Iowa Results First: Return on Investment for Corrections Programs - 2012, May 2012

The Iowa Department of Management requested the Iowa Department of Corrections to accept the Pew Center on the States’ invitation to be trained in assessing the return on investment to taxpayers from criminal justice programs utilized by the State of Iowa. Using the Results First model, a nationally recognized, peer-reviewed tool developed by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy (WSIPP), the Department of Corrections has calculated the rate of return on investment for Iowa adult offender programs for each program area included in the model.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Sähköverkkoliiketoimintojen valvontamallit eräissä Euroopan maissa

Sähkömarkkinauudistukset ovat tuoneet kilpailun sähkön tuotantoon ja myyntiin, mutta samalla vahvistaneet tarvetta valvoa sähkönsiirtoa ja -jakelua, jotka ovat ns. luonnollisia monopolitoimintoja. Monopoleja valvotaan, jotta ne eivät väärinkäytä määräävää markkina-asemaansa. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan sähkönjakeluverkkoliiketoiminnan sääntelyyn yleisesti käytettyjä valvontamalleja sekä niiden soveltamisessa huomioon otettavia seikkoja. Tarkasteltuja valvontamalleja on neljä, joista yleisimpiä ovat hintakattosääntely ja liikevaihdon sääntely. Tuoton sääntely on monesti ollut ensimmäinen keino säännellä alaa. Mittatikkusääntelyllä pyritään selvittämään tarkasteltavien yhtiöiden tehokkuutta. Sitä käytetään yleensä muiden mallien lisänä kannustamaan toiminnan tehostamiseen. Yhä useammin valvotaan myös sähköntoimituksen laatua. Jokainen maa valitsee omaan erityistilanteeseensa parhaiten sopivan valvontamallin. Valvontamallit kehittyvät jatkuvasti, jotta asiakkaiden etujen turvaamiseksi on olemassa toimivat regulatiiviset työkalut ja toisaalta sähkönjakeluyhtiöiden toimintaolosuhteet ovat vakaat ja realistiset. Kansallisen regulaattorin on luotava valvontamallin avulla oikeanlaiset kannustimet yhtiöiden toiminnalle, jotta niiden tekemät investointi- ja toimintapäätökset ovat järkeviä ja takaavat sähkönjakelun jatkuvuuden.

LAAJENNUS- JA KORVAUSINVESTOINTIEN JÄLKI TARKKAILU PÄÄOMAVALTAISESSA TEOLLISUUDESSA

Työn tavoitteena on selvittää pääomavaltaisen teollisuudenalan yritysten käyttämiä investointien suunnittelu- ja jälkitarkkailumenetelmiä. Työn keskeisintä aluetta ovat operatiiviset tuottavuusinvestoinnit, kuten laajennus- ja korvausinvestoinnit. Tutkimuksen teoriaosassa käsitellään investointiprosessia ja siihen kiinteästi liittyviä käsitteitä ja toimintoja. Myös käytetyimpien investointilaskentamenetelmien laskentakaavat esitetään. Muita työssä käsiteltäviä aiheita ovat mm. laskentakorkokannan määrittäminen, riskin huomioiminen investointihankkeissa ja reaalioption käsite. Työssä keskitytään eri laskentamenetelmien tulosten antaman informaation tulkintaan. Työssä selvitetään mm. pääoman tuottoasteen (ROI), hyötykustannussuhteen, nykyarvomenetelmän (NPV) ja sisäisen koron menetelmän (IRR) tulosten tulkitsemista. Työssä selvitetään myös käsitteet: taloudellinen lisäarvo (EVA) ja jäännöskate (RI). Työssä tutkitaan investointiprosessia investoinnin jälkitarkkailun kannalta, eli miten mahdollistetaan luotettava ja systemaattinen investoinnin jälkitarkkailu. Myös jälkitarkkailulla saavutettavan tiedon hyödyntämiseen otetaan kantaa. Yhden haasteen työhön asettaa tutkittavan teollisuudenalan konsernien suuri koko. Investointilaskentamenetelmiä on osattava käyttää monipuolisesti. Investointien jälkitarkkailu on huomioitava jo suunnitteluvaiheessa. Yleisesti ottaen yritysten tulisi lisätä nykyarvomenetelmän käyttöä. Jälkitarkkailussa havaittuihin poikkeamiin täytyy reagoida mahdollisimman aikaisessa vaiheessa. Suunnittelun ja jälkitarkkailun apuna voidaan käyttää asiantuntijoista koottua arviointiryhmää. Suuren konsernin on tärkeää kiinnittää huomiota investointien suunnittelu- ja jälkitarkkailutoimintojen yhtenäistämiseen eri tuotantoyksikköjen sisällä. Työn ensisijainen kohdeyritys, UPM-Kymmene Oyj, on yksi maailman suurimmista metsäteollisuusyrityksistä. Tutkimuksen empiirisen osan teossa oli mukana UPM-Kymmenen lisäksi kolme muuta suurta suomalaista pääomavaltaisella teollisuudenalalla toimivaa yritystä: M-Real, Outokumpu ja Stora Enso. Tutkimukseen osallistuneiden yritysten investointiprosessin läpivientiin liittyviä ajatuksia ja toimintamalleja selvitettiin haastattelemalla investointisuunnittelun parissa toimivia henkilöitä.

