Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

Equal IgG antibody response to pneumococcal vaccination in all stages of human immunodeficiency virus disease.

To evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of a 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-seropositive patients, 80 men and 18 women received 1 dose of the vaccine (Pneumo 23; Pasteur Mérieux MSD, Brussels). The total IgG antibody response against all 23 Streptococcus pneumoniae capsular antigens was measured. Antibody levels were expressed in arbitrary units per microliter, referring to a standard curve. Geometric mean titers of the total IgG capsular antibodies on the day of vaccination and 30-45 days later were compared. The ratios of titers after and before vaccination in patients with > 500, 200-500, and < 200 CD4 lymphocytes/microL were 10, 10, and 12.6, respectively. Nonresponse (ratio < 4) occurred in 17% of patients and was unrelated to CD4 cell count. The vaccine was well tolerated; no serious side effects occurred. In 83% of the patients with HIV infection, the total antipneumococcal IgG level was higher after vaccination.

A double antibody sandwich ELISA for rapid diagnosis of virus infection and to measure the humoral response against infectious bursal disease on clinical material

A double antibody sandwich ELISA (DAS-ELISA) was developed and employed for simultaneous direct detection of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) from bursal samples and to measure the humoral response, using the same basic immunoreagents, the purified and non-purified antigen, capture antibody and chicken hyperimmune sera were prepared, and standardized for this purpose, the DAS-ELISA was applied to both 80 bursal suspensions and 224 corresponding serum samples from vaccinated and non-vaccinated commercial hocks, Bursae samples were collected at 2 weeks of age, and submitted to histological examination, virus isolation in specific pathogen-free chickens embryos, and the DAS-ELISA technique, Serum titres obtained in indirect ELISA and serum neutralization test were compared with those in DAS-ELISA, the agreement was 80% between DAS-ELISA, and the conventional techniques, with high sensitivity (87%) and specificity (90%).

Immunocytes of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris): Morphologic characterizations and correlations between healthy and disease states under free-ranging and captive conditions

Interest in the health of marine mammals has increased due, in part, to the attention given to human impact on the marine environment. Recent mass strandings of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and rising mortalities of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) have raised questions on the extent to which pollution, infectious disease, "stress," and captivity influence the immune system of these animals. This study has provided the first in-depth characterization of immunocytes in the peripheral blood of dolphins (n = 190) and manatees (n = 56). Immunocyte morphology and baseline values were determined in clinically normal animals under free-ranging, stranded and captive living conditions as well as by age and sex. Additionally, immunocyte population dynamics were characterized in sick animals. This was accomplished with traditional cytochemical techniques and new lymphocyte phenotyping methodology which was validated in this study. Traditional cytochemical techniques demonstrated that blood immunocyte morphology and cell numbers are similar to terrestrial mammals with some notable exceptions. The manatee heterophilic granulocyte is a morphologically unique cell and probably functions similarly to the typical mammalian neutrophil. Eosinophils were rarely found in manatees but were uncommonly high in healthy and sick dolphins. Basophils were not identified. Manatees had higher total lymphocyte numbers compared to dolphins and most terrestrial mammals. Lymphocyte subsets identified in healthy animals included T$\rm\sb{h}$, T$\rm\sb{c/s}$, B and NK cells. Dolphin and manatee T and B cell values were higher than those reported in man and most terrestrial mammals. The manatee has extraordinarily high absolute numbers of circulating T$\rm\sb{h}$ cells which suggests an enhanced immunological response capability. With few exceptions, immunocyte types and absolute numbers were not significantly different between free-ranging, stranded and captive categories or between sex and age categories. The evaluation of immunocyte dynamics in various disease states demonstrated a wide variation in cellular responses which provided new insights into innate, humoral and cell-mediated immunity in these species. Additionally, this study demonstrated that lymphocyte phenotyping has diagnostic significance and could be developed into a potential indicator of immunocompetence in both free-ranging and captive dolphin and manatee populations.

