What can Arab countries learn from the post-communist transition? MEDPRO Commentary, 31 May 2012

More than a year has passed since the start of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the ongoing unrest in Syria, the process is far from over. Meanwhile, nations that have already rid themselves of their authoritarian rulers (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), must decide where to go now and how to manage their political and economic transitions. To a lesser extent, a similar challenge is being faced by those constitutional monarchies (such as Morocco or Jordan) that accelerated reforms in order to avoid political destabilisation.   Many politicians and experts, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, suggest that their Arab colleagues should learn from the post‐communist transition of the early 1990s. However, while learning from others’ experience is always a useful exercise, the geopolitical and socio‐economic context of the Arab revolution appears to be different, in many respects, from that of former Soviet bloc countries more than twenty years ago.

The Danish Flexicurity Model - a Lesson for the US? ACES Working Paper No. 2, May 2007

Within recent years, increasing international competition has caused an increase in job transitions worldwide. Many countries find it difficult to manage these transitions in a way that ensures a match between labour and demand. One of the countries that seem to manage the transitions in a successful way is Denmark, where unemployment has been dropping dramatically over the last decade without a drop in job quality. This success is ascribed the so-called Danish flexicurity model, where an easy access to hiring and firing employees (flexibility) is combined with extensive active and passive labour market policies (security). The Danish results have gained interest not only among other European countries, where unemployment rates remain high, but also in the US, where job loss is often related to lower job quality. It has, however, been subject to much debate both in Europe and in the US, whether or not countries with distinctively different political-economic settings can learn from one another. Some have argued that cultural differences impose barriers to successful policy transfer, whereas others see it as a perfectly rational calculus to introduce 'best practices' from elsewhere. This paper presents a third strategy. Recent literature on policy transfer suggests that successful cross national policy transfer is possible, even across the Atlantic, but that one must be cautious in choosing the form, content and level of the learning process. By analysing and comparing the labour market policies and their settings in Denmark and the US in detail, this paper addresses the question, what and how the US can learn from the Danish model. Where the US and Denmark share a high degree of flexibility, they differ significantly on the level of security. This also means that the Danish budget for active and passive labour market policies is significantly higher than the American, and it seems unlikely that political support for the introduction of Danish levels of security in the US can be established. However, the paper concludes that there is a learning potential between the US and Demnark in the different local level efficiency of the money already spent. A major reason for the Danish success has been the introduction of tailor made initiatives to the single displaced worker and a stronger coordination between local level actors. Both of which are issues, where a lack of efficiency in the implementation of American active labour market policies has been reported.

Renewables: The great uncertainty of the EU energy strategy. Egmont Paper No. 71, November 2014

Summary. For more than two decades, the development of renewable energy sources (RES) has been an important aim of EU energy policy. It accelerated with the adoption of a 1997 White Paper and the setting a decade later of a 20% renewable energy target, to be reached by 2020. The EU counts on renewable energy for multiple purposes: to diversify its energy supply; to increase its security of supply; and to create new industries, jobs, economic growth and export opportunities, while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many expectations rest on its development. Fossil fuels have been critical to the development of industrial nations, including EU Member States, which are now deeply reliant upon coal, oil and gas for nearly every aspect of their existence. Faced with some hard truths, however, the Member States have begun to shelve fossil fuel. These hard truths are as follows: firstly, fossil fuels are a finite resource, sometimes difficult to extract. This means that, at some point, fossil fuels are going to be more difficult to access in Europe or too expensive to use.1 The problem is that you cannot just stop using fossil fuels when they become too expensive; the existing infrastructure is profoundly reliant on fossil fuels. It is thus almost normal that a fierce resistance to change exists. Secondly, fossil fuels contribute to climate change. They emit GHG, which contribute greatly to climate change. As a consequence, their use needs to be drastically reduced. Thirdly, Member States are currently suffering a decline in their own fossil fuel production. This increases their dependence on increasingly costly fossil fuel imports from increasingly unstable countries. This problem is compounded by global developments: the growing share of emerging economies in global energy demand (in particular China and India but also the Middle East) and the development of unconventional oil and gas production in the United States. All these elements endanger the competitiveness of Member States’ economies and their security of supply. Therefore, new indigenous sources of energy and a diversification of energy suppliers and routes to convey energy need to be found. To solve all these challenges, in 2008 the EU put in place a strategy based on three objectives: sustainability (reduction of GHG), competitiveness and security of supply. The adoption of a renewable energy policy was considered essential for reaching these three strategic objectives. The adoption of the 20% renewable energy target has undeniably had a positive effect in the EU on the growth in renewables, with the result that renewable energy sources are steadily increasing their presence in the EU energy mix. They are now, it can be said, an integral part of the EU energy system. However, the necessity of reaching this 20% renewable energy target in 2020, combined with other circumstances, has also engendered in many Member States a certain number of difficulties, creating uncertainties for investors and postponing benefits for consumers. The electricity sector is the clearest example of this downside. Subsidies have become extremely abundant and vary from one Member State to another, compromising both fair competition and single market. Networks encountered many difficulties to develop and adapt. With technological progress these subsidies have also become quite excessive. The growing impact of renewable electricity fluctuations has made some traditional power plants unprofitable and created disincentives for new investments. The EU does clearly need to reassess its strategy. If it repeats the 2008 measures it will risk to provoke increased instability and costs.

