Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Integrating technology and operations in a developing country context

The importance of technology to developing countries is widely recognised as they compete internationally and develop internally. Firms acquire technology by different means and from diverse sources, and they possess varying levels of competence. Since countries are at various stages of economic and technological development, prescriptive approaches to technology and operations integration are not appropriate. The paper discusses factors in the literature that affect the integration of technology and operations in developing countries. Country similarities and differences also play a role, so the study examines three developing countries: Brazil, India and South Africa. These countries are emerging from periods of regulation and have developed certain sectors of their economies. Empirical evidence is provided from a study of managers in South Africa who were asked to assess the important factors in technology integration, and to score the extent to which they can control these. Results from the study concur with the literature regarding the importance of a country’s political stability and its policies towards new investment and infrastructure. Knowledge and understanding of technology are essential for successful integration in countries with insufficient skilled personnel, and where education levels are low.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Evaluation of research in efficiency and productivity:a survey and analysis of the first 30 years of scholarly literature in DEA

Since the original Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) study by Charnes et al. [Measuring the efficiency of decision-making units. European Journal of Operational Research 1978;2(6):429–44], there has been rapid and continuous growth in the field. As a result, a considerable amount of published research has appeared, with a significant portion focused on DEA applications of efficiency and productivity in both public and private sector activities. While several bibliographic collections have been reported, a comprehensive listing and analysis of DEA research covering its first 30 years of history is not available. This paper thus presents an extensive, if not nearly complete, listing of DEA research covering theoretical developments as well as “real-world” applications from inception to the year 2007. A listing of the most utilized/relevant journals, a keyword analysis, and selected statistics are presented.

The causal relationship between information and communication technology and foreign direct investment

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economic development for the period 1976-99. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI in developed countries, which means that a higher level of ICT investment leads to an increase inflow of FDI. ICT may contribute to economic growth indirectly by attracting more FDI. Contrarily, we could not find significant causality from ICT to FDI in developing countries. Instead, we have partial evidence of opposite causality relationship: the inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and production capacity. © United Nations University 2006.

Innovation, productivity and growth in US business services:a firm-level analysis

This paper examines the impact of innovation on the performance of US business service firms. We distinguish between different levels of innovation (new-to-market and new-to-firm) in our analysis, and allow explicitly for sample selection issues. Reflecting the literature, which highlights the importance of external interaction in service innovation, we pay particular attention to the role of external innovation linkages and their effect on business performance. We find that the presence of service innovation and its extent has a consistently positive effect on growth, but no effect on productivity. There is evidence that the growth effect of innovation can be attributed, at least in part, to the external linkages maintained by innovators in the process of innovation. External linkages have an overwhelmingly positive effect on (innovator) firm performance, regardless of whether innovation is measured as a discrete or continuous variable, and regardless of the level of innovation considered.

Innovation, ownership and profitability

This paper considers the relationship between innovation, ownership and profitability for a panel of manufacturing plants in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Previous literature suggests that innovators are persistently more profitable than non-innovators, but little is known about how this link is moderated by external versus domestic ownership. We consider the link between innovation and profits separately for indigenous innovators and non-innovators and externally-owned plants. We also consider the determinants of innovation over the distribution of plant-level profitability, and find that the determinants of profitability – including innovation and external ownership – vary over the distribution from low to high profitability plants. We find support for the view that innovators and non-innovators have different profitability determinants, and that the profitability of externally-owned plants depends on very different factors to those of indigenously-owned enterprises.

Service innovation, embeddedness and business performance:evidence from Northern Ireland

This paper explores the factors that determine innovation by service firms, and in particular the contribution of intra- and extra-regional connectivity. Subsequently, it is examined how service firms' innovation activity relates to productivity and export behaviour. The empirical analysis is based on matched data from the 2005 UK Innovation Survey - the UK component of the 4th Community Innovation Survey (CIS) - and the Annual Business Inquiry for Northern Ireland. Evidence is found of negative intra-regional embeddedness effects, but there is a positive contribution to innovation from extra-regional connectivity, particularly links to customers. Relationships between innovation, exporting, and productivity prove complex, but suggest that innovation itself is not sufficient to generate productivity improvements. Only when innovation is combined with increased export activity are productivity gains evident.

