Value added logistical support service Part 2. Outsourcing process of spare part logistics in metal industry

The aim of this research study was to find out guidelines for outsourcing of logistics processes. The study was outlined to spare parts and `business-to-business' (B2B) markets in metal industry. This study can be applied as a manual for outsourcing especially warehousing and transportation activities. The study also touches other important areas of spare part logistics like manufacturing, customer service, procurement, quality control, reverse and recycling logistics, logistics technologies and valueadded services. The method of study consisted of three areas. Firstly exchanging views with logistics experts in participating companies, and secondly compiling material based on author's practical experience in logistics business with several international and domestic logistics service providers and vendors. Thirdlythe study includes also references to literature material. Due to the fact thatthe outsourcing of logistics functions can be handled widely and from differentpoint of views, in this study it is concentrated mainly on giving general levelguidelines for defining logistics strategy, hints both for tendering process and implementation project, and not forgetting the aftercare of business partnership.

Market Study of Electric Drive Motion Control Business

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia älykkäiden paikoituskäyttöjen markkinoita ja liiketoimintamalleja. Työn pääongelmina oli määritellä alalla käytössä olevaa terminologiaa, määrittää markkinoiden koko paikoitusominaisuudet omaaville kolmivaihetaajuusmuuttajille, tutkia viiden alalla toimivan paikoituskäyttötoimittajan liiketoimintarakenteita ja tuotteita teknisestä näkökulmasta sekä esitellä kaksi teollisuuden käyttökohdetta paikoituskäytölle. Työn sisältö voidaan jakaa neljään eri osioon. Terminologian määrittely- ja markkinatutkimusosiot perustuvat pääasiassa kirjallisuustutkimukseen. Paikoituskäyttöjen toimittajia sekä niiden tuotteita käsittelevä osuus perustuu kirjallisuustutkimukseen sekä teknisiin esitteisiin ja manuaaleihin. Paikoituskäyttöjen sovellusesimerkit on selvitetty haastatteluin. Työ painottuu paikoituskäyttötoimittajien tuotteiden, tuoteominaisuuksien ja tuotetarjonnan tarkasteluun. Työn tuloksena on määritelty paikoituskäyttöjen liiketoiminnan tärkeimmät termit, paikoituskäyttöjen markkinoiden koko sekä markkinoiden koko paikoitusominaisuudet omaavalle kolmivaihetaajuusmuuttajalle. Alalla toimivien paikoituskäyttötoimittajien liiketoimintarakenne on selvitetty, jonka mukaan toimittajat on profiloitu komponentti-, komponenttipaketti-, toimialakeskeisiksi tai automaatiotoimittajiksi. Toimittajien paikoituskäyttötuotteet on luokiteltu viiteen eri luokkaan niiden teknisten ominaisuuksien perusteella. Lisäksi paikoituskäyttöjen suorituskyvyt on selvitetty säätimien momentti-, nopeus-, ja paikoituslaskenta-aikatasojen sekä kenttäväyläliityntöjen suhteen. Työssä kuvatut vanerinsorvausprosessi sekä FMS -materiaalinkäsittelyprosessi esittävät paikoituskäyttöjen potentiaalisia sovelluskohteita.

Agent-augmented process automation system in a panel board factory

Kiristyvä kansainvälinen kilpailu pakottaa automaatiojärjestelmien valmistajat ottamaan käyttöön uusia menetelmiä, joiden avulla järjestelmien suorituskykyä ja joustavuutta saadaan parannettua. Agenttiteknologiaa on esitetty käytettäväksi olemassa olevien automaatiojärjestelmien kanssa vastaamaan automaatiolle asetettaviin uusiin haasteisiin. Agentit ovat itsenäisiä yhteisöllisiä toimijoita, jotka suorittavat niille ennalta määrättyjä tehtäviä. Ne tarjoavat yhtenäisen kehyksen kehittyneiden toimintojen toteutukselle. Agenttiteknologian avulla automaatiojärjestelmä saadaan toimimaan joustavasti ja vikasietoisesti. Tässä työssä selostetaan agenttiteknologian ajatuksia ja käsitteitä. Lisäksi selvitetään sen soveltuvuutta monimutkaisten ohjausjärjestelmien kehittämiseen ja etsitään käyttökohteita sen soveltamiselle levytehtaassa. Työssä käsitellään myös aatteita, jotka ovat johtaneet agenttiteknologian käyttöön automaatiojärjestelmissä, sekä selostetaan agenttiavusteisen esimerkkisovelluksen rakenne ja testitulokset. Tutkimuksen tuloksena löydettiin useita kohteita agenttiteknologian käytölle levytehtaassa. Esimerkkisovellus osoittaa sen sopivan hyvin kehittyneiden toimintojen toteutukseen automaatiojärjestelmissä.

