Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

IN DUBIO PRO NATURA? A Philosophical Analysis of the Precautionary Principle in Environmental and Health Risk Governance

In this book, I apply a philosophical approach to study the precautionary principle in environmental (and health) risk decision-making. The principle says that unacceptable environmental and health risks should be anticipated, and they ought to be forestalled before the damage comes to fruition even if scientific understanding of the risks is inadequate. The study consists of introductory chapters, summary and seven original publications which aim at explicating the principle, critically analysing the debate on the principle, and constructing a basis for the well-founded use of the principle. Papers I-V present the main thesis of this research. In the two last papers, the discussion is widened to new directions. The starting question is how well the currently embraced precautionary principle stands up to critical philosophical scrutiny. The approach employed is analytical: mainly conceptual, argumentative and ethical. The study draws upon Anglo-American style philosophy on the one hand, and upon sources of law as well as concrete cases and decision-making practices at the European Union level and in its member countries on the other. The framework is environmental (and health) risk governance, including the related law and policy. The main thesis of this study is that the debate on the precautionary principle needs to be shifted from the question of whether the principle (or its weak or strong interpretation) is well-grounded in general to questions about the theoretical plausibility and ethical and socio-political justifiability of specific understandings of the principle. The real picture of the precautionary principle is more complex than that found (i.e. presumed) in much of the current academic, political and public debate surrounding it. While certain presumptions and interpretations of the principle are found to be sound, others are theoretically flawed or include serious practical problems. The analysis discloses conceptual and ethical presumptions and elementary understandings of the precautionary principle, critically assesses current practices invoked in the name of the precautionary principle and public participation, and seeks to build bridges between precaution, engagement and philosophical ethics. Hence, it is intended to provide a sound basis upon which subsequent academic scrutiny can build.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Environmental policy instruments concerning industrial end-use energy efficiency

Energy efficiency and saving energy are the main question marks when thinking of reducing carbon dioxide emissions or cutting costs. The objective of thesis is to evaluate policy instruments concerning end-use energy efficiency of heavy industry in European Union. These policy instruments may be divided in various ways, but in this thesis the division is to administrative, financial, informative and voluntary instruments. Administrative instruments introduced in this thesis are Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control, Directive on Energy End-use Efficiency and Energy Services, and Climate and Energy Package. Financial means include energy and emission taxation, EU Emission Trading Scheme and diverse support systems. Informative instruments consist of horizontal BAT Reference Document for Energy Efficiency, as well as substantial EU documents including Green Paper on Energy Efficiency, Action Plan for Energy Efficiency and An Energy Policy for Europe. And finally, voluntary instruments include environmental managements systems like ISO 14001 and EMAS, energy auditing and benchmarking. The efficiency of different policy instruments vary quite a lot. Informative instruments lack the commitment from industry and are thus almost ineffective, contrary to EU Emission Trading Scheme, which is said to be the solution to climate problems. The efficiency of administrative means can be placed between those mentioned and voluntary instruments are still quite fresh to be examined fruitfully. However, each instrument has their potential and challenges. Cases from corporate world strengthen the results from theoretical part. Cases were written mainly on the basis of interviews. The interviewees praised the energy efficiency contract of Finnish industry, but the EU ETS takes the leading role of policy instruments. However, for industry the reductions do not come easily.

Deinking sludge utilization possibilities: technical, economic, and environmental assessments

