La incuestionabilidad del riesgo

Con anterioridad a la década de 1980, la literatura especializada en análisis y gestión del riesgo estaba dominada por la llamada visión tecnocrática o dominante. Esta visión establecía que los desastres naturales eran sucesos físicos extremos, producidos por una naturaleza caprichosa, externos a lo social y que requerían soluciones tecnológicas y de gestión por parte de expertos. Este artículo se centra en desarrollar una nueva explicación para entender la persistencia hegemónica de la visión tecnocrática basada en el concepto de incuestionabilidad del riesgo. Esta propuesta conceptual hace referencia a la incapacidad y desidia de los expertos, científicos y tomadores de decisiones en general (claimmakers) de identificar y actuar sobre las causas profundas de la producción del riesgo ya que ello conllevaría a cuestionar los imperativos normativos, las necesidades de las elites y los estilos de vida del actual sistema socioeconómico globalizado.

Copy of Brimmer's suspension, 1803 April 20

Handwritten copy on one leaf of a vote of the Faculty suspending George Watson Brimmer (Harvard AB 1803) for neglect of his studies.

THE TRANSPORT OF HEAT BY FLOWING GROUNDWATER IN A DISCRETE FRACTURE

In typical theoretical or experimental studies of heat migration in discrete fractures, conduction and thermal dispersion are commonly neglected from the fracture heat transport equation, assuming heat conduction into the matrix is predominant. In this study analytical and numerical models are used to investigate the significance of conduction and thermal dispersion in the plane of the fracture for a point and line sources geometries. The analytical models account for advective, conductive and dispersive heat transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions in the fracture. The heat transport in the fracture is coupled with a matrix equation in which heat is conducted in the direction perpendicular to the fracture. In the numerical model, the governing heat transport processes are the same as the analytical models; however, the matrix conduction is considered in both longitudinal and transverse directions. Firstly, we demonstrate that longitudinal conduction and dispersion are critical processes that affect heat transport in fractured rock environments, especially for small apertures (eg. 100 μm or less), high flow rate conditions (eg. velocity greater than 50 m/day) and early time (eg. less than 10 days). Secondly, transverse thermal dispersion in the fracture plane is also observed to be an important transport process leading to retardation of the migrating heat front particularly at late time (eg. after 40 days of hot water injection). Solutions which neglect dispersion in the transverse direction underestimate the locations of heat fronts at late time. Finally, this study also suggests that the geometry of the heat sources has significant effects on the heat transport in the system. For example, the effects of dispersion in the fracture are observed to decrease when the width of the heat source expands.

Développement et utilisation de modèles in vitro et de données précliniques pour augmenter la prédictibilité de la perméabilité et du métabolisme intestinal chez l'humain

Tout médicament administré par la voie orale doit être absorbé sans être métabolisé par l’intestin et le foie pour atteindre la circulation systémique. Malgré son impact majeur sur l’effet de premier passage de plusieurs médicaments, le métabolisme intestinal est souvent négligé comparativement au métabolisme hépatique. L’objectif de ces travaux de maîtrise est donc d’utiliser, caractériser et développer différents outils in vitro et in vivo pour mieux comprendre et prédire l’impact du métabolisme intestinal sur l’effet de premier passage des médicaments comparé au métabolisme hépatique. Pour se faire, différents substrats d’enzymes du métabolisme ont été incubés dans des microsomes intestinaux et hépatiques et des différences entre la vitesse de métabolisme et les métabolites produits ont été démontrés. Afin de mieux comprendre l’impact de ces différences in vivo, des études mécanistiques chez des animaux canulés et traités avec des inhibiteurs enzymatiques ont été conduites avec le substrat métoprolol. Ces études ont démontré l’impact du métabolisme intestinal sur le premier passage du métoprolol. De plus, elles ont révélé l’effet sur la vidange gastrique du 1-aminobenzotriazole, un inhibiteur des cytochromes p450, évitant ainsi une mauvaise utilisation de cet outil dans le futur. Ces travaux de maîtrise ont permis d’améliorer les connaissances des différents outils in vitro et in vivo pour étudier le métabolisme intestinal tout en permettant de mieux comprendre les différences entre le rôle de l’intestin et du foie sur l’effet de premier passage.