Purchasing Process Performance Definition and Improvement in the Mechanical Wood Industry

Tämän tutkimuksen ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli määrittää Schauman Wood Oy:n ostoprosessin suorituskyvyn nykytila yrityksen Suomen yksiköissä. Nykytila-arviointi suoritettiin uusien ja käytössä olevien mittaustulosten avulla. Tutkimuksessa verrattiin kymmenen tuotantolaitoksen ostoprosesseja keskenään. Keskeinen tutkimusongelma oli ostoprosessin suorituseroja aikaansaavien tekijöiden selvittäminen eri yksiköissä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli saavuttaa yhtenäisemmät toimintatavat yrityksessä sekä laajentaa konsernin osto-organisaation hyödyntämistä hankintatoimessa. Tavoitteena oli ostoprosessin virtaviivaistaminen ja tehokkaamman seurantajärjestelmän kehittäminen. Ostotoimintojen suorituskyvyn jatkuva parantaminen perustuu osittain uusien mittareiden avulla saatavaan informaatioon ja täsmällisempään seurantaan. Sisäistä benchmarkingia käytettiin työkaluna suorituskyky-eroavaisuuksien määrittelyssä. Tietoa erilaisista toimintatavoista kerättiin haastattelemalla yrityksen ostajia ja tehdaspalvelupäälliköitä eri tehdaspaikkakunnilla. Sisäisen benchmarkingin avulla määriteltiin toimintatapa eroavaisuudet sekä kehitettiin seurantakortti, jossa jokaista yksikköä verrataan parhaaseen ja eniten kehittyneeseen yksikköön. Työn tuloksina muodostui ehdotuksia ostotoiminnon uusiksi mittareiksi. Uudet mittarit ovat tehokkuusmittareita, jotka kuvaavat resurssien käytön tehokkuutta sekä auttavat seuraamaan ostoprosessin tilaa entistä paremmin. Uusien mittareiden tavoitteena on myös vähentää mittareiden manipulaatiomahdollisuutta. Työn ulkopuolelle rajattiin informaatioteknologiajärjestelmien tietotekninen osuus. Eräs yrityksen tuotantolaitoksista rajattiin myös työn ulkopuolelle, koska sen ostoprosessit ovat huomattavasti kehittymättömämpiä kuin Schauman Woodin muiden tehtaiden ostoprosessit. Kyseisen yksikön kehittämisen tulee lähteä aivan ruohonjuuritasolta. Tutkimuksen teoriaosuus on kerätty alan ammattikirjallisuudesta ja tutkimuksen aihetta käsittelevistä uudehkoista tieteellisistä alan artikkeleista. Teorian tarkoituksena on tukea empiiristä osuutta sekä antaa lukijalle uusia näkemyksiä ostotoiminnan monista mahdollisuuksista. Tutkimuksen tuloksia ovat nykytila-analyysi, ehdotukset uusista ostotoiminnan mittareista sekä ehdotus MRO-tuotteiden ulkoistamiskokeilusta. Yrityksen ostotoiminnan tulisi kehittyä operatiivisesta tasosta kohti strategisempaa oston tasoa. Johdon sitoutuminen hankintatoimen kehityshankkeisiin on erityisen tärkeää, lisäksi hankintatoimi tulisi nähdä strategisempana osa-alueena yrityksessä. Hankintatoimen kehittämisen avulla yrityksen kustannustehokkuutta voidaan lisätä merkittävästi.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

Value-based Reference Marketing in a Small Process Industry Software and Service Company