This report introduces the ENPI project called “EMIR - Exploitation of Municipal and Industrial Residues” which was executed in a co-operation between Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), Saint Petersburg State University of Economics (SPbSUE), Saint Petersburg State Technical University of Plant Polymers (SPbSTUPP) and industrial partners from both Leningrad Region (LR), Russia and Finland. The main targets of the research were to identify the possibilities for deinking sludge management scenarios in co-operation with partner companies, to compare the sustainability of the alternatives, and to provide recommendations for the companies in the Leningrad Region on how to best manage deinking sludge. During the literature review, 24 deinking sludge utilization possibilities were identified, the majority falling under material recovery. Furthermore, 11 potential utilizers of deinking sludge were found within the search area determined by the transportation cost. Each potential utilizer was directly contacted in order to establish cooperation for deinking sludge utilization. Finally, four companies, namely, “Finnsementti” – a cement plant in Finland (S1), “St.Gobian Weber” – a light-weight aggregate plant in Finland (S2), “LSR-Cement” – a cement plant in LR (S3), and “Rockwool” – a stone wool plant in LR (S4) were seen as the most promising partners and were included in the economic and environmental assessments. Economic assessment using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) indicated that substitution of heavy fuel oil with dry deinking sludge in S2 was the most feasible option with a benefit/cost ratio (BCR) of 3.6 when all the sludge was utilized. At the same time, the use of 15% of the total sludge amount (the amount that could potentially be treated in the scenario) resulted in a BCR of only 0.16. The use of dry deinking sludge in the production of cement (S3) is a slightly more feasible option with a BCR of 1.1. The use of sludge in stone wool production is feasible only when all the deinking sludge is used and burned in an existing incineration plant. The least economically feasible utilization possibility is the use of sludge in cement production in Finland (S1) due to the high gate fee charged. Environmental assessment was performed applying internationally recognized life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies: ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. The results of a consequential LCA stated that only S1 and S2 lead to a reduction of all environmental impacts within the impact categories chosen compared to the baseline scenario where deinking sludge is landfilled. Considering S1, the largest reduction of 13% was achieved for the global warming potential (GWP), whereas for S2, the largest decrease of abiotic depletion potential (ADP) was by 1.7%, the eutrophication potential (EP) by 1.8%, and a GWP of 2.1% was documented. In S3, the most notable increase of ADP and acidification potential (AP) by 2.6 and 1.5% was indicated, while the GWP was reduced by 12%, the largest out of all the impact categories. In S4, ADP and AP increased by 2.3 and 2.1% respectively, whereas ODP was reduced by 25%. During LCA, it was noticed that substitution of fuels causes a greater reduction of environmental impact (S1 and S2) than substitution of raw materials (S3 and S4). Despite a number of economically and environmentally acceptable deinking sludge utilization methods being assessed in the research, evaluation of bottlenecks and communications with companies’ representatives uncovered the fact that the availability of the raw materials consumed, and the risks associated with technological problems resulting from the sludge utilization, limited the willingness of industrial partners to start deinking sludge utilization. The research results are of high value for decision-makers at already existing paper mills since the result provide insights regarding alternatives to the deinking sludge utilization possibilities already applied. Thus, the research results support the maximum economic and environmental value recovery from waste paper utilization.

Paper industry in Kerala: An evaluation of labour absorption,capacity utilisation, and environmental pollution

Paper industry is one of the oldest and largest industries in Kerala. Despite the developments in the industry in terms of growth in output , value added and employment generation, many of the units face grave problems. Irrespective of the size of the plant, the problems of the industry are general in nature. The problems are galore in the supply, not the demand side. Amomg the problems, the important ones are: raw material scarcity, energy deficiency and obsolete technology. Further, the industry is subject to many controls by the Government — price control, product control and raw materials control — which result in the dwindling of profits and investments. Equally important are the reservations against the industry for polluting the environment byeffluent disposal on the one hand and affecting ecological balance by depleting the existing forest on the other. Apart from the large, medium and small pulp and paper mills, there are about 30 hand made paper units in Kerala which can be categorised as village and cottage industry. Almost all of these units began at the initiative and support of Khadi and Village Industries Commission. The primary purpose of these units is employment generation, and not profit making. Currently many of these units are in the red and many others are on the verge of closure. Therefore, a separate analysis of the growth performance, and problems and prospects of the hand made paper industry has also been attempted. It is analysed separately because of the very small size of the hand made paper units

“Assessment of Heavy Metals in the Environmental Compartments of the Central and Northern Coast of Kerala, India”

