A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

Digital image correlation analysis of the load transfer by implant-supported restorations

This study compared splinted and non-splinted implant-supported prosthesis with and without a distal proximal contact using a digital image correlation method. An epoxy resin model was made with acrylic resin replicas of a mandibular first premolar and second molar and with threaded implants replacing the second premolar and first molar. Splinted and non-splinted metal-ceramic screw-retained crowns were fabricated and loaded with and without the presence of the second molar. A single-camera measuring system was used to record the in-plane deformation on the model surface at a frequency of 1.0 Hz under a load from 0 to 250 N. The images were then analyzed with specialist software to determine the direct (horizontal) and shear strains along the model. Not splinting the crowns resulted in higher stress transfer to the supporting implants when the second molar replica was absent. The presence of a second molar and an effective interproximal contact contributed to lower stress transfer to the supporting structures even for non-splinted restorations. Shear strains were higher in the region between the molars when the second molar was absent, regardless of splinting. The opposite was found for the region between the implants, which had higher shear strain values when the second molar was present. When an effective distal contact is absent, non-splinted implant-supported restorations introduce higher direct strains to the supporting structures under loading. Shear strains appear to be dependent also on the region within the model, with different regions showing different trends in strain changes in the absence of an effective distal contact. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DC traction load flow including AC distribution network

In the first part some information and characterisation about an AC distribution network that feeds traction substations and their possible influences on the DC traction load flow are presented. Those influences are investigated and mathematically modelled. To corroborate the mathematical model, an example is presented and their results are confronted with real measurements.

Variety matters: adaptive genetic diversity and parasite load in two mouse opossums from the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The adaptive potential of a species to a changing environment and in disease defence is primarily based on genetic variation. Immune genes, such as genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), may thereby be of particular importance. In marsupials, however, there is very little knowledge about natural levels and functional importance of MHC polymorphism, despite their key role in the mammalian evolution. In a previous study, we discovered remarkable differences in the MHC class II diversity between two species of mouse opossums (Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops incanus) from the Brazilian Atlantic forest, which is one of the most endangered hotspots for biodiversity conservation. Since the main forces in generating MHC diversity are assumed to be pathogens, we investigated in this study gastrointestinal parasite burden and functional associations between the individual MHC constitution and parasite load. We tested two contrasting scenarios, which might explain differences in MHC diversity between species. We predicted that a species with low MHC diversity would either be under relaxed selection pressure by low parasite diversity (`Evolutionary equilibrium` scenario), or there was a recent loss in MHC diversity leading to a lack of resistance alleles and increased parasite burden (`Unbalanced situation` scenario). In both species it became apparent that the MHC class II is functionally important in defence against gastrointestinal helminths, which was shown here for the first time in marsupials. On the population level, parasite diversity did not markedly differ between the two host species. However, we did observe considerable differences in the individual parasite load (parasite prevalence and infection intensity): while M. incanus revealed low MHC DAB diversity and high parasite load, G. microtarsus showed a tenfold higher population wide MHC DAB diversity and lower parasite burden. These results support the second scenario of an unbalanced situation.

