How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

Measuring intangibles' productivity. Empirical evidence from Spanish firms

As companies and shareholders begin to note the potential repercussions of intangible assets uponbusiness results, the inability of the traditional financial statement model to reflect these new waysof creating business value has become evident. Companies have widely adopted newmanagement tools, covering in this way the inability of the traditional financial statement model toreflect these new ways of creating business value.However, there are few prior studies measuring on a quantifiable manner the level of productivityunexplained in the financial statements. In this study, we measure the effect of intangible assets onproductivity using data from Spanish firms selected randomly by size and sector over a ten-yearperiod, from 1995 to 2004. Through a sample of more than 10,000 Spanish firms we analyse towhat extent labour productivity can be explained by physical capital deepening, by quantifiedintangible capital deepening and by firm s economic efficiency (or total factor productivity PTF).Our results confirm the hypothesis that PTF weigh has increased during the period studied,especially on those firms that have experienced a significant raise in quantified intangible capital,evidencing that there are some important complementary effects between capital investment andintangible resources in the explanation of productivity growth. These results have significantdifferences considering economic sector and firm s dimension.

An assessment of empirical Bayes and composite estimators for small areas

We compare a set of empirical Bayes and composite estimators of the population means of the districts (small areas) of a country, and show that the natural modelling strategy of searching for a well fitting empirical Bayes model and using it for estimation of the area-level means can be inefficient.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages ofeconomic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

The minimax distortion redundancy in empirical quantizer design

We obtain minimax lower and upper bounds for the expected distortionredundancy of empirically designed vector quantizers. We show that the meansquared distortion of a vector quantizer designed from $n$ i.i.d. datapoints using any design algorithm is at least $\Omega (n^{-1/2})$ awayfrom the optimal distortion for some distribution on a bounded subset of${\cal R}^d$. Together with existing upper bounds this result shows thatthe minimax distortion redundancy for empirical quantizer design, as afunction of the size of the training data, is asymptotically on the orderof $n^{1/2}$. We also derive a new upper bound for the performance of theempirically optimal quantizer.

Riesz-Nágy singular functions revisited

In 1952 F. Riesz and Sz.Nágy published an example of a monotonic continuous function whose derivative is zero almost everywhere, that is to say, a singular function. Besides, the function was strictly increasing. Their example was built as the limit of a sequence of deformations of the identity function. As an easy consequence of the definition, the derivative, when it existed and was finite, was found to be zero. In this paper we revisit the Riesz-N´agy family of functions and we relate it to a system for real numberrepresentation which we call (t, t-1) expansions. With the help of these real number expansions we generalize the family. The singularity of the functions is proved through some metrical properties of the expansions used in their definition which also allows us to give a more precise way of determining when the derivative is 0 or infinity.

Concepções, Práxis e Tendências de Desenvolvimento Curricular no Ensino Superior Público em Cabo Verde: um Estudo de Caso Sobre a Universidade de Cabo Verde

