Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Promoting rule compliance in daily-life: Evidence from a randomized field experiment in the public libraries of Barcelona

We study how to promote compliance with rules in everyday situations. Having access to unique data on the universe of users of all public libraries inBarcelona, we test the effect of sending email messages with dierent contents.We find that users return their items earlier if asked to do so in a simple email.Emails reminding users of the penalties associated with late returns are more effective than emails with only a generic reminder. We find differential treatmenteffects by user types. The characteristics we analyze are previous compliance,gender, age, and nationality.

The impact of gender composition on team performance and decision-making: Evidence from the field

We investigate whether the gender composition of teams affect theireconomic performance. We study a large business game, played in groups ofthree, where each group takes the role of a general manager. There are twoparallel competitions, one involving undergraduates and the other involvingMBAs. Our analysis shows that teams formed by three women aresignificantly outperformed by any other gender combination, both at theundergraduate and MBA levels. Looking across the performancedistribution, we find that for undergraduates, three women teams areoutperformed throughout, but by as much as 10pp at the bottom and by only1pp at the top. For MBAs, at the top, the best performing group is two menand one woman. The differences in performance are explained bydifferences in decision-making. We observe that three women teams are lessaggressive in their pricing strategies, invest less in R&D, and invest more insocial sustainability initiatives, than any other gender combination teams.Finally, we find support for the hypothesis that it is poor work dynamicsamong the three women teams that drives the results.

On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long arguedthat excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there islittle empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in thisway. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence ofmoves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward inductionprovides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. Weconduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data theincumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forwardinduction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicatethat players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without havingto pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not driveout this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, atheoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Dispersion of natural arsenic in the Malcantone watershed, Southern Switzerland: field evidence for repeated sorption-desorption and oxidation-reduction processes

In recent years, elevated arsenic concentrations have been found in waters and soils of many, countries, often resulting in a health threat for the local population. Switzerland is not an exception and this paper deals with the release and subsequent fate of arsenic in a 200-km(2) mountainous watershed, characterized by crystalline silicate rocks (gneisses, schists, amphibolites) that contain abundant As-bearing sulfide ore deposits, some of which have been mined for iron and gold in the past. Using analytical methods common for mineralogical, ground water and soil studies (XRD, XRF, XAS-XANES and -EXAFS, electron microprobe, extraction, ICP, AAS with hydride generator, ion chromatography), seven different field situations and related dispersion processes of natural arsenic have been studied: (1) release by rock weathering, (2) transport and deposition by water and ice; (3) release of As to the ground and surface water due to increasing pH; (4) accumulation in humic soil horizons; (5) remobilization by reduction in water-saturated soils and stagnant ground waters; (6) remobilization by using P-rich fertilizers or dung and (7) oxidation, precipitation and dilution in surface waters. Comparison of the results with experimental adsorption studies and speciation diagrams from the literature allows us to reconstruct and identify the typical behavior of arsenic in a natural environment under temperate climatic conditions. The main parameters identified are: (a) once liberated from the primary minerals, sorption processes on Fe-oxy-hydroxides dominate over Al-phases, such as Al-hydroxides or clay minerals and limit the As concentrations in the spring and well waters between 20 and 300 mug/l. (b) Precipitation as secondary minerals is limited to the weathering domain, where the As concentrations are still high and not yet too diluted by rain and soils waters. (c) Although neutral and alkaline pH conditions clearly increase the mobility of As, the main factor to mobilize As is a low redox potential (Eh close or below 0 mV), which favors the dissolution of the Fe-oxy-hydroxides on which the As is sorbed. (d) X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) of As in water-logged humic forest soils indicates that the reduction to As III only occurs at the solid-water interface and that the solid contains As as As V (e) A and Bh horizons of humic cambisols can effectively capture As when As-rich waters flow through them. Complex spatial and temporal variation of the various parameters in a watershed results in repeated mobilization and immobilization of As, which continuously transports As from the upper to the lower part of a watershed and ultimately to the ocean. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The V-region disease hypothesis: evidence from autoimmune encephalomyelitis.

Experimental allergic encephalomyelitis has been shown to have an immunological basis. In fact, the disease can be induced by T cells specific for myelin basic protein, a molecule found in abundance in the central nervous system. In this article, Ellen Heber-Katz and Hans Acha-Orbea discuss the T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoire of the encephalitogenic T-cell response, and show that a limited V gene pool, in fact a single V beta and two V alpha families, are being used by the PL/J and B10.PL mice and by every rat strain examined, even though the antigenic determinants and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules are different in all cases. This extraordinary finding suggests that the TCR is involved in encephalitogenicity in a way that not only involves the recognition of antigen in association with MHC, but also as an effector molecule that results in encephalitis. If this is true, it implies that TCRs, in general, play more than one role in mammalian physiology.

