Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Some practical advice on polynomial regression analysis from blocked response surface designs

It is often necessary to run response surface designs in blocks. In this paper the analysis of data from such experiments, using polynomial regression models, is discussed. The definition and estimation of pure error in blocked designs are considered. It is recommended that pure error is estimated by assuming additive block and treatment effects, as this is more consistent with designs without blocking. The recovery of inter-block information using REML analysis is discussed, although it is shown that it has very little impact if thc design is nearly orthogonally blocked. Finally prediction from blocked designs is considered and it is shown that prediction of many quantities of interest is much simpler than prediction of the response itself.

Seasonal changes in vegetative growth and photosynthesis of Arabica coffee trees

Seasonal changes in vegetative growth, leaf gas exchanges, carbon isotope discrimination (Delta) and carbohydrate status were monitored in de-fruited coffee trees (Coffea arabica L.) grown in the field, from October 1998 through September 1999, in Vicosa (20degrees45'S, 42degrees15'W, 650 m a.s.l.), southeastern Brazil. of the total growth over the 12-month study period, 78% occurred in the warm, rainy season (October-March), and 22% during the cool, dry season (April-September). Throughout the active growth period, the rate of net carbon assimilation (A) averaged 8.6 mumol m(-2) s(-1), against 3.4 mumol m(-2) s(-1) during the period of reduced growth. In the active period, growth, unlike A or Delta, was strongly negatively correlated with air temperature. In contrast, growth and A were both correlated positively, and Delta correlated negatively, with air temperature during the reduced growth period. However, the depressions of A and growth might have simply run in parallel, without any causal relationship. Changes in A appeared to be largely due to stomatal limitations in the active growing season, with non-stomatal ones prevailing in the slow growth period. Foliar carbohydrates seemed not to have contributed appreciably to changes in growth rates and photosynthesis. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen-tixing and vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal symbioses in some tropical legume trees of tribe Mimoseae

Response to mineral fertilization and inoculation with rhizobia and/or arbuscular mycorrhiza fungi (AMF) of the Anadenanthera colubrina, Mimosa bimucronata and Parapiptadenia rigida (Leguminosae-Mimosoideae) native trees from Brazilian riparian forests, were studied in nursery conditions. Each species was submitted to seven treatments, varying nitrogen and phosphorous fertilization and inoculation with rhizobia (r), mycorrhiza (m) or both (rm): NP, P, P + r, P + rm, N, N + m and N + rm. Results showed that AMF inoculations did not enhance the mycorrhizal colonization, and P uptake was not sufficient to sustain good growth of plants. The level of P mineral added affected negatively the AMF colonization in A. colubrina and M. bimucronata, but not in P. rigida. Native fungi infected the three legume hosts. The absence of mineral N limited growth of A. colubrina and P. rigida, but in M. bimucronata the lack of N was corrected by biological nitrogen fixation. N mineral added inhibited the nodulation, although spontaneous nodulation had occurred in A. colubrina and M. bimucronata. Rhizobia inoculation enhanced the number of nodules, nitrogenase activity and leghemoglobin content of these two species. Thus, the extent of rhizobial and mycorrhizal symbiosis in these species under nursery conditions can affect growth and consequently the post-planting success. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil profile, relief features and their relation to structure and distribution of Brazilian Atlantic rain forest trees

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Leaf gas exchange and fruit yield in sweet orange trees as affected by citrus variegated chlorosis and environmental conditions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seasonal effects on the relationship between photosynthesis and leaf carbohydrates in orange trees

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gene and species trees of a Neotropical group of treefrogs: Genetic diversification in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the origin of a polyploid species

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Carbon Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Profiles coupled to Partial Least-Squares Multivariate Regression for Prediction of Several Physicochemical Parameters of Brazilian Commercial Gasoline

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Review about mites (Acari) of rubber trees (Hevea spp., Euphorbiaceae) in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Occurrence and significance of ovarian and follicular regression in cachara Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Linnaeus, 1766): a histology approach

Estudaram-se os processos de regressão ovariana e atresia folicular em cachara, Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, mantida em cativeiro, na reprodução não induzida por hormônios. As características macro e microscópicas (diâmetro dos ovócitos e histologia) dos ovários foram descritas a cada 20 dias, em quatro estádios: na regressão inicial (Rg I - os primeiros 20 dias), na regressão intermediária (Rg II - do 21º ao 40º dia), na regressão final (Rg III - do 41º ao 80º dia) e na fase de recuperação ou de repouso II (R II - do 81º ao 150º dia). O experimento foi realizado do final de janeiro (verão-dias longos) a maio (outono-dias curtos). No início do experimento, as amostras apresentaram ovócitos com diâmetros que variaram de 437,5 a 1.187,5mm, sugerindo encontrarem-se nas fases perinucleolar, de maturação final e atrésicos. Aos 150 dias, os diâmetros atingiram os menores valores e pôde-se visualizar a zona radiata rompida e o vitelo reabsorvido. Concomitantemente, houve diminuição abrupta dos valores médios do índice gonadossomático, da temperatura da água, das horas de luz e de chuva. A involução gradual do longo processo foi dinâmica e complexa, afetando o êxito da desova (taxas de fertilização, de eclosão e de sobrevivência de larvas) e, conseqüentemente, o sistema produtivo.

Effects of irrigation and nitrogen levels on qualitative and nutritional aspects of fig-trees (Ficus carica L.)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

FLIGHT RANGE of AFRICANIZED HONEYBEES, Apis mellifera L. 1758 (Hymenoptera: Apidae) IN AN APPLE GROVE

O estudo do raio de ação das abelhas na coleta de néctar e pólen é de extrema importância para se saber até que distância a polinização por este inseto é promovida com eficiência. Para tanto, cinco colônias de abelhas africanizadas marcadas com 32P foram levadas a um pomar de maçã, sendo agrupadas no centro de uma área de 0,8 ha, a partir do qual foram colocadas estacas a cada 10m, formando quatro alas correspondentes às direções Norte, Sul, Leste e Oeste. As abelhas foram capturadas duas vezes por dia e por dez dias consecutivos, quando visitavam as flores das macieiras, até 50m do centro. Verificou-se que o número de abelhas marcadas coletadas, diminuiu linearmente à medida em que as mesmas se afastavam das colméias. Não houve interferência das orientações geográficas no comportamento de vôo das abelhas.