A tese enquadra-se nas discussões sobre as concepções do currículo, como problemática central nos processos de educação e formação, e o papel da Universidade ao longo dos tempos, mormente nos contextos actuais da globalização, conferindo especial relevo às concepções, práxis e tendências que caracterizam a experiência de desenvolvimento curricular na Universidade de Cabo Verde (Uni-CV), desde a sua criação, em Novembro de 2006, no seguimento de um percurso de quase três décadas do ensino superior público cabo-verdiano Com o enquadramento teórico da problemática da investigação faz-se uma ampla cartografia da literatura relevante no campo científico dos estudos curriculares, numa abordagem que patenteia a diversidade de conceptualizações do currículo e do desenvolvimento curricular, os principais traços característicos das teorias curriculares que se têm sucedido e ou que rivalizam na busca de hegemonia no sector da educação, bem como as políticas educativas e curriculares que vêm sendo concebidas e realizadas à escala global, dispensando atenção particular às dimensões instituinte e instituída do processo curricular. Ainda que fortemente condicionado pelas concepções e políticas de globalização da educação, a tendência para a uniformização educativa e curricular não constitui uma inevitabilidade, demonstrando-se, pelo contrário, que o processo de desenvolvimento curricular deixa espaços de apropriação e inovação ao nível das instituições educativas, atendendo à diversidade de contextos, expectativas e perspectivas inerentes à dinâmica da realização do currículo. Ainda no plano teórico, ao analisar-se a evolução do conceito ou ideia de Universidade, desde a sua génese até aos tempos actuais, coloca-se em relevo a natureza específica da instituição no âmbito do ensino superior, patenteando o modo como, nos diferentes contextos, a mesma tem procurado afirmar a centralidade do conhecimento e do currículo no cumprimento da sua missão, a despeito de factores e condicionalismos diversos, de entre os quais releva o tipo de relacionamento predominante entre a Universidade, o Estado e o mercado, no âmbito do qual se deve entender a complexidade da crise institucional, na triplicidade das suas manifestações (crise de legitimidade, de hegemonia e de identidade) que atravessa a academia, com reflexos ao nível das tendências para o condicionamento da autonomia, missão e funções da academia, assim como da própria natureza do conhecimento universitário. Na procura de saídas para a crise, que é global e, como tal, se reflecte nas universidades do continente africano, em que se insere Cabo Verde, a Universidade é desafiada a afirmar a sua especificidade institucional, enquanto promotora da alta cultura e da capacidade de pensamento de longo prazo, conciliando, deste modo, as suas funções essenciais ou simbólicas com as que se prendem com a satisfação das necessidades imediatas ou de curto prazo da economia e do mercado. Com base nos pertinentes subsídios teóricos, os estudos empíricos desenvolvem-se segundo a abordagem metodológica de estudo de caso, em que a análise documental e as técnicas de investigação qualitativa e quantitativa permitiram consolidar as evidências sobre: (i) os antecedentes da criação da Uni-CV, através do mapeamento do percurso académico e curricular dos diversos estabelecimentos públicos de ensino superior que precederam a universidade pública, legando a esta o seu património científico, tecnológico e logístico, com as inerentes potencialidades e limitações; (ii) o processo de institucionalização da Uni-CV, com a referencialização das opções estruturantes da organização e gestão da Universidade assim como da política educativa e curricular da Universidade; (iii) a experiência multifacetada de desenvolvimento curricular na novel instituição durante os cinco primeiros anos de funcionamento (2006-2011), correlacionando opções e práxis e evidenciando tendências da sua evolução. Da análise interpretativa dos estudos empíricos realizados, mediante a triangulação dos dados de arquivo e de perspectiva, resulta que a Uni-CV, não obstante as fragilidades persistentes no processo de seu desenvolvimento institucional, tem cumprido a sua missão de forma satisfatória, facto que fica a dever-se quer à adequação das opções, normas e directivas conformadoras da dimensão instituinte do processo curricular, quer ao esforço de realização das prescrições curriculares, sendo, todavia, evidentes os desafios a serem vencidos tendo em vista a consecução da almejada excelência académica, que os Estatutos propugnam, e que passa, nomeadamente, pela melhoria do nível da qualificação do seu corpo docente, pela implementação ou funcionamento efectivo de alguns dos órgãos da academia e pela afirmação da investigação científica como função incontornável para o desempenho cabal das funções de ensino e extensão. De entre as conclusões, sustenta-se que, no processo de integração de Cabo Verde nas redes internacionais de investigação e excelência científica e tecnológica, como, de resto, propugnam os Estatutos da Uni-CV, deve atender-se à especificidade deste pequeno país do Atlântico Médio, tendo em conta as suas fragilidades estruturais, pelo que se impõe algum distanciamento crítico em relação à incorporação de certas opções de política educativa e curricular que emanam de instâncias internacionais, independentemente do seu carácter inovador ou mesmo da sua possível consistência científica e técnica, comprovada em outros contextos.

Signalling, mating success and paternal investment in sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus): A theoretical model

I present an optimisation model that links paternal investment, male display and female choice. Although deviced for sticklebacks, it readily applies to other fish with male guarding behaviour. It relies on a few basic assumptions on the ways hatching success depends on paternal investment and clutch size, and male survival on paternal investment and signaling. Paternal investment is here a state-dependent decision, and signal a condition-dependent handicap by which males inform females of how much they are willing to invest. Series of predictions are derived on female and male breeding strategies, including optimal levels of signaling and paternal investment as functions of clutch size, own condition, and residual reproductive value, as well as alternative strategies such as egg kleptoparasitism. Some predictions already have empirical support, for which the present model provides new interpretations. Other might readily be tested, e.g. by simple clutch-size manipulations.

