Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Design, modeling and construction of a novel ablative fast pyrolysis reactor and product collection system

The objective of this work was to design, construct and commission a new ablative pyrolysis reactor and a high efficiency product collection system. The reactor was to have a nominal throughput of 10 kg/11r of dry biomass and be inherently scalable up to an industrial scale application of 10 tones/hr. The whole process consists of a bladed ablative pyrolysis reactor, two high efficiency cyclones for char removal and a disk and doughnut quench column combined with a wet walled electrostatic precipitator, which is directly mounted on top, for liquids collection. In order to aid design and scale-up calculations, detailed mathematical modelling was undertaken of the reaction system enabling sizes, efficiencies and operating conditions to be determined. Specifically, a modular approach was taken due to the iterative nature of some of the design methodologies, with the output from one module being the input to the next. Separate modules were developed for the determination of the biomass ablation rate, specification of the reactor capacity, cyclone design, quench column design and electrostatic precipitator design. These models enabled a rigorous design protocol to be developed capable of specifying the required reactor and product collection system size for specified biomass throughputs, operating conditions and collection efficiencies. The reactor proved capable of generating an ablation rate of 0.63 mm/s for pine wood at a temperature of 525 'DC with a relative velocity between the heated surface and reacting biomass particle of 12.1 m/s. The reactor achieved a maximum throughput of 2.3 kg/hr, which was the maximum the biomass feeder could supply. The reactor is capable of being operated at a far higher throughput but this would require a new feeder and drive motor to be purchased. Modelling showed that the reactor is capable of achieving a reactor throughput of approximately 30 kg/hr. This is an area that should be considered for the future as the reactor is currently operating well below its theoretical maximum. Calculations show that the current product collection system could operate efficiently up to a maximum feed rate of 10 kg/Fir, provided the inert gas supply was adjusted accordingly to keep the vapour residence time in the electrostatic precipitator above one second. Operation above 10 kg/hr would require some modifications to the product collection system. Eight experimental runs were documented and considered successful, more were attempted but due to equipment failure had to be abandoned. This does not detract from the fact that the reactor and product collection system design was extremely efficient. The maximum total liquid yield was 64.9 % liquid yields on a dry wood fed basis. It is considered that the liquid yield would have been higher had there been sufficient development time to overcome certain operational difficulties and if longer operating runs had been attempted to offset product losses occurring due to the difficulties in collecting all available product from a large scale collection unit. The liquids collection system was highly efficient and modeling determined a liquid collection efficiency of above 99% on a mass basis. This was validated due to the fact that a dry ice/acetone condenser and a cotton wool filter downstream of the collection unit enabled mass measurements of the amount of condensable product exiting the product collection unit. This showed that the collection efficiency was in excess of 99% on a mass basis.

The development of a multi-function computer-assisted instruction system using a hierarchical database structure as the lesson compendium.

Computer-Based Learning systems of one sort or another have been in existence for almost 20 years, but they have yet to achieve real credibility within Commerce, Industry or Education. A variety of reasons could be postulated for this, typically: - cost - complexity - inefficiency - inflexibility - tedium Obviously different systems deserve different levels and types of criticism, but it still remains true that Computer-Based Learning (CBL) is falling significantly short of its potential. Experience of a small, but highly successful CBL system within a large, geographically distributed industry (the National Coal Board) prompted an investigation into currently available packages, the original intention being to purchase the most suitable software and run it on existing computer hardware, alongside existing software systems. It became apparent that none of the available CBL packages were suitable, and a decision was taken to develop an in-house Computer-Assisted Instruction system according to the following criteria: - cheap to run; - easy to author course material; - easy to use; - requires no computing knowledge to use (as either an author or student) ; - efficient in the use of computer resources; - has a comprehensive range of facilities at all levels. This thesis describes the initial investigation, resultant observations and the design, development and implementation of the SCHOOL system. One of the principal characteristics c£ SCHOOL is that it uses a hierarchical database structure for the storage of course material - thereby providing inherently a great deal of the power, flexibility and efficiency originally required. Trials using the SCHOOL system on IBM 303X series equipment are also detailed, along with proposed and current development work on what is essentially an operational CBL system within a large-scale Industrial environment.

