Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Integrating and evaluating neural word embeddings in information retrieval

Recent advances in neural language models have contributed new methods for learning distributed vector representations of words (also called word embeddings). Two such methods are the continuous bag-of-words model and the skipgram model. These methods have been shown to produce embeddings that capture higher order relationships between words that are highly effective in natural language processing tasks involving the use of word similarity and word analogy. Despite these promising results, there has been little analysis of the use of these word embeddings for retrieval. Motivated by these observations, in this paper, we set out to determine how these word embeddings can be used within a retrieval model and what the benefit might be. To this aim, we use neural word embeddings within the well known translation language model for information retrieval. This language model captures implicit semantic relations between the words in queries and those in relevant documents, thus producing more accurate estimations of document relevance. The word embeddings used to estimate neural language models produce translations that differ from previous translation language model approaches; differences that deliver improvements in retrieval effectiveness. The models are robust to choices made in building word embeddings and, even more so, our results show that embeddings do not even need to be produced from the same corpus being used for retrieval.

Systematic literature review: Research on Supported Playgroups

Overview This review of research conducted with supported playgroups was prepared for the Queensland Department of Education, Training and Employment (DETE). The report provides a synthesis of the research on the effectiveness of supported playgroups to improve child, parent, and community outcomes and to identify key features of supported playgroups that support effective outcomes. Supported playgroups are community-based services that provide a low intensity parenting intervention, through regular group sessions for parent-child dyads. Supported playgroups target vulnerable families who may benefit from parenting support. Supported playgroups have common goals to enhance children’s early learning and parental wellbeing. Method A search strategy was devised to identify research studies, nationally and internationally, that involved parent-child group programs for families with young children, delivered under the leadership of an employed facilitator. Academic databases and other data sources were explored for studies conducted in the period from 2004 to 2014. Summary descriptions of the research studies were developed; assessment of research methodologies was made; research evidence on the effectiveness of supported playgroups to improve child, parent, and community outcomes was identified; and comparative analyses of the implementation features of supported playgroups were completed. Findings The search strategy identified 34 research publications, reporting on 29 different programs. Twenty-six of the studies report on research conducted in Australia and eight reported on research conducted in other countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. Three clusters of playgroups were identified: Category 1 - Standard supported playgroups; Category 2 - Mobile playgroups; Category 3 – Supported playgroups with specific interventions. The research studies identified encompassed experimental and non-experimental research designs. The studies of standard supported playgroups and mobile playgroups were most often qualitative studies and modest in scale, in terms of the number of research participants. Experimental and quasi-experimental research designs characterised the studies identified in the category of supported playgroups with specific interventions. Overall, the research studies that were categorised as supported playgroups with specific interventions provided stronger evidence for effectiveness to improve parental behaviour in ways that are known to support children’s early developmental competence. Qualitative studies, including case studies and ethnographic research, documented important features of program delivery, such as the importance of facilitators’ interpersonal skills to positive experiences for families in the playgroups; as well as the important opportunities that the playgroups afforded to vulnerable families to reduce social isolation. Conclusions The potential for supported playgroups to improve a broad range of learning and psychosocial outcomes for children and parents was suggested by many of the research studies. However, the nature of the research designs employed means that it is not possible to conclude that there is strong evidence of the impact of supported playgroups on child, parent, and community outcomes. The qualitative studies did provide rich descriptions about the implementation processes of playgroups and also captured the variability in the delivery of the playgroups in terms of who participated, local contextual factors that impacted on the playgroup experiences, and the nature of the experiences of parents within the playgroups. Research methodologies need to be employed that address the limitations of the studies to date. This would provide more defensible evidence that supported playgroups have an impact over time on outcomes for children, families, and communities. Overall, this area of research remains relatively under-evaluated in terms of rigorous research designs. The identified research studies point to some promising research directions but do not yet enable strong claims to be made about the effectiveness of the standard playgroup or mobile playgroup models to impact on parenting outcomes. Data collected from interview and survey methodologies clearly identifies that supported playgroups are highly acceptable to families. Given the popularity of supported playgroups to engage families across diverse communities, and the reported high levels of satisfaction and benefits identified within many of the research studies, it is clear that the provision of supported playgroups is fulfilling an important community need by providing support to parents with young children. However, there is a need to strengthen the evidence base that supported playgroups are an effective early parenting intervention that improves outcomes for children, parents, and communities.