How mobile is tech talent? A case study of IT professionals based on data from LinkedIn. CEPS Special Report No. 140, July 2016

This study aims to provide independent and in-depth insights into how IT professionals move from one region to another within Europe and beyond. This study was carried out by Mikkel Barslund, Research Fellow, and Matthias Busse, Researcher in the Economic Policy research unit at CEPS. The work was commissioned by the business networking website LinkedIn, whose data analysts kindly provided the data used in this study, aggregated by region and in relative and anonymised terms. The authors are solely responsible for the findings and opinions expressed in this study. CEPS is an independent policy research institute in Brussels, whose mission is to produce sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. The views expressed in this study are solely those of the authors and should not be attributed to CEPS or to any other institution with which they are associated or to the business networking website LinkedIn.

ESTOUT: Stata module to export estimation results from estimates table

estout produces a table of regression results from one or several models for use with spreadsheets, LaTeX, HTML, or a word-processor table. eststo stores a quick copy of the active estimation results for later tabulation. esttab is a wrapper for estout. It displays a pretty looking publication-style regression table without much typing. estadd adds additional results to the e()-returns for one or several models previously fitted and stored. This package subsumes the previously circulated esto, esta, estadd, and estadd_plus. An earlier version of estout is available as estout1.

Essays on coordination problems in economics

No estudo da economia, há diversas situações em que a propensão de um indivíduo a tomar determinada ação é crescente na quantidade de outras pessoas que este indivíduo acredita que tomarão a mesma ação. Esse tipo de complementaridade estratégica geralmente leva à existência de múltiplos equilíbrios. Além disso, o resultado atingido pelas decisões decentralizadas dos agentes pode ser ineficiente, deixando espaço para intervenções de política econômica. Esta tese estuda diferentes ambientes em que a coordenação entre indivíduos é importante. O primeiro capítulo analisa como a manipulação de informação e a divulgação de informação afetam a coordenação entre investidores e o bem-estar em um modelo de corridas bancárias. No modelo, há uma autoridade reguladora que não pode se comprometer a revelar a verdadeira situação do setor bancário. O regulador observa informações idiossincráticas dos bancos (através de um stress test, por exemplo) e escolhe se revela essa informação para o público ou se divulga somente um relatório agregado sobre a saúde do sistema financeiro como um todo. O relatório agregado pode ser distorcido a um custo – um custo mais elevado significa maior credibilidade do regulador. Os investidores estão cientes dos incentivos do regulador a esconder más notícias do mercado, mas a manipulação de informação pode, ainda assim, ser efetiva. Se a credibilidade do regulador não for muito baixa, a política de divulgação de informação é estado-contingente, e existe sempre um conjunto de estados em que há manipulação de informação em equilíbrio. Se a credibilidade for suficientemente baixa, porém, o regulador opta por transparência total dos resultados banco-específicos, caso em que somente os bancos mais sólidos sobrevivem. Uma política de opacidade levaria a uma crise bancária sistêmica, independentemente do estado. O nível de credibilidade que maximiza o bem-estar agregado do ponto de vista ex ante é interior. O segundo e o terceiro capítulos estudam problemas de coordenação dinâmicos. O segundo capítulo analisa o bem-estar em um ambiente em que agentes recebem oportunidades aleatórias para migrar entre duas redes. Os resultados mostram que sempre que a rede de pior qualidade (intrínseca) prevalece, isto é eficiente. Na verdade, um planejador central estaria ainda mais inclinado a escolher a rede de pior qualidade. Em equilíbrio, pode haver mudanças ineficientes que ampliem a rede de qualidade superior. Quando indivíduos escolhem entre dois padrões ou redes com níveis de qualidade diferentes, se todos os indivíduos fizessem escolhas simultâneas, a solução eficiente seria que todos adotassem a rede de melhor qualidade. No entanto, quando há fricções e os agentes tomam decisões escalonadas, a solução eficiente difere ix do senso comum. O terceiro capítulo analisa um problema de coordenação dinâmico com decisões escalonadas em que os agentes são heterogêneos ex ante. No modelo, existe um único equilíbrio, caracterizado por thresholds que determinam as escolhas para cada tipo de agente. Apesar da heterogeneidade nos payoffs, há bastante conformidade nas ações individuais em equilíbrio. Os thresholds de diferentes tipos de agentes coincidem parcialmente contanto que exista um conjunto de crenças arbitrário que justifique esta conformidade. No entanto, as estratégias de equilíbrio de diferentes tipos nunca coincidem totalmente. Além disso, a conformidade não é ineficiente. A solução eficiente apresentaria estratégias ainda mais similares para tipos distintos em comparação com o equilíbrio decentralizado.