Inflammation and adipose tissue: effects of progressive load training in rats

Introduction: Cytokines (IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-alpha) are increased after exhaustive exercise in the rat retroperitoneal (RPAT) and mesenteric adipose tissue (MEAT) pads. On the other hand, these cytokines show decreased expression in these depots in response to a chronic exercise protocol. However, the effect of exercise with overload combined with a short recovery period on pro-and anti-inflammatory cytokine expression is unknown. In the present study, we investigated the regulation of cytokine production in the adipose tissue of rats after an overtraining-inducing exercise protocol. Methods: Male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: Control (C), Trained (Tr), Overtrained (OT) and recovered overtrained (R). Cytokines (IL-6, TNF-alpha and IL-10) levels and Toll Like Receptor 4 (TLR4), Nuclear Factor kBBp65 (NF-kBp65), Hormone Sensitive Lipase (HSL) and, Perilipin protein expression were assessed in the adipose tissue. Furthermore, we analysed plasma lipid profile, insulin, testosterone, corticosterone and endotoxin levels, and liver triacylglycerol, cytokine content, as well as apolipoprotein B (apoB) and TLR4 expression in the liver. Results: OT and R groups exhibited reduced performance accompanied by lower testosterone and increased corticosterone and endotoxin levels when compared with the control and trained groups. IL-6 and IL-10 protein levels were increased in the adipose tissue of the group allowed to recover, in comparison with all the other studied groups. TLR-4 and NF-kBp65 were increased in this same group when compared with both control and trained groups. The protein expression of HSL was increased and that of Perilipin, decreased in the adipose in R in relation to the control. In addition, we found increased liver and serum TAG, along with reduced apoB protein expression and IL-6 and IL-10 levels in the of R in relation to the control and trained groups. Conclusion: In conclusion, we have shown that increases in pro-inflammatory cytokines in the adipose tissue after an overtraining protocol may be mediated via TLR-4 and NF-kBp65 signalling, leading to an inflammatory state in this tissue.

Apoptosis of macrophages during pulmonary Mycobacterium bovis infection: correlation with intracellular bacillary load and cytokine levels

P>Apoptosis of macrophages infected with pathogenic mycobacteria is an alternative host defence capable of removing the environment supporting bacterial growth. In this work the influence of virulence and bacterial load on apoptosis of alveolar macrophages during the initial phase of infection by Mycobacterium bovis was investigated. BALB/c mice were infected intratracheally with high or low doses of the virulent (ATCC19274) or attenuated (bacillus Calmette-Guerin Moreau) strains of M. bovis. The frequency of macrophage apoptosis, the growth of mycobacteria in macrophages, and the in situ levels of the cytokines tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin-10 (IL-10) and IL-12 and of the anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2 were measured at day 3 and day 7 post-infection. An increase of macrophage apoptosis was observed after infection with both strains but the virulent strain induced less apoptosis than the attenuated strain. On the 3rd day after infection with the virulent strain macrophage apoptosis was reduced in the high-dose group, while on the 7th day post-infection macrophage apoptosis was reduced in the low-dose group. Inhibition of apoptosis was correlated with increased production of IL-10, reduced production of TNF-alpha and increased production of Bcl-2. In addition, the production of IL-12 was reduced at points where the lowest levels of macrophage apoptosis were observed. Our results indicate that virulent mycobacteria are able to modulate macrophage apoptosis to an extent dependent on the intracellular bacterial burden, which benefits its intracellular growth and dissemination to adjacent cells.

Clinical correlations of human cytomegalovirus strains and viral load in kidney transplant recipients

Little is known about clinical differences associated with cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection by distinct strains in renal transplant patients. Different clinical pictures may be associated with specific viral genotypes. viral load, as well as host factors. The objective of this study was to identify CMV strains to determine viral load (antigenemia), and their correlation with clinical data in renal transplant recipients. Seventy-one patients were enrolled, comprising 91 samples. After selection, polymorphonuclear cells were used to amplify and sequence the gB region of CMV DNA. The sequences were analyzed to ascertain the frequency of different genotypes. Additionally, the results of this Study showed that the gB coding gene presents a great variability, revealing a variety of patterns: classical gB (1.4%), gB1V (46.4%), classical gB2 (35.2%), gB2V (2.8%), gB3 (1.4%), classical gB4 (4.9%) and gB4V (4.9%). The mean viral load in kidney transplant patient was 75.1 positive cells (1-1000). A higher viral load was observed in patients with genotype 4 infection. Statistically significant differences were detected between gB1 and gB4 (p=0.010), and between gB2 and gB4 (p=0.021). The average numbers of positive cells in relation to clinical presentation were: 34.5 in asymptomatic, 49.5 in CMV associated syndrome and 120.7 in patients with invasive disease (p=0.048). As a group, gB1 was the most frequent strain and revealed a potential risk for developing invasive disease. Viral load also seemed to be important as a marker associated with clinical presentation of the disease. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tempol ameliorates murine viral encephalomyelitis by preserving the blood-brain barrier, reducing viral load, and lessening inflammation

