Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

EFEITOS da SIMULAÇÃO DE DERIVA DE CLOMAZONE em PLANTAS DE LARANJEIRA 'HAMLIN'

Em trabalho realizado em 1998, no município de Taiúva-SP, objetivou-se avaliar o efeito da simulação da deriva de doses crescentes, até atingir a recomendada comercialmente, de clomazone, em duas formulações, e de clomazone em mistura com ametryne, em laranjeira-'Hamlin' com frutos com 2 a 4 cm de diâmetro. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos casualizados, com 15 tratamentos, em 3 repetições. As avaliações basearam-se em possíveis alterações morfofisiológicas das plantas, com determinações do teor de clorofila total nas folhas, porcentagem de abortamento de frutos, além de análise tecnológica dos frutos. Concluiu-se que a dose comercial de clomazone isolado e em mistura com ametryne a 50 e 100% da dose resultou na formação de manchas cloróticas e/ou necróticas na casca do fruto e causou mortalidade de ramos que se encontravam em crescimento vegetativo, não acarretando qualquer alteração qualitativa do suco.

Simulação e análise econômica da produção in vivo e in vitro de embriões em bovinos

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the variables number of recipients, synchronization protocol, reproductive efficiency indicators and pregnancy cost, in the economic effectiveness of in vivo and in vitro bovine embryo production. A simulation application was elaborated to allow the user to insert the input variable parameters. A basic scenario, from the efficiency traditional rates of in vivo (ET) and in vitro production (IVP) techniques of bovine embryos, was introduced in the software as a criterion to compare the results. This software was able to reproduce both ET and IVP scenarios. The embryo production was simulated through stochastic simulation. The optimal number of recipients using sensitivity analysis was determined. The net present value and cost per pregnancy were used as a decision parameter. The synchronization for fixed-time embryo transfer decreased the recipient idleness and, consequently, the final cost of pregnancy, in comparison to the traditional methodology. Foetal sexing must be associated to IVP of bovine embryos. In addition, the optimal recipient number per donor is variable and depends on data inserted in the system.

Modelagem e estimação de parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos para pesos do nascimento à seleção (378 dias) de machos Nelore

Genetic parameters for weights (17, 942 records), obtained in intervals of 60 days, from the birth to selection (378 days of age), of 2,582 males of the Nellore breed was estimated in univariate analyses by the Maximum Restricted Likelihood method. The models of analysis models included the fixed effects of contemporary groups, month of birth, mother age and age when the weights were collected as covariate. Three models differing in random effects were tested: the model 1 (M1) was adjusted for the direct and maternal addictive genetic effects and maternal permanent environment; in model 2 (M2) the maternal genetic effect was excluded; and the model 3 (M3) was only adjusted for the direct addictive genetic effect. The test of likelihood (LRT) detected significant differences, for all the ages, of M2 and M1 in relation to the simple model (M3), evidencing the importance of the maternal effects. Except for the birth weight (0.40), low values (0.05 to 0.12) of h(2) were found for M1 and M2 until 8 months of age and, after this period, reasonable increase could be observed, reaching 0.28 until 13 months of age. The estimates of the total variance fraction, due to the effect of maternal permanent environment, were high and practically became unaffected between the models 1 and 2. Maternal effects, not necessarily decomposed (in genetic addictive and permanent environment), affected the Nellore males growth. Models that contemplate maternal effects, besides the genetic addictive direct effects, are more realistic to describe the trajectory of the variances in the initial phases of growth of Nelore male calves.

Índice de cobertura vegetal e sua modelagem para cultivares de soja no sul de Minas Gerais

A cobertura vegetal do solo é decisiva para redução dos efeitos erosivos do impacto direto das gotas de chuva na superfície do solo. Desta forma, objetivou-se com este estudo determinar o índice de cobertura vegetal (CV) e desenvolver modelos para sua estimativa para a cultura da soja, usando os atributos climáticos no período de chuvas intensas no Sul de Minas Gerais. As determinações da CV foram feitas semanalmente, na área experimental do Departamento de Ciência do Solo, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), no período de novembro de 1999 a maio de 2000, em 28 cultivares de soja com potencial para cultivo nesta região. Para avaliação da cobertura vegetal foi utilizada a metodologia descrita por Stocking (1988). Na modelagem procurou-se relacionar a CV com os valores acumulados dos seguintes atributos climáticos: temperatura média (Tmed), precipitação (PREC) e umidade relativa do ar (UR). Os valores de cobertura vegetal apresentaram uma amplitude de variação de 56 a 83%, sendo BR 162, LO 12 L e M. Soy 108 as cultivares mais eficientes e FT Abyara e Tucano as menos eficientes. O hábito diferencial de crescimento das cultivares ajuda a explicar esse comportamento. O modelo ajustado adequado para estimativa da CV foi: CV = 116589,976 + 0,422 . Tmed + 0,132 . PREC - 0,095 . UR + 0,000024 . Tmed², R² = 0,99 (P < 0,01). A determinação da CV nas diferentes fases de desenvolvimento da cultura é de grande importância, uma vez que seu estabelecimento coincide com o período de maior potencial erosivo das chuvas na região estudada.

