987 resultados para Non-i.i.d. Model


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Peer reviewed

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Thèse réalisée en cotutelle entre l'Université de Montréal et l'Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 06, Sorbonne Universités.

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In the spirit of the proposals of the Agenda 2020 about the structural role of cinema in the configuration of the European identities, this article highlights the significance of the national cinemas in non-hegemonic languages in the conformation of a diverse European culture. Following this perspective, we use Galician cinema as a case study in which we analyze the presence (or more precisely the absence) of the Galician language in the original version in the feature films released between 2008 and 2012.This proposal is hosted by the I+D+I project eDCINEMA: “Towards the European Digital Space. The role of small cinemas in original version” (Ref. CSO2012-35784) financed by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain.

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La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

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Demokratiuppdraget är ett av skolans i huvudsak viktigaste uppdrag, vilket innebär att skolan ska fostra eleverna till demokratiska medborgare med grundläggande demokratiska värderingar. Skolinspektionens granskningsrapporter visar att flertalet skolor brister i sitt demokratiuppdrag, och då främst skolor belägna i områden med låg socioekonomisk status. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur lärare, verksamma på skolor med skilda socioekonomisk status, tänker om och beskriver att de arbetar med skolans demokratiska uppdrag. Studien har genomförts med hjälp av kvalitativa, halvstrukturerade gruppintervjuer med lärare verksamma på två skolor belägna i skilda socioekonomiska områden. Intervjuerna var utformade för att få ut faktisk information, lärarnas tolkningar, uppfattningar och berättelser. Det transkriberade materialet analyserades med hjälp av meningskoncentrering i syfte att jämföra lärares tankar och arbetssätt i deras demokratiska uppdrag. Resultatet visar att skolor belägna i skilda socioekonomiska områden har olika förutsättningar till att arbeta med skolans demokratiska uppdrag, vilket stämmer överens med tidigare forskning som menar att föräldrars utbildning och etisk tillhörighet är två betydelsefulla variabler som påverkar utgången i elevernas möjlighet att tillgodose sig kunskaper om demokratiska processer samt demokratiska värderingar. Detta kan i framtiden hota det demokratiska samhälle som vi lever i, då alla elever inte ges samma möjlighet att utvecklas till demokratiska samhällsmedborgare.

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The thesis deals with the problem of Model Selection (MS) motivated by information and prediction theory, focusing on parametric time series (TS) models. The main contribution of the thesis is the extension to the multivariate case of the Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC), a criterion introduced recently that solves Akaike’s original research problem posed 50 years ago, which led to the definition of the AIC. The importance of MS is witnessed by the huge amount of literature devoted to it and published in scientific journals of many different disciplines. Despite such a widespread treatment, the contributions that adopt a mathematically rigorous approach are not so numerous and one of the aims of this project is to review and assess them. Chapter 2 discusses methodological aspects of MS from information theory. Information criteria (IC) for the i.i.d. setting are surveyed along with their asymptotic properties; and the cases of small samples, misspecification, further estimators. Chapter 3 surveys criteria for TS. IC and prediction criteria are considered for: univariate models (AR, ARMA) in the time and frequency domain, parametric multivariate (VARMA, VAR); nonparametric nonlinear (NAR); and high-dimensional models. The MRIC answers Akaike’s original question on efficient criteria, for possibly-misspecified (PM) univariate TS models in multi-step prediction with high-dimensional data and nonlinear models. Chapter 4 extends the MRIC to PM multivariate TS models for multi-step prediction introducing the Vectorial MRIC (VMRIC). We show that the VMRIC is asymptotically efficient by proving the decomposition of the MSPE matrix and the consistency of its Method-of-Moments Estimator (MoME), for Least Squares multi-step prediction with univariate regressor. Chapter 5 extends the VMRIC to the general multiple regressor case, by showing that the MSPE matrix decomposition holds, obtaining consistency for its MoME, and proving its efficiency. The chapter concludes with a digression on the conditions for PM VARX models.