Regional development, commercialisation and target adoption of new integrated management techniques for Sheep industry

This Sheep CRC2 project is directed towards regional development of, support for, commercialisation and target adoption of, new integrated management techniques, which will lift productivity and better match product with market specification. The outputs and benefits will help support and improve the productivity and profitability of producers remaining in the industry, and support industry in the current move towards one in which both meat and wool will be joint drivers of industry productivity.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Management of multi-scale forest resource data over time

During the last decades there has been a global shift in forest management from a focus solely on timber management to ecosystem management that endorses all aspects of forest functions: ecological, economic and social. This has resulted in a shift in paradigm from sustained yield to sustained diversity of values, goods and benefits obtained at the same time, introducing new temporal and spatial scales into forest resource management. The purpose of the present dissertation was to develop methods that would enable spatial and temporal scales to be introduced into the storage, processing, access and utilization of forest resource data. The methods developed are based on a conceptual view of a forest as a hierarchically nested collection of objects that can have a dynamically changing set of attributes. The temporal aspect of the methods consists of lifetime management for the objects and their attributes and of a temporal succession linking the objects together. Development of the forest resource data processing method concentrated on the extensibility and configurability of the data content and model calculations, allowing for a diverse set of processing operations to be executed using the same framework. The contribution of this dissertation to the utilisation of multi-scale forest resource data lies in the development of a reference data generation method to support forest inventory methods in approaching single-tree resolution.

Suunnittelunäkemys metsäorganisaatioissa ja sen vaikutus tietojärjestelmälle asetettaviin vaatimuksiin

Department of Forest Resource Management in the University of Helsinki has in years 2004?2007 carried out so-called SIMO -project to develop a new generation planning system for forest management. Project parties are organisations doing most of Finnish forest planning in government, industry and private owned forests. Aim of this study was to find out the needs and requirements for new forest planning system and to clarify how parties see targets and processes in today's forest planning. Representatives responsible for forest planning in each organisation were interviewed one by one. According to study the stand-based system for managing and treating forests continues in the future. Because of variable data acquisition methods with different accuracy and sources, and development of single tree interpretation, more and more forest data is collected without field work. The benefits of using more specific forest data also calls for use of information units smaller than tree stand. In Finland the traditional way to arrange forest planning computation is divided in two elements. After updating the forest data to present situation every stand unit's growth is simulated with different alternative treatment schedule. After simulation, optimisation selects for every stand one treatment schedule so that the management program satisfies the owner's goals in the best possible way. This arrangement will be maintained in the future system. The parties' requirements to add multi-criteria problem solving, group decision support methods as well as heuristic and spatial optimisation into system make the programming work more challenging. Generally the new system is expected to be adjustable and transparent. Strict documentation and free source code helps to bring these expectations into effect. Variable growing models and treatment schedules with different source information, accuracy, methods and the speed of processing are supposed to work easily in system. Also possibilities to calibrate models regionally and to set local parameters changing in time are required. In future the forest planning system will be integrated in comprehensive data management systems together with geographic, economic and work supervision information. This requires a modular method of implementing the system and the use of a simple data transmission interface between modules and together with other systems. No major differences in parties' view of the systems requirements were noticed in this study. Rather the interviews completed the full picture from slightly different angles. In organisation the forest management is considered quite inflexible and it only draws the strategic lines. It does not yet have a role in operative activity, although the need and benefits of team level forest planning are admitted. Demands and opportunities of variable forest data, new planning goals and development of information technology are known. Party organisations want to keep on track with development. One example is the engagement in extensive SIMO-project which connects the whole field of forest planning in Finland.

Merestä Metsäksi - yhteistoimintaverkostohankkeen sosiaaliset ja taloudelliset vaikutukset

