Gestão do risco em mercados de energia eléctrica recorrendo ao VaR por simulação de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.

Do buzz ao marketing viral : um estudo

Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas/MBA.

Dimensionamento de um secador em leito fluidizado para secagem de cereais

O objectivo desta tese é dimensionar um secador em leito fluidizado para secagem de cereais, nomeadamente, secagem de sementes de trigo. Inicialmente determinaram-se as condições de hidrodinâmica (velocidade de fluidização, TDH, condições mínimas de “slugging”, expansão do leito, dimensionamento do distribuidor e queda de pressão). Com as condições de hidrodinâmica definidas, foi possível estimar as dimensões físicas do secador. Neste ponto, foram realizados estudos relativamente à cinética da secagem e à própria secagem. Foi também estudado o transporte pneumático das sementes. Deste modo, determinaram-se as velocidades necessárias ao transporte pneumático e respectivas quedas de pressão. Por fim, foi realizada uma análise custos para que se soubesse o custo deste sistema de secagem. O estudo da secagem foi feito para uma temperatura de operação de 50ºC, tendo a ressalva que no limite se poderia trabalhar com 60ºC. A velocidade de operação é de 2,43 m/s, a altura do leito fixo é de 0,4 m, a qual sofre uma expansão durante a fluidização, assumindo o valor de 0,79 m. O valor do TDH obtido foi de 1,97 m, que somado à expansão do leito permite obter uma altura total da coluna de 2,76 m. A altura do leito fixo permite retirar o valor do diâmetro que é de 0,52 m. Verifica-se que a altura do leito expandido é inferior à altura mínima de “slugging” (1,20 m), no entanto, a velocidade de operação é superior à velocidade mínima de “slugging” (1,13 m/s). Como só uma das condições mínimas é cumprida, existe a possibilidade da ocorrência de “slugging”. Finalmente, foi necessário dimensionar o distribuidor, que com o diâmetro de orifício de 3 mm, valor inferior ao da partícula (3,48 mm), permite a distruibuição do fluido de secagem na coluna através dos seus 3061 orifícios. O inicio do estudo da secagem centrou-se na determinação do tempo de secagem. Além das duas temperaturas atrás referidas, foram igualmente consideradas duas humidades iniciais para os cereais (21,33% e 18,91%). Temperaturas superiores traduzem-se em tempos de secagem inferiores, paralelamente, teores de humidade inicial inferiores indicam tempos menores. Para a temperatura de 50ºC, os tempos de secagem assumiram os valores de 2,8 horas para a 21,33% de humidade e 2,7 horas para 18,91% de humidade. Foram também tidas em conta três alturas do ano para a captação do ar de secagem, Verão e Inverno representando os extremos, e a Meia- Estação. Para estes três casos, foi possível verificar que a humidade específica do ar não apresenta alterações significativas entre a entrada no secador e a corrente de saída do mesmo equipamento, do mesmo modo que a temperatura de saída pouco difere da de entrada. Este desvio de cerca de 1% para as humidades e para as temperaturas é explicado pela ausência de humidade externa nas sementes e na pouca quantidade de humidade interna. Desta forma, estes desvios de 1% permitem a utilização de uma razão de reciclagem na ordem dos 100% sem que o comportamento da secagem se altere significativamente. O uso de 100% de reciclagem permite uma poupança energética de cerca de 98% no Inverno e na Meia-Estação e de cerca de 93% no Verão. Caso não fosse realizada reciclagem, seria necessário fornecer à corrente de ar cerca de 18,81 kW para elevar a sua temperatura de 20ºC para 50ºC (Meia-Estação), cerca de 24,67 kW para elevar a sua temperatura de 10ºC para 50ºC (Inverno) e na ordem dos 8,90 kW para elevar a sua temperatura dos 35ºC para 50ºC (Verão). No caso do transporte pneumático, existem duas linhas, uma horizontal e uma vertical, logo foi necessário estimar o valor da velocidade das partículas para estes dois casos. Na linha vertical, a velocidade da partícula é cerca de 25,03 m/s e cerca de 35,95 m/s na linha horizontal. O menor valor para a linha vertical prende-se com o facto de nesta zona ter que se vencer a força gravítica. Em ambos os circuitos a velocidade do fluido é cerca de 47,17 m/s. No interior da coluna, a velocidade do fluido tem o valor de 10,90 m/s e a velocidade das partículas é de 1,04 m/s. A queda de pressão total no sistema é cerca de 2408 Pa. A análise de custos ao sistema de secagem indicou que este sistema irá acarretar um custo total (fabrico mais transporte) de cerca de 153035€. Este sistema necessita de electricidade para funcionar, e esta irá acarretar um custo anual de cerca de 7951,4€. Embora este sistema de secagem apresente a possibilidade de se realizar uma razão de reciclagem na ordem dos 100% e também seja possível adaptar o mesmo para diferentes tipos de cereais, e até outros tipos de materiais, desde que possam ser fluidizados, o seu custo impede que a realização deste investimento não seja atractiva, especialmente tendo em consideração que se trata de uma instalação à escala piloto com uma capacidade de 45 kgs.