This master’s thesis was done for a small company, Vipetec Oy, which offers specialized technological services for companies mainly in forest industry. The study was initiated partly because the company wants to expand its customer base to a new industry. There were two goals connected to each other. First was to find out how much and what kind of value current customers have realized from ATA Process Event Library, one of the products that the company offers. Second was to determine the best way to present this value and its implications for future value potential to both current and potential customers. ATA helps to make grade and product changes, starting after machine downtime, and recovery from production break faster for customers. All three events sometimes occur in production line. The faster operation results to savings in time and material. In addition to ATA Vipetec also offers other services related to development of automation and optimization of controls. Theoretical part concentrates on the concept of value, how it can be delivered to customers, and what kind of risk customer faces in industrial purchasing. Also the function of reference marketing towards customers is discussed. In the empirical part the realized value for existing customers is evaluated based on both numerical data and interviews. There’s also a brief case study about one customer. After that the value-based reference marketing for a target industry is examined through interviews of these potential customers. Finally answers to the research questions are stated and compared also to the theoretical knowledge about the subject. Results show that those customers’ machines which use the full service concept of ATA usually are able to save more time and material than the machines which use only some features of the product. Interviews indicated that sales arguments which focus on improved competitive status are not as effective as current arguments which focus on numerical improvements. In the case of potential customers in the new industry, current sales arguments likely work best for those whose irregular production situations are caused mainly by fault situations. When the actions of Vipetec were compared to ten key elements of creating customer references, it was seen that many of them the company has either already included in its strategy or has good chances to include them with the help of the results of this study.

Improving purchasing process for small purchases at a manufacturing company in chemical industry

This thesis was conducted on assignment by a multinational chemical corporation as a case study. The purpose of this study is to find ways to improve the purchasing process for small purchases at the case company. The improvements looked after are mainly cost and time savings. Purchasing process is the process that starts from the requisition of goods or services and ends when the invoice is paid. In this thesis the purchases with value less than 1000€ are considered to be small. The theoretical framework of the thesis consists of general theoretical view of costs and performance of the purchasing process, different types of purchasing processes and a model for improving purchasing processes. The categorization to small and large purchases is the most important followed by the division between direct and indirect purchases. Also models that provide more strategic perspective for categorization were found to be useful. Auditing and managerial control are important parts of the purchasing process. When considering the transaction costs of purchasing from the costs–benefits perspective large and small purchases should not have the same processes. Purchasing cards, e-procurement and vendor managed inventory are seen as an alternative to the traditional purchasing process. The empirical data collection was done by interviewing the company employees that take part of the purchasing process in their daily work. The interviews had open-ended questions and the answers were coded and analyzed. The results consist of process description and assessment as well as suggestions for potential improvements. At the case company the basic purchasing process was similar to the traditional purchasing process that is entirely done with computers and online. For some categories there was already more sophisticated e-procurement solutions in use. To improve the current e-procurement based solutions elimination of authorization workflow and better information exchange can be seen as potential improvements for most of the case purchases. Purchasing cards and a lightweight form of vendor managed inventory can be seen as potential improvements for some categories. Implementing the changes incurs at least some cost and the benefits might be hard to measure. This thesis has revealed that the small purchases have potential for significant cost and time savings at the case company.

Automation and cybernetics: Control of a flexible one-link manipulator

States that control is of the essence in cybernetics. Summarizes the dynamic equations for a flexible one-link manipulator moving in the horizontal plane. Employs the finite element method, based on elementary beam theory, during the process of formulation. Develops and instruments a one-link flexible manipulator in order to control its vibration modes. Uses a simple second-order vibration model which permits vibrations on the rod to be estimated using the hub angle. The validation of the dynamic model and the structural analysis of the flexible manipulator is reached using proper infrared cameras and active light sources for determining actual positions of objects in space. Shows that the performance of the control is satisfactory, even under perturbation action.

Digital system design process automation using place/transition petri nets

The constant increase in digital systems complexity definitely demands the automation of the corresponding synthesis process. This paper presents a computational environment designed to produce both software and hardware implementations of a system. The tool for code generation has been named ACG8051. As for the hardware synthesis there has been produced a larger environment consisting of four programs, namely: PIPE2TAB, AGPS, TABELA, and TAB2VHDL. ACG8051 and PIPE2TAB use place/transition net descriptions from PIPE as inputs. ACG8051 is aimed at generating assembly code for the 8051 micro-controller. PIPE2TAB produces a tabular version of a Mealy type finite state machine of the system, its output is fed into AGPS that is used for state allocation. The resulting digital system is then input to TABELA, which minimizes control functions and outputs of the digital system. Finally, the output generated by TABELA is fed to TAB2VHDL that produces a VHDL description of the system at the register transfer level. Thus, we present here a set of tools designed to take a high-level description of a digital system, represented by a place/transition net, and produces as output both an assembly code that can be immediately run on an 8051 micro-controller, and a VHDL description that can be used to directly implement the hardware parts either on an FPGA or as an ASIC.

