Tipos de lógica utilizadas en la toma de decisiones estratégicas de marketing

Para el administrador el proceso de la toma de decisiones es uno de sus mayores retos y responsabilidades, ya que en su desarrollo se debe definir el camino más acertado en un sin número de alternativas, teniendo en cuenta los obstáculos sociales, políticos y económicos del entorno empresarial. Para llegar a la decisión adecuada no hay que perder de vista los objetivos y metas propuestas, además de tener presente el proceso lógico, detectando, analizando y demostrando el porqué de esa elección. Consecuentemente el análisis que propone esta investigación aportara conocimientos sobre los tipos de lógica utilizados en la toma de decisiones estratégicas al administrador para satisfacer las demandas asociadas con el mercadeo para que de esta manera se pueda generar y ampliar eficientemente las competencia idóneas del administrador en la inserción internacional de un mercado laboral cada vez mayor (Valero, 2011). A lo largo de la investigación se pretende desarrollar un estudio teórico para explicar la relación entre la lógica y la toma de decisiones estratégicas de marketing y como estos conceptos se combinan para llegar a un resultado final. Esto se llevara a cabo por medio de un análisis de planes de marketing, iniciando por conceptos básicos como marketing, lógica, decisiones estratégicas, dirección de marketing seguido de los principios lógicos y contradicciones que se pueden llegar a generar entre la fundamentación teórica

Actitudes hacia el VIH/SIDA, el cáncer y la enfermedad de Alzheimer

Esta revisión de la literatura tuvo como objetivo describir las actitudes hacia el VIH/SIDA, el cáncer y la Enfermedad de Alzheimer desde el modelo tripartito. Se revisaron 109 artículos publicados entre 2005 y 2015 en algunas bases de datos especializadas y herramientas de análisis de impacto. También se incluyeron fuentes secundarias ampliándose la búsqueda a los últimos 20 años (1995-2015). Los resultados mostraron que la mayoría de los estudios realizados sobre las actitudes hacia estas tres enfermedades son de tipo cuantitativo y la información se analizó con base en los componentes del modelo tripartito. Algunos aspectos sociodemográficos como el sexo y la edad están asociados con las actitudes hacia las tres enfermedades y predominan las creencias erróneas sobre ellas respecto a sus causas, curso y tratamiento. También predominan actitudes negativas hacia las tres enfermedades y las conductas e intenciones conductuales son diversas hacia cada una de ellas. No se hallaron antecedentes empíricos del estudio de la estructura de las actitudes propuesta por el modelo tripartito hacia las tres enfermedades. La Salud Pública ha liderado la investigación con base en el modelo de conocimientos, actitudes y prácticas propuesto por la OMS.

Efectividad del tratamiento inmunomodulador con leucocitos alogénicos, en aborto involuntario recurrente. Revisión sistemática y metaanálisis

Dentro del marco del aborto involuntario recurrente (AIR), se han propuesto causas autoinmunes y alogénicas, e implementación de terapias como la inmunización activa con leucocitos alogénicos de la pareja o de donantes. La evidencia disponible en cuanto a la efectividad de estos tratamientos es contradictoria, por lo que se desea realizar una revisión sistemática para evaluar la efectividad de la inmunización activa con leucocitos alogénicos de la pareja o de donantes para esta condición. Se realizó un estudio tipo revisión sistemática de la literatura, usando las siguientes bases de datos: Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library y Scielo. Se realizó una búsqueda a través del registro de ensayos clínicos del Instituto Nacional de Salud de los Estados Unidos (www.clinicaltrials.gov) y, una búsqueda manual a través de las referencias de los estudios seleccionados siguiendo la estrategia de bola de nieve. Se seleccionaron ensayos clínicos y estudios de cohorte analítica, en idioma inglés y español. Se realizó un análisis cuantitativo de la información por medio de un metaanálisis. El tratamiento inmunomodulador con linfocitos puede considerarse como una terapia efectiva para mantener la gestación y lograr recién nacido vivo según resultados estadísticos; sin embargo la calidad de los estudios incluidos es baja, por lo que no se aconseja para la práctica rutinaria. Se sugiere la realización de estudios con metodologías robustas y que apoyen los resultados presentados en esta investigación.

