The Fed Model: International Analysis

The Fed model is a widely used market valuation model. It is often used only on market analysis of the S&P 500 index as a shorthand measure for the attractiveness of equity, and as a timing device for allocating funds between equity and bonds. The Fed model assumes a fixed relationship between bond yield and earnings yield. This relationship is often assumed to be true in market valuation. In this paper we test the Fed model from historical perspective on the European markets. The markets of the United States are also includedfor comparison. The purpose of the tests is to determine if the Fed model and the underlying assumptions come true on different markets. The various tests are made on time-series data ranging from the year 1973 to the end of the year 2008. The statistical methods used are regressions analysis, cointegration analysis and Granger causality. The empirical results do not give strong support for the Fed model. The underlying relationships assumed by the Fed model are statistically not valid in most of the markets examined and therefore the model is not valid in valuation purposes generally. The results vary between the different markets which gives reason to suspect the general use of the Fed model in different market conditions and in different markets.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

A Development and Application of a Three-Dimensional Model for a CFB Gasifier

The developing energy markets and rising energy system costs have sparked the need to find new forms of energy production and increase the self-sufficiency of energy production. One alternative is gasification, whose principles have been known for decades, but it is only recently when the technology has become a true alternative. However, in order to meet the requirements of modern energy production methods, it is necessary to study the phenomenon thoroughly. In order to understand the gasification process better and optimize it from the viewpoint of ecology and energy efficiency, it is necessary to develop effective and reliable modeling tools for gasifiers. The main aims of this work have been to understand gasification as a process and furthermore to develop an existing three-dimensional circulating fluidized bed modeling tool for modeling of gasification. The model is applied to two gasification processes of 12 and 50 MWth. The results of modeling and measurements have been compared and subsequently reviewed. The work was done in co-operation with Lappeenranta University of Technology and Foster Wheeler Energia Oy.

Development of a weather-based model for Botrytis leaf blight of onion

ABSTRACT In the present study, onion plants were tested under controlled conditions for the development of a climate model based on the influence of temperature (10, 15, 20 and 25°C) and leaf wetness duration (6, 12, 24 and 48 hours) on the severity of Botrytis leaf blight of onion caused by Botrytis squamosa. The relative lesion density was influenced by temperature and leaf wetness duration (P <0.05). The disease was most severe at 20°C. Data were subjected to nonlinear regression analysis. Beta generalized function was used to adjust severity and temperature data, while a logistic function was chosen to represent the effect of leaf wetness on the severity of Botrytis leaf blight. The response surface obtained by the product of two functions was expressed as ES = 0.008192 * (((x-5)1.01089) * ((30-x)1.19052)) * (0.33859/(1+3.77989 * exp (-0.10923*y))), where ES represents the estimated severity value (0.1); x, the temperature (°C); and y, the leaf wetness (in hours). This climate model should be validated under field conditions to verify its use as a computational system for the forecasting of Botrytis leaf blight in onion.

Leptogenesis as the origin of matter-antimatter asymmetry in extra dimensional and supersymmetric models

The Standard Model of particle physics is currently the best description of fundamental particles and their interactions. All particles save the Higgs boson have been observed in particle accelerator experiments over the years. Despite the predictive power the Standard Model there are many phenomena that the scenario does not predict or explain. Among the most prominent dilemmas is matter-antimatter asymmetry, and much effort has been made in formulating scenarios that accurately predict the correct amount of matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe. One of the most appealing explanations is baryogenesis via leptogenesis which not only serves as a mechanism of producing excess matter over antimatter but can also explain why neutrinos have very small non-zero masses. Interesting leptogenesis scenarios arise when other possible candidates of theories beyond the Standard Model are brought into the picture. In this thesis, we have studied leptogenesis in an extra dimensional framework and in a modified version of supersymmetric Standard Model. The first chapters of this thesis introduce the standard cosmological model, observations made on the photon to baryon ratio and necessary preconditions for successful baryogenesis. Baryogenesis via leptogenesis is then introduced and its connection to neutrino physics is illuminated. The final chapters concentrate on extra dimensional theories and supersymmetric models and their ability to accommodate leptogenesis. There, the results of our research are also presented.