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a progressive inflammatory and/or demyelinating disease of the human central nervous system (CNS). Most of the knowledge about the pathogenesis of MS has been derived from murine models, such as experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis and vital encephalomyelitis. Here, we infected female C57BL/6 mice with a neurotropic strain of the mouse hepatitis virus (MHV-59A) to evaluate whether treatment with the multifunctional antioxidant tempol (4-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-1-piperidinyloxy) affects the ensuing encephalomyelitis. In untreated animals, neurological symptoms developed quickly: 90% of infected mice died 10 days after virus inoculation and the few survivors presented neurological deficits. Treatment with tempol (24 mg/kg, ip, two doses on the first day and daily doses for 7 days plus 2 mM tempol in the drinking water ad libitum) profoundly altered the disease outcome: neurological symptoms were attenuated, mouse survival increased up to 70%, and half of the survivors behaved as normal mice. Not Surprisingly, tempol substantially preserved the integrity of the CNS, including the blood-brain barrier. Furthermore, treatment with tempol decreased CNS vital titers, macrophage and T lymphocyte infiltration, and levels of markers of inflammation, such as expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase, transcription of tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interferon-gamma, and protein nitration. The results indicate that tempol ameliorates murine viral encephalomyelitis by altering the redox status of the infectious environment that contributes to an attenuated CNS inflammatory response. overall, our study supports the development of therapeutic strategies based on nitroxides to manage neuroinflammatory diseases, including MS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nickel catalysts supported on ZrO2, Y2O3-stabilized ZrO2 and CaO-stabilized ZrO2 for the steam reforming of ethanol: Effect of the support and nickel load

Catalysts with various nickel loads were prepared on supports of ZrO2, ZrO2-Y2O3 and ZrO2-CaO, characterized by XRD and TPR and tested for activity in ethanol steam reforming. XRD of the supports identified the monoclinic crystalline phase in the ZrO2 and cubic phases in the ZrO2-Y2O3 and ZrO2-CaO supports. In the catalysts, the nickel impregnated on the supports was identified as the NiO phase. In the TPR analysis, peaks were observed showing the NiO phase having different interactions with the supports. In the catalytic tests, practically all the catalysts achieved 100% ethanol conversion, H-2 yield was near 70% and the gaseous concentrations of the other co-products varied in accordance with the equilibrium among them, affected principally by the supports. It was observed that when the ZrO2 was modified with Y2O3 and CaO, there were big changes in the CO and CO2 concentrations, which were attributed to the rise in the number of oxygen vacancies, permitting high-oxygen mobility and affecting the gaseous equilibrium. The liquid products analysis showed a low selectivity to liquid co-products during the reforming reactions. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Load balancing solution and evaluation of F5 content switch equipment

The Thesis focused on hardware based Load balancing solution of web traffic through a load balancer F5 content switch. In this project, the implemented scenario for distributing HTTPtraffic load is based on different CPU usages (processing speed) of multiple member servers.Two widely used load balancing algorithms Round Robin (RR) and Ratio model (weighted Round Robin) are implemented through F5 load balancer. For evaluating the performance of F5 content switch, some experimental tests has been taken on implemented scenarios using RR and Ratio model load balancing algorithms. The performance is examined in terms of throughput (bits/sec) and Response time of member servers in a load balancing pool. From these experiments we have observed that Ratio Model load balancing algorithm is most suitable in the environment of load balancing servers with different CPU usages as it allows assigning the weight according to CPU usage both in static and dynamic load balancing of servers.

