinuclear complexes [{Mo(Tpms)O(mu-O)}(2)] (4) and [{Mo(tpms)OCl)(2)](mu-O) (6) are formed upon exposure to air of solutions of 3 and 5, respectively. Compounds 1-7, which appear to be the first tris(pyrazolyl)methanesulfonate complexes of molybdenum to be reported, were characterized by IR, H-1 and C-13 NMR spectroscopy, ESI-MS, elemental analysis, cyclic voltammetry and, in the cases of Li(Tpms) and compounds 2, 4.2CH(3)CN, 6.6CHCl(3) and 7, by X-ray diffraction analyses. Li(Tpms) forms a 1D polymeric structure (i.e., [Li(tpms)](n)} with Tpms as a tetradentate N2O2 chelating ligand that bridges two Li cations with distorted tetrahedral coordination. Compound 2 is a 1D coordination polymer in which Tpms acts as a bridging tetradentate N3O ligand and each Li(thf)(2)(+) moiety is coordinated by one bridging CO ligand and by the sulfonyl group of a contiguous monomeric unit. In 4, 6 and 7, the Tpms ligand is a tridentate chelator either in the NNO (in 4) or in the NNN (in 6 and 7) fashion. Complexes 1, 3 and 5 exhibit, by cyclic voltammetry, a single-electron oxidation at oxidation potential values that indicate that the Tpms ligand has an electron-donor character weaker than that of cyclopentadienyl.

A dramatic effect of double bond configuration in N-oxy-3-aza Cope rearrangements: a simple synthesis of functionalised allenes

The first examples of low temperature N-oxy-3-aza Cope rearrangements, leading to functionalised allenes are described, where the Z-configuration of the enaminic double bond in the rearranging system proves critical.

Asymmetric synthesis of N-aryl aziridines

The reactions of a variety of N-arylhydroxamates as nitrogen transfer reagents to acryloyl derivatives of (−)-8-phenylmenthol, (−)-quinine and (−)-Oppolzer’s sultam acting as Michael acceptors was studied. Poor to modest diastereoselection was observed in the formation of aziridines. The absolute structure of one of the pure diastereomers secured from Oppolzer’s auxiliary was established by X-ray crystallography and hence the absolute configuration of the derived methyl-N-phenylaziridine-2-carboxylate could be assigned. Whilst only poor facial selectivity was observed for chiral hydroxamic acid prepared from dehydroabietic acid, moderate to good enantioselection of aziridines could be achieved with the chiral quaternary salts based on cinchona alkaloids, especially with that of cinchonine. A model is presented to explain the origin of enantioselection and a mechanism is proposed for the aziridination reaction.

Synthesis, characterization and redox behaviour of benzoyldiazenido- and oxorhenium complexes bearing N,N- and S,S-type ligands

The reactions of [ReCl2{eta(2)-N2C(O)Ph}(PPh3)(2)](1) with 2-aminopyrimidine (H(2)Npyrm), 2,2'-bipyridine (bpy) and tetraethylthiuram disulfide (tds), in MeOH upon reflux, lead to the new eta(1)-(benzoyldiazenido)-rhenium(III) complexes [ReCl{eta(1)-N2C(O)Ph}(HNpyrm)(PPh3)(2)](2)and [ReCl2{eta(1)-N2C(O)Ph}(bpy)(PPh3)] (3), and the known oxo(diethyldithiocarbamato)dirhenium(v)complex [Re2O2(mu O){Et2NC(S)S}(4)](4), respectively. The Et2NC(S)S ligands in 4 result from S-S bond rupture of tds molecules. The obtained compounds have been characterized by IR, H-1, P-31{H-1} and C-13{H-1} NMR spectroscopies, FAB(+)-MS, elemental and single-crystal X-ray diffraction (for 2 and 4)analyses. Complex 2 represents the first structurally characterized Re compound derived from 2-aminopyrimidine. Besides, the redox behaviour of 2-4 in CH2Cl2 solution has been studied by cyclic voltammetry, and the Lever electrochemical ligand parameter (E-L)has been estimated, for the first time, for HNpyrm. The electrochemical results are discussed in terms of electronic properties of the Re centres and the ligands.