Designing a methodology for an office communication and information system:for executives in the Malaysian public sector : the Prime Minister's office

Modern managers are under tremendous pressure in attempting to fulfil a profoundly complex managerial task, that of handling information resources. Information management, an intricate process requiring a high measure of human cognition and discernment, involves matching a manager's lack of information processing capacity against his information needs, with voluminous information at his disposal. The nature of the task will undoubtedly become more complex in the case of a large organisation. Management of large-scale organisations is therefore an exceedingly challenging prospect for any manager to be faced with. A system that supports executive information needs will help reduce managerial and informational mismatches. In the context of the Malaysian public sector, the task of overall management lies with the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. The Prime Minister's Office is presently supporting the Prime Minister's information and managerial needs, although not without various shortcomings. The rigid formalised structure predominant of the Malaysian public sector, so opposed to dynamic treatment of problematic issues as faced by that sector, further escalates the managerial and organisational problem of coping with a state of complexity. The principal features of the research are twofold: the development of a methodology for diagnosing the problem organisation' and the design of an office system. The methodological development is done in the context of the Malaysian public sector, and aims at understanding the complexity of its communication and control situation. The outcome is a viable model of the public sector. `Design', on the other hand, is developing a syntax or language for office systems which provides an alternative to current views on office systems. The design is done with reference to, rather than for, the Prime Minister's Office. The desirable outcome will be an office model called Office Communication and Information System (OCIS).

The Complex Unified Evolutionary Approach to the Creation of the Multilevel Distributed Control System of a Gas-transport Company

The objects of a large-scale gas-transport company (GTC) suggest a complex unified evolutionary approach, which covers basic building concepts, up-to-date technologies, models, methods and means that are used in the phases of design, adoption, maintenance and development of the multilevel automated distributed control systems (ADCS).. As a single methodological basis of the suggested approach three basic Concepts, which contain the basic methodological principles and conceptual provisions on the creation of distributed control systems, were worked out: systems of the lower level (ACS of the technological processes based on up-to-date SCADA), of the middle level (ACS of the operative-dispatch production control based on MES-systems) and of the high level (business process control on the basis of complex automated systems ERP).

Permanent magnet synchronous generator based wind power generation system fault protection schemes

The PMSG-based wind power generation system protection is presented in this paper. For large-scale systems, a voltagesource converter rectifier is included. Protection circuits for this topology are studied with simulation results for cable permanent fault conditions. These electrical protection methods are all in terms of dumping redundant energy resulting from disrupted path of power delivery. Pitch control of large-scale wind turbines are considered for effectively reducing rotor shaft overspeed. Detailed analysis and calculation of damping power and resistances are presented. Simulation results including fault overcurrent, DC-link overvoltage and wind turbine overspeed are shown to illustrate the system responses under different protection schemes to compare their application and effectiveness.

VLSI testing and characterization system for micro electro-mechanical (MEM) sensors

The purpose of this investigation was to develop and implement a general purpose VLSI (Very Large Scale Integration) Test Module based on a FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) system to verify the mechanical behavior and performance of MEM sensors, with associated corrective capabilities; and to make use of the evolving System-C, a new open-source HDL (Hardware Description Language), for the design of the FPGA functional units. System-C is becoming widely accepted as a platform for modeling, simulating and implementing systems consisting of both hardware and software components. In this investigation, a Dual-Axis Accelerometer (ADXL202E) and a Temperature Sensor (TMP03) were used for the test module verification. Results of the test module measurement were analyzed for repeatability and reliability, and then compared to the sensor datasheet. Further study ideas were identified based on the study and results analysis. ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) design concepts were also being pursued.

Diel and seasonal variation in the use of a nearshore sandflat by a ray community in a near pristine system

Knowledge of movements and habitat use is necessary to assess a species’ ecological role and is especially important for mesopredators because they provide the link between upper and lower trophic levels. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined coarse-scale diel and seasonal movements of elasmobranch mesopredators on a shallow sandflat in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Giant shovelnose rays (Glaucostegus typus) and reticulate whiprays (Himantura uarnak) were most often detected in nearshore microhabitats and were regularly detected throughout the day and year, although reticulate whiprays tended to frequent the monitored array over longer periods. Pink whiprays (H. fai) and cowtail stingrays (Pastinachus atrus) were also detected throughout the day, but were far less frequently detected. Overall, there was no apparent spatial or temporal partitioning of the sandflats, but residency to the area varied between species. In addition, ray presence throughout the year suggests that previously observed differences in seasonal abundance are likely because of seasonal changes in habitat use rather than large-scale migrations. Continuous use of the sandflats and limited movements within this ray community suggests that rays have the potential to be a structuring force on this system and that focusing on nearshore habitats is important for managing subtropical ray populations.