Enhancement of viability of radiosensitive (PBMC) and resistant (MDA-MB-231) clones in low-dose-rate cobalt-60 radiation therapy

AbstractObjective:In the present study, the authors investigated the in vitrobehavior of radio-resistant breast adenocarcinoma (MDA-MB-231) cells line and radiosensitive peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), as a function of different radiation doses, dose rates and postirradiation time kinetics, with a view to the interest of clinical radiotherapy.Materials and Methods:The cells were irradiated with Co-60, at 2 and 10 Gy and two different exposure rates, 339.56 cGy.min–1 and the other corresponding to one fourth of the standard dose rates, present over a 10-year period of cobalt therapy. Post-irradiation sampling was performed at pre-established kinetics of 24, 48 and 72 hours. The optical density response in viability assay was evaluated and a morphological analysis was performed.Results:Radiosensitive PBMC showed decrease in viability at 2 Gy, and a more significant decrease at 10 Gy for both dose rates. MDAMB- 231 cells presented viability decrease only at higher dose and dose rate. The results showed MDA-MB-231 clone expansion at low dose rate after 48–72 hours post-radiation.Conclusion:Low dose rate shows a possible potential clinical impact involving decrease in management of radio-resistant and radiosensitive tumor cell lines in cobalt therapy for breast cancer.

Ecological and Epidemiological Analyses of Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Rate

The underlying cause of many human autoimmune diseases is unknown, but several environmental factors are implicated in triggering the self-destructive immune reactions. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, potentially leading to persistent neurological deterioration. The cause of MS is not known, and apart from immunomodulatory treatments there is no cure. In the early phase of the disease, relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) is characterized by unpredictable exacerbations of the neurological symptoms called relapses, which can occur at different intervals ranging from 4 weeks to several years. Microbial infections are known to be able to trigger MS relapses, and the patients are instructed to avoid all factors that might increase the risk of infections and to properly use antibiotics as well as to take care of dental hygiene. Among those environmental factors which are known to increase susceptibility to infections, high ambient air inhalable particulate matter levels affect all people within a geographical region. During the period of interest in this thesis, the occurrence of MS relapses could be effectively reduced by injections of interferon, which has immunomodulatory and antiviral properties. In this thesis, ecological and epidemiological analyses were used to study the possible connection between MS relapse occurrence, population level viral infections and air quality factors, as well as the effects of interferon medication. Hospital archive data were collected retrospectively from 1986-2001, a period in time ranging from when interferon medication first became available until just before other disease-modifying MS therapies arrived on the market. The grouped data were studied with logistic regression and intervention analysis, and individual patient data with survival analysis. Interferons proved to be effective in the treatment of MS in this observational study, as the amount of MS exacerbations was lower during interferon use as compared to the time before interferon treatment. A statistically significant temporal relationship between MS relapses and inhalable particular matter (PM₁₀) concentrations was found in this study, which implies that MS patients are affected by the exposure to PM₁₀. Interferon probably protected against the effect of PM₁₀, because a significant increase in the risk of exacerbations was only observed in MS patients without interferon medication following environmental exposure to population level specific viral infections and PM₁₀. Apart from being antiviral, interferon could thus also attenuate the enhancement of immune reactions caused by ambient air PM₁₀. The retrospective approach utilizing carefully constructed hospital records proved to be an economical and reliable source of MS disease information for statistical analyses.

