Experimentation and thermodynamic representations of binaries containing compounds of low boiling points: pentane and alkyl methanoates

[EN]This work presents experimental mixing properties, hEand vE, at several temperatures and the iso-baric vapor–liquid equilibria (iso-p VLE) at 101.32 kPa for four binaries containing pentane and four alkyl(methyl to butyl) methanoates. Particular conditions are established to work with these solutions withhighly volatile compounds, especially for the case of methyl methanoate + pentane system, for whicha continuous feeding device is designed and constructed for measuring the densities.

Improvements in the experimentation and the representation of thermodynamic properties (iso-p VLE and y) of alkyl propanoate+alkane binaries

[EN]This paper presents the experimental measurements of isobaric vapor−liquid equilibria (iso-p VLE) and excess volumes (vE) at several temperatures in the interval (288.15 to 328.15) K for six binary systems composed of two alkyl (methyl, ethyl) propanoates and three odd carbon alkanes (C5 to C9). The mixing processes were expansive, vE > 0, with (δvE/δT)p > 0, and endothermic. The installation used to measure the iso-p VLE was improved by controlling three of the variables involved in the experimentation with a PC.

Evolutionary methods for self-organizing cooperation in peer-to-peer networks

The Peer-to-Peer network paradigm is drawing the attention of both final users and researchers for its features. P2P networks shift from the classic client-server approach to a high level of decentralization where there is no central control and all the nodes should be able not only to require services, but to provide them to other peers as well. While on one hand such high level of decentralization might lead to interesting properties like scalability and fault tolerance, on the other hand it implies many new problems to deal with. A key feature of many P2P systems is openness, meaning that everybody is potentially able to join a network with no need for subscription or payment systems. The combination of openness and lack of central control makes it feasible for a user to free-ride, that is to increase its own benefit by using services without allocating resources to satisfy other peers’ requests. One of the main goals when designing a P2P system is therefore to achieve cooperation between users. Given the nature of P2P systems based on simple local interactions of many peers having partial knowledge of the whole system, an interesting way to achieve desired properties on a system scale might consist in obtaining them as emergent properties of the many interactions occurring at local node level. Two methods are typically used to face the problem of cooperation in P2P networks: 1) engineering emergent properties when designing the protocol; 2) study the system as a game and apply Game Theory techniques, especially to find Nash Equilibria in the game and to reach them making the system stable against possible deviant behaviors. In this work we present an evolutionary framework to enforce cooperative behaviour in P2P networks that is alternative to both the methods mentioned above. Our approach is based on an evolutionary algorithm inspired by computational sociology and evolutionary game theory, consisting in having each peer periodically trying to copy another peer which is performing better. The proposed algorithms, called SLAC and SLACER, draw inspiration from tag systems originated in computational sociology, the main idea behind the algorithm consists in having low performance nodes copying high performance ones. The algorithm is run locally by every node and leads to an evolution of the network both from the topology and from the nodes’ strategy point of view. Initial tests with a simple Prisoners’ Dilemma application show how SLAC is able to bring the network to a state of high cooperation independently from the initial network conditions. Interesting results are obtained when studying the effect of cheating nodes on SLAC algorithm. In fact in some cases selfish nodes rationally exploiting the system for their own benefit can actually improve system performance from the cooperation formation point of view. The final step is to apply our results to more realistic scenarios. We put our efforts in studying and improving the BitTorrent protocol. BitTorrent was chosen not only for its popularity but because it has many points in common with SLAC and SLACER algorithms, ranging from the game theoretical inspiration (tit-for-tat-like mechanism) to the swarms topology. We discovered fairness, meant as ratio between uploaded and downloaded data, to be a weakness of the original BitTorrent protocol and we drew inspiration from the knowledge of cooperation formation and maintenance mechanism derived from the development and analysis of SLAC and SLACER, to improve fairness and tackle freeriding and cheating in BitTorrent. We produced an extension of BitTorrent called BitFair that has been evaluated through simulation and has shown the abilities of enforcing fairness and tackling free-riding and cheating nodes.