The object of this study was to find out which factors made landowners interested in From Sea to Forest co-operation network. Co-operation networks protect biodiversity across boundaries and among groups of landowners with different kind of protection contracts. The social effects of From Sea to Forest - project are studied by analyzing the experience of co-operation and trust. Furthermore the possibility to influence decision making when choosing the pilot areas and doing the contracts was surveyed. Economical effects are estimated for those landowners, who signed a protection contract for ten years. The study is part of The Finnish Forest Research Institute s Ecological considerations in landscape-level collaborative planning of private forestry project. The material of the study comprises 13 interviews done in January 2006; seven interviewed were landowners and six forest professionals. The interviews were transcripted and analyzed with Atlas.ti programme. The economical effects were estimated with MOTTI forest simulation programme. From Sea to Forest project interested the landowners for similar reasons: the voluntariness of participation, compensation, fixed-term contracts and the possibility to protect forests so that the proprietary right remains. It was possible to form four different groups of interviewed landowners according to trust: networkers , opportunists , carefuls and selfemployed . Only in the group of opportunists the project created so much trust that a significant increase of interest to participate in the project was noticed. In all the other groups the project didn t create remarkable trust, so trust didn t have an effect on landowners decisions to participate. Other factors, like compensation and voluntariness were decisive for their interest to participate. From Sea to Forest project wasn t a network based on landowners co-operation, the communication was directly with the project worker. The effects on landowners income by signing a ten year ´Natural value trading´ -contract was analyzed by comparing the protection income with predicted forestry income in case that the protection contract wouldn t have been agreed on. For two landowners there was no suggested forestry work within ten years, so their protection income might be an additional income, if they decided to log their forests later. For three landowners delayed thinning of the sapling stand would cause income losses in the future, if they decided to move to active forestry after ten years of protection. For eight landowners the effect of protection is positive to income if they moved to active forestry after the ten years protection period. This occurred, because the tree stand is now mature for final felling on behalf of its age, but ten more years of growth increase the net present value. Longer term protection might diminish the net present value. The protection was profitable because hectare specific forestry income grew compared to forestry cutting plan income.

The cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes

Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary care setting. The primary care professional refers the patient to a third party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the patient. This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of ERS in promoting physical activity compared with usual care in primary care setting. Methods A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ERS from a UK NHS perspective. The costs and outcomes of ERS were modelled over the patient's lifetime. Data were derived from a systematic review of the literature on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ERS, and on parameter inputs in the modelling framework. Outcomes were expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigated the impact of varying ERS cost and effectiveness assumptions. Sub-group analyses explored the cost-effectiveness of ERS in sedentary people with an underlying condition. Results Compared with usual care, the mean incremental lifetime cost per patient for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, generating a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for ERS at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary individuals without a diagnosed medical condition. There was a 51% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY and 88% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY. In sub-group analyses, cost per QALY for ERS in sedentary obese individuals was £14,618, and in sedentary hypertensives and sedentary individuals with depression the estimated cost per QALY was £12,834 and £8,414 respectively. Incremental lifetime costs and benefits associated with ERS were small, reflecting the preventative public health context of the intervention, with this resulting in estimates of cost-effectiveness that are sensitive to variations in the relative risk of becoming physically active and cost of ERS. Conclusions ERS is associated with modest increase in lifetime costs and benefits. The cost-effectiveness of ERS is highly sensitive to small changes in the effectiveness and cost of ERS and is subject to some significant uncertainty mainly due to limitations in the clinical effectiveness evidence base.

Kymijoen vaelluskalojen nousureittien avaamisen kustannusten ja hyötyjen arviointi

The objective of this thesis is to evaluate different means of increasing natural reproduction of migratory fish, especially salmon, in the river Kymijoki. The original stocks of migratory fish in Kymijoki were lost by the 1950s because of hydropower plants and worsened quality of water in the river. Nowadays the salmon stocks is based on hatchery-reared fish, even though there is significant potential of natural smolt production in the river. The main problem in the natural reproduction is that the migratory fish cannot ascend to the reproduction areas above the Korkeakoski and Koivukoski hydropower plants. In this thesis alternative projects which aim to open these ascencion routes and their costs and benefits are evaluated. The method used in the evaluation is social cost-benefit analysis. The alternative projects evaluated in this thesis consist of projects that aim to change the flow patterns between the eastern branches of Kymijoki and projects that involve building a fish ladder. Also different combinations of these projects are considered. The objective of this thesis is to find the project that is the most profitable to execute; this evaluation can be done in comparing the net present values of the projects. In addition to this, a sensitivity analysis will be made on the parameter values that are most uncertain. We compare the net present values of the projects with the net present values of hatchery-reared smolt releases, so we can evaluate, if the projects or the smolt releases are more socially profitable in the long term. The results of this thesis indicate that especially the projects that involve building a fish ladder next to the Korkeakoski hydropower plant are the most socially profitable. If this fish ladder would be built, the natural reproduction of salmon in the Kymijoki river could become so extensive, that hatchery-reared smolt releases could even be stopped. The results of the sensivity analysis indicate that the net present values of the projects depend especially on the initial smolt survival rate of wild salmon and the functioning of the potential fish ladder in Korkeakoski. Also the changes of other parameter values influence the results of the cost-benefit analysis, but not as significantly. When the net present values of the projects and the smolt releases are compared, the results depend on which period of time is selected to count the average catches of reared salmon. If the average of the last 5 years catches is used in counting the net benefits of smolt releases, all the alternative projects are more profitable than the releases. When the average of the last 10 years is used, only building of the fish ladder in Korkeakoski and all the project combinations are more profitable than the smolt releases.