The nearshore marine ecosystem is a dynamic environment impacted by many activities, especially the coastal waters and sediments contiguous to major urban areas. Although heavy metals are natural constituents of the marine environment, inputs are considered to be conservative pollutants and are potentially toxic, accumulate in the sediment, are bioconcentrated by organisms and may cause health problems to humans via the food chain. A variety of metals in trace amounts are essential for biological processes in all organisms, but excessive levels can be detrimental by acting as enzyme inhibitors. Discharge of industrial wastewater, agriculture runoff and untreated sewage pose a particularly serious threat to the coastal environment of Kerala, but there is a dearth of studies in documenting the contaminant metals. This study aimed principally to assess such contamination by examining the results of heavy metal (Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Zn, Cd and Hg) analysis in seawater, sediment and benthic biota from a survey of five transects along the central and northern coast of Kerala in 2008 covering a 10.0 km stretch of near shore environment in each transect. Trophic transfer of metal contaminants from aquatic invertebrates to its predators was also assessed, by employing a suitable benthic food chain model in order to understand which all metals are undergoing biotransference (transfer of metals from a food source to consumer).The study of present contamination levels will be useful for potential environmental remediation and ecosystem restoration at contaminated sites and provides a scientific basis for standards and protective measures for the coastal waters and sediments. The usefulness of biomonitor proposed in this study would allow identification of different bioavailable metals as well as provide an assessment of the magnitude of metal contamination in the coastal marine milieu. The increments in concentration of certain metals between the predator and prey discerned through benthic food chain can be interpreted as evidence of biotransference.

Ecological Foot Print Analysis-A Sustainable Environmental Management Tool for Kochi City

Kochi, the commercial capital of Kerala and the second most important city next to Mumbai on the Western coast of India, is a land having a wide variety of residential environments. The present pattern of the city can be classified as that of haphazard growth with typical problems characteristics of unplanned urban development. This trend can be ascribed to rapid population growth, our changing lifestyles, food habits, and change in living standards, institutional weaknesses, improper choice of technology and public apathy. Ecological footprint analysis (EFA) is a quantitative tool that represents the ecological load imposed on the earth by humans in spatial terms. This paper analyses the scope of EFA as a sustainable environmental management tool for Kochi City

Knowledge-based modelling and simulation of operational problems of microbiological origin in wastewater treatment plants

The activated sludge and anaerobic digestion processes have been modelled in widely accepted models. Nevertheless, these models still have limitations when describing operational problems of microbiological origin. The aim of this thesis is to develop a knowledge-based model to simulate risk of plant-wide operational problems of microbiological origin.For the risk model heuristic knowledge from experts and literature was implemented in a rule-based system. Using fuzzy logic, the system can infer a risk index for the main operational problems of microbiological origin (i.e. filamentous bulking, biological foaming, rising sludge and deflocculation). To show the results of the risk model, it was implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Models. This allowed to study the risk model's response in different scenarios and control strategies. The risk model has shown to be really useful providing a third criterion to evaluate control strategies apart from the economical and environmental criteria.

Geostatistics for constrained variables: positive data, compositions and probabilities. Applications to environmental hazard monitoring

Aquesta tesi estudia com estimar la distribució de les variables regionalitzades l'espai mostral i l'escala de les quals admeten una estructura d'espai Euclidià. Apliquem el principi del treball en coordenades: triem una base ortonormal, fem estadística sobre les coordenades de les dades, i apliquem els output a la base per tal de recuperar un resultat en el mateix espai original. Aplicant-ho a les variables regionalitzades, obtenim una aproximació única consistent, que generalitza les conegudes propietats de les tècniques de kriging a diversos espais mostrals: dades reals, positives o composicionals (vectors de components positives amb suma constant) són tractades com casos particulars. D'aquesta manera, es generalitza la geostadística lineal, i s'ofereix solucions a coneguts problemes de la no-lineal, tot adaptant la mesura i els criteris de representativitat (i.e., mitjanes) a les dades tractades. L'estimador per a dades positives coincideix amb una mitjana geomètrica ponderada, equivalent a l'estimació de la mediana, sense cap dels problemes del clàssic kriging lognormal. El cas composicional ofereix solucions equivalents, però a més permet estimar vectors de probabilitat multinomial. Amb una aproximació bayesiana preliminar, el kriging de composicions esdevé també una alternativa consistent al kriging indicador. Aquesta tècnica s'empra per estimar funcions de probabilitat de variables qualsevol, malgrat que sovint ofereix estimacions negatives, cosa que s'evita amb l'alternativa proposada. La utilitat d'aquest conjunt de tècniques es comprova estudiant la contaminació per amoníac a una estació de control automàtic de la qualitat de l'aigua de la conca de la Tordera, i es conclou que només fent servir les tècniques proposades hom pot detectar en quins instants l'amoni es transforma en amoníac en una concentració superior a la legalment permesa.