Prediction of the bulking phenomenon in wastewater treatment plants

The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelation between variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics

OpenSearch-geo: the simple standard for geographic web search engines

When publishing information on the web, one expects it to reach all the people that could be interested in. This is mainly achieved with general purpose indexing and search engines like Google which is the most used today. In the particular case of geographic information (GI) domain, exposing content to mainstream search engines is a complex task that needs specific actions. In many occasions it is convenient to provide a web site with a specially tailored search engine. Such is the case for on-line dictionaries (wikipedia, wordreference), stores (amazon, ebay), and generally all those holding thematic databases. Due to proliferation of these engines, A9.com proposed a standard interface called OpenSearch, used by modern web browsers to manage custom search engines. Geographic information can also benefit from the use of specific search engines. We can distinguish between two main approaches in GI retrieval information efforts: Classical OGC standardization on one hand (CSW, WFS filters), which are very complex for the mainstream user, and on the other hand the neogeographer’s approach, usually in the form of specific APIs lacking a common query interface and standard geographic formats. A draft ‘geo’ extension for OpenSearch has been proposed. It adds geographic filtering for queries and recommends a set of simple standard response geographic formats, such as KML, Atom and GeoRSS. This proposal enables standardization while keeping simplicity, thus covering a wide range of use cases, in both OGC and the neogeography paradigms. In this article we will analyze the OpenSearch geo extension in detail and its use cases, demonstrating its applicability to both the SDI and the geoweb. Open source implementations will be presented as well

Information sources selection methodology for recommender systems based on intrinsic characteristics and trust measure

El treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi presenta un profund estudi i proveïx solucions innovadores en el camp dels sistemes recomanadors. Els mètodes que usen aquests sistemes per a realitzar les recomanacions, mètodes com el Filtrat Basat en Continguts (FBC), el Filtrat Col·laboratiu (FC) i el Filtrat Basat en Coneixement (FBC), requereixen informació dels usuaris per a predir les preferències per certs productes. Aquesta informació pot ser demogràfica (Gènere, edat, adreça, etc), o avaluacions donades sobre algun producte que van comprar en el passat o informació sobre els seus interessos. Existeixen dues formes d'obtenir aquesta informació: els usuaris ofereixen explícitament aquesta informació o el sistema pot adquirir la informació implícita disponible en les transaccions o historial de recerca dels usuaris. Per exemple, el sistema recomanador de pel·lícules MovieLens (http://movielens.umn.edu/login) demana als usuaris que avaluïn almenys 15 pel·lícules dintre d'una escala de * a * * * * * (horrible, ...., ha de ser vista). El sistema genera recomanacions sobre la base d'aquestes avaluacions. Quan els usuaris no estan registrat en el sistema i aquest no té informació d'ells, alguns sistemes realitzen les recomanacions tenint en compte l'historial de navegació. Amazon.com (http://www.amazon.com) realitza les recomanacions tenint en compte les recerques que un usuari a fet o recomana el producte més venut. No obstant això, aquests sistemes pateixen de certa falta d'informació. Aquest problema és generalment resolt amb l'adquisició d'informació addicional, se li pregunta als usuaris sobre els seus interessos o es cerca aquesta informació en fonts addicionals. La solució proposada en aquesta tesi és buscar aquesta informació en diverses fonts, específicament aquelles que contenen informació implícita sobre les preferències dels usuaris. Aquestes fonts poden ser estructurades com les bases de dades amb informació de compres o poden ser no estructurades com les pàgines web on els usuaris deixen la seva opinió sobre algun producte que van comprar o posseïxen. Nosaltres trobem tres problemes fonamentals per a aconseguir aquest objectiu: 1 . La identificació de fonts amb informació idònia per als sistemes recomanadors. 2 . La definició de criteris que permetin la comparança i selecció de les fonts més idònies. 3 . La recuperació d'informació de fonts no estructurades. En aquest sentit, en la tesi proposada s'ha desenvolupat: 1 . Una metodologia que permet la identificació i selecció de les fonts més idònies. Criteris basats en les característiques de les fonts i una mesura de confiança han estat utilitzats per a resoldre el problema de la identificació i selecció de les fonts. 2 . Un mecanisme per a recuperar la informació no estructurada dels usuaris disponible en la web. Tècniques de Text Mining i ontologies s'han utilitzat per a extreure informació i estructurar-la apropiadament perquè la utilitzin els recomanadors. Les contribucions del treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi doctoral són: 1. Definició d'un conjunt de característiques per a classificar fonts rellevants per als sistemes recomanadors 2. Desenvolupament d'una mesura de rellevància de les fonts calculada sobre la base de les característiques definides 3. Aplicació d'una mesura de confiança per a obtenir les fonts més fiables. La confiança es definida des de la perspectiva de millora de la recomanació, una font fiable és aquella que permet millorar les recomanacions. 4. Desenvolupament d'un algorisme per a seleccionar, des d'un conjunt de fonts possibles, les més rellevants i fiable utilitzant les mitjanes esmentades en els punts previs. 5. Definició d'una ontologia per a estructurar la informació sobre les preferències dels usuaris que estan disponibles en Internet. 6. Creació d'un procés de mapatge que extreu automàticament informació de les preferències dels usuaris disponibles en la web i posa aquesta informació dintre de l'ontologia. Aquestes contribucions permeten aconseguir dos objectius importants: 1 . Millorament de les recomanacions usant fonts d'informació alternatives que sigui rellevants i fiables. 2 . Obtenir informació implícita dels usuaris disponible en Internet.

