963 resultados para Reliability level
Resumo:
There is an increasing need to compare the results obtained with different methods of estimation of tree biomass in order to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of forest biomass carbon. In this study, tree biomass was investigated in a 30-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) (Young-Stand) and a 130-year-old mixed Norway spruce (Picea abies)-Scots pine stand (Mature-Stand) located in southern Finland (61º50' N, 24º22' E). In particular, a comparison of the results of different estimation methods was conducted to assess the reliability and suitability of their applications. For the trees in Mature-Stand, annual stem biomass increment fluctuated following a sigmoid equation, and the fitting curves reached a maximum level (from about 1 kg/yr for understorey spruce to 7 kg/yr for dominant pine) when the trees were 100 years old. Tree biomass was estimated to be about 70 Mg/ha in Young-Stand and about 220 Mg/ha in Mature-Stand. In the region (58.00-62.13 ºN, 14-34 ºE, ≤ 300 m a.s.l.) surrounding the study stands, the tree biomass accumulation in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands followed a sigmoid equation with stand age, with a maximum of 230 Mg/ha at the age of 140 years. In Mature-Stand, lichen biomass on the trees was 1.63 Mg/ha with more than half of the biomass occurring on dead branches, and the standing crop of litter lichen on the ground was about 0.09 Mg/ha. There were substantial differences among the results estimated by different methods in the stands. These results imply that a possible estimation error should be taken into account when calculating tree biomass in a stand with an indirect approach.
Resumo:
The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.
Resumo:
The basis for this study was in poor attractiveness of the wood products industry among young people as a field to study and work in. The purpose was to produce new information of how to improve the relationship between young people and the wood products industry in order to better attract young people with different relational orientation. A survey was conducted among students of comprehensive schools and students of wood industry at vocational schools selected by systematic cluster sampling. The final sample consisted of 613 students. The study combined the theories and concepts of relationships, communication and trust of several disciplines. In addition, it applied theories of relationship marketing, stakeholders, publics, involvement and concepts of reputation and values. It studied the central relational elements in the form of antecedents, relationship state and its consequences. The study examined, how young people with different background and level of interest perceive wood industry as a field to study and work in from relational point of view, what are the central deficiencies in perceived relational elements and what are the public relations activities enhancing the relationship between wood industry and young people with less and high interest in the sector. The results indicate poor visibility of the wood industry among young people: unfamiliarity with the industry and unawareness of the opportunities to study in the field. It appeared that instead of increasing only information sharing, interactive communication in different forms is needed. The study also suggests that behaviors of the industry sector advancing perceived trustworthiness are of crucial importance. Moreover, the wood industry needs to pay attention to its behaviors and communication also among other stakeholder groups, especially the media, as reputation plays an important role in building up trust and satisfaction between young people and the sector. Finally, the less and highly interested young people were found to assess the relationship partly through different relational elements. In order to develop the relationship with highly interested young people they should be regarded clearly as future employees of the wood industry through activities affirming that they are desired and valued employees in the sector. Further, openness of information disclosure, whether concerning current situation or future prospects, seems to increase credibility and attractiveness of the wood industry. Highly interested young people were also found to appreciate socially responsible activities. The less interested young people seem to be insecure about the reliability of the wood industry as an employer, as well as, its ability and interest to invest in young people s skills. In addition,involvement in issues relevant for young people was found crucial in enhancing the relationship with the less interested young people.The conclusions of the study provide tools for enhancing the attractiveness of the wood industry among young people not only to the industry itself, but also to its advocates, teachers and student counselors of comprehensive and vocational schools, authorities and policy makers.