Airline industry problems and prospects

Presentation Outline -The elements of the jig-saw puzzle -Trends in financial results -Industry charcateristics and problems -Major constraints -Trends in load factors -Financing? -Traffic growth prospects -Productivity is the key -The environmental challenge -Summary of main points

A review of palaeoclimates and palaeoenvironments in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5000 years BP: setting the environmental background for the evolution of human civilisation

The southern Levant has a long history of human habitation and it has been previously suggested that climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene stimulated changes in human behaviour and society. In order to evaluate such linkages, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of the climate record. We have conducted an extensive and up-to-date review of terrestrial and marine climatic conditions in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean during the last 25,000 years. We firstly present data from general circulation models (GCMs) simulating the climate for the last glacial maximum (LGM), and evaluate the output of the model by reference to geological climate proxy data. We consider the types of climate data available from different environments and proxies and then present the spatial climatic "picture" for key climatic events. This exercise suggests that the major Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations of the last 25,000 years are recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levantine region. However, this review also highlights problems and inadequacies with the existing data. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mediterranean ecosystems: problems and tools for conservation

Mediterranean ecosystems rival tropical ecosystems in terms of plant biodiversity. The Mediterranean Basin (MB) itself hosts 25 000 plant species, half of which are endemic. This rich biodiversity and the complex biogeographical and political issues make conservation a difficult task in the region. Species, habitat, ecosystem and landscape approaches have been used to identify conservation targets at various scales: ie, European, national, regional and local. Conservation decisions require adequate information at the species, community and habitat level. Nevertheless and despite recent improvements/efforts, this information is still incomplete, fragmented and varies from one country to another. This paper reviews the biogeographic data, the problems arising from current conservation efforts and methods for the conservation assessment and prioritization using GIS. GIS has an important role to play for managing spatial and attribute information on the ecosystems of the MB and to facilitate interactions with existing databases. Where limited information is available it can be used for prediction when directly or indirectly linked to externally built models. As well as being a predictive tool today GIS incorporate spatial techniques which can improve the level of information such as fuzzy logic, geostatistics, or provide insight about landscape changes such as 3D visualization. Where there are limited resources it can assist with identifying sites of conservation priority or the resolution of environmental conflicts (scenario building). Although not a panacea, GIS is an invaluable tool for improving the understanding of Mediterranean ecosystems and their dynamics and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

Environmental assessment and the built environment : a highway engineer's perspective

This paper is an engineer's appreciation of environmental assessment with particular reference to highway development. While scheme-related Environmental Assessment for individual development may identify particular potential impacts, and may avoid or minimise some of the problems, in many cases it may be too late to take such actions. Ideally, Environmental Assessment should commence at the Strategic Level to cover policies, plan and programmes, and the scheme-related Environmental Assessments for individual projects should supplement those in the framework of Strategic Level. The utimate target is to assess the policy for their contribution to effecting sustainable development. Whole Life Environmental Impacts should be considered. These are the full impact consideration from planning, design and choice of materials, construction, operation and finally decommission. Most of the Environmental Assessments have not included the Whole Life Environmental Impacts. There is only limited monitoring in the operation stage after the construction of the scheme is complete, therefore, subsequent Environmental Assessments cannot benefit from the feedback of the scheme. No development should cost the Earth, hence Environmental Assessments have to be carried out thoroughly to serve as one of the instruments to meet the need of sustainable development.