Ethics and creative accounting: Some empirical evidence on accounting for intangibles in Spain

Recent research shows that financial reports are losing relevance. Mainly thisis due to the growing strategic importance of intangible assets in theperformance of a company. A possible solution is to modify accounting standardsso that statements include more self-generated intangible assets, taking intoaccount with their inherent risk and difficulty of valuation. We surveyed loanofficers who were asked to assess the credit-worthiness of a hypotheticalcompany. The only information given was a simplified version of financialstatements. Half the group got statements where research and development costshad been capitalized. The other half got statements in which these costs hadbeen treated as an expense. The findings show that capitalization wassignificantly more likely to attract a positive response to a loan request. Thepaper raises the question of whether accounting for intangibles might providemanagers with one more creative accounting technique and, in consequence, itsethical implications.

Adaptive model selection using empirical complexities

Given $n$ independent replicates of a jointly distributed pair $(X,Y)\in {\cal R}^d \times {\cal R}$, we wish to select from a fixed sequence of model classes ${\cal F}_1, {\cal F}_2, \ldots$ a deterministic prediction rule $f: {\cal R}^d \to {\cal R}$ whose risk is small. We investigate the possibility of empirically assessingthe {\em complexity} of each model class, that is, the actual difficulty of the estimation problem within each class. The estimated complexities are in turn used to define an adaptive model selection procedure, which is based on complexity penalized empirical risk.The available data are divided into two parts. The first is used to form an empirical cover of each model class, and the second is used to select a candidate rule from each cover based on empirical risk. The covering radii are determined empirically to optimize a tight upper bound on the estimation error. An estimate is chosen from the list of candidates in order to minimize the sum of class complexity and empirical risk. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the complexity of each model class is assessed empirically, based on the size of its empirical cover.Finite sample performance bounds are established for the estimates, and these bounds are applied to several non-parametric estimation problems. The estimates are shown to achieve a favorable tradeoff between approximation and estimation error, and to perform as well as if the distribution-dependent complexities of the model classes were known beforehand. In addition, it is shown that the estimate can be consistent,and even possess near optimal rates of convergence, when each model class has an infinite VC or pseudo dimension.For regression estimation with squared loss we modify our estimate to achieve a faster rate of convergence.

Social spending and demographics: The role of public policies in the intergenerational redistribution of income. Empirical evidence from Spain and Catalonia

The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of thefundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

Did colonization matter for growth? An empirical exploration into the historical causes of Africa's underdevelopment

We investigate the impact of 20th--century European colonizationon growth in Africa. We find that in the 1960--88 period growth has beenfaster for dependencies than for colonies; for British and Frenchcolonies than for Portuguese, Belgian and Italian ones; and for countrieswith less economic penetration during the colonial period. On average,African growth accelerates after decolonization. Proxies for colonialheritage add explanatory power to growth regressions and make indicatorsfor human capital, political and ethnic instability lose significance.Colonial variables capture the same effects of a sub--Saharan dummy andreduce its significance when jointly included in a cross sectionalregression with 98 countries.

Unique and conserved functions of B cell-activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF) in the chicken.

The chicken represents the best-characterized animal model for B cell development in the so-called gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) and the molecular processes leading to B cell receptor diversification in this species are well investigated. However, the mechanisms regulating B cell development and homeostasis in GALT species are largely unknown. Here we investigate the role played by the avian homologue of B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (BAFF). Flow cytometric analysis showed that the receptor for chicken B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (chBAFF) is expressed by mature and immature B cells. Unlike murine and human BAFF, chBAFF is primarily produced by B cells both in peripheral lymphoid organs and in the bursa of Fabricius, the chicken's unique primary lymphoid organ. In vitro and in vivo studies revealed that chBAFF is required for mature B cell survival. In addition, in vivo neutralization with a decoy receptor led to a reduction of the size and number of B cell follicles in the bursa, demonstrating that, in contrast to humans and mice, in chickens BAFF is also required for the development of immature B cells. Collectively, we show that chBAFF has phylogenetically conserved functions in mature B cell homeostasis but displays unique and thus far unknown properties in the regulation of B cell development in birds.

University admission marks in Catalonia: Some highlights from the empirical research

The results of the examinations taken by graduated high school studentswho want to enrol at a Catalan university are here studied. To do so,the authors address several issues related to the equity of the system:reliability of grading, difficulty and discrimination power of the exams.The general emphasis is put upon the concurrent research and empiricalevidence about the properties of the examination items and scores. Aftera discussion about the limitations of the exams' format and appropriatenessof the instruments used in the study, the article concludes with somesuggestions to improve such examinations.