875 resultados para Probability of choice
Resumo:
Optimal design of a power electronics module isolation substrate is assessed using a combination of finite element structural mechanics analysis and response surface optimisation technique. Primary failure modes in power electronics modules include the loss of structural integrity in the ceramic substrate materials due to stresses induced through thermal cycling. Analysis of the influence of ceramic substrate design parameters is undertaken using a design of experiments approach. Finite element analysis is used to determine the stress distribution for each design, and the results are used to construct a quadratic response surface function. A particle swarm optimisation algorithm is then used to determine the optimal substrate design. Analysis of response surface function gradients is used to perform sensitivity analysis and develop isolation substrate design rules. The influence of design uncertainties introduced through manufacturing tolerances is assessed using a Monte-Carlo algorithm, resulting in a stress distribution histogram. The probability of failure caused by the violation of design constraints has been analyzed. Six geometric design parameters are considered in this work and the most important design parameters have been identified. Overall analysis results can be used to enhance the design and reliability of the component.
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The reactions to the 9/11 terror attacks were immense in the western population. In the current review, the impact of terror attacks is presented with surveys, clinical interviews, and scientific polls, which were identified in a comprehensive literature search. Results show that the fear of further terror attacks is comparatively overestimated in the population and is associated with numerous psychological consequences and reactions. The overestimation of the probability of further terror attacks is related among other reasons to its unique features and its strong representation in the media. Several independent studies proved that the number of stress symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses is associated with a high risk perception in relation to terror attacks. This was not only the case for victims of terror attacks, but also for people indirectly exposed to the terror attacks. In addition, there is evidence that the number of the stress symptoms correlate with the duration of TV consumption of new findings about terror attempts. Methodologically, there is a critical lack of more in-depth analyses to explain the development of risk perceptions and its influence on mental and physical health. Because of the international importance and cross-cultural differences, an international standardization of research is desirable. [In German] Die Reaktionen auf die Terrorattentate vom 9. September 2001 in New York waren in der westlichen Bevölkerung immens. In der vorliegenden Übersichtsarbeit werden die Auswirkungen von Terrorattentaten durch Einbeziehung bevölkerungsrepräsentativer Untersuchungen, Surveys, klinischer Interviews und Einstellungsbefragungen dargestellt, die über eine deskriptive Literaturrecherche ermittelt wurden. Als Ergebnis des Reviews zeigt sich, dass die Angst vor weiteren Terrorattentaten in der Bevölkerung vergleichsweise hoch und mit zahlreichen psychologischen Folgen und Reaktionen assoziiert ist. Die Einschätzung der Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit eines Terrorattentats hängt unter anderem mit den besonderen Charakteristika und der hohen medialen Präsenz des Themas zusammen. Die Anzahl der Stresssymptome bis hin zu psychiatrischen Diagnosen erwies sich in mehreren unabhängigen Untersuchungen mit einer hohen Risikowahrnehmung assoziiert. Dies ließ sich nicht nur bei den Opfern von Terrorattentaten, sondern auch bei indirekt Betroffenen zeigen. Darüber hinaus gibt es mehrfache Belege dafür, dass die Anzahl der Stresssymptome mit der Dauer des TV-Konsums über Neuigkeiten zu Terrorattentaten zusammenhing. Als methodische Kritik ist an den gegenwärtigen Untersuchungsszenarien einzuwenden, dass es derzeit keine tiefer gehenden Analysen zur Entwicklung der Risikowahrnehmung und zu ihrem Einfluss auf die Gesundheit gibt. Aufgrund der internationalen Bedeutung des Themas und der interkulturellen Unterschiede im Umgang mit Krisensituationen ist eine internationale Standardisierung von Untersuchungszugängen wünschenswert.