Event mining for system and service management

Modern IT infrastructures are constructed by large scale computing systems and administered by IT service providers. Manually maintaining such large computing systems is costly and inefficient. Service providers often seek automatic or semi-automatic methodologies of detecting and resolving system issues to improve their service quality and efficiency. This dissertation investigates several data-driven approaches for assisting service providers in achieving this goal. The detailed problems studied by these approaches can be categorized into the three aspects in the service workflow: 1) preprocessing raw textual system logs to structural events; 2) refining monitoring configurations for eliminating false positives and false negatives; 3) improving the efficiency of system diagnosis on detected alerts. Solving these problems usually requires a huge amount of domain knowledge about the particular computing systems. The approaches investigated by this dissertation are developed based on event mining algorithms, which are able to automatically derive part of that knowledge from the historical system logs, events and tickets. ^ In particular, two textual clustering algorithms are developed for converting raw textual logs into system events. For refining the monitoring configuration, a rule based alert prediction algorithm is proposed for eliminating false alerts (false positives) without losing any real alert and a textual classification method is applied to identify the missing alerts (false negatives) from manual incident tickets. For system diagnosis, this dissertation presents an efficient algorithm for discovering the temporal dependencies between system events with corresponding time lags, which can help the administrators to determine the redundancies of deployed monitoring situations and dependencies of system components. To improve the efficiency of incident ticket resolving, several KNN-based algorithms that recommend relevant historical tickets with resolutions for incoming tickets are investigated. Finally, this dissertation offers a novel algorithm for searching similar textual event segments over large system logs that assists administrators to locate similar system behaviors in the logs. Extensive empirical evaluation on system logs, events and tickets from real IT infrastructures demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approaches.^

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

X-ray diffraction analysis, binocular component analysis and radiocarbon dating of sediment cores from the NW Iberian shelf system

Based on a well-established stratigraphic framework and 47 AMS-14C dated sediment cores, the distribution of facies types on the NW Iberian margin is analysed in response to the last deglacial sea-level rise, thus providing a case study on the sedimentary evolution of a high-energy, low-accumulation shelf system. Altogether, four main types of sedimentary facies are defined. (1) A gravel-dominated facies occurs mostly as time-transgressive ravinement beds, which initially developed as shoreface and storm deposits in shallow waters on the outer shelf during the last sea-level lowstand; (2) A widespread, time-transgressive mixed siliceous/biogenic-carbonaceous sand facies indicates areas of moderate hydrodynamic regimes, high contribution of reworked shelf material, and fluvial supply to the shelf; (3) A glaucony-containing sand facies in a stationary position on the outer shelf formed mostly during the last-glacial sea-level rise by reworking of older deposits as well as authigenic mineral formation; and (4) A mud facies is mostly restricted to confined Holocene fine-grained depocentres, which are located in mid-shelf position. The observed spatial and temporal distribution of these facies types on the high-energy, low-accumulation NW Iberian shelf was essentially controlled by the local interplay of sediment supply, shelf morphology, and strength of the hydrodynamic system. These patterns are in contrast to high-accumulation systems where extensive sediment supply is the dominant factor on the facies distribution. This study emphasises the importance of large-scale erosion and material recycling on the sedimentary buildup during the deglacial drowning of the shelf. The presence of a homogenous and up to 15-m thick transgressive cover above a lag horizon contradicts the common assumption of sparse and laterally confined sediment accumulation on high-energy shelf systems during deglacial sea-level rise. In contrast to this extensive sand cover, laterally very confined and maximal 4-m thin mud depocentres developed during the Holocene sea-level highstand. This restricted formation of fine-grained depocentres was related to the combination of: (1) frequently occurring high-energy hydrodynamic conditions; (2) low overall terrigenous input by the adjacent rivers; and (3) the large distance of the Galicia Mud Belt to its main sediment supplier.

