Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping

It is common in econometric applications that several hypothesis tests arecarried out at the same time. The problem then becomes how to decide whichhypotheses to reject, accounting for the multitude of tests. In this paper,we suggest a stepwise multiple testing procedure which asymptoticallycontrols the familywise error rate at a desired level. Compared to relatedsingle-step methods, our procedure is more powerful in the sense that itoften will reject more false hypotheses. In addition, we advocate the useof studentization when it is feasible. Unlike some stepwise methods, ourmethod implicitly captures the joint dependence structure of the teststatistics, which results in increased ability to detect alternativehypotheses. We prove our method asymptotically controls the familywise errorrate under minimal assumptions. We present our methodology in the context ofcomparing several strategies to a common benchmark and deciding whichstrategies actually beat the benchmark. However, our ideas can easily beextended and/or modied to other contexts, such as making inference for theindividual regression coecients in a multiple regression framework. Somesimulation studies show the improvements of our methods over previous proposals. We also provide an application to a set of real data.

Canonical correspondence analysis in social science research

The use of simple and multiple correspondence analysis is well-established in socialscience research for understanding relationships between two or more categorical variables.By contrast, canonical correspondence analysis, which is a correspondence analysis with linearrestrictions on the solution, has become one of the most popular multivariate techniques inecological research. Multivariate ecological data typically consist of frequencies of observedspecies across a set of sampling locations, as well as a set of observed environmental variablesat the same locations. In this context the principal dimensions of the biological variables aresought in a space that is constrained to be related to the environmental variables. Thisrestricted form of correspondence analysis has many uses in social science research as well,as is demonstrated in this paper. We first illustrate the result that canonical correspondenceanalysis of an indicator matrix, restricted to be related an external categorical variable, reducesto a simple correspondence analysis of a set of concatenated (or stacked ) tables. Then weshow how canonical correspondence analysis can be used to focus on, or partial out, aparticular set of response categories in sample survey data. For example, the method can beused to partial out the influence of missing responses, which usually dominate the results of amultiple correspondence analysis.

Demographic and behavioral factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Switzerland.

Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

Local-scale spatial variation in diversity of social wasps in an Amazonian rain forest in Caxiuanã, Pará, Brazil (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

Polistine wasps are important in Neotropical ecosystems due to their ubiquity and diversity. Inventories have not adequately considered spatial attributes of collected specimens. Spatial data on biodiversity are important for study and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts over natural ecosystems and for protecting species. We described and analyzed local-scale spatial patterns of collecting records of wasp species, as well as spatial variation of diversity descriptors in a 2500-hectare area of an Amazon forest in Brazil. Rare species comprised the largest fraction of the fauna. Close range spatial effects were detected for most of the more common species, with clustering of presence-data at short distances. Larger spatial lag effects could also be identified in some species, constituting probably cases of exogenous autocorrelation and candidates for explanations based on environmental factors. In a few cases, significant or near significant correlations were found between five species (of Agelaia, Angiopolybia, and Mischocyttarus) and three studied environmental variables: distance to nearest stream, terrain altitude, and the type of forest canopy. However, association between these factors and biodiversity variables were generally low. When used as predictors of polistine richness in a linear multiple regression, only the coefficient for the forest canopy variable resulted significant. Some level of prediction of wasp diversity variables can be attained based on environmental variables, especially vegetation structure. Large-scale landscape and regional studies should be scheduled to address this issue.

Correspondence analysis and categorical conjoint measurement

We show the equivalence between the use of correspondence analysis (CA)of concadenated tables and the application of a particular version ofconjoint analysis called categorical conjoint measurement (CCM). Theconnection is established using canonical correlation (CC). The second part introduces the interaction e¤ects in all three variants of theanalysis and shows how to pass between the results of each analysis.

Random measurement error and regression dilution bias.