Les dépotoirs dans le schème d’établissement iroquoien : exemple du site Mailhot-Curran

Dans ce mémoire, intitulé « Les dépotoirs dans le schème d’établissement iroquoien: exemple du site Mailhot-Curran», je m’attèle à définir les modes de rejets des déchets dans le contexte d’un schème d’établissement sédentaire semi-permanent au Sylvicole supérieur. Les dépotoirs des sites archéologiques ne semblent pas obtenir toute l’attention analytique qui leur est due et l’étude des modes de rejets a longtemps été négligée. Pourtant, les amas de déchets sont récurrents sur les sites du Nord-Est américain et ce depuis le Sylvicole moyen. L’étude approfondie de l’organisation d’un site iroquoien se doit de passer par la compréhension des modes d’élimination des déchets, puisque la gestion des rejets est généralement le reflet de la structure du site et du type de peuplement. Les dépotoirs peuvent fournir des informations précieuses sur les zones d’activité, la fonction du site ou encore la durée d’occupation. Le village de Mailhot-Curran témoigne de plusieurs concentrations d’objets. Je souhaite établir si ces concentrations de vestiges peuvent être qualifiées de dépotoirs et si oui, peut-on en distinguer différents types? D’autre part, je m’intéresse à l’aspect social qui encadre la mise en place de dépotoirs. Bien que les dépotoirs soient des indices associés aux premières traces de sédentarité saisonnière, leur présence est précisément liée au phénomène de sédentarisation annuelle. Il s’agit également de définir le geste culturel, l’assainissement d’un village étant un schéma culturel très répandu. De ce geste de rejet découle forcément le choix d’un emplacement, ainsi que le concept de «flux de déplacement» des déchets. Il s’agit de déterminer le lien entretenu entre les aires d’activités et les aires de dépôts primaires et secondaires. Pour ce faire, il est primordial d’évaluer la densité, l’hétérogénéité et le contenu des dépotoirs. Suite à la définition de l’ensemble de ces concepts appliqués au site Mailhot-Curran, je souhaite, à travers une étude comparative, répondre à la question suivante : Les dépotoirs peuvent-ils refléter une pratique culturelle commune aux villages iroquoiens de la région de Saint-Anicet?

A tale of oversimplification and deregulation: the mainstream approach to labour market segmentation and the recent responses to the crisis in European countries. WP C.S.D.L.E. “Massimo D’Antona”.INT – 102/2013

After advocating flexibilization of non-standard work contracts for many years, some European and international institutions and several policy makers now indicate the standard employment relationship and its regulation as a cause of segmentation between the labour market of "guaranteed" insiders, employed under permanent contracts with effective protection against unfair dismissal, and the market of the “not-guaranteed” outsiders, working with non-standard contracts. Reforms of employment legislation are therefore being promoted and approved in different countries, allegedly aiming to balance the legal protection afforded to standard and non-standard workers. This article firstly argues that this approach is flawed as it oversimplifies reasons of segmentation as it concentrates on an “insiders-outsiders” discourse that cannot easily be transplanted in continental Europe. After reviewing current legislative changes in Italy, Spain and Portugal, it is then argued that lawmakers are focused on “deregulation” rather than “balancing protection” when approving recent reforms. Finally, the mainstream approach to segmentation and some of its derivative proposals, such as calls to introduce a “single permanent contract”, are called into question, as they seem to neglect the essential role of job protection in underpinning the effectiveness of fundamental and constitutional rights at the workplace.

Money, Finance and the Real Economy: What went wrong? CEPS Paperback, 17 March 2015

The functions of the financial system of a developed economy are often badly understood. This can largely be attributed to free-market ideology, which has spread the belief that leaving finance to its own devices would provide the best possible mechanism for allocating savings. The latest financial crisis has sparked the beginnings of a new awareness on this point, but it is far from having led to an improved understanding of the role of the financial institutions. For many people, finance remains more an enemy to be resisted than an instrument to be intelligently exploited. Its institutions, which issue and circulate money, play an important role in the working of the real economy that it would be imprudent to neglect. The allocation of savings, but also the level of activity and the growth rate depend on it. In this book, the authors carefully analyse the close links between money, finance and the real economy. In the process, they show why today the existence of a substantial potential of saving, instead of being an opportunity for the world economy, could threaten it with ‘secular stagnation’.