Modelling of combustion and sorbent reactions in three-dimensional flow environment of a circulating fluidized bed furnace

This thesis presents a three-dimensional, semi-empirical, steady state model for simulating the combustion, gasification, and formation of emissions in circulating fluidized bed (CFB) processes. In a large-scale CFB furnace, the local feeding of fuel, air, and other input materials, as well as the limited mixing rate of different reactants produce inhomogeneous process conditions. To simulate the real conditions, the furnace should be modelled three-dimensionally or the three-dimensional effects should be taken into account. The only available methods for simulating the large CFB furnaces three-dimensionally are semi-empirical models, which apply a relatively coarse calculation mesh and a combination of fundamental conservation equations, theoretical models and empirical correlations. The number of such models is extremely small. The main objective of this work was to achieve a model which can be applied to calculating industrial scale CFB boilers and which can simulate all the essential sub-phenomena: fluid dynamics, reactions, the attrition of particles, and heat transfer. The core of the work was to develop the model frame and the required sub-models for determining the combustion and sorbent reactions. The objective was reached, and the developed model was successfully used for studying various industrial scale CFB boilers combusting different types of fuel. The model for sorbent reactions, which includes the main reactions for calcitic limestones, was applied for studying the new possible phenomena occurring in the oxygen-fired combustion. The presented combustion and sorbent models and principles can be utilized in other model approaches as well, including other empirical and semi-empirical model approaches, and CFD based simulations. The main achievement is the overall model frame which can be utilized for the further development and testing of new sub-models and theories, and for concentrating the knowledge gathered from the experimental work carried out at bench scale, pilot scale and industrial scale apparatus, and from the computational work performed by other modelling methods.

Effectiveness of Pilotage

The objective of the pilotage effectiveness study was to come up with a process descrip-tion of the pilotage procedure, to design performance indicators based on this process description, to be used by Finnpilot, and to work out a preliminary plan for the imple-mentation of the indicators within the Finnpilot organisation. The theoretical aspects of pilotage as well as the guidelines and standards used were determined through a literature review. Based on the literature review, a process flow model with the following phases was created: the planning of pilotage, the start of pilo-tage, the act of pilotage, the end of pilotage and the closing of pilotage. The model based on the literature review was tested through interviews and observation of pilotage. At the same time an e-mail survey directed at foreign pilotage organisations, which included a questionnaire concerning their standards and management systems, operations procedures, measurement tools and their attitude to the passage planning, was conducted. The main issues in the observations and interviews were the passage plan and the bridge team co-operation. The phases of the pilotage process model emerged in both the pilotage activities and the interviews whereas bridge team co-operation was relatively marginal. Most of the pilotage organisations, who responded to the query, also use some standard-based management system. All organisations who answered the survey use some sort of a pilotage process model. According to the query, the main measuring tools for pilotage are statistical information concerning pilotage and the organisations, the customer feedback surveys, and financial results. Attitudes to-wards passage planning were mostly positive among the organisations. A workshop with pilotage experts was arranged where the process model constructed on the basis of the literature review was tuned to match practical pilotage. In the workshop it was determined that certain phases and the corresponding tasks, through which pilo-tage can be described as a process, were identifiable in all pilotage. The result of the workshop was a complemented process model, which separates incoming and outgoing traffic, as well as the fairway pilotage and harbour pilotage from each other. Addition-ally indicators divided according to the data gathering method were defined. Data con-cerning safety and traffic flow is gathered in the form of customer feedback. The pilot's own perceptions of the pilotage process are gathered through self-assessment. The measurement data which is connected to the phases of the pilotage process is generated e.g. by gathering statistics of the success of the pilot dispatches, the accuracy of the pi-lotage and the incidents that occurred during the pilotage, near misses, deviations and accidents. The measurement data is collected via the PilotWeb at the closing of the pilo-tage. A separate project and a project group with pilots also participating will be established for the deployment of the performance indicators. The phases of the project are: the definition phase, the implementation phase and the deployment phase. The purpose of the definition phase is to prepare questions for ship commanders concerning the cus-tomer feedback questionnaire and also to work out the self-assessment queries and the queries concerning the process indicators.

Fatigue study of the fillet weld waving on weld toe and the penetration in the weld root based on the effective notch stress approach

The fatigue failure of structures under fluctuating loads in fillet weld joints raises a demand to determine the parameters related to this type of loading. In this study, the stress distribution in the susceptible area of weld toe and weld root in fillet welded models analyzed by finite element method applying FEMAP software. To avoid the geometrical singularity on the path of analytical stress analysis in the toe and root area of a weld model the effective notch stress approach applied by which a proper fictitious rounding that mostly depend on the material of structure is applied. The models with different weld toe waving width and radius are analyzed while the flank angle of weld varied in 45 and 30 degrees. The processed results shows that the waving compare to the straight weld toe makes differences in the value of stress and consequently the stress concentration factor between the tip and depth of the waves in the weld toe which helps to protect the crack of propagation and gives enough time and tools to be informed of the crack initiation in the structure during the periodical observation of structure. In the weld root study the analyses among the models with the welding penetration percentage from non-penetration to the full-penetration shows a slightly increase in the root area stress value which comparing with the stiffening effect of penetration conclude that the half-penetration can make an optimization between the stress increase and stiffening effect of deep penetration.