When are layoffs acceptable? Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Many authors have discussed a decline in internal labor markets and an apparent shift to a new employment contract, characterized by less commitment between employer and employee and more portable skills. These discussions occur without much evidence on what employment contract employees currently feel is fair. We perfomed quasi-experimental surveys to study when employees in the U.S. andCanada feel that layoffs are fair.Layoffs were perceived as more fair if they were due to lower product demand than if the result of employee suggestions. This result appears to be solely due to norms of reciprocity (companiesshould not punish employees for their efforts), rather than norms of sharing rents, as new technology was also considered a justification for layoffs.Consistent with theories of distributive and procedural equity, layoffs were perceived as more fair if the CEO voluntarily shared the pain. CEO bonuses due to layoffs lowered their reported fairness only slightly.Respondents in Silicon Valley were not more accepting of layoffsthan were those in Canada on average, although the justificationsconsidered valid differed slightly.

Mitochondrial uncoupling as a regulator of life-history trajectories in birds: an experimental study in the zebra finch.

Mitochondria have a fundamental role in the transduction of energy from food into ATP. The coupling between food oxidation and ATP production is never perfect, but may nevertheless be of evolutionary significance. The 'uncoupling to survive' hypothesis suggests that 'mild' mitochondrial uncoupling evolved as a protective mechanism against the excessive production of damaging reactive oxygen species (ROS). Because resource allocation and ROS production are thought to shape animal life histories, alternative life-history trajectories might be driven by individual variation in the degree of mitochondrial uncoupling. We tested this hypothesis in a small bird species, the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata), by treating adults with the artificial mitochondrial uncoupler 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP) over a 32-month period. In agreement with our expectations, the uncoupling treatment increased metabolic rate. However, we found no evidence that treated birds enjoyed lower oxidative stress levels or greater survival rates, in contrast to previous results in other taxa. In vitro experiments revealed lower sensitivity of ROS production to DNP in mitochondria isolated from skeletal muscles of zebra finch than mouse. In addition, we found significant reductions in the number of eggs laid and in the inflammatory immune response in treated birds. Altogether, our data suggest that the 'uncoupling to survive' hypothesis may not be applicable for zebra finches, presumably because of lower effects of mitochondrial uncoupling on mitochondrial ROS production in birds than in mammals. Nevertheless, mitochondrial uncoupling appeared to be a potential life-history regulator of traits such as fecundity and immunity at adulthood, even with food supplied ad libitum.

Measurements of seismic attenuation and transient fluid pressure in partially saturated Berea sandstone: Evidence of fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale

A novel laboratory technique is proposed to investigate wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale as a mechanism for seismic attenuation in partially saturated rocks. This technique combines measurements of seismic attenuation in the frequency range from 1 to 100?Hz with measurements of transient fluid pressure as a response of a step stress applied on top of the sample. We used a Berea sandstone sample partially saturated with water. The laboratory results suggest that wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale is dominant in partially saturated samples. A 3-D numerical model representing the sample was used to verify the experimental results. Biot's equations of consolidation were solved with the finite-element method. Wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale was the only attenuation mechanism accounted for in the numerical solution. The numerically calculated transient fluid pressure reproduced the laboratory data. Moreover, the numerically calculated attenuation, superposed to the frequency-independent matrix anelasticity, reproduced the attenuation measured in the laboratory in the partially saturated sample. This experimental?numerical fit demonstrates that wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale and matrix anelasticity are the dominant mechanisms for seismic attenuation in partially saturated Berea sandstone.

Teaching evidence-based management with a focus on producing local evidence

We present an approach to teaching evidence-based management (EBMgt) that trains future managers how to produce local evidence. Local evidence is causally interpretable data, collected on-site in companies to address a specific business problem. Our teaching method is a variant of problem-based learning, a method originally developed to teach evidence-based medicine. Following this method, students learn an evidence-based problem-solving cycle for addressing actual business cases. Executing this cycle, students use and produce scientific evidence through literature searches and the design of local, experimental tests of causal hypotheses. We argue the value of teaching EBMgt with a focus on producing local evidence, how it can be taught, and what can be taught. We conclude by outlining our contribution to the literature on teaching EBMgt and by discussing limitations of our approach.