Taiwanese Lobbying in the European Union: ‘Workable Diplomacy’ and its Limitations. EU Diplomacy Paper 8/2015

The policy of the European Union (EU) towards Taiwan has mostly been analysed either as a by-product of EU-China relations or with reference to the general lack of a European geopolitical approach towards East Asia. By adopting a lobbying approach which focusses on Taiwan’s different ‘channels of influence’ within the complex European foreign policy system in Brussels, this study provides new insights into the functioning of EU-Taiwan relations. It also sheds new light on the implications of the radical change in Taiwanese diplomacy after 2008, when Chen Shui-bian’s assertive and identity-based diplomacy was replaced with the Kuomintang’s new dogma of ‘workable diplomacy’. Based on semi-guided interviews with Taiwanese and European actors, this paper examines why Taiwanese lobbying in Brussels, albeit very active and professional, is not salient enough to meet the challenges arising from the overwhelming Chinese competition and from the increasing proliferation of regional trade agreements – with active EU participation – in the Asia-Pacific region. It argues that the pragmatic ‘workable diplomacy’ approach, while smoothing out working-level relations between Taiwan and the EU, fails to attract a sufficient degree of political and public attention in Europe to the Taiwan question and thus fosters the neglect of Taiwan by European foreign policy-makers. The main challenge faced by Taiwanese diplomacy, however, is not simply one of convincing through technical arguments, but one of agenda setting, that is, of redefining European priorities in Taiwan’s favour.

Crianças em situação de risco social : perceção dos docentes: um contributo para a proteção e promoção dos direitos das crianças

Este trabalho tem como tema “Crianças em Situação de Risco Social: Perceção dos Docentes. Um contributo para a proteção e promoção dos direitos das crianças” e tem como objetivo tentar conhecer a frequência de alunos do Agrupamento de Escolas do Crato em situação de risco social, bem como os tipos de risco que poderão estar a viver. O Agrupamento de Escolas do Crato é constituído por duas escolas que são elas: a Escola Básica Integrada com Jardim de Infância Professora Ana Maria Ferreira Gordo e a Escola Básica 1 de Gáfete. Neste agrupamento encontra-se em funcionamento o jardim-de-infância, o 1º. ciclo, 2º. ciclo e o 3º. ciclo. A amostra é constituída pelos docentes do 1.º, 2.º e 3.º ciclos do ensino básico, os quais responderam a um questionário por cada aluno, num total de 232 alunos, ou seja, todos os alunos a frequentar o 1.º ou o 2.º ou o 3.ºciclos do ensino básico, excluindo-se apenas as crianças do pré-escolar, abrangendo-se assim toda a população do ensino básico. O instrumento utilizado neste estudo quantitativo foi adaptado do questionário de Díaz-Aguado e Arias (1999) validado na Universidade de Complutense de Madrid, e permitiu identificar vários tipos de risco social (maltrato ativo, problemas emocionais, negligência e condutas anti-sociais) bem como caraterizar algumas das variáveis que se associam a estes problemas no concelho do Crato. Algumas das principais conclusões foram as seguintes: as crianças que eram percecionadas como estando em maior risco social frequentavam o 3.º Ciclo, eram beneficiárias de ação social escolar e tinham mais insucesso escolar.

Clinical prediction of large vessel occlusion in anterior circulation stroke: mission impossible?

Simple clinical scores to predict large vessel occlusion (LVO) in acute ischemic stroke would be helpful to triage patients in the prehospital phase. We assessed the ability of various combinations of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) subitems and published stroke scales (i.e., RACE scale, 3I-SS, sNIHSS-8, sNIHSS-5, sNIHSS-1, mNIHSS, a-NIHSS items profiles A-E, CPSS1, CPSS2, and CPSSS) to predict LVO on CT or MR arteriography in 1085 consecutive patients (39.4 % women, mean age 67.7 years) with anterior circulation strokes within 6 h of symptom onset. 657 patients (61 %) had an occlusion of the internal carotid artery or the M1/M2 segment of the middle cerebral artery. Best cut-off value of the total NIHSS score to predict LVO was 7 (PPV 84.2 %, sensitivity 81.0 %, specificity 76.6 %, NPV 72.4 %, ACC 79.3 %). Receiver operating characteristic curves of various combinations of NIHSS subitems and published scores were equally or less predictive to show LVO than the total NIHSS score. At intersection of sensitivity and specificity curves in all scores, at least 1/5 of patients with LVO were missed. Best odds ratios for LVO among NIHSS subitems were best gaze (9.6, 95 %-CI 6.765-13.632), visual fields (7.0, 95 %-CI 3.981-12.370), motor arms (7.6, 95 %-CI 5.589-10.204), and aphasia/neglect (7.1, 95 %-CI 5.352-9.492). There is a significant correlation between clinical scores based on the NIHSS score and LVO on arteriography. However, if clinically relevant thresholds are applied to the scores, a sizable number of LVOs are missed. Therefore, clinical scores cannot replace vessel imaging.