Large volume metrology process model:measurability analysis with integration of metrology classification model and feature-based selection model

Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

Genomic consequences of mating system evolution in the Pacific coastal dune endemic, Abronia umbellata (Nyctaginaceae)

The advent of next-generation sequencing has significantly reduced the cost of obtaining large-scale genetic resources, opening the door for genomic studies of non-model but ecologically interesting species. The shift in mating system, from outcrossing to selfing, has occurred thousands of times in angiosperms and is accompanied by profound changes in the population genetics and ecology of a species. A large body of work has been devoted to understanding why the shift occurs and the impact of the shift on the genetics of the resulting selfing populations, however, the causes and consequences of the transition to selfing involve a complicated interaction of genetic and demographic factors which are difficult to untangle. Abronia umbellata is a Pacific coastal dune endemic which displays a striking shift in mating system across its geographic range, with large-flowered outcrossing populations south of San Francisco and small-flowered selfing populations to the north. Abronia umbellata is an attractive model system for the study of mating system transitions because the shift appears to be recent and therefore less obscured by post-shift processes, it has a near one-dimensional geographic range which simplifies analysis and interpretation, and demographic data has been collected for many of the populations. In this study, we generated transcriptome-level data for 12 plants including individuals from both subspecies, along with a resequencing study of 48 individuals from populations across the range. The genetic analysis revealed a recent transition to selfing involving a drastic reduction in genetic diversity in the selfing lineage, potentially indicative of a recent population bottleneck and a transition to selfing due to reproductive assurance. Interestingly, the genetic structure of the populations was not coincident with the current subspecies demarcation, and two large-flowered populations were classified with the selfing subspecies, suggesting a potential need for re-evaluation of the current subspecies classification. Our finding of low diversity in selfing populations may also have implications for the conservation value of the threatened selfing subspecies.

UTILIZATION OF GIS AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES IN ARTISANAL AND SMALL SCALE MINING TO LOCATE A CENTRALIZED PROCESSING CENTRE

One of the global phenomena with threats to environmental health and safety is artisanal mining. There are ambiguities in the manner in which an ore-processing facility operates which hinders the mining capacity of these miners in Ghana. These problems are reviewed on the basis of current socio-economic, health and safety, environmental, and use of rudimentary technologies which limits fair-trade deals to miners. This research sought to use an established data-driven, geographic information (GIS)-based system employing the spatial analysis approach for locating a centralized processing facility within the Wassa Amenfi-Prestea Mining Area (WAPMA) in the Western region of Ghana. A spatial analysis technique that utilizes ModelBuilder within the ArcGIS geoprocessing environment through suitability modeling will systematically and simultaneously analyze a geographical dataset of selected criteria. The spatial overlay analysis methodology and the multi-criteria decision analysis approach were selected to identify the most preferred locations to site a processing facility. For an optimal site selection, seven major criteria including proximity to settlements, water resources, artisanal mining sites, roads, railways, tectonic zones, and slopes were considered to establish a suitable location for a processing facility. Site characterizations and environmental considerations, incorporating identified constraints such as proximity to large scale mines, forest reserves and state lands to site an appropriate position were selected. The analysis was limited to criteria that were selected and relevant to the area under investigation. Saaty’s analytical hierarchy process was utilized to derive relative importance weights of the criteria and then a weighted linear combination technique was applied to combine the factors for determination of the degree of potential site suitability. The final map output indicates estimated potential sites identified for the establishment of a facility centre. The results obtained provide intuitive areas suitable for consideration

Local Storage Meets Local Demand: A Technical Solution to Future Power Distribution System

Future power systems are expected to integrate large-scale stochastic and intermittent generation and load due to reduced use of fossil fuel resources, including renewable energy sources (RES) and electric vehicles (EV). Inclusion of such resources poses challenges for the dynamic stability of synchronous transmission and distribution networks, not least in terms of generation where system inertia may not be wholly governed by large-scale generation but displaced by small-scale and localised generation. Energy storage systems (ESS) can limit the impact of dispersed and distributed generation by offering supporting reserve while accommodating large-scale EV connection; the latter (load) also participating in storage provision. In this paper, a local energy storage system (LESS) is proposed. The structure, requirement and optimal sizing of the LESS are discussed. Three operating modes are detailed, including: 1) storage pack management; 2) normal operation; and 3) contingency operation. The proposed LESS scheme is evaluated using simulation studies based on data obtained from the Northern Ireland regional and residential network.