Biliary Drainage in Patients With Unresectable, Malignant Obstruction Where ERCP Fails Endoscopic Ultrasonography-Guided Choledochoduodenostomy Versus Percutaneous Drainage

Background: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography may fail because of malignant involvement of the second portion of the duodenum and the major papilla. Alternatives include percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) or surgical bypass. Endoscopic ultrasonography-guided choledochoduodenostomy (EUS-CD) has been reported as an alternative. Objective: To prospectively compare EUS-CD and PTBD in patients with unresectable malignant biliary obstruction. Design: Prospective and randomized study. Setting: Tertiary center. Main Outcome Measurements: Success and efficacy comparison EUS-CD with PTBD. Results: Twenty-five subjects were randomized (13 EUS-CD and 12 PTBD). Mean age was 67 years (SD, 11.9). The 2 groups were similar before intervention in terms of quality of life [EUS-CD (58.3) vs. PTBD (57.8); P = 0.78], total bilirubin (16.4 vs. 17.2; P = 0.7), alkaline phosphatase (539 vs. 518; P = 0.7), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (554.3 vs. 743.5; P = 0.56). All procedures were technically and clinically successful in both groups. At 7-day follow-up there was a significant reduction in total bilirubin in both the groups (EUS-CD, 16.4 to 3.3; P = 0.002 and PTBD, 17.2 to 3.8; P = 0.01), although no difference was noted comparing the 2 groups (EUS-CD to PTBD; 3.3 vs. 3.8; P = 0.2). There was no difference between the complication rates in the 2 groups (P = 0.44), EUS-CD (2/13; 15.3%) and PTBD (3/12; 25%). Costs were similar in the 2 groups also ($5673-EUS-CD vs. $7570-PTBD; P = 0.39). Limitations: Small sample size and single center study. Conclusions: EUS-CD can be an effective and safe alternative to PTBD with similar success, complication rate, cost, and quality of life.

The local power of the gradient test

The asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the gradient test statistic is derived for a composite hypothesis under a sequence of Pitman alternative hypotheses converging to the null hypothesis at rate n(-1/2), n being the sample size. Comparisons of the local powers of the gradient, likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests reveal no uniform superiority property. The power performance of all four criteria in one-parameter exponential family is examined.

Brazilian multicenter study on prevalence of preterm birth and associated factors

Abstract Background The occurrence of preterm birth remains a complex public health condition. It is considered the main cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality, resulting in a high likelihood of sequelae in surviving children. With variable incidence in several countries, it has grown markedly in the last decades. In Brazil, however, there are still difficulties to estimate its real occurrence. Therefore, it is essential to establish the prevalence and causes of this condition in order to propose prevention actions. This study intend to collect information from hospitals nationwide on the prevalence of preterm births, their associated socioeconomic and environmental factors, diagnostic and treatment methods resulting from causes such as spontaneous preterm labor, prelabor rupture of membranes, and therapeutic preterm birth, as well as neonatal results. Methods/Design This proposal is a multicenter cross-sectional study plus a nested case-control study, to be implemented in 27 reference obstetric centers in several regions of Brazil (North: 1; Northeast: 10; Central-west: 1; Southeast: 13; South: 2). For the cross sectional component, the participating centers should perform, during a period of six months, a prospective surveillance of all patients hospitalized to give birth, in order to identify preterm birth cases and their main causes. In the first three months of the study, an analysis of the factors associated with preterm birth will also be carried out, comparing women who have preterm birth with those who deliver at term. For the prevalence study, 37,000 births will be evaluated (at term and preterm), corresponding to approximately half the deliveries of all participating centers in 12 months. For the case-control study component, the estimated sample size is 1,055 women in each group (cases and controls). The total number of preterm births estimated to be followed in both components of the study is around 3,600. Data will be collected through a questionnaire all patients will answer after delivery. The data will then be encoded in an electronic form and sent online by internet to a central database. The data analysis will be carried out by subgroups according to gestational age at preterm birth, its probable causes, therapeutic management, and neonatal outcomes. Then, the respective rates, ratios and relative risks will be estimated for the possible predictors. Discussion These findings will provide information on preterm births in Brazil and their main social and biological risk factors, supporting health policies and the implementation of clinical trials on preterm birth prevention and treatment strategies, a condition with many physical and emotional consequences to children and their families.