Paleotemperatures and paleosalinities from the Celtic Margin (Bay of Biscay)

During the late Quaternary, both external and internal forcings have driven major climatic shifts from glacial to interglacial conditions. Nonlinear climatic steps characterized the transitions leading to these extrema, with intermediate excursions particularly well xpressed in the dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Here we document the impact of these dynamics on the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, focussing on the 35-10 ka interval. Sea-surface salinities have been reconstructed quantitatively based on two independent methods from core MD95-2002, recovered from the northern Bay of Biscay adjacent to the axis of the Manche paleoriver outlet and thus in connection with proximal European ice sheets and glaciers. Quantitative reconstructions deriving from dinocyst and planktonic foraminiferal analyses have been combined within a robust chronology to assess the amplitude and timing of hydrological changes in this region. Our study evidences strong pulsed freshwater discharges which may have impacted the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

(Table 1) Composition of volcanic glasses from the East Scotia Ridge

New U-series isotope data for lavas from the East Scotia backarc spreading center span a large range in (230Th/232Th) and (238U/232Th). Most of the backarc lavas have (238U/230Th) < 1, similar to the composition of mid-oceanic-ridge basalts (MORB). Lavas from two segments have (238U/230Th) > 1 and are enriched in fluid-mobile elements, implying a recent addition of a U-rich slab-derived component. The data from one segment suggest an influence from an aqueous fluid from altered MORB, whereas samples from the other slab-influenced segment show addition of a sediment melt. The slab-influenced samples form a distinct trend in the equiline diagram between aqueous fluid and sediment melt that is suggested to be a mixing line rather than an isochron.

Pollen profiles from a Late Palaeolithic site in the community of Bad Buchau-Kappel, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany

Excavations were carried out in a Late Palaeolithic site in the community of Bad Buchau-Kappel between 2003 and 2007. Archaeological investigations covered a total of more than 200 m**2. This site is the product of what likely were multiple occupations that occurred during the Late Glacial on the Federsee shore in this location. The site is situated on a mineral ridge that projected into the former Late Glacial lake Federsee. This beach ridge consists of deposits of fine to coarse gravel and sand and was surrounded by open water, except for a connection to the solid shore on the south. A lagoon lay between the hook-shaped ridge and the shore of the Federsee. This exposed location provided optimal access to the water of the lake. In addition, the small lagoon may have served as a natural harbor for landing boats or canoes. Sedimentological and palynological investigations document the dynamic history of the location between 14,500 and 11,600 years before present (cal BP). Evidence of the deposition of sands, gravels and muds since the Bølling Interstadial is provided by stratigraphic and palynological analyses. The major occupation occurred in the second half of the Younger Dryas period. Most of the finds were located on or in the sediments of the ridge; fewer finds occurred in the surrounding mud, which was also deposited during the Younger Dryas. Direct dates on some bone fragments, however, demonstrate that intermittent sporadic occupations also took place during the two millennia of the Meiendorf, Bølling, and Allerød Interstadials. These bones were reworked during the Younger Dryas and redeposited in the mud. A 14C date from one bone of 11,600 years ago (cal BP) places the Late Palaeolithic occupation of the ridge at the very end of the Younger Dryas, which is in agreement with stratigraphic observations. Stone artifacts, numbering 3,281, comprise the majority of finds from the site. These include typical artifacts of the Late Palaeolithic, such as backed points, short scrapers, and small burins. There are no bipointes or Malaurie-Points, which is in accord with the absolute date of the occupation. A majority of the artifacts are made from a brown chert that is obtainable a few kilometers north of the site in sediments of the Graupensandrinne. Other raw materials include red and green radiolarite that occur in the fluvioglacial gravels of Oberschwaben, as well as quartzite and lydite. The only non-local material present is a few artifacts of tabular chert from the region near Kelheim in Bavaria. A unique find consists of two fragments of a double-barbed harpoon made of red deer antler, which was found in the Younger Dryas mud. It is likely, but not certain, that this find belongs to the same assemblage as the numerous stone artifacts. Although not numerous, animal bones were also found in the excavations. Most of them lay in sediments of the Younger Dryas, but several 14C dates place some of these bones in earlier periods, including the Meiendorf, Bølling, and Allerød Interstadials. These bones were reworked by water and redeposited in mud sediments during the Younger Dryas. As a result, it is difficult to attribute individual bones to particular chronological positions without exact dates. Species that could be identified include wild horse (Equus spec.), moose or elk (Alces alces), red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), aurochs or bison (Bos spec.), wild boar (Sus scrofa), as well as birds and fish, including pike (Esox Lucius).