A study on rate correlations of gasification reactions

Gasification offers an environmentally friendly alternative for conventional combustion enabling the use of low grade and troublesome fuel such as municipal waste. While combustion converts fuel directly into thermal energy and noxious gases, gasification thermally converts fuel into gas that can be used in multiple applications. The purpose of this work is to get to know the gasification as a phenomenon and examine the kinetics of gasification. The main interest is in the reaction rates of the most important gasification reactions - water-gas, Boudouard and shift reaction. Reaction rate correlations found in the scientific articles are examined in atmospheric pressure in different temperatures.

Understanding the in vitro dissolution rate of glasses with respect to future clinical applications

Glass is a unique material with a long history. Several glass products are used daily in our everyday life, often unnoticed. Glass can be found not only in obvious applications such as tableware, windows, and light bulbs, but also in tennis rackets, windmill turbine blades, optical devices, and medical implants. The glasses used at present as implants are inorganic silica-based melt-derived compositions mainly for hard-tissue repair as bone graft substitute in dentistry and orthopedics. The degree of glass reactivity desired varies according to implantation situation and it is vital that the ion release from any glasses used in medical applications is controlled. Understanding the in vitro dissolution rate of glasses provides a first approximation of their behavior in vivo. Specific studies concerning dissolution properties of bioactive glasses have been relatively scarce and mostly concentrated to static condition studies. The motivation behind this work was to develop a simple and accurate method for quantifying the in vitro dissolution rate of highly different types of glass compositions with interest for future clinical applications. By combining information from various experimental conditions, a better knowledge of glass dissolution and the suitability of different glasses for different medical applications can be obtained. Thus, two traditional and one novel approach were utilized in this thesis to study glass dissolution. The chemical durability of silicate glasses was tested in water and TRIS-buffered solution at static and dynamic conditions. The traditional in vitro testing with a TRISbuffered solution under static conditions works well with bioactive or with readily dissolving glasses, and it is easy to follow the ion dissolution reactions. However, in the buffered solution no marked differences between the more durable glasses were observed. The hydrolytic resistance of the glasses was studied using the standard procedure ISO 719. The relative scale given by the standard failed to provide any relevant information when bioactive glasses were studied. However, the clear differences in the hydrolytic resistance values imply that the method could be used as a rapid test to get an overall idea of the biodegradability of glasses. The standard method combined with the ion concentration and pH measurements gives a better estimate of the hydrolytic resistance because of the high silicon amount released from a glass. A sensitive on-line analysis method utilizing inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer and a flow-through micro-volume pH electrode was developed to study the initial dissolution of biocompatible glasses. This approach was found suitable for compositions within a large range of chemical durability. With this approach, the initial dissolution of all ions could be measured simultaneously and quantitatively, which gave a good overall idea of the initial dissolution rates for the individual ions and the dissolution mechanism. These types of results with glass dissolution were presented for the first time during the course of writing this thesis. Based on the initial dissolution patterns obtained with the novel approach using TRIS, the experimental glasses could be divided into four distinct categories. The initial dissolution patterns of glasses correlated well with the anticipated bioactivity. Moreover, the normalized surface-specific mass loss rates and the different in vivo models and the actual in vivo data correlated well. The results suggest that this type of approach can be used for prescreening the suitability of novel glass compositions for future clinical applications. Furthermore, the results shed light on the possible bioactivity of glasses. An additional goal in this thesis was to gain insight into the phase changes occurring during various heat treatments of glasses with three selected compositions. Engineering-type T-T-T curves for glasses 1-98 and 13-93 were stablished. The information gained is essential in manufacturing amorphous porous implants or for drawing of continuous fibers of the glasses. Although both glasses can be hot worked to amorphous products at carefully controlled conditions, 1-98 showed one magnitude greater nucleation and crystal growth rate than 13-93. Thus, 13-93 is better suited than 1-98 for working processes which require long residence times at high temperatures. It was also shown that amorphous and partially crystalline porous implants can be sintered from bioactive glass S53P4. Surface crystallization of S53P4, forming Na2O∙CaO∙2SiO2, was observed to start at 650°C. The secondary crystals of Na2Ca4(PO4)2SiO4, reported for the first time in this thesis, were detected at higher temperatures, from 850°C to 1000°C. The crystal phases formed affected the dissolution behavior of the implants in simulated body fluid. This study opens up new possibilities for using S53P4 to manufacture various structures, while tailoring their bioactivity by controlling the proportions of the different phases. The results obtained in this thesis give valuable additional information and tools to the state of the art for designing glasses with respect to future clinical applications. With the knowledge gained we can identify different dissolution patters and use this information to improve the tuning of glass compositions. In addition, the novel online analysis approach provides an excellent opportunity to further enhance our knowledge of glass behavior in simulated body conditions.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Developing the Product Return Process of a Service Center With Lean Methods