Tetrafenilciclopentadienon-derivati ed analoghi: sintesi, "self-assembly" e caratterizzazione reologica

Gels are materials that are easier to recognize than to define. For all practical purpose, a material is termed a gel if the whole volume of liquid is completely immobilized as usually tested by the ‘tube inversion’ method. Recently, supramolecular gels obtained from low molecular weight gelators (LMWGs) have attracted considerable attention in materials science since they represent a new class of smart materials sensitive to external stimuli, such as temperature, ultrasounds, light, chemical species and so on. Accordingly, during the past years a large variety of potentialities and applications of these soft materials in optoelectronics, as electronic devices, light harvesting systems and sensors, in bio-materials and in drug delivery have been reported. Spontaneous self-assembly of low molecular weight molecules is a powerful tool that allows complex supramolecular nanoscale structures to be built. The weak and non-covalent interactions such as hydrogen bonding, π–π stacking, coordination, electrostatic and van der Waals interactions are usually considered as the most important features for promoting sol-gel equilibria. However, the occurrence of gelation processes is ruled by further “external” factors, among which the temperature and the nature of the solvents that are employed are of crucial importance. For example, some gelators prefer aromatic or halogenated solvents and in some cases both the gelation temperature and the type of the solvent affect the morphologies of the final aggregation. Functionalized cyclopentadienones are fascinating systems largely employed as building blocks for the synthesis of polyphenylene derivatives. In addition, it is worth noting that structures containing π-extended conjugated chromophores with enhanced absorption properties are of current interest in the field of materials science since they can be used as “organic metals”, as semiconductors, and as emissive or absorbing layers for OLEDs or photovoltaics. The possibility to decorate the framework of such structures prompted us to study the synthesis of new hydroxy propargyl arylcyclopentadienone derivatives. Considering the ability of such systems to give π–π stacking interactions, the introduction on a polyaromatic structure of polar substituents able to generate hydrogen bonding could open the possibility to form gels, although any gelation properties has been never observed for these extensively studied systems. we have synthesized a new class of 3,4-bis (4-(3-hydroxy- propynyl) phenyl) -2, 5-diphenylcyclopentadienone derivatives, one of which (1a) proved to be, for the first time, a powerful organogelator. The experimental results indicated that the hydroxydimethylalkynyl substituents are fundamental to guarantee the gelation properties of the tetraarylcyclopentadienone unit. Combining the results of FT-IR, 1H NMR, UV-vis and fluorescence emission spectra, we believe that H-bonding and π–π interactions are the driving forces played for the gel formation. The importance of soft materials lies on their ability to respond to external stimuli, that can be also of chemical nature. In particular, high attention has been recently devoted to anion responsive properties of gels. Therefore the behaviour of organogels of 1a in toluene, ACN and MeNO2 towards the addition of 1 equivalent of various tetrabutylammonium salts were investigated. The rheological properties of gels in toluene, ACN and MeNO2 with and without the addition of Bu4N+X- salts were measured. In addition a qualitative analysis on cation recognition was performed. Finally the nature of the cyclic core of the gelator was changed in order to verify how the carbonyl group was essential to gel solvents. Until now, 4,5-diarylimidazoles have been synthesized.

Three Essays in Spatial Economics

This work contributes to the field of spatial economics by embracing three distinct modelling approaches, belonging to different strands of the theoretical literature. In the first chapter I present a theoretical model in which the changes in urban system’s degree of functional specialisation are linked to (i) firms’ organisational choices and firms’ location decisions. The interplay between firms’ internal communication/managing costs (between headquarters and production plants) and the cost of communicating with distant business services providers leads the transition process from an “integrated” urban system where each city hosts every different functions to a “functionally specialised” urban system where each city is either a primary business center (hosting advanced business services providers, a secondary business center or a pure manufacturing city and all this city-types coexist in equilibrium.The second chapter investigates the impact of free trade on welfare in a two-country world modelled as an international Hotelling duopoly with quadratic transport costs and asymmetric countries, where a negative environmental externality is associated with the consumption of the good produced in the smaller country. Countries’ relative sizes as well as the intensity of negative environmental externality affect potential welfare gains of trade liberalisation. The third chapter focuses on the paradox, by which, contrary to theoretical predictions, empirical evidence shows that a decrease in international transport costs causes an increase in foreign direct investments (FDIs). Here we propose an explanation to this apparent puzzle by exploiting an approach which delivers a continuum of Bertrand- Nash equilibria ranging above marginal cost pricing. In our setting, two Bertrand firms, supplying a homogeneous good with a convex cost function, enter the market of a foreign country. We show that allowing for a softer price competition may indeed more than offset the standard effect generated by a decrease in trade costs, thereby restoring FDI incentives.