Late Eocene to Recent deep-sea benthic foraminifera from the Central equatorial Pacific Ocean

Benthic foraminifers were studied in upper Eocene to Recent core-catcher samples from DSDP Sites 573, 574, and 575. The sites are on a north-south transect from the equator to about 05°N at about 133°W, water depth 4300 to 4600 m. At Site 574 additional samples were used to study the Eocene/Oligocene boundary in detail. About 200 specimens were counted per sample. The fauna is highly diverse (about 50 to 70 species per sample) and is of low dominance. The diversity is not related to age or sub-bottom depth. Many species are cosmopolitan and probably have wide environmental tolerances. Fluctuations in frequency of some taxa (e.g., Nuttallides umbonifera, Epistominella exigua, and Uvigerina spp.) cannot be correlated from one site to another. Several common species (e.g. Oridorsalis umbonatus and Globocassidulina subglobosa) range from late Eocene to Recent. First and last appearances are generally difficult to define precisely because many species are rare. For some species these datums differ from one site to another, but several datum levels are within 1 m.y. at all sites. First and last appearances are most numerous in two intervals, the late Eocene to early Oligocene (about 32 to 37 Ma) and the early to middle Miocene (about 13 to 18.5 Ma). Isotopic events occur within each of these periods of benthic faunal change, but the isotopic events have a shorter duration and start after the initiation of the changes in the fauna. Changes in deep-sea benthic faunal composition are not directly related to short-term oceanographic changes as expressed in isotopic records.

Beyond the Bauhaus : Cultural Modernity in Breslau, 1918-1933 /

The Breslau arts scene during the Weimar period was one of the most vibrant in all of Germany, yet it has disappeared from memory and historiography. Breslau was a key center for innovative artistic production during the Weimar Republic; recovery of its history will shed new light on German cultural dynamics in the 1920s. Such a study has art historical significance because of the incredible extent of innovation that occurred in almost every intellectual field, advances that formed the basis for aesthetic modernism internationally and continue to affect the course of visual art and architecture today. Architecture education, just one example in many, is still largely based on a combination of the Bauhaus model from the 1920s and the model developed at the Breslau Academy of Fine and Applied Art. The exploratory attitude encouraged in Weimar era arts endeavors, as opposed to the conformism of academic art, is still a core value promoted in contemporary art and architecture circles. Given the long-lasting influence of Weimar culture on modernism one would expect to find a spate of studies examining every aspect of its cultural production, but this is not the case. Recent scholarship is almost exclusively focused on Berlin and the Dessau Bauhaus. Although both interests are understandable, the creative explosion was not confined to these cities but was part of a larger cultural ethos that extended into many of the smaller regional centers. The Expressionist associations the Blaue Reiter in Munich and Brücke in Dresden are two well-known examples. Equally, innovation was not confined to a few monumental projects like the Stuttgart Weissenhofsiedlung but part of a broader national cultural ethos. The dispersion of modernism occurred partly because of the political history of Germany as a loosely joined confederation of small city states and principalities that had strong individual cultural identities before unification in 1871 but also because of the German propensity to value and take intense pride in the Heimat, understood both as the hometown and the region. Heimatliebe translated into generous support for cultural institutions in outlying cities. Host to a roster of internationally acclaimed artists and architects, major collectors, arts organizations, museums, presses, galleries, and one of the premier German arts academies of the day, Breslau boasted a thriving modern arts scene until 1933 when the Nazis began their assault on so-called "degenerate" art. This book charts the cultural production of Breslau-based artists, architects, art collectors, urban designers, and arts educators, who were especially interesting because they operated in the space between the margins of Weimar-era cultural debates. Rather than accepting the radical position of the German avant-garde or the reactionary position of German conservatives, many Breslauers sought a middle ground. It is the first book in English to address this history and presents the history in a manner unique to any studies currently on the market. 'Beyond the Bauhaus' explores the polyvalent and contradictory nature of cultural production in Breslau in order to expand the cultural and geographic scope of Weimar history; the book asserts a reciprocal dimension to the relationship between regional culture and national culture, between centers like Breslau and the capital Berlin. With major international figures like the painters Otto Mueller and Oskar Moll, architects Hans Scharoun and Adolf Rading, urban planners Max Berg and Ernst May, collectors Ismar Littmann and Max Silberberg, and an art academy that by 1929 was considered the best in Germany, Breslau clearly had significance to narratives of Weimar cultural production. 'Beyond the Bauhaus' contributes the history of German culture during the Weimar Republic. It belongs alongside histories of art, architecture, urban design, exhibition, collecting, and culture; histories of the Bauhaus; histories of arts education more broadly; and German history. The readership would include those interested in German history; German art, architecture, urban design, planning, collecting, and exhibition history; in the avant-garde; the development of arts academies and arts pedagogy; and the history of Breslau and Silesia.