Today lean-philosophy has gathered a lot of popularity and interest in many industries. This customer-oriented philosophy helps to understand customer’s value creation which can be used to improve efficiency. A comprehensive study of lean and lean-methods in service industry were created in this research. In theoretical part lean-philosophy is studied in different levels which will help to understand its diversity. To support lean, this research also presents basic concepts of process management. Lastly theoretical part presents a development model to support process development in systematical way. The empirical part of the study was performed by performing experimental measurements during the service center’s product return process and by analyzing this data. Measurements were used to map out factors that have a negative influence on the process flow. Several development propositions were discussed to remove these factors. Problems mainly occur due to challenges in controlling customers and due to the lack of responsibility and continuous improvement on operational level. Development propositions concern such factors as change in service center’s physical environment, standardization of work tasks and training. These factors will remove waste in the product return process and support the idea of continuous improvement.

Time course of changes in heart rate and blood pressure variability in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats treated with insulin

Autonomic neuropathy is a frequent complication of diabetes associated with higher morbidity and mortality in symptomatic patients, possibly because it affects autonomic regulation of the sinus node, reducing heart rate (HR) variability which predisposes to fatal arrhythmias. We evaluated the time course of arterial pressure and HR and indirectly of autonomic function (by evaluation of mean arterial pressure (MAP) variability) in rats (164.5 ± 1.7 g) 7, 14, 30 and 120 days after streptozotocin (STZ) injection, treated with insulin, using measurements of arterial pressure, HR and MAP variability. HR variability was evaluated by the standard deviation of RR intervals (SDNN) and root mean square of successive difference of RR intervals (RMSSD). MAP variability was evaluated by the standard deviation of the mean of MAP and by 4 indices (P1, P2, P3 and MN) derived from the three-dimensional return map constructed by plotting MAPn x [(MAPn+1) - (MAPn)] x density. The indices represent the maximum concentration of points (P1), the longitudinal axis (P2), and the transversal axis (P3) and MN represents P1 x P2 x P3 x 10-3. STZ induced increased urinary glucose in diabetic (D) rats compared to controls (C). Seven days after STZ, diabetes reduced resting HR from 380.6 ± 12.9 to 319.2 ± 19.8 bpm, increased HR variability, as demonstrated by increased SDNN, from 11.77 ± 1.67 to 19.87 ± 2.60 ms, did not change MAP, and reduced P1 from 61.0 ± 5.3 to 51.5 ± 1.8 arbitrary units (AU), P2 from 41.3 ± 0.3 to 29.0 ± 1.8 AU, and MN from 171.1 ± 30.2 to 77.2 ± 9.6 AU of MAP. These indices, as well as HR and MAP, were similar for D and C animals 14, 30 and 120 days after STZ. Seven-day rats showed a negative correlation of urinary glucose with resting HR (r = -0.76, P = 0.03) as well as with the MN index (r = -0.83, P = 0.01). We conclude that rats with short-term diabetes mellitus induced by STZ presented modified autonomic control of HR and MAP which was reversible. The metabolic control may influence these results, suggesting that insulin treatment and a better metabolic control in this model may modify arterial pressure, HR and MAP variability

Heart rate and body weight alterations in juvenile specimens of the tropical land snail Megalobulimus sanctipauli during dormancy