Programa de competências pessoais e sociais para adultos em exclusão social

Trabalho apresentado em XIII Congreso Internacional Galego-Portugués de Psicopedagoxía, Área 8 Interculturalidad, inclusión social y educación. Universidad da Coruña, 3 de Setembro de 2015.

Motivação, comunicação e liderança: caso da PSP portuguesa

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Occupational exposure to particulate matter in 2 Portuguese waste-sorting units

Objectives - This study intended to characterize work environment contamination by particles in 2 waste-sorting plants. Material and Methods - Particles were measured by portable direct-reading equipment. Besides mass concentration in different sizes, data related with the number of particles concentration were also obtained. Results - Both sorting units showed the same distribution concerning the 2 exposure metrics: particulate matter 5 (PM5) and particulate matter 10 (PM10) reached the highest levels and 0.3 μm was the fraction with a higher number of particles. Unit B showed higher (p < 0.05) levels for both exposure metrics. For instance, in unit B the PM10 size is 9-fold higher than in unit A. In unit A, particulate matter values obtained in pre-sorting and in the sequential sorting cabinet were higher without ventilation working. Conclusions - Workers from both waste-sorting plants are exposed to particles. Particle counting provided additional information that is of extreme value for analyzing the health effects of particles since higher values of particles concentration were obtained in the smallest fraction.

Ventilação não invasiva durante o exercício em pacientes com DPOC: revisão sistemática com meta-análise

Mestrado em Fisioterapia

Sleep, stress and compensatory behaviors in Australian nurses and midwives

OBJECTIVE: To describe sleep, stress and compensatory behaviors in nurses and midwives. METHODS: The study included 41 midwives and 21 nurses working in Australian hospitals between 2005 and 2009. Participation was voluntary. All participants recorded on a daily basis their work and sleep hours, levels of stress and exhaustion, caffeine intake and use of sleep aids for a month (1,736 days, 1,002 work shifts). RESULTS: Participants reported moderate to high levels of stress and exhaustion on 20-40% of work days; experienced sleep disruption on more than 50% of work days; struggled to remain awake on 27% of work days; and suffered extreme drowsiness or experienced a near accident while travelling home on 9% of workdays. Age, perceived sleep duration and work hours were significant predictors of caffeine intake. About 60% of participants reported using sleep aids (about 20% reported taking prescription medications and 44% of nurses and 9% of midwives reported alcohol use as a sleep aid at least once during the study). Stress and workdays were significant predictors of sedative use. Overall, 22% reported being indifferent or mildly dissatisfied with their job. CONCLUSIONS: Sleep problems, high levels of stress and exhaustion and low job satisfaction are prevalent among nurses and midwives. The use of alcohol and sleeping pills as sleep aids, and the use of caffeine to help maintain alertness is also common. Nurses and midwives may use caffeine to compensate for reduced sleep, especially on workdays, and sleeping pills to cope with their daily work-related stress.

Ecophysiology of Ruditapes decussatus

The physiological responses of the clam R. decussatus from the Ria Formosa, southern Portugal, were examined in relation to normoxia, hypoxia (11, 6, 3 and 1.2 kPa) and anoxia; acute elevation of temperature (at 20, 27 and 32 °C), and its effect on the resistance to air exposure (at 20, 28 and 35 °C); current velocity (0.6, 3, 8 17, 24 and 36 cm. s-1) and turbidity (10, 100 and 300 mg. l-1 dry weight of particulate matter), and the efficiency of this species in retaining particles of different size (at 10 and 100 mg. l-1); and to copper contamination considering both short-term acute exposure to high levels (0.1-10 mg Cu. l-1) and chronic environmental levels (0.01 mg Cu. l-1). Clearance rates, respiration rates, absorption efficiency and excretion rates were assessed through the physiological energetics in terms of the energy budget and scope for growth (SFG). Stress independent respiration rates (R) and clearance rates (CR) were observed in relation to hypoxia down to 12 kPa and 6 kPa, respectively. Anoxic rates were 3.6 % of normoxic rates. Scope for growth was greatly reduced under extreme hypoxia (14 % of SFG in normoxia). Respiration rate was temperature independent in the range 20-32 °C but the decline in clearance rate resulted in negative SFG at 32 °C. Gaping during air exposure and the maintenance of faster aerobic metabolism led to 100 % mortality in 20 hours at 35 °C, 4 days at 28 °C and 5 days at 20 °C. Low current velocities (≤ 8 cm. s-1) supported high clearance rates. Shear stresses ≥ 0.9 Pa induced sediment movement and disturbed the feeding processes resulting in decreased clearance rates (at 36 cm. s-1, is 10 % of maximum CR). The observed ability of jetting out depleted water at a different level than the one of the inhalant current results is an important adaptation of clams to the slow currents of sheltered environments. Ingestion at high seston concentrations (> 100 mg. l-1) is controled by reducing the amount filtered, lowering CR (to 30 % of CR at low seston loads) and producing pseudofeces. Observed efficient retention of particles (70-100 %) in the range 3 to 8 μm is beneficial when algal cells are diluted by fine silt particles as it is likely to occur in the clams natural environment. R. decussatus in the short term escaped the exposure to copper by valve closure and therefore acute tests are not applicable to adult clams of this species. At environmental levels chronic exposure to copper did not induce lethal effects during the exposure period (20 days), but scope for growth was reduced to c. 30 %, indicating sustained impairment of physiological functions. The sensitivity of the physiological energetics and the integrated scope for growth measurement in assessing stress effects caused by natural environmental factors was highlighted.