Methods to Control for Bias in Observational Studies

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Reflective practice at the intersection of the arts, science, and engineering: Ethnographic beginnings of a youth program in transition

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Long-term stasis in ecological assemblages: Evidence from the fossil record

Studies of plant and animal assemblages from both the terrestrial and the marine fossil records reveal persistence for extensive periods of geological time, sometimes millions of years. Persistence does not require lack of change or the absence of variation from one occurrence of the assemblage to the next in geological time. It does, however, imply that assemblage composition is bounded and that variation occurs within those bounds. The principal cause for these patterns appears to be species-, and perhaps clade-level, environmental fidelity that results in long-term tracking of physical conditions. Other factors that influence persistent recurrence of assemblages are historical, biogeographic effects, the law of large numbers, niche differentiation, and biotic interactions. Much research needs to be done in this area, and greater uniformity is needed in the approaches to studying the problem. However, great potential also exists for enhanced interaction between paleoecology and neoecology in understanding spatiotemporal complexity of ecological dynamics.

Survey-gap analysis in expeditionary research: where do we go from here?

Research expeditions into remote areas to collect biological specimens provide vital information for understanding biodiversity. However, major expeditions to little-known areas are expensive and time consuming, time is short, and well-trained people are difficult to find. In addition, processing the collections and obtaining accurate identifications takes time and money. In order to get the maximum return for the investment, we need to determine the location of the collecting expeditions carefully. In this study we used environmental variables and information on existing collecting localities to help determine the sites of future expeditions. Results from other studies were used to aid in the selection of the environmental variables, including variables relating to temperature, rainfall, lithology and distance between sites. A survey gap analysis tool based on 'ED complementarity' was employed to select the sites that would most likely contribute the most new taxa. The tool does not evaluate how well collected a previously visited site survey site might be; however, collecting effort was estimated based on species accumulation curves. We used the number of collections and/or number of species at each collecting site to eliminate those we deemed poorly collected. Plants, birds, and insects from Guyana were examined using the survey gap analysis tool, and sites for future collecting expeditions were determined. The south-east section of Guyana had virtually no collecting information available. It has been inaccessible for many years for political reasons and as a result, eight of the first ten sites selected were in that area. In order to evaluate the remainder of the country, and because there are no immediate plans by the Government of Guyana to open that area to exploration, that section of the country was not included in the remainder of the study. The range of the ED complementarity values dropped sharply after the first ten sites were selected. For plants, the group for which we had the most records, areas selected included several localities in the Pakaraima Mountains, the border with the south-east, and one site in the north-west. For birds, a moderately collected group, the strongest need was in the north-west followed by the east. Insects had the smallest data set and the largest range of ED complementarity values; the results gave strong emphasis to the southern parts of the country, but most of the locations appeared to be equidistant from one another, most likely because of insufficient data. Results demonstrate that the use of a survey gap analysis tool designed to solve a locational problem using continuous environmental data can help maximize our resources for gathering new information on biodiversity. (c) 2005 The Linnean Society of London.