A Unified Load Generator for Geographically Distributed Generation ofNetwork Traffic

During the last decade, the Internet usage has been growing at an enormous rate which has beenaccompanied by the developments of network applications (e.g., video conference, audio/videostreaming, E-learning, E-Commerce and real-time applications) and allows several types ofinformation including data, voice, picture and media streaming. While end-users are demandingvery high quality of service (QoS) from their service providers, network undergoes a complex trafficwhich leads the transmission bottlenecks. Considerable effort has been made to study thecharacteristics and the behavior of the Internet. Simulation modeling of computer networkcongestion is a profitable and effective technique which fulfills the requirements to evaluate theperformance and QoS of networks. To simulate a single congested link, simulation is run with asingle load generator while for a larger simulation with complex traffic, where the nodes are spreadacross different geographical locations generating distributed artificial loads is indispensable. Onesolution is to elaborate a load generation system based on master/slave architecture.

Load and Season Adapted Solar Collectors

In Sweden solar irradiation and space heating loads are unevenly distributed over the year. Domestic hot water loads may be nearly constant. Test results on solar collector performance are often reported as yearly output of a certain collector at fixed temperatures, e g 25, 50 and 75 C. These data are not suitable for dimensioning of solar systems, because the actual performance of the collector depends heavily on solar fraction and load distribution over the year.At higher latitudes it is difficult to attain high solar fractions for buildings, due to overheating in summer and small marginal output for added collector area. Solar collectors with internal reflectors offer possibilities to evade overheating problems and deliver more energy at seasons when the load is higher. There are methods for estimating the yearly angular irradiation distribution, but there is a lack of methods for describing the load and the storage in such a way as to enable optical design of season and load adapted collectors.This report describes two methods for estimation of solar system performance with relevance for season and load adaption. Results regarding attainable solar fractions as a function of collector features, load profiles, load levels and storage characteristics are reported. The first method uses monthly collector output data at fixed temperatures from the simulation program MINSUN for estimating solar fractions for different load profiles and load levels. The load level is defined as estimated yearly collector output at constant collector temperature divided be yearly load. This table may examplify the results:CollectorLoadLoadSolar Improvementtypeprofile levelfractionover flat plateFlat plateDHW 75 %59 %Load adaptedDHW 75 %66 %12 %Flat plateSpace heating 50 %22 %Load adaptedSpace heating 50 %28 %29 %The second method utilises simulations with one-hour timesteps for collectors connected to a simplified storage and a variable load. Collector output, optical and thermal losses, heat overproduction, load level and storage temperature are presented as functions of solar incidence angles. These data are suitable for optical design of load adapted solar collectors. Results for a Stockholm location indicate that a solar combisystem with a solar fraction around 30 % should have collectors that reduce heat production at solar heights above 30 degrees and have optimum efficiency for solar heights between 8 and 30 degrees.

Load Adapted Solar Thermal Combisystems - Optical Analysis and Systems Optimization

In a northern European climate a typical solar combisystem for a single family house normally saves between 10 and 30 % of the auxiliary energy needed for space heating and domestic water heating. It is considered uneconomical to dimension systems for higher energy savings. Overheating problems may also occur. One way of avoiding these problems is to use a collector that is designed so that it has a low optical efficiency in summer, when the solar elevation is high and the load is small, and a high optical efficiency in early spring and late fall when the solar elevation is low and the load is large.The study investigates the possibilities to design the system and, in particular, the collector optics, in order to match the system performance with the yearly variations of the heating load and the solar irradiation. It seems possible to design practically viable load adapted collectors, and to use them for whole roofs ( 40 m2) without causing more overheating stress on the system than with a standard 10 m2 system. The load adapted collectors collect roughly as much energy per unit area as flat plate collectors, but they may be produced at a lower cost due to lower material costs. There is an additional potential for a cost reduction since it is possible to design the load adapted collector for low stagnation temperatures making it possible to use less expensive materials. One and the same collector design is suitable for a wide range of system sizes and roof inclinations. The report contains descriptions of optimized collector designs, properties of realistic collectors, and results of calculations of system output, stagnation performance and cost performance. Appropriate computer tools for optical analysis, optimization of collectors in systems and a very fast simulation model have been developed.