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

Development of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment in process industry

The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

Quality Control in the Healthcare Industry: An Analysis of Surgery Turnover Times

For virtually all hospitals, utilization rates are a critical managerial indicator of efficiency and are determined in part by turnover time. Turnover time is defined as the time elapsed between surgeries, during which the operating room is cleaned and preparedfor the next surgery. Lengthier turnover times result in lower utilization rates, thereby hindering hospitals’ ability to maximize the numbers of patients that can be attended to. In this thesis, we analyze operating room data from a two year period provided byEvangelical Community Hospital in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, to understand the variability of the turnover process. From the recorded data provided, we derive our best estimation of turnover time. Recognizing the importance of being able to properly modelturnover times in order to improve the accuracy of scheduling, we seek to fit distributions to the set of turnover times. We find that log-normal and log-logistic distributions are well-suited to turnover times, although further research must validate this finding. Wepropose that the choice of distribution depends on the hospital and, as a result, a hospital must choose whether to use the log-normal or the log-logistic distribution. Next, we use statistical tests to identify variables that may potentially influence turnover time. We find that there does not appear to be a correlation between surgerytime and turnover time across doctors. However, there are statistically significant differences between the mean turnover times across doctors. The final component of our research entails analyzing and explaining the benefits of introducing control charts as a quality control mechanism for monitoring turnover times in hospitals. Although widely instituted in other industries, control charts are notwidely adopted in healthcare environments, despite their potential benefits. A major component of our work is the development of control charts to monitor the stability of turnover times. These charts can be easily instituted in hospitals to reduce the variabilityof turnover times. Overall, our analysis uses operations research techniques to analyze turnover times and identify manners for improvement in lowering the mean turnover time and thevariability in turnover times. We provide valuable insight into a component of the surgery process that has received little attention, but can significantly affect utilization rates in hospitals. Most critically, an ability to more accurately predict turnover timesand a better understanding of the sources of variability can result in improved scheduling and heightened hospital staff and patient satisfaction. We hope that our findings can apply to many other hospital settings.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Towards Automation in Digital Investigations : Seeking Efficiency in Digital Forensics in Mobile and Cloud Environments

Cybercrime and related malicious activity in our increasingly digital world has become more prevalent and sophisticated, evading traditional security mechanisms. Digital forensics has been proposed to help investigate, understand and eventually mitigate such attacks. The practice of digital forensics, however, is still fraught with various challenges. Some of the most prominent of these challenges include the increasing amounts of data and the diversity of digital evidence sources appearing in digital investigations. Mobile devices and cloud infrastructures are an interesting specimen, as they inherently exhibit these challenging circumstances and are becoming more prevalent in digital investigations today. Additionally they embody further characteristics such as large volumes of data from multiple sources, dynamic sharing of resources, limited individual device capabilities and the presence of sensitive data. These combined set of circumstances make digital investigations in mobile and cloud environments particularly challenging. This is not aided by the fact that digital forensics today still involves manual, time consuming tasks within the processes of identifying evidence, performing evidence acquisition and correlating multiple diverse sources of evidence in the analysis phase. Furthermore, industry standard tools developed are largely evidence-oriented, have limited support for evidence integration and only automate certain precursory tasks, such as indexing and text searching. In this study, efficiency, in the form of reducing the time and human labour effort expended, is sought after in digital investigations in highly networked environments through the automation of certain activities in the digital forensic process. To this end requirements are outlined and an architecture designed for an automated system that performs digital forensics in highly networked mobile and cloud environments. Part of the remote evidence acquisition activity of this architecture is built and tested on several mobile devices in terms of speed and reliability. A method for integrating multiple diverse evidence sources in an automated manner, supporting correlation and automated reasoning is developed and tested. Finally the proposed architecture is reviewed and enhancements proposed in order to further automate the architecture by introducing decentralization particularly within the storage and processing functionality. This decentralization also improves machine to machine communication supporting several digital investigation processes enabled by the architecture through harnessing the properties of various peer-to-peer overlays. Remote evidence acquisition helps to improve the efficiency (time and effort involved) in digital investigations by removing the need for proximity to the evidence. Experiments show that a single TCP connection client-server paradigm does not offer the required scalability and reliability for remote evidence acquisition and that a multi-TCP connection paradigm is required. The automated integration, correlation and reasoning on multiple diverse evidence sources demonstrated in the experiments improves speed and reduces the human effort needed in the analysis phase by removing the need for time-consuming manual correlation. Finally, informed by published scientific literature, the proposed enhancements for further decentralizing the Live Evidence Information Aggregator (LEIA) architecture offer a platform for increased machine-to-machine communication thereby enabling automation and reducing the need for manual human intervention.