Resumo:
The primary objective of this study was to investigate the impact of animal-level factors including energy balance and environmental/management stress, on the ovarian function of Bos indicus heifers treated to synchronize ovulation. Two-year-old Brahman (BN) (n = 30) and BN-cross (n = 34) heifers were randomly allocated to three intravaginal progesterone-releasing device (IPRD) treatment groups: (i) standard-dose IPRD [Cue-Mate (R) (CM) 1.56 g; n = 17]; (ii) half-dose IPRD [0.78 g progesterone (P4); CM 0.78 g; n = 15]; (iii) half-dose IPRD + 300 IU equine chorionic gonadotrophin at IPRD removal (CM 0.78 g + G; n = 14); (iv) and a control group, 2x PGF2a [500 mu g prostaglandin F2a (PGF2a)] on Day -16 and -2 (n = 18). Intravaginal progesterone-releasing device-treated heifers received 250 mu g PGF2a at IPRD insertion (Day -10) and IPRD removal (Day -2) and 1 mg oestradiol benzoate on Day -10 and -1. Heifers were managed in a small feedlot and fed a defined ration. Ovarian function was evaluated by ultrasonography and plasma P4 throughout the synchronized and return cycles. Energy balance was evaluated using plasma insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I) and glucose concentrations. The impact of environmental stressors was evaluated using plasma cortisol concentration. Heifers that had normal ovarian function had significantly higher IGF-I concentrations at commencement of the experiment (p = 0.008) and significantly higher plasma glucose concentrations at Day -2 (p = 0.040) and Day 4 (p = 0.043), than heifers with abnormal ovarian function. There was no difference between the mean pre-ovulatory cortisol concentrations of heifers that ovulated or did not ovulate. However, heifers that ovulated had higher cortisol concentrations at Day 4 (p = 0.056) and 6 (p = 0.026) after ovulation than heifers that did not ovulate.
Resumo:
The lesser grain borer Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) is one of the most destructive insect pests of stored grain. This pest has been controlled successfully by fumigation with phosphine for the last several decades, though strong resistance to phosphine in many countries has raised concern about the long term usefulness of this control method. Previous genetic analysis of strongly resistant (SR) R. dominica from three widely geographically dispersed regions of Australia, Queensland (SRQLD), New South Wales (SRNSW) and South Australia (SRSA), revealed a resistance allele in the rph1 gene in all three strains. The present study confirms that the rph1 gene contributes to resistance in a fourth strongly resistant strain, SR2(QLD), also from Queensland. The previously described rph2 gene, which interacts synergistically with rph1 gene, confers strong resistance on SRQLD and SRNSW. We now provide strong circumstantial evidence that weak alleles of rph2, together with rph1, contribute to the strong resistance phenotypes of SRSA and SR2(QLD). To test the notion that rph1 and rph2 are solely responsible for the strong resistance phenotype of all resistant R. dominica, we created a strain derived by hybridising the four strongly resistant lines. Following repeated selection for survival at extreme rates of phosphine exposure, we found only slightly enhanced resistance. This suggests that a single sequence of genetic changes was responsible for the development of resistance in these insects.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Physical therapy for youth with cerebral palsy (CP) who are ambulatory includes interventions to increase functional mobility and participation in physical activity (PA). Thus, reliable and valid measures are needed to document PA in youth with CP. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate the inter-instrument reliability and concurrent validity of 3 accelerometer-based motion sensors with indirect calorimetry as the criterion for measuring PA intensity in youth with CP. METHODS Fifty-seven youth with CP (mean age=12.5 years, SD=3.3; 51% female; 49.1% with spastic hemiplegia) participated. Inclusion criteria were: aged 6 to 20 years, ambulatory, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I through III, able to follow directions, and able to complete the full PA protocol. Protocol activities included standardized activity trials with increasing PA intensity (resting, writing, household chores, active video games, and walking at 3 self-selected speeds), as measured by weight-relative oxygen uptake (in mL/kg/min). During each trial, participants wore bilateral accelerometers on the upper arms, waist/hip, and ankle and a portable indirect calorimeter. Intraclass coefficient correlations (ICCs) were calculated to evaluate inter-instrument reliability (left-to-right accelerometer placement). Spearman correlations were used to examine concurrent validity between accelerometer output (activity and step counts) and indirect calorimetry. Friedman analyses of variance with post hoc pair-wise analyses were conducted to examine the validity of accelerometers to discriminate PA intensity across activity trials. RESULTS All accelerometers exhibited excellent inter-instrument reliability (ICC=.94-.99) and good concurrent validity (rho=.70-.85). All accelerometers discriminated PA intensity across most activity trials. LIMITATIONS This PA protocol consisted of controlled activity trials. CONCLUSIONS Accelerometers provide valid and reliable measures of PA intensity among youth with CP.
Resumo:
Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.
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The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.