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Heterocycle containing nitroaromatics were reduced by Mo(CO)(6) and DBU in EtOH under microwave irradiation within 15 min. Under the same conditions, 4-fluoronitrobenzene was reduced to 4-fluoroaniline, whereas 2-chloro-1-fluoro-4-nitrobenzene afforded a mixture of 3-chloro-4-fluoroaniline and 3-chloro-4-ethoxyaniline. The extent of the competing SNAr/reduction process could be influenced by the nature of the solvent, with t-BuOH the inert solvent of choice. The latter was used as solvent for SNAr/reductions of 2-chloro-1-fluoro-4-nitrobenzene with S-nucleophiles to yield 3-chloro-4-mercaptoanilines. Crown Copyright (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Solvent-cast films from three polymers, carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), sodium alginate (SA), and xanthan gum, were prepared by drying the polymeric gels in air. Three methods, (a) passive hydration, (b) vortex hydration with heating, and (c) cold hydration, were investigated to determine the most effective means of preparing gels for each of the three polymers. Different drying conditions [relative humidity - RH (6-52%) and temperature (3-45 degrees C)] were investigated to determine the effect of drying rate on the films prepared by drying the polymeric gels. The tensile properties of the CMC films were determined by stretching dumbbell-shaped films to breaking point, using a Texture Analyser. Glycerol was used as a plasticizer, and its effects on the drying rate, physical appearance, and tensile properties of the resulting films were investigated. Vortex hydration with heating was the method of choice for preparing gels of SA and CMC, and cold hydration for xanthan gels. Drying rates increased with low glycerol content, high temperature, and low relative humidity. The residual water content of the films increased with increasing glycerol content and high relative humidity and decreased at higher temperatures. Generally, temperature affected the drying rate to a greater extent than relative humidity. Glycerol significantly affected the toughness (increased) and rigidity (decreased) of CMC films. CMC films prepared at 45 degrees C and 6% RH produced suitable films at the fastest rate while films containing equal quantities of glycerol and CMC possessed an ideal balance between flexibility and rigidity.
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Noise is one of the main factors degrading the quality of original multichannel remote sensing data and its presence influences classification efficiency, object detection, etc. Thus, pre-filtering is often used to remove noise and improve the solving of final tasks of multichannel remote sensing. Recent studies indicate that a classical model of additive noise is not adequate enough for images formed by modern multichannel sensors operating in visible and infrared bands. However, this fact is often ignored by researchers designing noise removal methods and algorithms. Because of this, we focus on the classification of multichannel remote sensing images in the case of signal-dependent noise present in component images. Three approaches to filtering of multichannel images for the considered noise model are analysed, all based on discrete cosine transform in blocks. The study is carried out not only in terms of conventional efficiency metrics used in filtering (MSE) but also in terms of multichannel data classification accuracy (probability of correct classification, confusion matrix). The proposed classification system combines the pre-processing stage where a DCT-based filter processes the blocks of the multichannel remote sensing image and the classification stage. Two modern classifiers are employed, radial basis function neural network and support vector machines. Simulations are carried out for three-channel image of Landsat TM sensor. Different cases of learning are considered: using noise-free samples of the test multichannel image, the noisy multichannel image and the pre-filtered one. It is shown that the use of the pre-filtered image for training produces better classification in comparison to the case of learning for the noisy image. It is demonstrated that the best results for both groups of quantitative criteria are provided if a proposed 3D discrete cosine transform filter equipped by variance stabilizing transform is applied. The classification results obtained for data pre-filtered in different ways are in agreement for both considered classifiers. Comparison of classifier performance is carried out as well. The radial basis neural network classifier is less sensitive to noise in original images, but after pre-filtering the performance of both classifiers is approximately the same.
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The transfer of gases between the atmosphere and ocean is affected by a number of processes, of which wave action and rainfall are two of potential significance. Efforts have been made to quantify separately their contributions; however such assessments neglect the interaction of these phenomena. Here we look at the correlation statistics of waves and rain to note which regions display a strong association between rainfall and the local sea state. The conditional probability of rain varies from ~0.5% to ~15%, with most of the equatorial belt (which contains the ITCZ) showing a greater likelihood of rain at the lowest sea states. In contrast the occurrence of rain is independent of wave height in the Southern Ocean. The 1997/98 El Niño enhances the frequency of rain in some Pacific regions, with this change showing some association with wave conditions.