Effects of inoculating dose on the kinetics of Chlamydia muridarum genital infection in female mice

Chlamydia trachomatis infections have been implicated in problems such as pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility in females. Although there are some studies examining the kinetics of ascending infection, there is limited information on the kinetics of pathology development and cellular infiltrate into the reproductive tissues in relation to the effects of inoculating dose, and a better understanding of these is needed. The murine model of female genital tract Chlamydia muridarum infection is frequently used as a model of human C. trachomatis reproductive tract infection. To investigate the kinetics of ascending genital infection and associated pathology development, female BALB/c mice were intravaginally infected with C. muridarum at doses ranging from 5102 to 2.6106 inclusion forming units. We found that the inoculating dose affects the course of infection and the ascension of bacteria, with the highest dose ascending rapidly to the oviducts. By comparison, the lowest dose resulted in the greatest bacterial load in the lower reproductive tract. Interestingly, we found that the dose did not significantly affect inflammatory cell infiltrate in the various regions. Overall, this data show the effects of infectious dose on the kinetics of ascending chlamydial infection and associated inflammatory infiltration in BALB/c mice.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Evidence of unique genotypes of Beak and feather disease virus in Southern Africa

Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD), caused by Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV), is the most significant infectious disease in psittacines. PBFD is thought to have originated in Australia but is now found worldwide; in Africa, it threatens the survival of the indigenous endangered Cape parrot and the vulnerable black-cheeked lovebird. We investigated the genetic diversity of putative BFDVs from southern Africa. Feathers and heparinized blood samples were collected from 27 birds representing 9 psittacine species, all showing clinical signs of PBFD. DNA extracted from these samples was used for PCR amplification of the putative BFDV coat protein (CP) gene. The nucleotide sequences of the CP genes of 19 unique BFDV isolates were determined and compared with the 24 previously described sequences of BFDV isolates from Australasia and America. Phylogenetic analysis revealed eight BFDV lineages, with the southern African isolates representing at least three distinctly unique genotypes; 10 complete genome sequences were determined, representing at least one of every distinct lineage. The nucleotide diversity of the southern African isolates was calculated to be 6.4% and is comparable to that found in Australia and New Zealand. BFDVs in southern Africa have, however, diverged substantially from viruses found in other parts of the world, as the average distance between the southern African isolates and BFDV isolates from Australia ranged from 8.3 to 10.8%. In addition to point mutations, recombination was found to contribute substantially to the level of genetic variation among BFDVs, with evidence of recombination in all but one of the genomes analyzed.

Development of an integrated metabolomic profiling approach for infectious diseases research

Metabolomic profiling offers direct insights into the chemical environment and metabolic pathway activities at sites of human disease. During infection, this environment may receive important contributions from both host and pathogen. Here we apply an untargeted metabolomics approach to identify compounds associated with an E. coli urinary tract infection population. Correlative and structural data from minimally processed samples were obtained using an optimized LC-MS platform capable of resolving ~2300 molecular features. Principal component analysis readily distinguished patient groups and multiple supervised chemometric analyses resolved robust metabolomic shifts between groups. These analyses revealed nine compounds whose provisional structures suggest candidate infection-associated endocrine, catabolic, and lipid pathways. Several of these metabolite signatures may derive from microbial processing of host metabolites. Overall, this study highlights the ability of metabolomic approaches to directly identify compounds encountered by, and produced from, bacterial pathogens within human hosts.

The international politics of disease reporting : towards post-Westphalianism?

Since the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, there has been much discussion about whether the international community has moved into a new post-Westphalian era, where states increasingly recognize certain shared norms that guide what they ought to do in responding to infectious disease outbreaks. In this article I identify this new obligation as the ‘duty to report’, and examine competing accounts on the degree to which states appreciate this new obligation are considered by examining state behaviour during the H5N1 human infectious outbreaks in East Asia (since 2004). The article examines reporting behaviour for H5N1 human infectious cases in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam from 2004 to 2010. The findings lend strong support to the claim that East Asian states have come to accept and comply with the duty to report infectious disease outbreaks and that the assertions of sovereignty in response to global health governance frameworks have not systematically inhibited reporting compliance.

Geographical distribution of human Schistosoma japonicum infection in the Philippines : tools to support disease control and further elimination

S. japonicum infection is believed to be endemic in 28 of the 80 provinces of the Philippines and the most recent data on schistosomiasis prevalence have shown considerable variability between provinces. In order to increase the efficient allocation of parasitic disease control resources in the country, we aimed to describe the small scale spatial variation in S. japonicum prevalence across the Philippines, quantify the role of the physical environment in driving the spatial variation of S. japonicum, and develop a predictive risk map of S. japonicum infection. Data on S. japonicum infection from 35,754 individuals across the country were geo-located at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was then stratified geographically for Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao. Zero-inflated binomial Bayesian geostatistical models of S. japonicum prevalence were developed and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. Results of the analysis show that in the three regions, males and individuals aged ≥ 20 years had significantly higher prevalence of S. japonicum compared with females and children <5 years. The role of the environmental variables differed between regions of the Philippines. S. japonicum infection was widespread in the Visayas whereas it was much more focal in Luzon and Mindanao. This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in prevalence of S. japonicum infection in the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to schistosomiasis interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional schistosomiasis surveys should be prioritized to areas identified to be at high risk, but which were underrepresented in our dataset.