Methodology to obtain the user's Human Values Scale from Smart User Models

En años recientes,la Inteligencia Artificial ha contribuido a resolver problemas encontrados en el desempeño de las tareas de unidades informáticas, tanto si las computadoras están distribuidas para interactuar entre ellas o en cualquier entorno (Inteligencia Artificial Distribuida). Las Tecnologías de la Información permiten la creación de soluciones novedosas para problemas específicos mediante la aplicación de los hallazgos en diversas áreas de investigación. Nuestro trabajo está dirigido a la creación de modelos de usuario mediante un enfoque multidisciplinario en los cuales se emplean los principios de la psicología, inteligencia artificial distribuida, y el aprendizaje automático para crear modelos de usuario en entornos abiertos; uno de estos es la Inteligencia Ambiental basada en Modelos de Usuario con funciones de aprendizaje incremental y distribuido (conocidos como Smart User Model). Basándonos en estos modelos de usuario, dirigimos esta investigación a la adquisición de características del usuario importantes y que determinan la escala de valores dominantes de este en aquellos temas en los cuales está más interesado, desarrollando una metodología para obtener la Escala de Valores Humanos del usuario con respecto a sus características objetivas, subjetivas y emocionales (particularmente en Sistemas de Recomendación).Una de las áreas que ha sido poco investigada es la inclusión de la escala de valores humanos en los sistemas de información. Un Sistema de Recomendación, Modelo de usuario o Sistemas de Información, solo toman en cuenta las preferencias y emociones del usuario [Velásquez, 1996, 1997; Goldspink, 2000; Conte and Paolucci, 2001; Urban and Schmidt, 2001; Dal Forno and Merlone, 2001, 2002; Berkovsky et al., 2007c]. Por lo tanto, el principal enfoque de nuestra investigación está basado en la creación de una metodología que permita la generación de una escala de valores humanos para el usuario desde el modelo de usuario. Presentamos resultados obtenidos de un estudio de casos utilizando las características objetivas, subjetivas y emocionales en las áreas de servicios bancarios y de restaurantes donde la metodología propuesta en esta investigación fue puesta a prueba.En esta tesis, las principales contribuciones son: El desarrollo de una metodología que, dado un modelo de usuario con atributos objetivos, subjetivos y emocionales, se obtenga la Escala de Valores Humanos del usuario. La metodología propuesta está basada en el uso de aplicaciones ya existentes, donde todas las conexiones entre usuarios, agentes y dominios que se caracterizan por estas particularidades y atributos; por lo tanto, no se requiere de un esfuerzo extra por parte del usuario.