Consumers' emotional judgement of materials durability and disposal

The literature demonstrates that understanding relating to the use of materials in product design has been investigated from both engineering and design perspectives. However, none of these studies have explored the consumers’ concepts of the materials; rather they have focused on participants’ discussions of material samples. Consumers’ emotional reactions to the materials themselves or the consumers’ reaction to the durability of the materials have not been previously explored in depth. This research has investigated these issues and has found that consumers have very specific concepts about materials. Furthermore, the combinations of consumer concepts that are likely to elicit an emotional judgement by the consumer have also been identified. It was found that consumers are conscious of the durability of their products and the materials that they are made from. This knowledge contributes to the support of environmentally conscious design, as well as user-centered design knowledge and practice. An understanding of the emotion consumers attribute to the effect wear and aging had on the materials’ physical appearance has been achieved. This understanding of consumers’ emotional reactions to materials can contribute not only to design considerations but to knowledge regarding the promotion of prolonged product-user relationships.

Rail power conditioner technology in Australian Heavy Haul Railway: A case study

Aurizon, Australia's largest freight railway operator, is investigating the use of Rail Power Conditioner (RPC) technology for load balancing, reactive power compensation and harmonic filtering. The new technology has the capability of replacing Static VAr Compensators (SVC) and Harmonic Filters, and is expected to have a significant impact on the overall costs of railway electrification. This paper presents the theoretical analysis of the real and reactive power flows in an RPC used to balance active powers in an existing V/V feeder station. This informed an RPC feasibility study undertaken at four existing Aurizon's feeder stations with V/V connected transformers.

Constructive deviance as a driver for performance in retail

A growing body of research is concerned with deviance in the workplace. While much research has explored negative forms of deviance, we examine constructive deviance: behaviour that deviates from salient norms and benefits the reference group. We empirically explore manifestations, determinants and performance outcomes of constructive deviance in standardised work processes. We do this through a mixed-methods study in bakery trading departments of an Australian retailer. We illustrate that constructive deviance occurs in these settings and show that some manifestations of constructive deviance improve organisational performance and pave the way for applying constructive deviance as a strategic tool in retail.

Public Demand for Safer Speeds: Identification of Interventions for Trial

Speeding is a major contributor to road injuries and fatalities and remains prevalent. Changing community perceptions about speeding is an important priority. Austroads commissioned research to identify a range of potential interventions for future trial and evaluation aimed at creating, increasing, and/or sustaining public demand for safer speeds. This project had three phases: a literature review; consultations with key stakeholders regarding intervention options (including feasibility, and likely benefits and costs of identified interventions); and providing research results, including recommendations for future phases of the program of work. The literature review led to the development of a draft Campaign Strategy targeting nine aims across three themes underpinning this research: 1) creating, 2) increasing, and 3) sustaining public demand for safer speeds on the road. Twenty-one stakeholders commented on the suitability and feasibility of, and likely barriers to, countermeasures within the draft Campaign Strategy and its applicability to the Australian and New Zealand context. There was overwhelming positive support for the proposed Campaign Strategy by the majority of respondents; many, noting that it addressed key misperceptions and complemented many existing approaches. A small number of respondents expressed some concerns with various aspects. Stakeholder feedback was incorporated into the final proposed Campaign Strategy to enhance its potential effectiveness. Wide diversity across jurisdictions makes the recommendation of individual interventions for specific areas problematic. Individual jurisdictions should consider a range of costs and benefits of the proposed Campaign Strategy to determine the likely feasibility from their unique perspective. Issues to be addressed when considering implementation of the proposed Campaign Strategy include speed limit setting policies, resourcing, messaging and advertising strategies, and political will associated with promoting safer speeds.

Chapter 1: Precarious creativity: Global media, local labor

In most parts of the world, screen media workers—actors, directors, gaffers, and makeup artists—consider Hollywood to be glamorous and aspirational. If given the opportunity to work on a major studio lot, many would make the move, believing the standards of professionalism are high and the history of accomplishment is renowned. Moreover, as a global leader, Hollywood offers the chance to rub shoulders with talented counterparts and network with an elite labor force that earns top-tier pay and benefits. Yet despite this reputation, veterans say the view from inside isn’t so rosy, that working conditions have been deteriorating since the 1990s if not earlier. This grim outlook is supported by industry statistics that show the number of good jobs has been shrinking as studios outsource production to Atlanta, London, and Budapest, among others...