Les dépotoirs dans le schème d’établissement iroquoien : exemple du site Mailhot-Curran

Dans ce mémoire, intitulé « Les dépotoirs dans le schème d’établissement iroquoien: exemple du site Mailhot-Curran», je m’attèle à définir les modes de rejets des déchets dans le contexte d’un schème d’établissement sédentaire semi-permanent au Sylvicole supérieur. Les dépotoirs des sites archéologiques ne semblent pas obtenir toute l’attention analytique qui leur est due et l’étude des modes de rejets a longtemps été négligée. Pourtant, les amas de déchets sont récurrents sur les sites du Nord-Est américain et ce depuis le Sylvicole moyen. L’étude approfondie de l’organisation d’un site iroquoien se doit de passer par la compréhension des modes d’élimination des déchets, puisque la gestion des rejets est généralement le reflet de la structure du site et du type de peuplement. Les dépotoirs peuvent fournir des informations précieuses sur les zones d’activité, la fonction du site ou encore la durée d’occupation. Le village de Mailhot-Curran témoigne de plusieurs concentrations d’objets. Je souhaite établir si ces concentrations de vestiges peuvent être qualifiées de dépotoirs et si oui, peut-on en distinguer différents types? D’autre part, je m’intéresse à l’aspect social qui encadre la mise en place de dépotoirs. Bien que les dépotoirs soient des indices associés aux premières traces de sédentarité saisonnière, leur présence est précisément liée au phénomène de sédentarisation annuelle. Il s’agit également de définir le geste culturel, l’assainissement d’un village étant un schéma culturel très répandu. De ce geste de rejet découle forcément le choix d’un emplacement, ainsi que le concept de «flux de déplacement» des déchets. Il s’agit de déterminer le lien entretenu entre les aires d’activités et les aires de dépôts primaires et secondaires. Pour ce faire, il est primordial d’évaluer la densité, l’hétérogénéité et le contenu des dépotoirs. Suite à la définition de l’ensemble de ces concepts appliqués au site Mailhot-Curran, je souhaite, à travers une étude comparative, répondre à la question suivante : Les dépotoirs peuvent-ils refléter une pratique culturelle commune aux villages iroquoiens de la région de Saint-Anicet?

A Report to the Congress : joining together to fight child abuse.

"January 1986."

Shades of CORDS in the Kush : the false hope of "unity of effort" in American counterinsurgency /

"Counterinsurgency (COIN) requires an integrated military, political, and economic program best developed by teams that field both civilians and soldiers. These units should operate with some independence but under a coherent command. In Vietnam, after several false starts, the United States developed an effective unified organization, Civil Operations and Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS), to guide the counterinsurgency. CORDS had three components absent from our efforts in Afghanistan today: sufficient personnel (particularly civilian), numerous teams, and a single chain of command that united the separate COIN programs of the disparate American departments at the district, provincial, regional, and national levels. This paper focuses on the third issue and describes the benefits that unity of command at every level would bring to the American war in Afghanistan. The work begins with a brief introduction to counterinsurgency theory, using a population-centric model, and examines how this warfare challenges the United States. It traces the evolution of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and the country team, describing problems at both levels. Similar efforts in Vietnam are compared, where persistent executive attention finally integrated the government's counterinsurgency campaign under the unified command of the CORDS program. The next section attributes the American tendency towards a segregated response to cultural differences between the primary departments, executive neglect, and societal concepts of war. The paper argues that, in its approach to COIN, the United States has forsaken the military concept of unity of command in favor of 'unity of effort' expressed in multiagency literature. The final sections describe how unified authority would improve our efforts in Afghanistan and propose a model for the future."--P. iii.

Child abuse in Wisconsin : annual report.

WI docs. no.: Fam.1/2:4/1967-1977.

Natural science and the classical system in education : essays new and old /

Chapters I-VII reprinted from various journals ; chapters VIII and IX hitherto unpublished.