Attention and selection behavior on ‘universal search’ result pages

The ISO norm line 9241 states some criteria for ergonomics of human system interaction. In markets with a huge variety of offers and little possibility of differentiation, providers can gain a decisive competitive advantage by user oriented interfaces. A precondition for this is that relevant information can be obtained for entrepreneurial decisions in this regard. To test how users of universal search result pages use those pages and pay attention to different elements, an eye tracking experiment with a mixed design has been developed. Twenty subjects were confronted with search engine result pages (SERPs) and were instructed to make a decision while conditions “national vs. international city” and “with vs. without miniaturized Google map” were used. Different parameters like fixation count, duration and time to first fixation were computed from the eye tracking raw data and supplemented by click rate data as well as data from questionnaires. Results of this pilot study revealed some remarkable facts like a vampire effect on miniaturized Google maps. Furthermore, Google maps did not shorten the process of decision making, Google ads were not fixated, visual attention on SERPs was influenced by position of the elements on the SERP and by the users’ familiarity with the search target. These results support the theory of Amount of Invested Mental Effort (AIME) and give providers empirical evidence to take users’ expectations into account. Furthermore, the results indicated that the task oriented goal mode of participants was a moderator for the attention spent on ads. Most important, SERPs with images attracted the viewers’ attention much longer than those without images. This unique selling proposition may lead to a distortion of competition on markets.

A Newton method for pose refinement of 3D models

Different optimization methods can be employed to optimize a numerical estimate for the match between an instantiated object model and an image. In order to take advantage of gradient-based optimization methods, perspective inversion must be used in this context. We show that convergence can be very fast by extrapolating to maximum goodness-of-fit with Newton's method. This approach is related to methods which either maximize a similar goodness-of-fit measure without use of gradient information, or else minimize distances between projected model lines and image features. Newton's method combines the accuracy of the former approach with the speed of convergence of the latter.

Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Running Climate Models On The NERC Cluster Grid Using G-Rex

Compute grids are used widely in many areas of environmental science, but there has been limited uptake of grid computing by the climate modelling community, partly because the characteristics of many climate models make them difficult to use with popular grid middleware systems. In particular, climate models usually produce large volumes of output data, and running them usually involves complicated workflows implemented as shell scripts. For example, NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) is a state-of-the-art ocean model that is used currently for operational ocean forecasting in France, and will soon be used in the UK for both ocean forecasting and climate modelling. On a typical modern cluster, a particular one year global ocean simulation at 1-degree resolution takes about three hours when running on 40 processors, and produces roughly 20 GB of output as 50000 separate files. 50-year simulations are common, during which the model is resubmitted as a new job after each year. Running NEMO relies on a set of complicated shell scripts and command utilities for data pre-processing and post-processing prior to job resubmission. Grid Remote Execution (G-Rex) is a pure Java grid middleware system that allows scientific applications to be deployed as Web services on remote computer systems, and then launched and controlled as if they are running on the user's own computer. Although G-Rex is general purpose middleware it has two key features that make it particularly suitable for remote execution of climate models: (1) Output from the model is transferred back to the user while the run is in progress to prevent it from accumulating on the remote system and to allow the user to monitor the model; (2) The client component is a command-line program that can easily be incorporated into existing model work-flow scripts. G-Rex has a REST (Fielding, 2000) architectural style, which allows client programs to be very simple and lightweight and allows users to interact with model runs using only a basic HTTP client (such as a Web browser or the curl utility) if they wish. This design also allows for new client interfaces to be developed in other programming languages with relatively little effort. The G-Rex server is a standard Web application that runs inside a servlet container such as Apache Tomcat and is therefore easy to install and maintain by system administrators. G-Rex is employed as the middleware for the NERC1 Cluster Grid, a small grid of HPC2 clusters belonging to collaborating NERC research institutes. Currently the NEMO (Smith et al. 2008) and POLCOMS (Holt et al, 2008) ocean models are installed, and there are plans to install the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model for use in the decadal climate prediction project GCEP (Haines et al., 2008). The science projects involving NEMO on the Grid have a particular focus on data assimilation (Smith et al. 2008), a technique that involves constraining model simulations with observations. The POLCOMS model will play an important part in the GCOMS project (Holt et al, 2008), which aims to simulate the world’s coastal oceans. A typical use of G-Rex by a scientist to run a climate model on the NERC Cluster Grid proceeds as follows :(1) The scientist prepares input files on his or her local machine. (2) Using information provided by the Grid’s Ganglia3 monitoring system, the scientist selects an appropriate compute resource. (3) The scientist runs the relevant workflow script on his or her local machine. This is unmodified except that calls to run the model (e.g. with “mpirun”) are simply replaced with calls to "GRexRun" (4) The G-Rex middleware automatically handles the uploading of input files to the remote resource, and the downloading of output files back to the user, including their deletion from the remote system, during the run. (5) The scientist monitors the output files, using familiar analysis and visualization tools on his or her own local machine. G-Rex is well suited to climate modelling because it addresses many of the middleware usability issues that have led to limited uptake of grid computing by climate scientists. It is a lightweight, low-impact and easy-to-install solution that is currently designed for use in relatively small grids such as the NERC Cluster Grid. A current topic of research is the use of G-Rex as an easy-to-use front-end to larger-scale Grid resources such as the UK National Grid service.

