Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Validity of the ice shelf water plume concept beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf

In winter, brine rejection from sea ice formation and export in the Weddell Sea, offshore of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), leads to the formation of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW). This dense water mass enters the cavity beneath FRIS by sinking southward down the sloping continental shelf towards the grounding line. Melting occurs when the HSSW encounters the ice shelf, and the meltwater released cools and freshens the HSSW to form a water mass known as Ice Shelf Water (ISW). If this ISW rises, the ‘ice pump’ is initiated (Lewis and Perkin, 1986), whereby the ascending ISW becomes supercooled and deposits marine ice at shallower locations due to the pressure increase in the in-situ freezing temperature. Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) were able to infer the thickness patterns of marine ice deposits at the base of FRIS (figure 1), so the primary aim of this work is to try to understand the ocean flows that determine these patterns. The plume model we use to investigate ISW flow is described fully by Holland and Feltham (accepted) so only a relatively brief outline is presented here. The plume is simulated by combining a parameterisation of ice shelf basal interaction and a multiplesize- class frazil dynamics model with an unsteady, depth-averaged reduced-gravity plume model. In the model an active region of ISW evolves above and within an expanse of stagnant ambient fluid, which is considered to be ice-free and has fixed profiles of temperature and salinity. The two main assumptions of the model are that there is a well-mixed layer underneath the ice shelf and that the ambient fluid outside the plume is stagnant with fixed properties. The topography of the ice shelf that the plume flows beneath is set to the FRIS ice shelf draft calculated by Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) masked with the grounding line from the Antarctic Digital Database (ADD Consortium, 2002). To initiate the plumes, we assume that the intrusion of dense HSSW initially causes melting at the points on the grounding line where the glaciological tributaries feeding FRIS go afloat.

The effect of (mis-specified) GARCH filters on the finite sample distribution of the BDS test

This paper considers the effect of using a GARCH filter on the properties of the BDS test statistic as well as a number of other issues relating to the application of the test. It is found that, for certain values of the user-adjustable parameters, the finite sample distribution of the test is far-removed from asymptotic normality. In particular, when data generated from some completely different model class are filtered through a GARCH model, the frequency of rejection of iid falls, often substantially. The implication of this result is that it might be inappropriate to use non-rejection of iid of the standardised residuals of a GARCH model as evidence that the GARCH model ‘fits’ the data.

Parent-child interactions and adolescent anxiety: a systematic review

Parental behaviours have been implicated in the development and maintenance of anxiety in children and young people; however the degree to which findings apply to adolescents specifically remains unclear. We conducted a systematic review of studies examining the evidence for an association between parental behaviours and adolescent anxiety. Twenty two studies were identified. The results of this systematic review provide fairly consistent preliminary evidence for an association between anxiety and perceived parental control and anxious rearing in adolescence. The findings relating to an association between adolescent anxiety and perceived parental rejection and lack of warmth are somewhat less consistent. Methodological shortcomings in the studies mean that these results should be interpreted with caution. Future research should be conducted using observational and experimental design with adolescents from referred, clinical populations to help identify the critical parental processes and clarify the direction of effects.

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Introducing children with special educational needs to theatre through ‘Relaxed Performances’

This short chapter explains how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements.

Widening participation in theatre through ‘relaxed performances’

This paper what 'relaxed performances' are and how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer them to families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements and reports on the positive effects one particular relaxed performance had on some of those who attended.

Robust multimodal face and fingerprint fusion in the presence of spoofing attacks

Anti-spoofing is attracting growing interest in biometrics, considering the variety of fake materials and new means to attack biometric recognition systems. New unseen materials continuously challenge state-of-the-art spoofing detectors, suggesting for additional systematic approaches to target anti-spoofing. By incorporating liveness scores into the biometric fusion process, recognition accuracy can be enhanced, but traditional sum-rule based fusion algorithms are known to be highly sensitive to single spoofed instances. This paper investigates 1-median filtering as a spoofing-resistant generalised alternative to the sum-rule targeting the problem of partial multibiometric spoofing where m out of n biometric sources to be combined are attacked. Augmenting previous work, this paper investigates the dynamic detection and rejection of livenessrecognition pair outliers for spoofed samples in true multi-modal configuration with its inherent challenge of normalisation. As a further contribution, bootstrap aggregating (bagging) classifiers for fingerprint spoof-detection algorithm is presented. Experiments on the latest face video databases (Idiap Replay- Attack Database and CASIA Face Anti-Spoofing Database), and fingerprint spoofing database (Fingerprint Liveness Detection Competition 2013) illustrate the efficiency of proposed techniques.