Scheduling of guarded command based models

Formal methods provide a means of reasoning about computer programs in order to prove correctness criteria. One subtype of formal methods is based on the weakest precondition predicate transformer semantics and uses guarded commands as the basic modelling construct. Examples of such formalisms are Action Systems and Event-B. Guarded commands can intuitively be understood as actions that may be triggered when an associated guard condition holds. Guarded commands whose guards hold are nondeterministically chosen for execution, but no further control flow is present by default. Such a modelling approach is convenient for proving correctness, and the Refinement Calculus allows for a stepwise development method. It also has a parallel interpretation facilitating development of concurrent software, and it is suitable for describing event-driven scenarios. However, for many application areas, the execution paradigm traditionally used comprises more explicit control flow, which constitutes an obstacle for using the above mentioned formal methods. In this thesis, we study how guarded command based modelling approaches can be conveniently and efficiently scheduled in different scenarios. We first focus on the modelling of trust for transactions in a social networking setting. Due to the event-based nature of the scenario, the use of guarded commands turns out to be relatively straightforward. We continue by studying modelling of concurrent software, with particular focus on compute-intensive scenarios. We go from theoretical considerations to the feasibility of implementation by evaluating the performance and scalability of executing a case study model in parallel using automatic scheduling performed by a dedicated scheduler. Finally, we propose a more explicit and non-centralised approach in which the flow of each task is controlled by a schedule of its own. The schedules are expressed in a dedicated scheduling language, and patterns assist the developer in proving correctness of the scheduled model with respect to the original one.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Modelling of potentiometric ion sensors

Potentiometric ion sensors are a very important subgroup of electrochemical sensors, very attractive for practical applications due to their small size, portability, low-energy consumption, relatively low cost and not changing the sample composition. They are investigated by the researchers from many fields of science. The continuous development of this field creates the necessity for a detailed description of sensor response and the electrochemical processes important in the practical applications of ion sensors. The aim of this thesis is to present the existing models available for the description of potentiometric ion sensors as well as their applicability and limitations. This includes the description of the diffusion potential occurring at the reference electrodes. The wide range of existing models, from most idealised phase boundary models to most general models, including migration, is discussed. This work concentrates on the advanced modelling of ion sensors, namely the Nernst-Planck-Poisson (NPP) model, which is the most general of the presented models, therefore the most widely applicable. It allows the modelling of the transport processes occurring in ion sensors and generating the potentiometric response. Details of the solution of the NPP model (including the numerical methods used) are shown. The comparisons between NPP and the more idealized models are presented. The applicability of the model to describe the formation of diffusion potential in reference electrode, the lower detection limit of both ion-exchanger and neutral carrier electrodes and the effect of the complexation in the membrane are discussed. The model was applied for the description of both types of electrodes, i.e. with the inner filling solution and solidcontact electrodes. The NPP model allows the electrochemical methods other than potentiometry to be described. Application of this model in Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy is discussed and a possible use in chrono-potentiometry is indicated. By combining the NPP model with evolutionary algorithms, namely Hierarchical Genetic Strategy (HGS), a novel method allowing the facilitation of the design of ion sensors was created. It is described in detail in this thesis and its possible applications in the field of ion sensors are indicated. Finally, some interesting effects occurring in the ion sensors (i.e. overshot response and influence of anionic sites) as well as the possible applications of NPP in biochemistry are described.

Detection of Horizontal Two-Phase Flow Patterns Through a Neural Network Model

One of the main problems related to the transport and manipulation of multiphase fluids concerns the existence of characteristic flow patterns and its strong influence on important operation parameters. A good example of this occurs in gas-liquid chemical reactors in which maximum efficiencies can be achieved by maintaining a finely dispersed bubbly flow to maximize the total interfacial area. Thus, the ability to automatically detect flow patterns is of crucial importance, especially for the adequate operation of multiphase systems. This work describes the application of a neural model to process the signals delivered by a direct imaging probe to produce a diagnostic of the corresponding flow pattern. The neural model is constituted of six independent neural modules, each of which trained to detect one of the main horizontal flow patterns, and a last winner-take-all layer responsible for resolving when two or more patterns are simultaneously detected. Experimental signals representing different bubbly, intermittent, annular and stratified flow patterns were used to validate the neural model.