Evaluation of two hybrid metric-conceptual models, for simulating phosphorus transfer from agricultural land in the river enborne, a lowland UK catchment

Across Europe, elevated phosphorus (P) concentrations in lowland rivers have made them particularly susceptible to eutrophication. This is compounded in southern and central UK by increasing pressures on water resources, which may be further enhanced by the potential effects of climate change. The EU Water Framework Directive requires an integrated approach to water resources management at the catchment scale and highlights the need for modelling tools that can distinguish relative contributions from multiple nutrient sources and are consistent with the information content of the available data. Two such models are introduced and evaluated within a stochastic framework using daily flow and total phosphorus concentrations recorded in a clay catchment typical of many areas of the lowland UK. Both models disaggregate empirical annual load estimates, derived from land use data, as a function of surface/near surface runoff, generated using a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Estimates of the daily load from agricultural land, together with those from baseflow and point sources, feed into an in-stream routing algorithm. The first model assumes constant concentrations in runoff via surface/near surface pathways and incorporates an additional P store in the river-bed sediments, depleted above a critical discharge, to explicitly simulate resuspension. The second model, which is simpler, simulates P concentrations as a function of surface/near surface runoff, thus emphasising the influence of non-point source loads during flow peaks and mixing of baseflow and point sources during low flows. The temporal consistency of parameter estimates and thus the suitability of each approach is assessed dynamically following a new approach based on Monte-Carlo analysis. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information servers, present and future

Mainframes, corporate and central servers are becoming information servers. The requirement for more powerful information servers is the best opportunity to exploit the potential of parallelism. ICL recognized the opportunity of the 'knowledge spectrum' namely to convert raw data into information and then into high grade knowledge. Parallel Processing and Data Management Its response to this and to the underlying search problems was to introduce the CAFS retrieval engine. The CAFS product demonstrates that it is possible to move functionality within an established architecture, introduce a different technology mix and exploit parallelism to achieve radically new levels of performance. CAFS also demonstrates the benefit of achieving this transparently behind existing interfaces. ICL is now working with Bull and Siemens to develop the information servers of the future by exploiting new technologies as available. The objective of the joint Esprit II European Declarative System project is to develop a smoothly scalable, highly parallel computer system, EDS. EDS will in the main be an SQL server and an information server. It will support the many data-intensive applications which the companies foresee; it will also support application-intensive and logic-intensive systems.

Communicating information about medication side effects: effects on satisfaction, perceived risk to health, and intention to comply

Previous research has shown that people's evaluations of explanations about medication and their intention to comply with the prescription are detrimentally affected by the inclusion of information about adverse side effects of the medication. The present study (Experiment 1) examined which particular aspects of information about side effects (their number, likelihood of occurrence, or severity) are likely to have the greatest effect on people's satisfaction, perception of risk, and intention to comply, as well as how the information about side effects interacts with information about the severity of the illness for which the medication was prescribed. Across all measures, it was found that manipulations of side effect severity had the greatest impact on people's judgements, followed by manipulations of side effect likelihood and then number. Experiments 2 and 3 examined how the severity of the diagnosed illness and information about negative side effects interact with two other factors suggested by Social Cognition models of health behaviour to affect people's intention to comply: namely, perceived benefit of taking the prescribed drug, and the perceived level of control over preventing or alleviating the side effects. It was found that providing people with a statement about the positive benefit of taking the medication had relatively little effect on judgements, whereas informing them about how to reduce the chances of experiencing the side effects had an overall beneficial effect on ratings.