Crystal phases and glassy dynamics in monodisperse hard ellipsoids

We have performed Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations of suspensions of monodisperse, hard ellipsoids of revolution. Hard-particle models play a key role in statistical mechanics. They are conceptually and computationally simple, and they offer insight into systems in which particle shape is important, including atomic, molecular, colloidal, and granular systems. In the high density phase diagram of prolate hard ellipsoids we have found a new crystal, which is more stable than the stretched FCC structure proposed previously . The new phase, SM2, has a simple monoclinic unit cell containing a basis of two ellipsoids with unequal orientations. The angle of inclination is very soft for length-to-width (aspect) ratio l/w=3, while the other angles are not. A symmetric state of the unit cell exists, related to the densest-known packings of ellipsoids; it is not always the stable one. Our results remove the stretched FCC structure for aspect ratio l/w=3 from the phase diagram of hard, uni-axial ellipsoids. We provide evidence that this holds between aspect ratios 3 and 6, and possibly beyond. Finally, ellipsoids in SM2 at l/w=1.55 exhibit end-over-end flipping, warranting studies of the cross-over to where this dynamics is not possible. Secondly, we studied the dynamics of nearly spherical ellipsoids. In equilibrium, they show a first-order transition from an isotropic phase to a rotator phase, where positions are crystalline but orientations are free. When over-compressing the isotropic phase into the rotator regime, we observed super-Arrhenius slowing down of diffusion and relaxation, and signatures of the cage effect. These features of glassy dynamics are sufficiently strong that asymptotic scaling laws of the Mode-Coupling Theory of the glass transition (MCT) could be tested, and were found to apply. We found strong coupling of positional and orientational degrees of freedom, leading to a common value for the MCT glass-transition volume fraction. Flipping modes were not slowed down significantly. We demonstrated that the results are independent of simulation method, as predicted by MCT. Further, we determined that even intra-cage motion is cooperative. We confirmed the presence of dynamical heterogeneities associated with the cage effect. The transit between cages was seen to occur on short time scales, compared to the time spent in cages; but the transit was shown not to involve displacements distinguishable in character from intra-cage motion. The presence of glassy dynamics was predicted by molecular MCT (MMCT). However, as MMCT disregards crystallization, a test by simulation was required. Glassy dynamics is unusual in monodisperse systems. Crystallization typically intervenes unless polydispersity, network-forming bonds or other asymmetries are introduced. We argue that particle anisometry acts as a sufficient source of disorder to prevent crystallization. This sheds new light on the question of which ingredients are required for glass formation.

Non-Covalent Interaction: Revealed by Rotational Spectroscopy

The pulsed jet Fourier transform microwave spectroscopy have been applied to several molecular complexes involving H2O, freons, methane, carboxylic acids, and rare gas. The obtained results showcase the suitability of this technique for studying the intermolecular interactions. The rotational spectra of three water adducts of halogenated organic molecules, i.e. chlorotrifluoroethylene, isoflurane and alfa,alfa,alfa,-trifluoroanisole, have been investigated. It has been found that, the halogenation of the partner molecules definitely changes the way in which water will link to the partner molecule. Quadrupole hyperfine structures and/or the tunneling splittings have been observed in the rotational spectra of difluoromethane-dichloromethane, chlorotrifluorometane-fluoromethane, difluoromethane-formaldehyde and trifluoromethane-benzene. These features have been useful to describe their intermolecular interactions (weak hydrogen bonds or halogen bonds), and to size the potential energy surfaces of their internal motions. The rotational spectrum of pyridine-methane pointed out that methane prefers to locate above the ring and link to pyridine through a C-H•••π weak hydrogen bond, rather than the C-H•••n interaction. This behavior, typical of complexes of pyridine with rare gases, suggests classifying CH4, in relation to its ability to form molecular complexes with aromatic molecules, as a pseudo rare gas. The conformational equilibria of three bi-molecules of carboxylic acids, acrylic acid-trifluoroacetic acid, difluoroacetic acid-formic acid and acrylic acid-fluoroacetic acid have been studied. The increase of the hydrogen bond length upon H→D isotopic substitution (Ubbelohde effect) has been deduced from the elongation of the carboxylic carbons C•••C distance. The van der Waals complex tetrahydrofuran-krypton shows that the systematic doubling of the rotational lines has been attributed to the residual pseudo-rotation of tetrahydrofuran in the complex, based on the values of the Coriolis coupling constants, and on the type (mu_b) of the interstate transitions.