Resistance to amoebic gill disease (AGD) is characterised by the transcriptional dysregulation of immune and cell cycle pathways

Amoebic gill disease (AGD) is a parasite-mediated proliferative gill disease capable of affecting a range of teleost hosts. While a moderate heritability for AGD resistance in Atlantic salmon has been reported previously, the mechanisms by which individuals resist the proliferative effects remain poorly understood. To gain more knowledge of this commercially important trait, we compared gill transcriptomes of two groups of Atlantic salmon, one designated putatively resistant, and one designated putatively susceptible to AGD. Utilising a 17k Atlantic salmon cDNA microarray we identified 196 transcripts that were differentially expressed between the two groups. Expression of 11 transcripts were further examined with real-time quantitative RT-PCR (qPCR) in the AGD-resistant and AGD-susceptible animals, as well as non-infected naïve fish. Gene expression determined by qPCR was in strong agreement with the microarray analysis. A large number of differentially expressed genes were involved in immune and cell cycle responses. Resistant individuals displayed significantly higher expression of genes involved in adaptive immunity and negative regulation of the cell cycle. In contrast, AGD-susceptible individuals showed higher expression of acute phase proteins and positive regulators of the cell cycle. Combined with the gill histopathology, our results suggest AGD resistance is acquired rather than innately present, and that this resistance is for the most part associated with the dysregulation of immune and cell cycle pathways. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine preventable infectious diseases and immunisation service delivery system

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

Hand, foot and mouth disease in China: Evaluating an automated system for the detection of outbreaks

Objective To evaluate the performance of China’s infectious disease automated alert and response system in the detection of outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease. Methods We estimated size, duration and delay in reporting HFM disease outbreaks from cases notified between 1 May 2008 and 30 April 2010 and between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012, before and after automatic alert and response included HFM disease. Sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of detection of aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease outbreaks were estimated by comparing automated detections to observations of public health staff. Findings The alert and response system recorded 106 005 aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012 – a mean of 5.6 aberrations per 100 days in each county that reported HFM disease. The response system had a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 95.0%. The mean delay between the reporting of the first case of an outbreak and detection of that outbreak by the response system was 2.1 days. Between the first and second study periods, the mean size of an HFM disease outbreak decreased from 19.4 to 15.8 cases and the mean interval between the onset and initial reporting of such an outbreak to the public health emergency reporting system decreased from 10.0 to 9.1 days. Conclusion The automated alert and response system shows good sensitivity in the detection of HFM disease outbreaks and appears to be relatively rapid. Continued use of this system should allow more effective prevention and limitation of such outbreaks in China.

Role of big data in the early detection of Ebola and other emerging infectious diseases

The lack of adequate disease surveillance systems in Ebola-affected areas has both reduced the ability to respond locally and has increased global risk. There is a need to improve disease surveillance in vulnerable regions, and digital surveillance could present a viable approach.

Tadpole mouthpart depigmentation as an accurate indicator of chytridiomycosis, an emerging disease of amphibians

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, and its role in causing population declines and species extinctions worldwide has created an urgent need for methods to detect it. Several reports indicate that in anurans chytridiomycosis can cause the depigmentation of tadpole tnouthparts, but the accuracy of using depigmentation to determine disease status remains uncertain. Our objective was to determine for the Mountain Yellow-legged Frog (Rana muscosa) whether visual inspections of the extent of tadpole mouthpart depigmentation could be used to accurately categorize individual tadpoles or R. muscosa populations as B. dendrobatidis-positive or negative. This was accomplished by assessing the degree of mouthpart depigmentation in tadpoles of known disease status (based on PCR assays). The depigmentation of R. muscosa tadpole mouthparts was associated with the presence of B. dendrobatidis, and this association was particularly strong for upper jaw sheaths. Using a rule that classifies tadpoles with upper jaw sheaths that are 100% pigmented as uninfected and those with jaw sheaths that are <100% pigmented as infected resulted in the infection status of 86% of the tadpoles being correctly classified. By applying this rule to jaw sheath pigmentation scores averaged across all tadpoles inspected per site, we were able to correctly categorize the infection status of 92% of the study populations. Similar research on additional anurans is critically needed to determine how broadly applicable our results for R. muscosa are to other species.