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Oxybutynin, a drug of choice in the treatment of urinary incontinence, has low oral bioavailability due to extensive first-pass metabolism. A toxic metabolite, N-desethyloxybutynin, has been linked to adverse reactions to oral oxybutynin. This study, therefore, reports on the design of an oxybutynin intravaginal ring (IVR) of reservoir design, comprising an oxybutynin silicone elastomer core encased in a non-medicated silicone sheath, manufactured by reaction injection moulding at 50oC. An unusually high initial burst release of oxybutynin (42.7 mg in 24 h) was observed in vitro with a full length core (100 mg drug loading), with subsequent non-zero order drug release. Use of fractional segment cores substantially reduced the burst effect, yielding linear cumulative drug release versus time plots from days 2 to 14. Thus, a 1/8 fractional segment core gave a 24 h burst of 11.28 mg oxybutynin and, thereafter, zero order release at the target dose of 5 mg/day over 14 days. Two oxybutynin cores, each 1/16 of full length, gave a greater release than a single 1/8 core, due to core segment end effects resulting in an increased surface area for release. The burst release was investigated by determining drug solubilities in the propan-1-ol product of elastomer condensation cure (390 mg/ml) and in the elastomer itself (13.9-20.21 mg/ml, by direct extraction and indirect thermal methods). These high oxybutynin solubilities were considered the major contributors to the burst effect. It was concluded that use of a fractional segment core would allow development of a suitable oxybutynin reservoir IVR.
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Whole-cell and inside-out patch-clamp techniques were used to assess the action of a well-known dye, Evans blue, on membrane currents in bladder isolated smooth muscle cells from sheep. In whole cells Evans blue dose-dependently increased the outward current by up to fivefold. In contrast, Evans blue had no effect on inward Ca2+ current. The effect on outward current was abolished or reduced if the cells were bathed in Ca2+-free solution, iberiotoxin (5 x 10(-8) M), or charybdotoxin (5 x 10(-8) M), but was unaffected by externally applied caffeine (5 mM) or in cells exposed to heparin (1 mg/ml) via the patch pipette. In inside-out patches bathed in a Ca2+ concentration of 5 x 10(-7) M, Evans blue (10(-4) M) increased the open probability of large-conductance (298-pS) Ca2+-dependent K+ channels (BK channels), shifting the half maximal-activation voltage by -70 mV. We conclude that Evans blue dye acts as an opener of BK channels.
Resumo:
Freshly dispersed cells from sheep urinary bladder were voltage clamped using the whole cell and inside-out patch-clamp technique. Cibacron and Basilen blue increased outward current in a dose-dependent manner with a half-maximal response at 10(-5) M. Suramin, in concentrations to 10(-3) M, had no such effect. The Cibacron blue response was abolished in Ca2+-free physiological salt solution, suggesting that it was acting on a Ca2+-dependent current. Similarly, the Cibacron blue-sensitive current was significantly attenuated by charybdotoxin. Cibacron blue did not modulate inward current nor were its effects modified by caffeine or heparin, suggesting that its effect on outward current was not secondary to an increase in intracellular Ca2+. Application of 10(-4) M Cibacron blue to the inside membrane of excised patches caused a rapid increase in open probability of a large-conductance (300 pS) K+ channel. These results suggest that Cibacron blue is a potent activator of a Ca2+-dependent outward current in bladder smooth muscle cells in addition to its action as a purinergic blocker.
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Harris R. and Trainor M. (2007) Impact of government intervention on employment change and plant closure in Northern Ireland, 1983-97, Regional Studies 41, 51-63. Financial assistance to manufacturing industry is an important element of the industrial development policy in Northern Ireland. This paper uses the individual plant-level records of the Annual Respondents Database (ARD) for the Northern Ireland manufacturing sector (1983-97) matched to the plant-level details of financial support provided by the Industrial Development Board to examine the effect of selective financial assistance (SFA) on employment change and plant closure. It is found that SFA concentrated on protecting existing, rather than new, enterprises in terms of employment change. Using a hazard model, it is found that the receipt of SFA significantly reduced the probability of plant closure by, on average, between 15 and 24%.
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Recent experiments suggest that gold single-atom contacts and atomic chains break at applied voltages of 1 to 2 V. In order to understand why current flow affects these defect-free conductors, we have calculated the current-induced forces on atoms in a Au chain between two Au electrodes. These forces are not by themselves sufficient to rupture the chain. However, the current reduces the work to break the chain, which results in a dramatic increase in the probability of thermally activated spontaneous fracture of the chain. This current-induced embrittlement poses a fundamental limit to the current-carrying capacity of atomic wires.