Non invasive ventilation during exercise in COPD patients: a systematic review with meta-analysis

COPD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, representing a major public health problem due to the high health and economic resource consumption. Pulmonary rehabilitation is a standard care recommendation for these patients, in order to control the symptoms and optimize the functional capacity, reducing health care costs associated with exacerbations and activity limitations and participation. However, in patients with severe COPD exercise performance can be difficult, due to extreme dyspnea, decreased muscle strength and fatigue. In addition, hypoxemia and dyspnea during efforts and daily activities may occur, limiting their quality of life. Thus, NIV have been used as adjunct to exercise, in order to improve exercise capacity in these patients. However, there is no consensus for this technique recommendation. Our objective was to verify whether the use of NIV during exercise is effective than exercise without NIV in dyspnea, walked distance, blood gases and health status in COPD patients, through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Cut-off point for WHOQOL-bref as a measure of quality of life of older adults

OBJECTIVE To propose a cut-off for the World Health Organization Quality of Life-Bref (WHOQOL-bref) as a predictor of quality of life in older adults. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 391 older adults registered in the Northwest Health District in Belo Horizonte, MG, Southeastern Brazil, between October 8, 2010 and May 23, 2011. The older adults’ quality of life was measured using the WHOQOL-bref. The analysis was rationalized by outlining two extreme and simultaneous groups according to perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health (quality of life good/satisfactory – good or very good self-reported quality of life and being satisfied or very satisfied with health – G5; and poor/very poor quality of life – poor or very poor self-reported quality of life and feeling dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with health – G6). A Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) was created to assess the diagnostic ability of different cut-off points of the WHOQOL-bref. RESULTS ROC curve analysis indicated a critical value 60 as the optimal cut-off point for assessing perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health. The area under the curve was 0.758, with a sensitivity of 76.8% and specificity of 63.8% for a cut-off of ≥ 60 for overall quality of life (G5) and sensitivity 95.0% and specificity of 54.4% for a cut-off of < 60 for overall quality of life (G6). CONCLUSIONS Diagnostic interpretation of the ROC curve revealed that cut-off < 60 for overall quality of life obtained excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value for tracking older adults with probable worse quality of life and dissatisfied with health.

Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques

Wind resource evaluation in two sites located in Portugal was performed using the mesoscale modelling system Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the wind resource analysis tool commonly used within the wind power industry, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) microscale model. Wind measurement campaigns were conducted in the selected sites, allowing for a comparison between in situ measurements and simulated wind, in terms of flow characteristics and energy yields estimates. Three different methodologies were tested, aiming to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of these methodologies for wind resource estimation. In the first methodology the mesoscale model acts like “virtual” wind measuring stations, where wind data was computed by WRF for both sites and inserted directly as input in WAsP. In the second approach, the same procedure was followed but here the terrain influences induced by the mesoscale model low resolution terrain data were removed from the simulated wind data. In the third methodology, the simulated wind data is extracted at the top of the planetary boundary layer height for both sites, aiming to assess if the use of geostrophic winds (which, by definition, are not influenced by the local terrain) can bring any improvement in the models performance. The obtained results for the abovementioned methodologies were compared with those resulting from in situ measurements, in terms of mean wind speed, Weibull probability density function parameters and production estimates, considering the installation of one wind turbine in each site. Results showed that the second tested approach is the one that produces values closest to the measured ones, and fairly acceptable deviations were found using this coupling technique in terms of estimated annual production. However, mesoscale output should not be used directly in wind farm sitting projects, mainly due to the mesoscale model terrain data poor resolution. Instead, the use of mesoscale output in microscale models should be seen as a valid alternative to in situ data mainly for preliminary wind resource assessments, although the application of mesoscale and microscale coupling in areas with complex topography should be done with extreme caution.

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

Developing persuasive interfaces

MSCC Dissertation in Computer Engineering