Granulite facies metamorphism and partial melting processes in the Ivrea Zone, Northern Italy

The Ivrea Zone in northern Italy has been the focus of numerous petrological, geochemical and structural studies. It is commonly inferred to represent an almost complete section through the mid to lower continental crust, in which metamorphism and partial melting of the abundant metapelites was the result of magmatic underplating by a large volume of mantle-derived magma. This study concerns amphibolite and granulite facies metamorphism in the Ivrea Zone with focus on metapelites and metapsammites/metagreywackes from Val Strona di Omegna and metapelites from Val Sesia and Val Strona di Postua, with the aim to better constrain their metamorphic evolution as well as their pressure and temperature conditions via phase equilibria modelling.rnrnIn Val Strona di Omegna, the metapelites show a structural and mineralogical change from mica-schists with the common assemblage bi-mu-sill-pl-q-ilm ± liq at the lowest grades, through metatexitic migmatites (g-sill-bi-ksp-pl-q-ilm-liq) at intermediate grades, to complex diatexitic migmatites (g-sill-ru-bi-ksp-pl-q-ilm-liq) at the highest grades. Within this section several mappable isograds occur, including the first appearance of K-feldspar in the metapelites, the first appearance of orthopyroxene in the metabasites and the disappearance of prograde biotite from the metapelites. The inferred onset of partial melting in the metapelites occurs around Massiola. The prograde suprasolidus evolution of the metapelites is consistent with melting via the breakdown of first muscovite then biotite. Maximum modelled melt fractions of 30–40 % are predicted at the highest grade. The regional metamorphic field gradient in Val Strona di Omegna is constrained to range from conditions of 3.5–6.5 kbar at T = 650–730 °C to P > 9 kbar at T > 900 °C. The peak P–T estimates, particularly for granulite facies conditions, are significantly higher (around 100 °C) than those of most previous studies. In Val Sesia and Val Strona di Postua to the south the exposure is more restricted. P–T estimates for the metapelites are 750–850 °C and 5–6.5 kbar in Val Sesia and approximately 800–900 °C and 5.5–7 kbar in Val Strona di Postua. These results show similar temperatures but lower pressure than metapelites in Val Strona di Omegna. Metapelites in Val Sesia in contact with the Mafic Complex exhibit a metatexitic structure, while in Val Strona di Postua diatexitic structures occur. Further, metapelites at the contact with the Mafic Complex contain cordierite (± spinel) that overprint the regional metamorphic assemblages and are interpreted to have formed during contact metamorphism related to intrusion of the Mafic Complex. The lower pressures in the high-grade rocks in Val Sesia and Val Strona di Postua are consistent with some decompression from the regional metamorphic peak prior to the intrusion of the Mafic Complex, suggesting the rocks followed a clockwise P–T path. In contrast, the metapelites in Val Strona di Omegna, especially in the granulite facies, do not contain any cordierite or any evidence for a contact metamorphic overprint. The extrapolated granulite facies mineral isograds are cut by the rocks of the Mafic Complex to the south. Therefore, the Mafic Complex cannot have caused the regional metamorphism and it is unlikely that the Mafic Complex occurs in Val Strona di Omegna.