Sea ice production and water mass modification in the eastern Laptev Sea

A simple polynya flux model driven by standard atmospheric forcing is used to investigate the ice formation that took place during an exceptionally strong and consistent western New Siberian (WNS) polynya event in 2004 in the Laptev Sea. Whether formation rates are high enough to erode the stratification of the water column beneath is examined by adding the brine released during the 2004 polynya event to the average winter density stratification of the water body, preconditioned by summers with a cyclonic atmospheric forcing (comparatively weakly stratified water column). Beforehand, the model performance is tested through a simulation of a well‐documented event in April 2008. Neglecting the replenishment of water masses by advection into the polynya area, we find the probability for the occurrence of density‐driven convection down to the bottom to be low. Our findings can be explained by the distinct vertical density gradient that characterizes the area of the WNS polynya and the apparent lack of extreme events in the eastern Laptev Sea. The simple approach is expected to be sufficiently rigorous, since the simulated event is exceptionally strong and consistent, the ice production and salt rejection rates are likely to be overestimated, and the amount of salt rejected is distrusted over a comparatively weakly stratified water column. We conclude that the observed erosion of the halocline and formation of vertically mixed water layers during a WNS polynya event is therefore predominantly related to wind‐ and tidally driven turbulent mixing processes.

Diet and food selection by small mammals in an old-growth Atlantic forest of south-eastern Brazil

Here we describe the stomach contents of nine small mammal species (seven rodents and two didelphid marsupials) co-occurring in an old-growth Atlantic forest area. For four terrestrial rodents, we also compared the importance of arthropods in the diet and the selection of arthropod groups by comparing consumption with availability. Small mammals and arthropods were sampled in a 36-ha grid containing 25 sampling stations spaced every 150 m, and 47 stomach contents were analysed. While plant matter was the predominant item in the stomach contents of two rodents (Oligoryzomys nigripes and Rhipidomys mastacalis), four species presented arthropods as the main food item (the rodents Brucepattersonius soricinus and Oxymycterus dasytrichus, and the marsupials Monodelphis n. sp. and Marmosops incanus) and three consumed more plant matter than arthropods, but had significant amounts of both items (the rodents Delomys sublineatus, Euryoryzomys russatus and Thaptomys nigrita). Our results suggest that differences in diet, coupled with differences in habit and microhabitat preferences, are important factors allowing resource partition among species of the diverse group of co-occurring terrestrial small mammals in Atlantic forest areas. Moreover, arthropods were not preyed opportunistically by any of the four terrestrial rodents, since consumption was not proportional to availability. Rather, selection or rejection of arthropod groups seems to be determined by aspects other than availability, such as nutritional value, easiness of capture and handling or palatability.

Expression of TLR-4 and -2 in peripheral mononuclear cells in renal transplant patients with TLR-4 gene polymorphism

Introduction: TLR-4 has also been identified as a receptor for endogenous alarmins, which are increased post transplantation. TLR-4 has also been associated with a polymorphism that could impact graft outcome. Objective: To assess the expression of TLR-4 in kidney transplant patients carrying or not a polymorphism. Methods: TLR-4 polymorphism (A299G/T399I) was studied in 200 renal transplant patients. Healthy volunteers were also enrolled as control group. The polymorphism analysis was performed using restriction enzymes technique (RFLP). Functionality of TLR-4 polymorphism was assessed in samples from controls by quantification of TNF-alpha after LPS stimulus. TLR-4 and -2 expressions were also analyzed by flow cytometry. Results: TLR-4 polymorphism was present in 8.5% of renal transplant patients. This polymorphism was associated with impairment in TNF-alpha secretion. In general, in renal transplant patients, TLR-4 expression in monocytes and in neutrophils was lower than in health volunteers. TLR-2 and TLR-4 expressions in healthy volunteers with A299G/T399I TLR-4 polymorphism was higher than in wild-type genotype healthy volunteers (p<0.01 and p<0.05, respectively), and also higher than A299G/T399I TLR-4 polymorphism renal transplant patients (p<0.05). TLR-2 expression on neutrophils in wild-type genotype renal transplant patients was higher compared to wild-type genotype healthy volunteers, and was also higher in relation to A299G/T399I kidney transplanted patients (p<0.01). Conclusion: Stable renal transplant patients with TLR-4 polymorphism have a lower expression of TLR-4 and TLR-2 receptors in peripheral mononuclear cells, which ultimately indicate a less responsiveness for alarmins. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vimentin Expression and Myofibroblast Infiltration Are Early Markers of Renal Dysfunction in Kidney Transplantation: An Early Stage of Chronic Allograft Dysfunction?