Summary points: - The bias introduced by random measurement error will be different depending on whether the error is in an exposure variable (risk factor) or outcome variable (disease) - Random measurement error in an exposure variable will bias the estimates of regression slope coefficients towards the null - Random measurement error in an outcome variable will instead increase the standard error of the estimates and widen the corresponding confidence intervals, making results less likely to be statistically significant - Increasing sample size will help minimise the impact of measurement error in an outcome variable but will only make estimates more precisely wrong when the error is in an exposure variable

Cannabis and benzodiazepines as determinants of methadone trough plasma concentration variability in maintenance treatment: a transnational study.

PURPOSE: To assess tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and benzodiazepine use in methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) as potential sources of variability in methadone pharmacokinetics. METHODS: Trough plasma (R)- and (S)-methadone concentrations were measured on 77 Australian and 74 Swiss MMT patients with no additional medications other than benzodiazepines. Simple and multiple regression analyses were performed for the primary metric, plasma methadone concentration/dose. RESULTS: Cannabis and methadone dose were significantly associated with lower 24-h plasma (R)- and (S)-methadone concentrations/dose. The models containing these variables explained 14-16% and 17-25% of the variation in (R)- and (S)-methadone concentration/dose, respectively. Analysis of 61 patients using only CYP3A4 metabolised benzodiazepines showed this class to be associated with higher (R)-concentration/dose, which is consistent with a potential competitive inhibition of CYP3A4. CONCLUSION: Cannabis use and higher methadone doses in MMT could in part be a response to-or a cause of-more rapid methadone clearance. The effects of cannabis and benzodiazepines should be controlled for in future studies on methadone pharmacokinetics in MMT.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

The relationship between a short measure of health status and physical activity in a workplace population.

Many interventions promoting physical activity (PA) are effective in preventing disease onset, and although studies have found a positive relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQL) and PA, most of these studies have focused on older adults and those with chronic conditions. Less is known regarding the association between PA level and HRQL among healthy adults. Our objective was to analyse the relationship between PA level and HRQL among a sample of 573 employees aged 20-68 taking part in a workplace intervention to promote PA. Measures included HRQL (using a single item) and PA (i.e. Godin Leisure-Time Questionnaire). The Modified Canadian Aerobic Fitness Test (MCAFT) was also completed by 10% of the employees. MET-minute scores (assessing energy expenditure over one week) were compared across HRQL categories using ANOVA. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to further examine the relationship between HRQL and PA, controlling for potential covariates. Participants in the higher health status categories were found to report higher levels of energy expenditure (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression model, each unit increase in health status level translated in a mean increase of 356 MET-minutes in energy expenditure (p < 0.001). This single-item assessment of health status explained six percent of the variance in energy expenditure. The study concludes that higher energy expenditure through PA among an adult workplace population is positively associated with increased health status, and it also suggests that a single-item HRQL measure is suitable for community- and population-based studies, reducing response burden and research costs.

A prospective study of predictors of poststroke depression.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between early depressive behavior after stroke onset and occurrence of poststroke depression (PSD) at 3- and 12-month follow-up evaluations. METHODS: The study prospectively included 273 patients with first-ever single uncomplicated ischemic stroke. In the stroke unit, nurses scored crying, overt sadness, and apathy daily using an observational method to include patients with comprehension deficits. The Barthel Index was used to assess disability. Follow-up evaluation at months 3 and 12 included psychiatric assessment based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition. RESULTS: Crying (19.8%), overt sadness (50.5%), and apathy (47.6%) were observed. Of the patients observed crying, 4 showed pathologic crying, 19 emotionalism, and 12 catastrophic reactions. Crying and overt sadness, but not apathy, were associated with a subjective experience of depression (p < 0.05). Thirty of 52 (58%) patients observed crying, 12 of 19 (63%) patients with emotionalism, and 5 of 12 (41%) patients with catastrophic reactions developed PSD within the first year. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only severe functional disability (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% CI, 2.41 to 7.69), crying behaviors (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.35 to 5.27), and an age <68 years (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.30 to 4.13) were (p < 0.05) predictors of late PSD development (13% of the variance). CONCLUSIONS: In the stroke unit, crying and overt sadness are more reliable indicators of depressed mood than apathy. In patients with first-ever stroke, crying behaviors soon after stroke, a younger age, and severe disability are predictors of poststroke depression occurrence within the first year after stroke onset.