Forward modelling of petrological crust-forming processes on the early Earth

Tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) gneisses form up to two-thirds of the preserved Archean continental crust and there is considerable debate regarding the primary magmatic processes of the generation of these rocks. The popular theories indicate that these rocks were formed by partial melting of basaltic oceanic crust which was previously metamorphosed to garnet-amphibolite and/or eclogite facies conditions either at the base of thick oceanic crust or by subduction processes.rnThis study investigates a new aspect regarding the source rock for Archean continental crust which is inferred to have had a bulk compostion richer in magnesium (picrite) than present-day basaltic oceanic crust. This difference is supposed to originate from a higher geothermal gradient in the early Archean which may have induced higher degrees of partial melting in the mantle, which resulted in a thicker and more magnesian oceanic crust. rnThe methods used to investigate the role of a more MgO-rich source rock in the formation of TTG-like melts in the context of this new approach are mineral equilibria calculations with the software THERMOCALC and high-pressure experiments conducted from 10–20 kbar and 900–1100 °C, both combined in a forward modelling approach. Initially, P–T pseudosections for natural rock compositions with increasing MgO contents were calculated in the system NCFMASHTO (Na2O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O–TiO2) to ascertain the metamorphic products from rocks with increasing MgO contents from a MORB up to a komatiite. A small number of previous experiments on komatiites showed the development of pyroxenite instead of eclogite and garnet-amphibolite during metamorphism and established that melts of these pyroxenites are of basaltic composition, thus again building oceanic crust instead of continental crust.rnThe P–T pseudosections calculated represent a continuous development of their metamorphic products from amphibolites and eclogites towards pyroxenites. On the basis of these calculations and the changes within the range of compositions, three picritic Models of Archean Oceanic Crust (MAOC) were established with different MgO contents (11, 13 and 15 wt%) ranging between basalt and komatiite. The thermodynamic modelling for MAOC 11, 13 and 15 at supersolidus conditions is imprecise since no appropriate melt model for metabasic rocks is currently available and the melt model for metapelitic rocks resulted in unsatisfactory calculations. The partially molten region is therfore covered by high-pressure experiments. The results of the experiments show a transition from predominantly tonalitic melts in MAOC 11 to basaltic melts in MAOC 15 and a solidus moving towards higher temperatures with increasing magnesium in the bulk composition. Tonalitic melts were generated in MAOC 11 and 13 at pressures up to 12.5 kbar in the presence of garnet, clinopyroxene, plagioclase plus/minus quartz (plus/minus orthopyroxene in the presence of quartz and at lower pressures) in the absence of amphibole but it could not be explicitly indicated whether the tonalitic melts coexisting with an eclogitic residue and rutile at 20 kbar do belong to the Archean TTG suite. Basaltic melts were generated predominantly in the presence of granulite facies residues such as amphibole plus/minus garnet, plagioclase, orthopyroxene that lack quartz in all MAOC compositions at pressures up to 15 kbar. rnThe tonalitic melts generated in MAOC 11 and 13 indicate that thicker oceanic crust with more magnesium than that of a modern basalt is also a viable source for the generation of TTG-like melts and therefore continental crust in the Archean. The experimental results are related to different geologic settings as a function of pressure. The favoured setting for the generation of early TTG-like melts at 15 kbar is the base of an oceanic crust thicker than existing today or by melting of slabs in shallow subduction zones, both without interaction of tonalic melts with the mantle. Tonalitic melts at 20 kbar may have been generated below the plagioclase stability by slab melting in deeper subduction zones that have developed with time during the progressive cooling of the Earth, but it is unlikely that those melts reached lower pressure levels without further mantle interaction.rn

Essays in Health Economics

In the first chapter we develop a theoretical model investigating food consumption and body weight with a novel assumption regarding human caloric expenditure (i.e. metabolism), in order to investigate why individuals can be rationally trapped in an excessive weight equilibrium and why they struggle to lose weight even when offered incentives for weight-loss. This assumption allows the theoretical model to have multiple equilibria and to provide an explanation for why losing weight is so difficult even in the presence of incentives, without relying on rational addiction, time-inconsistency preferences or bounded rationality. In addition to this result we are able to characterize under which circumstances a temporary incentive can create a persistent weight loss. In the second chapter we investigate the possible contributions that social norms and peer effects had on the spread of obesity. In recent literature peer effects and social norms have been characterized as important pathways for the biological and behavioral spread of body weight, along with decreased food prices and physical activity. We add to this literature by proposing a novel concept of social norm related to what we define as social distortion in weight perception. The theoretical model shows that, in equilibrium, the effect of an increase in peers' weight on i's weight is unrelated to health concerns while it is mainly associated with social concerns. Using regional data from England we prove that such social component is significant in influencing individual weight. In the last chapter we investigate the relationship between body weight and employment probability. Using a semi-parametric regression we show that men and women employment probability do not follow a linear relationship with body mass index (BMI) but rather an inverted U-shaped one, peaking at a BMI way over the clinical threshold for overweight.