Innovation, ownership and profitability

There is lots of evidence that innovating firms are persistently more profitable than non-innovators, but little agreement on why this is the case. It may be because innovators are somehow able to protect their new products from the competition which normally erodes profits, or because innovating firms have superior capabilities and are able to introduce multiple innovations over time. And very little is known about the relationship between innovation, external ownership and profitability, despite the fact that foreign-owned firms are frequently highly innovative and very profitable. This paper considers the relationship between innovation, ownership and profitability for a panel of manufacturing plants in Ireland and Northern Ireland. We consider the link between innovation and profits separately for innovators and non-innovators, and for indigenous innovators and non-innovators and externally-owned plants. We also consider the determinants of innovation over the distribution of plant-level profitability, and find that the determinants of profitability – including innovation and external ownership – are quite different for low and high-profitability plants. We find support for the view that innovators and non-innovators have different profitability determinants, and that externally-owned plants have their profitability determined in a quite different way from indigenous enterprises. For indigenous non-innovators only the sector matters. Profitability in these enterprises is dictated largely by the industry they are in, with plants having virtually no means of differentiating their profitability from the norms of the industry. By contrast, indigenously-owned innovators are able to differentiate their profit performance from industry norms to some extent. Absolute size matters (negatively) and they get a strong boost from product innovation, but having a high market share does not matter for the profitability of indigenously-owned innovators. Externally-owned plants have a quite different set of profitability determinants from both of these groups. What matters for these plants is not the boost they get from innovating (there is none) but instead their position in the domestic market – a high market share boosts profitability. In policy terms our results suggest both optimistic and cautionary messages. On the positive side our results suggest that efforts to promote innovation activity among indigenously-owned plants are likely to have significant longer term benefits through their capability effects. For the development agencies in Ireland this is a reassuring result. On the more negative side, the lack of any relationship in our models between the innovation activities of externally-owned plants and their (profitability) performance raises potential concerns. This finding may reflect the lack of linkages between externally-owned plants and their Irish resource base, in turn raising some worrying issues about the ‘embeddedness’ of much FDI into Ireland and therefore its ‘stickiness’ in the face of Ireland’s increasing high relative cost base.

The limits of open innovation:openness and (quasi-)markets in the organization of innovation

Recent studies have stressed the importance of ‘open innovation’ as a means of enhancing innovation performance. The essence of the open innovation model is to take advantage of external as well as internal knowledge sources in developing and commercialising innovation, so avoiding an excessively narrow internal focus in a key area of corporate activity. Although the external aspect of open innovation is often stressed, another key aspect involves maximising the flow of ideas and knowledge from different sources within the firm, for example through knowledge sharing via the use of cross-functional teams. A fully open innovation approach would therefore combine both aspects i.e. cross-functional teams with boundary-spanning knowledge linkages. This suggests that there should be complementarities between the use cross-functional teams with boundary-spanning knowledge linkages i.e. the returns to implementing open innovation in one innovation activity is should be greater if open innovation is already in place in another innovation activity. However, our findings – based on a large sample of UK and German manufacturing plants – do not support this view. Our results suggest that in practice the benefits envisaged in the open innovation model are not generally achievable by the majority of plants, and that instead the adoption of open innovation across the whole innovation process is likely to reduce innovation outputs. Our results provide some guidance on the type of activities where the adoption of a market-based governance structure such as open innovation may be most valuable. This is likely to be in innovation activities where search is deterministic, activities are separable, and where the required level of knowledge sharing is correspondingly moderate – in other words those activities which are more routinized. For this type of activity market-based governance mechanisms (i.e. open innovation) may well be more efficient than hierarchical governance structures. For other innovation activities where outcomes are more uncertain and unpredictable and the risks of knowledge exchange hazards are greater, quasi-market based governance structures such as open innovation are likely to be subject to rapidly diminishing returns in terms of innovation outputs.

Service innovation, embeddedness and business performance:UK regional evidence

This paper asks to question. First, what types of linkages make firms in the service sector innovate? And second, what is the link between innovation and the firms’ productivity and export performance? Using survey data from Northern Ireland we find that links intra-regional links (i.e. within Northern Ireland) to customers, suppliers and universities have little effect on innovation, but external links (i.e. outside Northern Ireland) help to boost innovation. Relationships between innovation, exporting and productivity prove complex but suggest that innovation itself is not sufficient to generate productivity improvements. Only when innovation is combined with increased export activity are productivity gains produced. This suggests that regional innovation policy should be oriented towards helping firms to innovate only where it helps firms to enter export markets or to expand their existing export market presence.