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Different brands and batches of brazilian regular and instant coffee were purchased in supermarkets of Campinas? city and analysed for caffeine content. The method used involved extraction with boiling water, clarification with saturated basic acetate and determination by high performance liquid cromatography. Analysis was carried out using a Model 6000 A solvent delivery system (Waters associates), and a Model 7125 sample injector system (Reodyne, Inc.) with a 5µl sample loop. The system was also equipped with a Waters Model M440 absorbance detector set at 254 nm. A Merck ODS 5µm column (15 cm x 4.6 mm i.d.) was used to separate the caffeine. The mobile phase was methanol:water (25:75, v/v). The caffeine content varied for different brands and types of coffee and according to the beverage preparation technique. Values in the range of 0.43 to 0.85 mg/ml and 0.61 to 0.82 mg/ml were determined in regular and instant coffee, respectively.

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We investigate a recently proposed non-Markovian random walk model characterized by loss of memories of the recent past and amnestically induced persistence. We report numerical and analytical results showing the complete phase diagram, consisting of four phases, for this system: (i) classical nonpersistence, (ii) classical persistence, (iii) log-periodic nonpersistence, and (iv) log-periodic persistence driven by negative feedback. The first two phases possess continuous scale invariance symmetry, however, log-periodicity breaks this symmetry. Instead, log-periodic motion satisfies discrete scale invariance symmetry, with complex rather than real fractal dimensions. We find for log-periodic persistence evidence not only of statistical but also of geometric self-similarity.

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The PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider has performed systematic measurements of phi meson production in the K(+)K(-) decay channel at midrapidity in p + p, d + Au, Cu + Cu, and Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. Results are presented on the phi invariant yield and the nuclear modification factor R(AA) for Au + Au and Cu + Cu, and R(dA) for d + Au collisions, studied as a function of transverse momentum (1 < p(T) < 7 GeV/c) and centrality. In central and midcentral Au + Au collisions, the R(AA) of phi exhibits a suppression relative to expectations from binary scaled p + p results. The amount of suppression is smaller than that of the pi(0) and the. in the intermediate p(T) range (2-5 GeV/c), whereas, at higher p(T), the phi, pi(0), and. show similar suppression. The baryon (proton and antiproton) excess observed in central Au + Au collisions at intermediate p(T) is not observed for the phi meson despite the similar masses of the proton and the phi. This suggests that the excess is linked to the number of valence quarks in the hadron rather than its mass. The difference gradually disappears with decreasing centrality, and, for peripheral collisions, the R(AA) values for both particle species are consistent with binary scaling. Cu + Cu collisions show the same yield and suppression as Au + Au collisions for the same number of N(part). The R(dA) of phi shows no evidence for cold nuclear effects within uncertainties.

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PHENIX has measured the e(+)e(-) pair continuum in root s(NN) = 200 GeV Au+Au and p+p collisions over a wide range of mass and transverse momenta. The e(+)e(-) yield is compared to the expectations from hadronic sources, based on PHENIX measurements. In the intermediate-mass region, between the masses of the phi and the J/psi meson, the yield is consistent with expectations from correlated c (c) over bar production, although other mechanisms are not ruled out. In the low-mass region, below the phi, the p+p inclusive mass spectrum is well described by known contributions from light meson decays. In contrast, the Au+Au minimum bias inclusive mass spectrum in this region shows an enhancement by a factor of 4.7 +/- 0.4(stat) +/- 1.5(syst) +/- 0.9(model). At low mass (m(ee) < 0.3 GeV/c(2)) and high p(T) (1 < p(T) < 5 GeV/c) an enhanced e(+)e(-) pair yield is observed that is consistent with production of virtual direct photons. This excess is used to infer the yield of real direct photons. In central Au+Au collisions, the excess of the direct photon yield over the p+p is exponential in p(T), with inverse slope T = 221 +/- 19(stat) +/- 19(syst) MeV. Hydrodynamical models with initial temperatures ranging from T(init) similar or equal to 300-600 MeV at times of 0.6-0.15 fm/c after the collision are in qualitative agreement with the direct photon data in Au+Au. For low p(T) < 1 GeV/c the low-mass region shows a further significant enhancement that increases with centrality and has an inverse slope of T similar or equal to 100 MeV. Theoretical models underpredict the low-mass, low-p(T) enhancement.