Relationship between physical inactivity and adiposity in prepubertal boys.

OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the energy expenditure for activity (EEAct), the level of activity and adiposity in a group of 9-year-old boys (n = 28) with different body composition (body weight, 38 +/- 10 kg [range, 23 to 66 kg]; fat mass, 23% +/- 10% [range, 8% to 42%]). METHODS: Total energy expenditure (TEE) was measured by means of the heart-rate monitoring method. EEAct was calculated as TEE-(REE+0.1 TEE), where REE is the postabsorptive resting energy expenditure and 0.1 TEE corresponds to the postprandial thermogenesis (approximately 10% of TEE). RESULTS: TEE, REE, and EEAct were 9388 +/- 1859, 5154 +/- 642, and 3295 +/- 1356 l J/day, respectively. Daily time devoted to sedentary and nonsedentary activities averaged 290 +/- 155 minutes (range, 69 to 621) and 534 +/- 150 minutes (range, 180 to 783), respectively. Time spent on sedentary activities was directly proportional to fat mass percentage (r = 0.46; p < 0.05). It was the only variable, among the free-living physical-activity [EEAct, TEE/(REE+0.1 TEE) ratio, time spent in nonsedentary and sedentary activities] variables, which remained significantly in the multiple step-down regression analysis final equation (r = 0.46; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The positive relationship between adiposity and time spent on sedentary activities in 9-year-old boys suggests the importance of the role played by muscular activity, at least in the maintenance of obesity in childhood. Prepubertal children should be encouraged to spend less time on sedentary activities to treat and prevent their obesity.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Integration of teacher education into the Swiss higher education system