Modelagem numérica de estruturas de contenção atirantadas em areia

A numerical study on the behavior of tied-back retaining walls in sand, using the finite element method (FEM) is presented. The analyses were performed using the software Plaxis 2D, and were focused on the development of horizontal displacements, horizontal stresses, shear forces and bending moments in the structure during the construction process. Emphasis was placed on the evaluation of wall embedment, tie-back horizontal spacing, wall thickness, and free anchor length on wall behavior. A representative soil profile of a specific region at the City of Natal, Brazil, was used in the numerical analyses. New facilities built on this region often include retaining structures of the same type studied herein. Soil behavior was modeled using the Mohr-Coulomb constitutive model, whereas the structural elements were modeled using the linear elastic model. Shear strength parameters of the soil layers were obtained from direct shear test results conducted with samples collected at the studied site. Deformation parameters were obtained from empirical correlations from SPT test results carried out on the studied site. The results of the numerical analyses revealed that the effect of wall embedment on the investigated parameters is virtually negligible. Conversely, the tie-back horizontal spacing plays an important role on the investigated parameters. The results also demonstrated that the wall thickness significantly affects the wall horizontal displacements, and the shear forces and bending moments within the retaining structure. However, wall thickness was not found to influence horizontal stresses in the structure

Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Modelagem de dados de falhas de equipamentos de sub-superfície em poços de petróleo da Bacia Potiguar

This master´s thesis presents a reliability study conducted among onshore oil fields in the Potiguar Basin (RN/CE) of Petrobras company, Brazil. The main study objective was to build a regression model to predict the risk of failures that impede production wells to function properly using the information of explanatory variables related to wells such as the elevation method, the amount of water produced in the well (BSW), the ratio gas-oil (RGO), the depth of the production bomb, the operational unit of the oil field, among others. The study was based on a retrospective sample of 603 oil columns from all that were functioning between 2000 and 2006. Statistical hypothesis tests under a Weibull regression model fitted to the failure data allowed the selection of some significant predictors in the set considered to explain the first failure time in the wells

Modelagem de decisão na seleção de equipamento: um estudo usando o processo analítico hierárquico na contratação de sondas de perfuração de poços de petróleo

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

Modelagem de arranjos institucionais para implementação da diretriz de sistema de gestão de segurança e saúde ocupacional da organização internacional do trabalho ILO/OSH 2001 no brasil

The commitment assumed by Brazil to ILO in order to pursue actions toward the ILO/OSH-2001 adoption in the country poses the issue of modeling the institutional arrangement the set roles and relationship between government, standards organizations, health and safety organizations, professionals and other institutions to deploy the ILO/OSH-2001. This Thesis develop institutional arrangement models based on the current model and also in the ISO 9000 scheme and others. It is studied the US case with OSHA and VPP, the OHSAS 18001 and ANSI/AIHA Z-10, in addition to actual context of the regulating norms NR s. The scenarios developed are put to evaluation on feasibility, potential changes and effects on current MTE auditors work scheme. The main results are five scenarios developed and that the MTE auditors tend to be reactive to the change toward the ILO/OSH-2001.

Modelagem situada de metodologia da oficina de desenho de renda de bilros

The bobbin lace, a secular art in the process of extinction in the Village Ponta Negra in Natal, Brazil, was one of the main means of income generation for some families in town, but over time, there was growing disaffection of the younger generation to learn and practice this art, due to the high demand of time for production and insufficient and not guaranteed financial return . This project aims to promote the recovery of control over the product in the production of bobbin lace in the village of Ponta Negra, by design and implementation of a workshop for the transfer of drawing techniques in the Production Center of Craft in Village of Ponta Negra. This design was based on the methodology of Ergonomic Work Analysis and in the concepts of anthropotechnology and technology social. The ergonomic analysis, by advocating and enforcing the social and technical building, was essential for the modeling of this workshop, as allowed the construction of a social participative device , with the participation of the community groups and the external group of researchers, in a process of social construction technique. As a result, it was observed that the transfer of technical design of bobbin lace molds came to complement the learning of art office, providing solutions to promote the sustainable development of the group of tenants, in an attempt to reduce the risk of extinction eminent, and also contributed to reactivate a network of economic activities interconnected to the craft, such as the production of cushions, lace and easels

Uma modelagem de indicadores de desempenho para instituições de ensino superior no Brasil na abordagem do balanced scorecard: um estudo com instituições privadas