The time course of heart rate and body weight alterations during the natural period of dormancy were determined in active feeding and dormant juvenile specimens of Megalobulimus sanctipauli. In both groups, heart rate markedly decreased during the first 40 days of dormancy, tending to stabilize thereafter. This time period coincided with the decrease in environmental temperature during autumn-winter. At the end of the dormancy period, surviving active feeding and dormant snails showed a significant decrease in heart rate which, however, was significantly greater in the latter group. Total body weight decreased concomitantly with heart rate in dormant snails but remained constant in active feeding snails. Body hydration induced significant increases in weight and heart rate in surviving dormant snails. Feeding following hydration promoted a new significant increase in heart rate but not in weight. These results indicate that the decrease in heart rate observed in juvenile specimens of M. sanctipauli during dormancy may be due to at least three factors: 1) decrease in environmental temperature during autumn-winter, 2) starvation which leads to the depletion of endogenous fuel reserves and to a probable decrease in hemolymph nutrient levels, and 3) dehydration which leads to a probable decrease in hemolymph volume and venous return and/or to an increase in hemolymph osmolarity.

Role of the cardiac nerve in the effect of a novel innocuous stimulus on the heart rate of Megalobulimus mogianensis

The effects of a brief jet of water delivered to the anterior portion of body-head on the heart rate of Megalobulimus mogianensis were determined in a group of intact snails (N = 8), previously prepared for electrocardiogram recording. The heart rate was significantly increased following stimulation. Nevertheless, with repetition of the stimulus there was a significant decrease in the magnitude of the heart rate variation and in the time for the basal heart rate to recover (first stimulus, 7.4 ± 1.2 bpm and 15.5 ± 1.8 min; second stimulus, 4.8 ± 1.0 bpm and 10.6 ± 1.5 min; third stimulus, 5.0 ± 0.3 bpm and 11.1 ± 1.8 min), indicating that this behavioral response undergoes early habituation. To determine the role of the cardiac nerve in mediating the heart rate alterations induced by the jet of water two other groups were tested: denervated animals (N = 8) and sham-operated control animals (N = 8). Although the innocuous stimulus caused the heart rate to increase significantly in both experimental groups, the mean increase in heart rate in denervated animals (3.2 ± 0.4 bpm) was 41% of the value obtained in sham-operated animals (7.8 ± 1.5 bpm), indicating that the cardiac nerve is responsible for 59% of the cardioacceleration induced by the innocuous stimulus. The increase in heart rate observed in denervated animals may be due to an increase in venous return promoted by the intense muscular activity associated with the retraction-protraction of the anterior part of the body induced by the jet of water.

Role of the cardiac nerve in the adaptive changes of heart rate in response to an aversive stimulus in Megalobulimus mogianensis

The effect of an aversive stimulus represented by contact with a hot plate on the heart rate of Megalobulimus mogianensis was evaluated with electrocardiogram recording in intact snails (N = 8). All stimulated animals showed an increase in heart rate, with mean values ranging from 35.6 ± 1.2 (basal heart rate) to 43.8 ± 0.9 bpm (post-stimulation heart rate). The cardioacceleration was followed by gradual recovery of the basal heart rate, with mean recovery times varying from 4.3 ± 0.3 to 5.8 ± 0.6 min. Repetition of the stimulus did not affect the magnitude of variation nor did it influence the basal heart rate recovery time. To investigate the role of the cardiac nerve in mediating the heart rate alterations induced by the aversive stimulus, denervated (N = 8) and sham-operated (N = 8) animals were also tested. Although the aversive stimulus caused the heart rate to increase significantly in both experimental groups, the mean increase in heart rate in denervated animals (4.4 ± 0.4 bpm) was 57% of the value obtained in sham-operated animals (7.7 ± 1.3 bpm), indicating that the cardiac nerve is responsible for 43% of the cardioacceleration induced by the aversive stimulus. The cardioacceleration observed in denervated snails may be due to an increase in venous return promoted by the intense muscular activity associated with the withdrawal response. Humoral factors may also be involved. A probable delaying inhibitory effect of the cardiac nerve on the recuperation of the basal heart rate is suggested.