The integration of specific institutions for teacher education into the higher education system represents a milestone in the Swiss educational policy and has broad implications. This thesis explores organizational and institutional change resulting from this policy reform, and attempts to assess structural change in terms of differentiation and convergence within the system of higher education. Key issues that are dealt with are, on the one hand, the adoption of a research function by the newly conceptualized institutions of teacher education, and on the other, the positioning of the new institutions within the higher education system. Drawing on actor-centred approaches to differentiation, this dissertation discusses system-level specificities of tertiarized teacher education and asks how this affects institutional configurations and actor constellations. On the basis of qualitative and quantitative empirical data, a comparative analysis has been carried out including case studies of four universities of teacher education as well as multivariate regression analysis of micro-level data on students' educational choices. The study finds that the process of system integration and adaption to the research function by the various institutions have unfolded differently depending on the institutional setting and the specific actor constellations. The new institutions have clearly made a strong push to position themselves as a new institutional type and to find their identity beyond the traditional binary divide which assigns the universities of teacher education to the college sector. Potential conflicts have been identified in divergent cognitive normative orientations and perceptions of researchers, teacher educators, policy-makers, teachers, and students as to the mission and role of the new type of higher education institution. - L'intégration dans le système d'enseignement supérieur d'institutions qui ont pour tâche spécifique de former des enseignants peut être considérée comme un événement majeur dans la politique éducative suisse, qui se trouve avoir des conséquences importantes à plusieurs niveaux. Cette thèse explore les changements organisationnels et institutionnels résultant de cette réforme politique, et elle se propose d'évaluer en termes de différentiation et de convergence les changements structurels intervenus dans le système d'éducation tertiaire. Les principaux aspects traités sont d'une part la nouvelle mission de recherche attribuée à ces institutions de formation pédagogique, et de l'autre la place par rapport aux autres institutions du système d'éducation tertiaire. Recourant à une approche centrée sur les acteurs pour étudier les processus de différen-tiation, la thèse met en lumière et en discussion les spécificités inhérentes au système tertiaire au sein duquel se joue la formation des enseignants nouvellement conçue et soulève la question des effets de cette nouvelle façon de former les enseignants sur les configurations institutionnelles et les constellations d'acteurs. Une analyse comparative a été réalisée sur la base de données qualitatives et quantitatives issues de quatre études de cas de hautes écoles pédagogiques et d'analyses de régression multiple de données de niveau micro concernant les choix de carrière des étudiants. Les résultats montrent à quel point le processus d'intégration dans le système et la nouvelle mission de recherche peuvent apparaître de manière différente selon le cadre institutionnel d'une école et la constellation spécifique des acteurs influents. A pu clairement être observée une forte aspiration des hautes écoles pédagogiques à se créer une identité au-delà de la structure binaire du système qui assigne la formation des enseignants au secteur des hautes écoles spéciali-sées. Des divergences apparaissent dans les conceptions et perceptions cognitives et normatives des cher-cheurs, formateurs, politiciens, enseignants et étudiants quant à la mission et au rôle de ce nouveau type de haute école. - Die Integration spezieller Institutionen für die Lehrerbildung ins Hochschulsystem stellt einen bedeutsamen Schritt mit weitreichenden Folgen in der Entwicklung des schweizerischen Bildungswesens dar. Diese Dissertation untersucht die mit der Neuerung verbundenen Veränderungen auf organisatorischer und institutioneller Ebene und versucht, die strukturelle Entwicklung unter den Gesichtspunkten von Differenzierung und Konvergenz innerhalb des tertiären Bildungssystems einzuordnen. Zentrale Themen sind dabei zum einen die Einführung von Forschung und Entwicklung als zusätzlichem Leistungsauftrag in der Lehrerbildung und zum andern die Positionierung der pädagogischen Hochschulen innerhalb des Hochschulsystems. Anhand akteurzentrierter Ansätze zur Differenzierung werden die Besonderheiten einer tertiarisierten Lehrerbildung hinsichtlich der Systemebenen diskutiert und Antworten auf die Frage gesucht, wie die Reform die institutionellen Konfigurationen und die Akteurkonstellationen beeinflusst. Auf der Grundlage qualitativer und quantitativer Daten wurde eine vergleichende Analyse durchgeführt, welche Fallstudien zu vier pädagogischen Hochschulen umfasst sowie Regressionsanalysen von Mikrodaten zur Studienwahl von Maturanden. Die Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass sich der Prozess der Systemintegration und die Einführung von Forschung in die Lehrerbildung in Abhängigkeit von institutionellen Ordnungen und der jeweiligen Akteurkonstellation unterschiedlich gestalten. Es lässt sich bei den neu gegründeten pädagogischen Hochschulen ein starkes Bestreben feststellen, sich als neuen Hochschultypus zu positionieren und sich eine Identität zu schaffen jenseits der herkömmlichen binären Struktur, welche die pädagogischen Hochschulen dem Fachhochschul-Sektor zuordnet. Potentielle Konflikte zeichnen sich ab in den divergierenden kognitiven und normativen Orientierungen und Wahrnehmungen von Forschern, Ausbildern, Bildungspolitikern, Lehrern und Studierenden hinsichtlich des Auftrags und der Rolle dieses neuen Typs Hochschule.

Predictors of poor response to methotrexate in polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis: analysis of the PRINTO methotrexate trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether baseline demographic, clinical, articular and laboratory variables predict methotrexate (MTX) poor response in polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis. METHODS: Patients newly treated for 6 months with MTX enrolled in the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) MTX trial. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were used to identify baseline predictors of poor response according to the American College of Rheumatology pediatric (ACR-ped) 30 and 70 criteria. RESULTS: In all, 405/563 (71.9%) of patients were women; median age at onset and disease duration were 4.3 and 1.4 years, respectively, with anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) detected in 259/537 (48.2%) patients. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, the most important determinants of ACR-ped 70 non-responders were: disease duration > 1.3 years (OR 1.93), ANA negativity (OR 1.77), Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) disability index > 1.125 (OR 1.65) and the presence of right and left wrist activity (OR 1.55). Predictors of ACR-ped 30 non-responders were: ANA negativity (OR 1.92), CHAQ disability index > 1.14 (OR 2.18) and a parent's evaluation of child's overall well-being < or = 4.69 (OR 2.2). CONCLUSION: The subgroup of patients with longer disease duration, ANA negativity, higher disability and presence of wrist activity were significantly associated with a poorer response to a 6-month MTX course.