Nonclassical crystallization of bivalent metal carbonates

Nichtklassische Kristallisationen tragen heutzutage einen entscheidenden Anteil zum Verständnis von Biomineralisationsprozessen und anspruchsvoller Morphogenese in vitro bei. Die vorliegende Dissertation stellt drei neue Vertreter nichtklassischer Kristallisationen vor, die während der Fällung von Calciumcarbonat und verwandten zweiwertigen Carbonaten auftreten.rn(a) Zum ersten Male wird eine Symmetrie-brechende Phasenselektion von Calciumcarbonat beschrieben, die auf einem subtilen Wechselspiel von verketteten Gleichgewichten basiert und deren Ursache letztendlich der paritätsverletzenden Energiedifferenz (PVED) zugeschrieben wird. rn(b) Die interkristalline Minoritätskomponente eines Mesokristalles, seien es z.B. eingeschlossenes Proteine oder polymere Additive, erfahren eine Morphogenese im Sinne einer Formpressung. Dieser bislang wenig beachtete Effekt in Mesokristallen wurde zur Herstellung von Nanoröhren eingesetzt, die aus verschiedensten Materialien bestehen können (z.B. Calciumcarbonat oder Cadmiumsulfid).rn(c) Das Hauptaugenmerk dieser Dissertation liegt auf dem Auftreten eines flüssig-amorphen Intermediates während der Metallcarbonat-Präzipitation. Durch diffusionskontrollierte und kontaktfreie Versuchsführung konnte die Existenz eines solchen nichtklassischen, flüssigen Intermediates, welches der kristallinen Phase bei neutralen pH vorangeht, sicher nachgewiesen werden. rn

Accretion of Mass and Angular Momentum onto The Discs of Spiral Galaxies

In this Thesis, we study the accretion of mass and angular momentum onto the disc of spiral galaxies from a global and a local perspective and comparing theory predictions with several observational data. First, we propose a method to measure the specific mass and radial growth rates of stellar discs, based on their star formation rate density profiles and we apply it to a sample of nearby spiral galaxies. We find a positive radial growth rate for almost all galaxies in our sample. Our galaxies grow in size, on average, at one third of the rate at which they grow in mass. Our results are in agreement with theoretical expectations if known scaling relations of disc galaxies are not evolving with time. We also propose a novel method to reconstruct accretion profiles and the local angular momentum of the accreting material from the observed structural and chemical properties of spiral galaxies. Applied to the Milky Way and to one external galaxy, our analysis indicates that accretion occurs at relatively large radii and has a local deficit of angular momentum with respect to the disc. Finally, we show how structure and kinematics of hot gaseous coronae, which are believed to be the source of mass and angular momentum of massive spiral galaxies, can be reconstructed from their angular momentum and entropy distributions. We find that isothermal models with cosmologically motivated angular momentum distributions are compatible with several independent observational constraints. We also consider more complex baroclinic equilibria: we describe a new parametrization for these states, a new self-similar family of solution and a method for reconstructing structure and kinematics from the joint angular momentum/entropy distribution.

A Simple Visual Demonstration of Phase Diagram Concepts for an Introductory Materials Science Course Using Colored Solvents

A simple and effective demonstration to help students comprehend phase diagrams and understand phase equilibria and transformations is created using common chemical solvents available in the laboratory. Common misconceptions surrounding phase diagram operations, such as components versus phases, reversibility of phase transformations, and the lever rule are addressed. Three different binary liquid mixtures of varying compatibility create contrastive phase equilibrium cases, where colorful dyes selectively dissolved in each of corresponding phases allow for quick and unambiguous perceptions of solubility limit and phase transformations. Direct feedback and test scores from a group of students show evidence of the effectiveness of the visual and active teaching tool.

Is the Atlantic subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models?

The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is one of the main drivers of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Here we analyze its dynamics in pre-industrial control simulations of 19 different comprehensive coupled climate models. The analysis is based on a recently proposed description of the SPG dynamics that found the circulation to be potentially bistable due to a positive feedback mechanism including salt transport and enhanced deep convection in the SPG center. We employ a statistical method to identify multiple equilibria in time series that are subject to strong noise and analyze composite fields to assess whether the bistability results from the hypothesized feedback mechanism. Because noise dominates the time series in most models, multiple circulation modes can unambiguously be detected in only six models. Four of these six models confirm that the intensification is caused by the positive feedback mechanism.