This Master of Science Thesis deals with a BSC modeling for higher education institution focusing on private institution in the Brazilian context. It‟s accomplished a literature review in order to understand the BSC and its application to for profit and non for profit organizations and as a main result it is proposed a BSC conceptual model with a new perspective (Government) and a change in the hierarchy of the main BSC perspective equaling financial to customer/society. Taking the national higher education assessment system of Education Ministry indicators a model is deployed and the relations between the indicators are measured with the Pearson correlation coefficient. As a result a model emerges with sound relations of indicators but a improvement in the financial indicators is needed

Estudo de estratégias de otimização para poços de petróleo com elevação por bombeio de cavidades progressivas

The progressing cavity pump artificial lift system, PCP, is a main lift system used in oil production industry. As this artificial lift application grows the knowledge of it s dynamics behavior, the application of automatic control and the developing of equipment selection design specialist systems are more useful. This work presents tools for dynamic analysis, control technics and a specialist system for selecting lift equipments for this artificial lift technology. The PCP artificial lift system consists of a progressing cavity pump installed downhole in the production tubing edge. The pump consists of two parts, a stator and a rotor, and is set in motion by the rotation of the rotor transmitted through a rod string installed in the tubing. The surface equipment generates and transmits the rotation to the rod string. First, is presented the developing of a complete mathematical dynamic model of PCP system. This model is simplified for use in several conditions, including steady state for sizing PCP equipments, like pump, rod string and drive head. This model is used to implement a computer simulator able to help in system analysis and to operates as a well with a controller and allows testing and developing of control algorithms. The next developing applies control technics to PCP system to optimize pumping velocity to achieve productivity and durability of downhole components. The mathematical model is linearized to apply conventional control technics including observability and controllability of the system and develop design rules for PI controller. Stability conditions are stated for operation point of the system. A fuzzy rule-based control system are developed from a PI controller using a inference machine based on Mandami operators. The fuzzy logic is applied to develop a specialist system that selects PCP equipments too. The developed technics to simulate and the linearized model was used in an actual well where a control system is installed. This control system consists of a pump intake pressure sensor, an industrial controller and a variable speed drive. The PI control was applied and fuzzy controller was applied to optimize simulated and actual well operation and the results was compared. The simulated and actual open loop response was compared to validate simulation. A case study was accomplished to validate equipment selection specialist system

Metodologia para modelagem, validação e programação de controladores lógicos industriais usando statecharts básicos

Due of industrial informatics several attempts have been done to develop notations and semantics, which are used for classifying and describing different kind of system behavior, particularly in the modeling phase. Such attempts provide the infrastructure to resolve some real problems of engineering and construct practical systems that aim at, mainly, to increase the productivity, quality, and security of the process. Despite the many studies that have attempted to develop friendly methods for industrial controller programming, they are still programmed by conventional trial-and-error methods and, in practice, there is little written documentation on these systems. The ideal solution would be to use a computational environment that allows industrial engineers to implement the system using high-level language and that follows international standards. Accordingly, this work proposes a methodology for plant and control modelling of the discrete event systems that include sequential, parallel and timed operations, using a formalism based on Statecharts, denominated Basic Statechart (BSC). The methodology also permits automatic procedures to validate and implement these systems. To validate our methodology, we presented two case studies with typical examples of the manufacturing sector. The first example shows a sequential control for a tagged machine, which is used to illustrated dependences between the devices of the plant. In the second example, we discuss more than one strategy for controlling a manufacturing cell. The model with no control has 72 states (distinct configurations) and, the model with sequential control generated 20 different states, but they only act in 8 distinct configurations. The model with parallel control generated 210 different states, but these 210 configurations act only in 26 distinct configurations, therefore, one strategy control less restrictive than previous. Lastly, we presented one example for highlight the modular characteristic of our methodology, which it is very important to maintenance of applications. In this example, the sensors for identifying pieces in the plant were removed. So, changes in the control model are needed to transmit the information of the input buffer sensor to the others positions of the cell

Um ambiente computacional para modelagem simbólica de sistemas físicos lineares

Este trabalho propõe um ambiente computacional aplicado ao ensino de sistemas de controle, denominado de ModSym. O software implementa uma interface gráfica para a modelagem de sistemas físicos lineares e mostra, passo a passo, o processamento necessário à obtenção de modelos matemáticos para esses sistemas. Um sistema físico pode ser representado, no software, de três formas diferentes. O sistema pode ser representado por um diagrama gráfico a partir de elementos dos domínios elétrico, mecânico translacional, mecânico rotacional e hidráulico. Pode também ser representado a partir de grafos de ligação ou de diagramas de fluxo de sinal. Uma vez representado o sistema, o ModSym possibilita o cálculo de funções de transferência do sistema na forma simbólica, utilizando a regra de Mason. O software calcula também funções de transferência na forma numérica e funções de sensibilidade paramétrica. O trabalho propõe ainda um algoritmo para obter o diagrama de fluxo de sinal de um sistema físico baseado no seu grafo de ligação. Este algoritmo e a metodologia de análise de sistemas conhecida por Network Method permitiram a utilização da regra de Mason no cálculo de funções de transferência dos sistemas modelados no software