A comparison between diuretics and angiotensin-receptor blocker agents in patients with stage I hypertension (PREVER-treatment trial): study protocol for a randomized double-blind controlled trial

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in Brazil, and hypertension is its major risk factor. The benefit of its drug treatment to prevent major cardiovascular events was consistently demonstrated. Angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARB) have been the preferential drugs in the management of hypertension worldwide, despite the absence of any consistent evidence of advantage over older agents, and the concern that they may be associated with lower renal protection and risk for cancer. Diuretics are as efficacious as other agents, are well tolerated, have longer duration of action and low cost, but have been scarcely compared with ARBs. A study comparing diuretic and ARB is therefore warranted. Methods/design This is a randomized, double-blind, clinical trial, comparing the association of chlorthalidone and amiloride with losartan as first drug option in patients aged 30 to 70 years, with stage I hypertension. The primary outcomes will be variation of blood pressure by time, adverse events and development or worsening of microalbuminuria and of left ventricular hypertrophy in the EKG. The secondary outcomes will be fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events: myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, evidence of new subclinical atherosclerosis and sudden death. The study will last 18 months. The sample size will be of 1200 participants for group in order to confer enough power to test for all primary outcomes. The project was approved by the Ethics committee of each participating institution. Discussion The putative pleiotropic effects of ARB agents, particularly renal protection, have been disputed, and they have been scarcely compared with diuretics in large clinical trials, despite that they have been at least as efficacious as newer agents in managing hypertension. Even if the null hypothesis is not rejected, the information will be useful for health care policy to treat hypertension in Brazil. Clinical trials registration number ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00971165

Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

Tamanho de amostra e estimativa de custo em levantamento epidemiológico de cárie dentária

O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar como a prevalência e a distribuição da cárie dentária influenciam o tamanho da amostra em levantamentos epidemiológicos, e os custos para sua realização. Foram utilizados dados de levantamentos realizados em escolares de 12 anos em Bauru nos anos de 1976, 1984, 1990, 1994 e 2001, e em Piracicaba nos anos de 2001 e 2005. Os tamanhos amostrais foram dimensionados considerando-se a média e o desvio padrão obtidos, fixando-se erro amostral em 1%, 2%, 5% e 10%. Os custos foram estimados considerando material permanente, de consumo e recursos humanos. Verificou-se aumento no tamanho das amostras em ambos os municípios, variando de 119 em 1976 para 1.118 em 2001 em Bauru, e de 954 em 2001 para 1.252 em 2005 em Piracicaba, considerando-se um erro amostral de 10%. Considerando-se diferentes erros amostrais, verificou-se o custo para o levantamento, sendo que o mesmo depende do quanto o pesquisador se permite errar em relação ao verdadeiro valor da média da população. Conclui-se que a diminuição da prevalência da cárie dentária determinou o aumento no tamanho das amostras e a elevação dos custos para realização dos levantamentos.

Clinical prognostic indicators of dysphagia following prolonged orotracheal intubation in ICU patients

Introduction The development of postextubation wallowing dysfunction is well documented in the literature with high prevalence in most studies. However, there are relatively few studies with specific outcomes that focus on the follow-up of these patients until hospital discharge. The purpose of our study was to determine prognostic indicators of dysphagia in ICU patients submitted to prolonged orotracheal intubation (OTI). Methods We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study from 2010 to 2012 of all patients over 18 years of age admitted to a university hospital ICU who were submitted to prolonged OTI and subsequently received a bedside swallow evaluation (BSE) by a speech pathologist. The prognostic factors analyzed included dysphagia severity rate at the initial swallowing assessment and at hospital discharge, age, time to initiate oral feeding, amount of individual treatment, number of orotracheal intubations, intubation time and length of hospital stay. Results After we excluded patients with neurologic diseases, tracheostomy, esophageal dysphagia and those who were submitted to surgical procedures involving the head and neck, our study sample size was 148 patients. The logistic regression model was used to examine the relationships between independent variables. In the univariate analyses, we found that statistically significant prognostic indicators of dysphagia included dysphagia severity rate at the initial swallowing assessment, time to initiate oral feeding and amount of individual treatment. In the multivariate analysis, we found that dysphagia severity rate at the initial swallowing assessment remained associated with good treatment outcomes. Conclusions Studies of prognostic indicators in different populations with dysphagia can contribute to the design of more effective procedures when evaluating, treating, and monitoring individuals with this type of disorder. Additionally, this study stresses the importance of the initial assessment ratings.