Evidence for a sodium-induced activation of central neurogenic mechanisms in one-kidney, one-clip renal hypertensive rats

The mechanisms sustaining high blood pressure in conscious one-kidney, one-clip Goldblatt rats were evaluated with the use of SK&F 64139, a phenylethanolamine N-methyltransferase inhibitor capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier and of captopril, an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The rats were studied 3 weeks after left renal artery clipping and contralateral nephrectomy. During the developmental phase of hypertension, two groups of rats were maintained on a regular salt (RNa) intake, whereas two other groups were given a low salt (LNa) diet. On the day of the experiment, the base-line mean blood pressure measured in the LNa rats (177.4 +/- 5.2 mm Hg, mean +/- S.E., n = 15) was similar to that measured in the RNa rats (178.7 +/- 5.4 mm Hg, n = 16). SK&F 64139 (12.5 mg p.o.) induced a significantly more pronounced (P less than .001) blood pressure decrease in the RNa rats (-25.6 +/- 3.6 mm Hg, n = 8) than in the LNa rats (-4.3 +/- 3.3 mm Hg, n = 7) during a 90-min observation period. On the other hand, captopril (10 mg p.o.) normalized blood pressure in LNa rats (n = 8), but produced only a 13.4 mm Hg blood pressure drop in RNa rats (n = 8). RNa rats treated with SK&F 64139 were found to have decreased phenylethanolamine N-methyltransferase activity by an average 80% in selected brain stem nuclei when compared with nontreated rats. No significant difference in plasma catecholamine levels was found between the RNa and LNa rats. These results suggest that, in this experimental model of hypertension, the sodium ion might increase the model of hypertension, the sodium ion might increase the vasoconstrictor contribution of the sympathetic system via a centrally mediated neurogenic mechanism while at the same time it decreases the renin-dependency of the high blood pressure.

Evidence of a critical time in constrained Kinetic Ising models

We study the relaxational dynamics of the one-spin facilitated Ising model introduced by Fredrickson and Andersen. We show the existence of a critical time which separates an initial regime in which the relaxation is exponentially fast and aging is absent from a regime in which relaxation becomes slow and aging effects are present. The presence of this fast exponential process and its associated critical time is in agreement with some recent experimental results on fragile glasses.

Chemisorption of atomic aluminum on Si(111): Evidence for an adsorbate-induced relaxation based on ab initio cluster-model calculations

Interaction models of atomic Al with Si4H9, Si4H7, and Si6H9 clusters have been studied to simulate Al chemisorption on the Si(111) surface in the atop, fourfold atop, and open sites. Calculations were carried out using nonempirical pseudopotentials in the framework of the ab initio Hartree-Fock procedure. Equilibrium bond distances, binding energies for adsorption, and vibrational frequencies of the adatoms are calculated. Several basis sets were used in order to show the importance of polarization effects, especially in the binding energies. Final results show the importance of considering adatom-induced relaxation effects to specify the order of energy stabilities for the three different sites, the fourfold atop site being the preferred one, in agreement with experimental findings.

Macular and retinal dysfunction of unknown origin in adults with normal fundi: evidence for an autoimmune pathophysiology.

Here we report the discovery of and phenotypic characterization of a retinal disorder of unknown origin in adults using clinical, electrophysiological and psychophysical techniques, and to seek the presence of circulating retinal autoantibodies in the sera of these patients. Sixteen patients were identified with progressive bilateral visual loss over a period of months. Ten of the patients were male, and the average age was 55.3 years (range from 43 to 76 years). Known causes such as carcinoma-associated retinopathy, acute zonal occult outer retinopathy and hereditary cone dystrophy appeared unlikely. Investigations included electrophysiology, fundus autofluorescence imaging and psychophysical tests. The sera of these patients were analyzed with indirect immunocytochemistry and Western immunoblot analysis on murine (BALB/c) retinal tissue for the presence of retinal autoantibodies. Bilateral visual loss and photophobia progressed over a period of months to years (average 28.7 months, range 3-67) and subsequently stabilized. No abnormality was observed by biomicroscopy, angiography or autofluorescence imaging. Electrophysiology indicated predominant cone-system dysfunction, either macular or generalized, and post-phototransduction involvement in 9 patients (56%). Photopic and scotopic visual fields and dark adaptation kinetics showed both cone and rod system involvement in all cases. Heterogeneous immunohistochemical staining patterns were seen with the sera of these patients as compared with controls. A majority of the affected patients (9/15) stained with an antinuclear pattern. The retinal autoantibodies from the sera of most patients reacted with the retinal proteins of molecular weight between 34 and 40 kDa. The aetiology of this distinctive retinal disorder therefore appears to be mediated through an autoimmune mechanism.