940 resultados para MCMC, Metropolis Hastings, Gibbs, Bayesian, OBMC, slice sampler, Python


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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This study aimed to evaluate the potential for milk production (MP), lactation length (LL) and calving interval (CI), analyze the environmental component affecting these traits, and to estimate the heritability and repeatability for milk production in crossbreds of Murrah buffalo cows in the state of Alagoas, Brazil. Data was composed of 487 observations of MP from 136 lactations recorded between the years of 2000 and 2010. In the analysis of variance for PL, the fixed effects were season (1- October to March, 2 -April to September) and year of the beginning of lactation, calving order and the LL (covariate). For the analysis of LL only the fixed effect of year of the beginning of lactation was included, and finally for the CI analysis, year of the beginning of lactation and calving order. The estimates of covariance were obtained using unicharacteristic analysis by Bayesian inference method, applyingan animal model, through Gibbs sampling. The additive genetic, permanent environment and residual effects were included as random effects in the model. The averages (sd) of MP, LL and CI were 2,218.03 kg (408.18), 282.59 days (39.48) e 422.49 days (91.05), respectively. All the effects included in the models were important (P<0.01). The estimates of heritability and repeatability for PL were 0.29 and 0.69, respectively. The results suggest that there is a moderate genetic variability among individuals for PL, indicating the possibility to obtain gain using selection.

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This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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An important goal of Zebu breeding programs is to improve reproductive performance. A major problem faced with the genetic improvement of reproductive traits is that recording the time for an animal to reach sexual maturity is costly. Another issue is that accurate estimates of breeding values are obtained only a long time after the young bulls have gone through selection. An alternative to overcome these problems is to use traits that are indicators of the reproductive efficiency of the herd and are easier to measure, such as age at first calving. Another problem is that heifers that have conceived once may fail to conceive in the next breeding season, which increases production costs. Thus, increasing heifer's rebreeding rates should improve the economic efficiency of the herd. Response to selection for these traits tends to be slow, since they have a low heritability and phenotypic information is provided only later in the life of the animal. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are useful to investigate the genetic mechanisms that underlie these traits by identifying the genes and metabolic pathways involved. Data from 1853 females belonging to the Agricultural Jacarezinho LTDA were used. Genotyping was performed using the BovineHD BeadChip (777 962 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)) according to the protocol of Illumina - Infinium Assay II ® Multi-Sample HiScan with the unit SQ ™ System. After quality control, 305 348 SNPs were used for GWAS. Forty-two and 19 SNPs had a Bayes factor greater than 150 for heifer rebreeding and age at first calving, respectively. All significant SNPs for age at first calving were significant for heifer rebreeding. These 42 SNPs were next or within 35 genes that were distributed over 18 chromosomes and comprised 27 protein-encoding genes, six pseudogenes and two miscellaneous noncoding RNAs. The use of Bayes factor to determine the significance of SNPs allowed us to identify two sets of 42 and 19 significant SNPs for heifer rebreeding and age at first calving, respectively, which explain 11.35 % and 6.42 % of their phenotypic variance, respectively. These SNPs provide relevant information to help elucidate which genes affect these traits.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a public health problem throughout the world and 3% of the world population is infected with this virus. It is estimated that 3-4 millions individuals are being infected every year. It has been estimated that around 1.5% of Brazilian population is anti-HCV positive and the Northeast region showed the highest prevalence in Brazil. The aim of this study was to characterize HCV genotypes circulating in Pernambuco State (PE), Brazil, located in the Northeast region of the country. This study included 85 anti-HCV positive patients followed up between 2004 and 2011. For genotyping, a 380bp fragment of HCV RNA in the NS5B region was amplified by nested PCR. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) using BEAST v.1.5.3. From 85 samples, 63 (74.1%) positive to NS5B fragment were successfully sequenced. Subtype 1b was the most prevalent in this population (42-66.7%), followed by 3a (16-25.4%), 1a (4-6.3%) and 2b (1-1.6%). Twelve (63.1%) and seven (36.9%) patients with HCV and schistosomiasis were infected with subtypes 1b and 3a, respectively. Brazil is a large country with many different population backgrounds; a large variation in the frequencies of HCV genotypes is predictable throughout its territory. This study reports HCV genotypes from Pernambuco State where subtype 1b was found to be the most prevalent. Phylogenetic analysis suggests the presence of the different HCV strains circulating within this population. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.