Survey of Trachoma within School Students in the State of Roraima, Brazil

Purpose: Trachoma, a blinding conjunctivitis, is the result of repeated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis. There are no recent data for the state of Roraima, Brazil, where it was thought that trachoma no longer existed. These data are derived from school children sampled in this state, with additional data collected from the contacts of children with trachoma. Design: A population-based cross-sectional study with random sampling of students in grades 1 through 4 of all public schools within municipalities where the human development index was less than the national average in 2003. The sample was stratified according to population size. Participants: A sample size of 7200 was determined and a total of 6986 (93%) students were examined, along with an additional 2152 contacts. Methods: All students were examined for trachoma according to World Health Organization criteria. Demographic data and contact information also was collected. The family and school contacts of students with trachoma then were located and examined. Main Outcome Measures: Prevalence and grade of trachoma, age, gender, race, and municipality location. Results: The overall prevalence of trachoma was 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7%–5.3%), but there were municipalities within the state where the prevalence of inflammatory trachoma was more than 10%. The prevalence was greater in rural areas (4.9%; 95% CI, 3.7%–6.0%) compared with urban areas (3.9%; 95% CI, 2.9%–4.9%). Living in indigenous communities was associated with trachoma (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.9 –2.6). An additional 2152 contacts were examined, and the overall trachoma prevalence was 9.3% (95% CI, 8.1–10.5). Conclusions: Trachoma continues to exist in Roraima, Brazil, where there are municipalities with a significant prevalence of disease. The indigenous population is highly mobile, crossing state and international borders, raising the possibility of trachoma in neighboring countries. Trachoma prevalence among the contacts of students with trachoma was higher than the school population, highlighting the importance of contact tracing.

Combined low initial DNA damage and high radiation-induced apoptosis confers clinical resistance to long-term toxicity in breast cancer patients treated with high-dose radiotherapy

[EN] Background: Either higher levels of initial DNA damage or lower levels of radiation-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been associated to increased risk for develop late radiation-induced toxicity. It has been recently published that these two predictive tests are inversely related. The aim of the present study was to investigate the combined role of both tests in relation to clinical radiation-induced toxicity in a set of breast cancer patients treated with high dose hyperfractionated radical radiotherapy. Methods: Peripheral blood lymphocytes were taken from 26 consecutive patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma treated with high-dose hyperfractioned radical radiotherapy. Acute and late cutaneous and subcutaneous toxicity was evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group morbidity scoring schema. The mean follow-up of survivors (n = 13) was 197.23 months. Radiosensitivity of lymphocytes was quantified as the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced per Gy and per DNA unit (200 Mbp). Radiation-induced apoptosis (RIA) at 1, 2 and 8 Gy was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Results: Mean DSB/Gy/DNA unit obtained was 1.70 ± 0.83 (range 0.63-4.08; median, 1.46). Radiation-induced apoptosis increased with radiation dose (median 12.36, 17.79 and 24.83 for 1, 2, and 8 Gy respectively). We observed that those "expected resistant patients" (DSB values lower than 1.78 DSB/Gy per 200 Mbp and RIA values over 9.58, 14.40 or 24.83 for 1, 2 and 8 Gy respectively) were at low risk of suffer severe subcutaneous late toxicity (HR 0.223, 95%CI 0.073-0.678, P = 0.008; HR 0.206, 95%CI 0.063-0.677, P = 0.009; HR 0.239, 95%CI 0.062-0.929, P = 0.039, for RIA at 1, 2 and 8 Gy respectively) in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: A radiation-resistant profile is proposed, where those patients who presented lower levels of initial DNA damage and higher levels of radiation induced apoptosis were at low risk of suffer severe subcutaneous late toxicity after clinical treatment at high radiation doses in our series. However, due to the small sample size, other prospective studies with higher number of patients are needed to validate these results.

Sistema de observação proxémica do instrutor de fitness (soprox-fitness): desenvolvimento, validação e estudio piloto

[ES] The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the Observational System for the Proxemic Communication of the Fitness Instructor, as well as conduct a pilot application of the same. During the development and validation process of the new observation system it was employed five sequential phases. At the end of this process, it was established the validity and reliability of 5 coding dimensions and 23 categories of instructor proxemics behavior to create the final version of the observational system. This version of the observational system was applied in a pilot study conducted in a sample of 12 fitness instructors from four different group-exercise classes. The results indicated that instructor proxemics behaviour could be feasibly coded with the Observational System for the Proxemic Communication of the Fitness Instructor, having been held a comparative analysis about its intervention in the various activities, albeit with a small sample size.

Sorveglianza dell'influenza aviare: studio di un sistema di rilevazione precoce della circolazione virale in popolazioni di volatili selvatici

The emergency of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) subtype H5N1 has focused the attention of the world scientific community, requiring the prompt provision of effective control systems for early detection of the circulation of low pathogenic influenza H5 viruses (LPAI) in populations of wild birds to prevent outbreaks of highly pathogenic (HPAI) in populations of domestic birds with possible transmission to humans. The project stems from the aim to provide, through a preliminary analysis of data obtained from surveillance in Italy and Europe, a preliminary study about the virus detection rates and the development of mathematical models, an objective assessment of the effectiveness of avian influenza surveillance systems in wild bird populations, and to point out guidelines to support the planning process of the sampling activities. The results obtained from the statistical processing quantify the sampling effort in terms of time and sample size required, and simulating different epidemiological scenarios identify active surveillance as the most suitable for endemic LPAI infection monitoring in wild waterfowl, and passive surveillance as the only really effective tool in early detecting HPAI H5N1 circulation in wild populations. Given the lack of relevant information on H5N1 epidemiology, and the actual finantial and logistic constraints, an approach that makes use of statistical tools to evaluate and predict monitoring activities effectiveness proves to be of primary importance to direct decision-making and make the best use of available resources.