Creating an open-books implementation framework for a maintenance-related value-based life-cycle model

This study is a qualitative action research by its nature with elements of personal design in the form of a tangible model implementation framework construction. Utilized empirical data has been gathered via two questionnaires in relation to the arranged four workshop events with twelve individual participants. Five of them represented maintenance customers, three maintenance service providers and four equipment providers respectively. Further, there are two main research objectives in proportion to the two complementary focusing areas of this thesis. Firstly, the value-based life-cycle model, which first version has already been developed prior to this thesis, requires updating in order to increase its real-life applicability as an inter-firm decision-making tool in industrial maintenance. This first research objective is fulfilled by improving appearance, intelligibility and usability of the above-mentioned model. In addition, certain new features are also added. The workshop participants from the collaborating companies were reasonably pleased with made changes, although further attention will be required in future on the model’s intelligibility in particular as main results, charts and values were all reckoned as slightly hard to understand. Moreover, upgraded model’s appearance and added new features satisfied them the most. Secondly and more importantly, the premises of the model’s possible inter-firm implementation process need to be considered. This second research objective is delivered in two consecutive steps. At first, a bipartite open-books supported implementation framework is created and its different characteristics discussed in theory. Afterwards, the prerequisites and the pitfalls of increasing inter-organizational information transparency are studied in empirical context. One of the main findings was that the organizations are not yet prepared for network-wide information disclosure as dyadic collaboration was favored instead. However, they would be willing to share information bilaterally at least. Another major result was that the present state of companies’ cost accounting systems will definitely need implementation-wise enhancing in future since accurate and sufficiently detailed maintenance data is not available. Further, it will also be crucial to create supporting and mutually agreed network infrastructure. There are hardly any collaborative models, methods or tools currently in usage. Lastly, the essential questions about mutual trust and predominant purchasing strategies are cooperation-wise important. If inter-organizational activities are expanded, a more relational approach should be favored in this regard. Mutual trust was also recognized as a significant cooperation factor, but it is hard to measure in reality.

Scientific creativity and diversity of physical work environment: framework development

The aim of this research was to develop a framework to analyze how physical environment influences scientific creativity. Due to the relative novelty of this topic, there is still a gap in the unified method to study connection between physical environment and creativity. Therefore, in order to study this issue deeply, the qualitative method was used (interviews and qualitative questionnaire). Scientists (PhD students and senior researchers) of Graduate School of Management were interviewed to build the model and one expert interview was conducted to assess its validity. The model highlights several dimensions via which physical environment can influence scientific creativity: Comfort, Instruments and Diversity. Comfort and Instruments are considered to be related mostly to productivity, an initial requirement for creativity, while Diversity is the factor responsible for supporting all the stages of scientific creative process. Thus, creative physical environment is not one place by its nature, but an aggregative phenomenon. Due to two levels of analysis, the model is named the two-level model of creative physical environment.

The early activities of front end of innovation in oem companies using a new fei platform as a framework for renewal

The main goal of this study is to create a seamless chain of actions and more detailed structure to the front end of innovation to be able to increase the front end performance and finally to influence the renewal of companies. The main goal is achieved through by the new concept of an integrated model of early activities of FEI leading to a discovery of new elements of opportunities and the identification of new business and growth areas. The procedure offers one possible solution to a dynamic strategy formation process in innovation development cycle. In this study the front end of innovation is positioned between a strategy reviews and a concept creation with needed procedures, tools, and frameworks. The starting point of the study is that the origins of innovation are not well enough understood. The study focuses attention on the early activities of FEI. These first activities are conceptualized in order to find out successful innovation initiatives and strategic renewal agendas. A seamless chain of activities resulting in faster and more precise identification of opportunities and growth areas available on markets and inside companies is needed. Three case studies were conducted in order to study company views on available theory doctrine and to identify the first practical experiences and procedures in the beginning of the front end of innovation. Successful innovation requires focus on renewal in both internal and external directions and they should be carefully balanced for best results. Instead of inside-out mode of actions the studied companies have a strong outside-in thinking mode and they mainly co-develop their innovation initiatives in close proximity with customers i.e. successful companies are an integral part of customers business and success. Companies have tailor-made innovation processes combined their way of working linked to their business goals, and priorities of actual needs of transformation. The result of this study is a new modular FEI platform which can be configured by companies against their actual business needs and drivers. This platform includes new elements of FEI documenting an architecture presenting how the system components work together. The system is a conceptual approach from theories of emergent strategy formation, opportunity identification and creation, interpretation-analysis-experimentation triad and the present FEI theories. The platform includes new features compared to actual models of FEI. It allows managers to better understand the importance of FEI in the whole innovation development stage and FEI as a phase and procedure to discover and implement emergent strategy. An adaptable company rethinks and redirects strategy proactively from time to time. Different parts of the business model are changed to remove identified obstacles for growth and renewal which gives them avenues to find right reforms for renewal.