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Timely and convenient access to primary healthcare is essential for the health of the population as delays can incur additional health and financial costs. Access to health care is under increasing scrutiny as part of the drive to contain escalating costs, while attempting to maintain equity in service provision. The objective was to compare primary care services in Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and to report on perceived and reported access to GP services in universal access and mixed private/public systems. A questionnaire study was performed in Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Patients of 20 practices in the ROI and NI were contacted (n = 22,796). Main outcome measures were overall satisfaction and the access to GP services. Individual responses and scale scores were derived using the General Practice Assessment Questionnaire (G-PAQ). The response rate was 52% (n = 11,870). Overall satisfaction with GP practices was higher in ROI than in NI (84.2% and 80.9% respectively). Access scores were higher in ROI than in NI (69.2% and 57.0% respectively) Less than 1 in 10 patients in ROI waited two or more working days to see a doctor of choice (8.1%) compared to almost half (45.0%) in NI. In NI overall satisfaction decreased as practice size increased; 82.8%, 80.4%, and 75.8%. In both systems, in large practices, accessibility is reduced when compared to smaller practices. The faster access to GP services in ROI may be due to the deterrent effect of the consultation charge freeing up services although, as it is the poorest and sickest who are deterred by the charge this improved accessibility may come at a significant cost in terms of equity. The underlying concern for policy makers centres around provision of equitable services.
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The probability of multiple ionization of krypton by 50 femtosecond circularly polarized laser pulses, independent of the optical focal geometry, has been obtained for the first time. The excellent agreement over the intensity range 100 TW cm-2 to 100 PW cm-2 with the recent predictions of Kornev et al (2003 Phys. Rev. A 68 043414) provides the first experimental confirmation that non-recollisional electronic excitation can occur in strong-field ionization. This is particularly true for higher stages of ionization, when the laser intensity exceeds 10 PW cm-2 as the energetic departure of the ionized electron(s) diabatically distorts the wavefunctions of the bound electrons. By scaling the probability of ionization by the focal volume, we discuss why this mechanism was not apparent in previous studies.
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In many bird species the sex ratio of adults is male-biased, which is likely to have consequences for the ecology as well as for the conservation of a species. For example, when some males remain unpaired in a population, there should be strong selection on behavioural traits that enhance pairing success. A surplus of males is also likely to have important implications for the interpretation of breeding bird survey data. In our study population of Nightingales Luscinia megarhynchos, about half of the males stayed unpaired, suggesting that the number of males encountered singing was greater than the number of breeding pairs. Furthermore, the detectability (the probability of encountering a male singing) of mated males was only two-thirds that of unmated males when censused in the morning or late in the breeding season. The relative detectability was more similar early in the season and during the twilight periods before sunrise and after sunset. Males that arrived earlier on the breeding grounds were more successful in attracting a mate than males arriving later. Some of the unmated males deserted their territories and prospected areas up to 4000 m distant, whereas others settled on the study site only late in the season and may actually have changed territories. We suggest that adult sex ratios and the time of the census should be taken into account when interpreting the results of breeding bird surveys.
Resumo:
Incoherent Thomson scattering (ITS) provides a nonintrusive diagnostic for the determination of one-dimensional (1D) electron velocity distribution in plasmas. When the ITS spectrum is Gaussian its interpretation as a three-dimensional (3D) Maxwellian velocity distribution is straightforward. For more complex ITS line shapes derivation of the corresponding 3D velocity distribution and electron energy probability distribution function is more difficult. This article reviews current techniques and proposes an approach to making the transformation between a 1D velocity distribution and the corresponding 3D energy distribution. Previous approaches have either transformed the ITS spectra directly from a 1D distribution to a 3D or fitted two Gaussians assuming a Maxwellian or bi-Maxwellian distribution. Here, the measured ITS spectrum transformed into a 1D velocity distribution and the probability of finding a particle with speed within 0 and given value v is calculated. The differentiation of this probability function is shown to be the normalized electron velocity distribution function. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.