Resumo:
In order to assess the structural reliability of bridges, an accurate and cost effective Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technology is required to ensure their safe and reliable operation. Over 60% of the Australian National Highway System is prestressed concrete (PSC) bridges according to the Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics (1997). Most of the in-service bridges are more than 30 years old and may experience a heavier traffic load than their original intended level. Use of Ultrasonic waves is continuously increasing for (NDE) and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) in civil, aerospace, electrical, mechanical applications. Ultrasonic Lamb waves are becoming more popular for NDE because it can propagate long distance and reach hidden regions with less energy loses. The purpose of this study is to numerically quantify prestress force (PSF) of (PSC) beam using the fundamental theory of acoustic-elasticity. A three-dimension finite element modelling approach is set up to perform parametric studies in order to better understand how the lamb wave propagation in PSC beam is affected by changing in the PSF level. Results from acoustic-elastic measurement on prestressed beam are presented, showing the feasibility of the lamb wave for PSF evaluation in PSC bridges.
Resumo:
The apparent thermal activation energy of 0.56 eV and the electron thermal capture cross section of 2.0 × 10-16 cm2 are measured for the gold related acceptor level in p+ nn+ silicon diodes by isothermal current transient and DLTS techniques. Using the emission and capture rate data and a degeneracy ratio of 2, the energy separation of the trap level from the conduction band is calculated and found to have the same temperature dependence as the band gap indicating that the acceptor level is pinned with respect to the valence band a t Ev + 0.637 eV.
Resumo:
The main purpose of the research was to illustrate chemistry matriculation examination questions as a summative assessment tool, and represent how the questions have evolved over the years. Summative assessment and its various test item classifications, Finnish goal-oriented curriculum model, and Bloom’s Revised Taxonomy of Cognitive Objectives formed the theoretical framework for the research. The research data consisted of 257 chemistry questions from 28 matriculation examinations between 1996 and 2009. The analysed test questions were formulated according to the national upper secondary school chemistry curricula 1994, and 2003. Qualitative approach and theory-driven content analysis method were employed in the research. Peer review was used to guarantee the reliability of the results. The research was guided by the following questions: (a) What kinds of test item formats are used in chemistry matriculation examinations? (b) How the fundamentals of chemistry are included in the chemistry matriculation examination questions? (c) What kinds of cognitive knowledge and skills do the chemistry matriculation examination questions require? The research indicates that summative assessment was used diversely in chemistry matriculation examinations. The tests included various test item formats, and their combinations. The majority of the test questions were constructed-response items that were either verbal, quantitative, or experimental questions, symbol questions, or combinations of the aforementioned. The studied chemistry matriculation examinations seldom included selected-response items that can be either multiple-choice, alternate choice, or matching items. The relative emphasis of the test item formats differed slightly depending on whether the test was a part of an extensive general studies battery of tests in sciences and humanities, or a subject-specific test. The classification framework developed in the research can be applied in chemistry and science education, and also in educational research. Chemistry matriculation examinations are based on the goal-oriented curriculum model, and cover relatively well the fundamentals of chemistry included in the national curriculum. Most of the test questions related to the symbolism of chemical equation, inorganic and organic reaction types and applications, the bonding and spatial structure in organic compounds, and stoichiometry problems. Only a few questions related to electrolysis, polymers, or buffer solutions. None of the test questions related to composites. There were not any significant differences in the emphasis between the tests formulated according to the national curriculum 1994 or 2003. Chemistry matriculation examinations are cognitively demanding. The research shows that the majority of the test questions require higher-order cognitive skills. Most of the questions required analysis of procedural knowledge. The questions that only required remembering or processing metacognitive knowledge, were not included in the research data. The required knowledge and skill level varied slightly between the test questions in the extensive general studies battery of tests in sciences and humanities, and subject-specific tests administered since 2006. The proportion of the Finnish chemistry matriculation examination questions requiring higher-order cognitive knowledge and skills is very large compared to what is discussed in the research literature.