Multidimensional item response theory models with general and specific latent traits for ordinal data

The aim of the thesis is to propose a Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo of multidimensional item response theory models for graded responses with complex structures and correlated traits. In particular, this work focuses on the multiunidimensional and the additive underlying latent structures, considering that the first one is widely used and represents a classical approach in multidimensional item response analysis, while the second one is able to reflect the complexity of real interactions between items and respondents. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery for the proposed models under different conditions (sample size, test and subtest length, number of response categories, and correlation structure). The results show that the parameter recovery is particularly sensitive to the sample size, due to the model complexity and the high number of parameters to be estimated. For a sufficiently large sample size the parameters of the multiunidimensional and additive graded response models are well reproduced. The results are also affected by the trade-off between the number of items constituting the test and the number of item categories. An application of the proposed models on response data collected to investigate Romagna and San Marino residents' perceptions and attitudes towards the tourism industry is also presented.

Permutation-based stochastic ordering using pairwise comparisons

The topic of this work concerns nonparametric permutation-based methods aiming to find a ranking (stochastic ordering) of a given set of groups (populations), gathering together information from multiple variables under more than one experimental designs. The problem of ranking populations arises in several fields of science from the need of comparing G>2 given groups or treatments when the main goal is to find an order while taking into account several aspects. As it can be imagined, this problem is not only of theoretical interest but it also has a recognised relevance in several fields, such as industrial experiments or behavioural sciences, and this is reflected by the vast literature on the topic, although sometimes the problem is associated with different keywords such as: "stochastic ordering", "ranking", "construction of composite indices" etc., or even "ranking probabilities" outside of the strictly-speaking statistical literature. The properties of the proposed method are empirically evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study, where several aspects of interest are let to vary within a reasonable practical range. These aspects comprise: sample size, number of variables, number of groups, and distribution of noise/error. The flexibility of the approach lies mainly in the several available choices for the test-statistic and in the different types of experimental design that can be analysed. This render the method able to be tailored to the specific problem and the to nature of the data at hand. To perform the analyses an R package called SOUP (Stochastic Ordering Using Permutations) has been written and it is available on CRAN.

Mobi - kids - rischio di tumori cerebrali ed esposizione a campi a radiofrequenza nei bambini e negli adolescenti

Introduzione. Il rapido e globale incremento dell’utilizzo dei telefoni cellulari da parte degli adolescenti e dei bambini ha generato un considerevole interesse circa i possibili effetti sulla salute dell’esposizione a campi elettromagnetici a radiofrequenza. Perciò è stato avviato lo studio internazionale caso-controllo Mobi-kids, all’interno del quale si colloca quello italiano condotto in 4 Regioni (Piemonte, Lombardia, Toscana, Emilia-Romagna). Obiettivi. Lo studio ha come obiettivo quello di valutare la stima del rischio degli effetti potenzialmente avversi di queste esposizioni sul sistema nervoso centrale nei bambini e negli adolescenti. Materiali e Metodi. La popolazione include tutte le persone di età compresa tra 10 e 24 anni residenti nelle 4 Regioni, con una diagnosi confermata di neoplasia cerebrale primitiva, diagnosticata durante il periodo di studio (3 anni). Sono stati selezionati due controlli - ospedalizzati per appendicite acuta - per ciascun caso. I controlli sono stati appaiati individualmente a ciascun caso per età, sesso e residenza del caso. Risultati. In Italia sono stati intervistati a Giugno 2014, 106 casi e 191 controlli. In Emilia-Romagna i casi reclutati sono stati fino ad ora 21 e i controlli 20, con una rispondenza del’81% e dell’65% rispettivamente. Dei 41 soggetti totali, il 61% era di sesso maschile con un’età media generale pari a 16,5 (±4,5) anni. Inoltre il 44% degli intervistati proveniva dalla classe di età più giovane (10-14). In merito allo stato di appaiamento, nella nostra Regione sono state effettuate 7 triplette (33%) - 1 caso e 2 controlli - e 6 doppiette (29%) - 1 caso ed 1 controllo. Conclusioni. Nonostante le varie difficoltà affrontate data la natura del progetto, l’esperienza maturata fin ad ora ha comunque portato alla fattibilità dello studio e porterà probabilmente a risultati che contribuiranno alla comprensione dei potenziali rischi di neoplasie cerebrali associati all'uso di telefoni cellulari tra i giovani.

Sustainable development in Darjeeling Hills, India : ecological and socio-economic aspects for small-scale farmers with supportive observations from Kanagawa, Japan

Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.