Introduction. The objective of this study was to show the morphologic characteristics of allograft renal biopsies in renal transplant patients with stable renal function, which can potentially be early markers of allograft dysfunction, after 5 years of follow-up. Methods. Forty-nine renal transplant patients with stable renal function were submitted to renal biopsies and simultaneous measurement of serum creatinine (Cr). Histology was evaluated using Banff scores, determination of interstitial fibrosis by Sirius red staining and immunohistochemical study of proximal tubule and interstitial compartment (using cytokeratin, vimentin, and myofibroblasts as markers). Biopsies were evaluated according to the presence or absence of the epitheliomesenchymal transition (EMT). The interstitial presence of myofibroblasts and tubular presence of vimentin was also analyzed simultaneously. Renal function was measured over the follow-up period to estimate the reduction of graft function. Results. Median posttransplant time at enrollment was 105 days. Patients were followed for 64.3 +/- 8.5 months. The mean Cr at biopsy time was 1.44 +/- 0.33 mg/dL, and after the follow-up it was 1.29 +/- 0.27 mg/dL. Nine patients (19%) had a reduction of their graft function. Eleven biopsies (22%) had tubulointerstitial alterations according to Banff score. Seventeen biopsies (34%) presented EMT. Fifteen biopsies (32%) had high interstitial expression of myofibroblasts and tubular vimentin. Using Cox multivariate analysis, HLA and high expression of interstitial myofibroblasts and tubular vimentin were associated with reduction of graft function, yielding a risk of 3.3 (P = .033) and 9.8 (P = .015), respectively. Conclusion. Fibrogenesis mechanisms occur very early after transplantation and are risk factors for long-term renal function deterioration.

Improved renal function after kidney transplantation is associated with heme oxygenase-1 polymorphism

Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) has a microsatellite polymorphism based on the number of guanosine-thymidine nucleotide repeats (GT) repeats that regulates expression levels and could have an impact on organ survival post-injury. We correlated HO-1 polymorphism with renal graft function. The HO-1 gene was sequenced (N = 181), and the allelic repeats were divided into subclasses: short repeats (S) (< 27 repeats) and long repeats (L) (>= 27 repeats). A total of 47.5% of the donors carried the S allele. The allograft function was statistically improved six months, two and three yr after transplantation in patients receiving kidneys from donors with an S allele. For the recipients carrying the S allele (50.3%), the allograft function was also better throughout the follow-up, but reached statistical significance only three yr after transplantation (p = 0.04). Considering only those patients who had chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN; 74 of 181), allograft function was also better in donors and in recipients carrying the S allele, two and three yr after transplantation (p = 0.03). Recipients of kidney transplantation from donors carrying the S allele presented better function even in the presence of CAN.

Maximal inflammatory response benefits syngeneic skin graft acceptance

Objective: We investigated the influence of acute inflammation in skin isograft acceptance. Methods: Two mouse lines selected for maximal (AIR(MAX)) or minimal inflammatory response (AIR(MIN)) were transplanted with syngeneic skin. Cellular infiltrates and cytokine production were measured 1, 3, 7 or 14 days post-transplantation. The percentage of CD4(+) CD25(+) Foxp3(+) cells in the lymph nodes was also evaluated. Results: Grafts were totally accepted in 100% of AIR(MAX) and in 26% of AIR(MIN) mice. In the latter, partial acceptance was observed in 74% of the animals. Emigrated cells were basically PMN and were enhanced in AIR(MAX) transplants. IL-10 production by graft infiltrating cells showed no interline differences. IFN-gamma was increased in AIR(MIN) grafts at day 14 and lower percentages of CD4(+)CD25(+)Foxp3(+) cells in the lymph nodes were observed in these mice. Conclusions: Our data suggest that differences in graft acceptance might be due to a lack of appropriate regulation of the inflammatory response in AIR(MIN) mice compromising the self/non-self recognition.

Trigger and aperture of the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory consists of 1600 water-Cherenkov detectors, for the study of extensive air showers (EAS) generated by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. We describe the trigger hierarchy, from the identification of candidate showers at the level of a single detector, amongst a large background (mainly random single cosmic ray muons), up to the selection of real events and the rejection of random coincidences. Such trigger makes the surface detector array fully efficient for the detection of EAS with energy above 3 x 10(18) eV, for all zenith angles between 0 degrees and 60 degrees, independently of the position of the impact point and of the mass of the primary particle. In these range of energies and angles, the exposure of the surface array can be determined purely on the basis of the geometrical acceptance. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.