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Managing large variations in herbage production, resulting from highly variable seasonal rainfall, provides a major challenge for the sustainable management of Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grasslands in Australia. A grazing study with sheep was conducted between 1984 and 2010 on an Astrebla grassland in northern Queensland to describe the effects of a range of levels of utilisation of the herbage at the end of the summer growing season (April–May in northern Australia) on the sustainability of these grasslands. In unreplicated paddocks, sheep numbers were adjusted annually to achieve 0, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 80% utilisation of the herbage mass at the end of the summer over the ensuing 12 months. Higher levels of utilisation reduced both total and Astrebla spp. herbage mass because of the effects of higher utilisation on Astrebla spp. and this effect was accentuated by drought. The tussock density of Astrebla spp. varied widely among years but with few treatment differences until 2005 when density was reduced at the 50% level of utilisation. A major change in density resulted from a large recruitment of Astrebla spp. in 1989 that influenced its density for the remainder of the study. Basal area of the tussocks fluctuated among years, with increases due to rainfall and decreases during droughts. Seasonal rainfall was more influential than level of utilisation in changes to the basal area of perennial grasses. Drought resulted in the death of Astrebla spp. tussocks and this effect was accentuated at higher levels of utilisation. A series of three grazing exclosures were used to examine the recovery of the density and basal area of Astrebla spp. after it had been reduced by 80% utilisation over the preceding 9 years. This recovery study indicated that, although grazing exclusion was useful in the recovery of Astrebla spp., above-average rainfall was the major factor driving increases in the basal area of perennial grasses. Spring values of the Southern Oscillation Index and associated rainfall probabilities were considered to have potential for understanding the dynamics of Astrebla spp. It was concluded that Astrebla grassland remained sustainable after 26 years when grazed at up to 30% utilisation, while, at 50% utilisation, they became unsustainable after 20 years. Results from this study emphasised the need to maintain the population of Astrebla spp. tussocks.
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The occurrence of interstitial species in Astrebla grasslands in Australia are influenced by grazing and seasonal rainfall but the interactions of these two influences are complex. This paper describes three studies aimed at determining and explaining the changes in plant species richness and abundance of the interstitial species in a long-term sheep utilisation experiment in an Astrebla grassland in northern Queensland. In the first study, increasing utilisation increased the frequency of Dactyloctenium radulans (Button grass) and Brachyachne convergens (Downs couch) and reduced that of Streptoglossa adscendens (Mint bush). In the second study, seasonal rainfall variation between 1984 and 2009 resulted in large annual differences in the size of the seed banks of many species, but increasing utilisation consistently reduced the seed bank of species such as Astrebla spp. and S. adscendens and increased that of species such as B. convergens, D. radulans, Amaranthus mitchellii (Boggabri) and Boerhavia sp. (Tar vine). In the third study, the highest species richness occurred at the lightest utilisation because of the presence of a range of palatable forbs, especially legumes. Species richness was reduced as utilisation increased. Species richness in the grazing exclosure was low and similar to that at the heaviest utilisation where there was a reduction in the presence of palatable forb species. The pattern of highest species richness at the lightest grazing treatment was maintained across three sampling times, even with different amounts of seasonal rainfall, but there was a large yearly variation in both the density and frequency of many species. It was concluded that the maintenance of highest species richness at the lightest utilisation was not aligned with other data from this grazing experiment which indicated that the maximum sustainable wool production occurred at moderate utilisation.
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A high proportion of the Australian and New Zealand dairy industry is based on a relatively simple, low input and low cost pasture feedbase. These factors enable this type of production system to remain internationally competitive. However, a key limitation of pasture-based dairy systems is periodic imbalances between herd intake requirements and pasture DM production, caused by strong seasonality and high inter-annual variation in feed supply. This disparity can be moderated to a certain degree through the strategic management of the herd through altering calving dates and stocking rates, and the feedbase by conserving excess forage and irrigating to flatten seasonal forage availability. Australasian dairy systems are experiencing emerging market and environmental challenges, which includes increased competition for land and water resources, decreasing terms of trade, a changing and variable climate, an increasing environmental focus that requires improved nutrient and water-use efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions. The integration of complementary forages has long been viewed as a means to manipulate the home-grown feed supply, to improve the nutritive value and DM intake of the diet, and to increase the efficiency of inputs utilised. Only recently has integrating complementary forages at the whole-farm system level received the significant attention and investment required to examine their potential benefit. Recent whole-of-farm research undertaken in both Australia and New Zealand has highlighted the importance of understanding the challenges of the current feedbase and the level of complementarity between forage types required to improve profit, manage risk and/or alleviate/mitigate against adverse outcomes. This paper reviews the most recent systems-level research into complementary forages, discusses approaches to modelling their integration at the whole-farm level and highlights the potential of complementary forages to address the major challenges currently facing pasture-based dairy systems.