A home environment test battery for status assessment in patients with motor fluctuations

Background and aims Evaluating status in patients with motor fluctuations is complex and occasional observations/measurements do not give an adequate picture as to the time spent in different states. We developed a test battery to assess advanced Parkinson patients' status consisting of diary assessments and motor tests. This battery was constructed and implemented on a handheld computer with built-in mobile communication. In fluctuating patients, it should typically be used several times daily in the home environment, over periods of about one week. The aim of this battery is to provide status information in order to evaluate treatment effects in clinical practice and research, follow up treatments and disease progression and predict outcome to optimize treatment strategy. Methods Selection of diary questions was based on a previous study with Duodopa® (DIREQT). Tapping tests (with and without visual cueing) and a spiral drawing test were added. Rapid prototyping was used in development of the user interface. An evaluation with two pilot patients was performed before and after receiving new treatments for advanced disease (one received Duodopa® and one received DBS). Speed and proportion missed taps were calculated for the tapping tests and entropy of the radial drawing velocity was calculated for the spiral tests. Test variables were evaluated using non-parametric statistics. Results Post-treatment improvement was detected in both patients in many of the test variables. Conclusions Although validation work remains, preliminary results are promising and the test battery is currently being evaluated in a long-term health economics study with Duodopa® (DAPHNE).

Volatility Triggered Range Forward (VTRF): an instrument for protection against volatility fluctuations in the BRL/USD pair

Este trabalho propõe um instrumento capaz de absorver choques no par BRL/USD, garantindo ao seu detentor a possibilidade de realizar a conversão entre essas moedas a uma taxa observada recentemente. O Volatility Triggered Range Forward assemelha-se a um instrumento forward comum, cujo preço de entrega não é conhecido inicialmente, mas definido no momento em que um nível de volatilidade pré-determinado for atingido na cotação das moedas ao longo da vida do instrumento. Seu cronograma de ajustes pode ser definido para um número qualquer de períodos. Seu apreçamento e controle de riscos é baseado em uma árvore trinomial ponderada entre dois possíveis regimes de volatilidade. Esses regimes são determinados após um estudo na série BRL/USD no período entre 2003 e 2009, basedo em um modelo Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH).

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

Orientation and external morphology of burrows of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Crustacea: Brachyura: Ucididae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population Fluctuations of Formicidae (Hymenoptera) and Araneae (Arachnida) in Two Tillage Systems in the Region of Guaíra-SP

The objective of this study was to elucidate population fluctuations of spider and ant species in forest fragments and adjacent soybean and corn crops under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems, and their correlations with meteorological factors. From Nov 2004 to Apr 2007 sampling of these arthropods at Guaira, São Paulo state was done biweekly during the cropping season and monthly during the periods between crops. To obtain samples at each experimental site, pitfall traps were distributed in 2 transects of 200 m of which 100 m was in the crop, and 100 m was in the forest fragment. Temperature and rainfall were found to have major impacts on fluctuations in population densities of ants of the genus, Pheidole, in soybean and corn crops both grown with conventional tillage and no tillage systems.

DETERMINATION of THE INDIRECT ORIENTATION of ORBITAL PUSHBROOM IMAGES USING CONTROL STRAIGHT LINES

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Photoinduced orientation in natural rubber

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influences of thermal and electric load fluctuations in the cogeneration attractiveness

The use of mean values of thermal and electric demand can be justifiable for synthesising the configuration and for estimating the economic results because it simplifies the analysis in a preliminary feasibility study of a cogeneration plant. For determining the cogeneration scheme that best fits the energetic needs of a process several cycles and combinations must be considered, and those technically feasible will be analysed according to economic models. Although interesting for a first approach, this procedure do not consider that the peaks and valleys present in the load patterns will impose additional constraints relatively to the equipment capacities. In this paper, the effects of thermal and electric load fluctuation to the cogeneration plant design were considered. An approach for modelling these load variability is proposed for comparing two competing thermal and electric parity competing schemes. A gas turbine associated to a heat recovery steam generator was then proposed and analysed for thermal- and electric-following operational strategies. Thermal-following option revealed to be more attractive for the technical and economic limits defined for this analysis. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Orientation dependence of stored energy of cold work in semi-processed electrical steels after temper rolling

Microhardness measurements were carried out in a low carbon lamination steel after 6% of temper rolling, in order to evaluate local variations of work hardening as a function of crystallographic orientation. EBSD (electron back scattered diffraction) was used to determine grain orientations with respect to individual rolling planes and rolling directions. Hardness was shown to increase with the local Taylor factor. TEM observations and a well-known dislocation hardening model were used to confirm the equivalence between hardness values and the stored energy of cold work. A definite correlation between stored energy and Taylor factors could therefore be established, being more consistent than previous data reported in the literature. The improvement was thought to be related to the rather small plastic deformation, during which Taylor factors could be considered to remain constant. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The self-polarization effect in Pb(Zr0.50Ti0.50)O-3 thin films with no preferential orientation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Shear viscosity from thermal fluctuations in relativistic conformal fluid dynamics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)