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Bose-Einstein correlations of charged kaons are used to probe Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV and are compared to charged pion probes, which have a larger hadronic scattering cross section. Three-dimensional Gaussian source radii are extracted, along with a one-dimensional kaon emission source function. The centrality dependences of the three Gaussian radii are well described by a single linear function of N(part)(1/3) with a zero intercept. Imaging analysis shows a deviation from a Gaussian tail at r greater than or similar to 10 fm, although the bulk emission at lower radius is well described by a Gaussian. The presence of a non-Gaussian tail in the kaon source reaffirms that the particle emission region in a heavy-ion collision is extended, and that similar measurements with pions are not solely due to the decay of long-lived resonances.

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For Au + Au collisions at 200 GeV, we measure neutral pion production with good statistics for transverse momentum, p(T), up to 20 GeV/c. A fivefold suppression is found, which is essentially constant for 5 < p(T) < 20 GeV/c. Experimental uncertainties are small enough to constrain any model-dependent parametrization for the transport coefficient of the medium, e. g., <(q) over cap > in the parton quenching model. The spectral shape is similar for all collision classes, and the suppression does not saturate in Au + Au collisions.

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A comprehensive survey of event-by-event fluctuations of charged hadron multiplicity in relativistic heavy ions is presented. The survey covers Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV, and Cu+Cu collisions at s(NN)=22.5,62.4, and 200 GeV. Fluctuations are measured as a function of collision centrality, transverse momentum range, and charge sign. After correcting for nondynamical fluctuations due to fluctuations in the collision geometry within a centrality bin, the remaining dynamical fluctuations expressed as the variance normalized by the mean tend to decrease with increasing centrality. The dynamical fluctuations are consistent with or below the expectation from a superposition of participant nucleon-nucleon collisions based upon p+p data, indicating that this dataset does not exhibit evidence of critical behavior in terms of the compressibility of the system. A comparison of the data with a model where hadrons are independently emitted from a number of hadron clusters suggests that the mean number of hadrons per cluster is small in heavy ion collisions.

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The PHENIX experiment has measured the suppression of semi-inclusive single high-transverse-momentum pi(0)'s in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. The present understanding of this suppression is in terms of energy loss of the parent (fragmenting) parton in a dense color-charge medium. We have performed a quantitative comparison between various parton energy-loss models and our experimental data. The statistical point-to-point uncorrelated as well as correlated systematic uncertainties are taken into account in the comparison. We detail this methodology and the resulting constraint on the model parameters, such as the initial color-charge density dN(g)/dy, the medium transport coefficient <(q) over cap >, or the initial energy-loss parameter epsilon(0). We find that high-transverse-momentum pi(0) suppression in Au+Au collisions has sufficient precision to constrain these model-dependent parameters at the +/- 20-25% (one standard deviation) level. These constraints include only the experimental uncertainties, and further studies are needed to compute the corresponding theoretical uncertainties.

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We consider a Random Walk in Random Environment (RWRE) moving in an i.i.d. random field of obstacles. When the particle hits an obstacle, it disappears with a positive probability. We obtain quenched and annealed bounds on the tails of the survival time in the general d-dimensional case. We then consider a simplified one-dimensional model (where transition probabilities and obstacles are independent and the RWRE only moves to neighbour sites), and obtain finer results for the tail of the survival time. In addition, we study also the ""mixed"" probability measures (quenched with respect to the obstacles and annealed with respect to the transition probabilities and vice-versa) and give results for tails of the survival time with respect to these probability measures. Further, we apply the same methods to obtain bounds for the tails of hitting times of Branching Random Walks in Random Environment (BRWRE).