Functionality, Accuracy, and Feasibility: Talking with Modelers

Models are an important part of many policy development processes, but meeting policy objectives relies on policy analysts engaging effectively with the modeling process and modelers understanding the policy issues. Furthermore, there are many different modeling methods, each with characteristics that potentially make it more or less suitable for analyzing a particular policy issue.
This paper presents a novel framework to assist policy analysts to engage with modelers so as to make the best use of models. The framework has three dimensions: Functionality, Accuracy and Feasibility. Functionality concerns ways in which modeling can be used to support broader policy objectives, such as promoting negotiation or comparing options. Accuracy concerns how to best represent the fundamental features of the system being modeled, and relies on selecting an appropriate technique. Feasibility concerns practical issues such as access to data and modeling skills.

Economical and operational optimization of CALB immobilization on MP1000 for amidation of olein fatty acids with ethanolamine

Dissertação de Mestrado , Engenharia Biológica, Faculdade de Engenharia de Recursos Naturais, Universidade do Algarve, 2008

Life cycle assessment in the supply chain: a review and case study

The paper addresses the use of Life Cycle Assessment as a tool for analysing freight transport activity in product supply chains. Published works that have assessed freight transport energy use in supply chain operations are reviewed and their results summarized. A case study of the energy use in the supply chains for jeans sold in both the UK and France is presented. The results of this case study indicate that the location from which cotton is sourced can have a major impact on the total energy used in commercial transport in the jeans supply chain. However, overall, this has a limited impact on the total energy used in producing and supplying jeans. This is because the vast majority of total energy used in the supply chain is consumed during cotton cultivation, denim production and jeans manufacture. The work also demonstrates that the amount of energy used by consumers transporting jeans to their homes by car can be greater than the total commercial transport energy used in the supply chain (per kg of jeans transported).

Isoflavones in food supplements: chemical profile, label accordance and permeability study in Caco-2 cells

Consumers nowadays are playing an active role in their health-care. A special case is the increasing number of women, who are reluctant to use exogenous hormone therapy for the treatment of menopausal symptoms and are looking for complementary therapies. However, food supplements are not clearly regulated in Europe. The EFSA has only recently begun to address the issues of botanical safety and purity regulation, leading to a variability of content, standardization, dosage, and purity of available products. In this study, isoflavones (puerarin, daidzin, genistin, daidzein, glycitein, genistein, formononetin, prunetin, and biochanin A) from food supplements (n = 15) for menopausal symptoms relief are evaluated and compared with the labelled information. Only four supplements complied with the recommendations made by the EC on the tolerable thresholds. The intestinal bioavailability of these compounds was investigated using Caco-2 cells. The apparent permeability coefficients of the selected isoflavonoids across the Caco-2 cells were affected by the isoflavone concentration and product matrix.

Social impact bond feasibility study

Youth unemployment is one of the most pressing social issues in Portugal, often associated to a lack of skills. Faz-Te Forward (FFWD), a Portuguese employability programme, has demonstrated great potential for impact in solving this issue, especially amongst a neglected segment of the population – those belonging to “sandwich families”. The present thesis, integrated in the SIB Research Programme from the Social Investment Lab, evaluates the feasibility of this programme to be financed through a Social Impact Bond, an innovative outcomes-based financing model. From a data analysis undertaken to FFWD’s historical information, a business case for a SIB was developed.

Relationship of physical activity with motor skills, aerobic fitness and body fat in preschool children: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study (Ballabeina).

Adiposity, low aerobic fitness and low levels of activity are all associated with clustered cardiovascular disease risk in children and their high prevalence represents a major public health concern. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship of objectively measured physical activity (PA) with motor skills (agility and balance), aerobic fitness and %body fat in young children. This study is a cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses using mixed linear models. Longitudinal data were adjusted for baseline outcome parameters. In all, 217 healthy preschool children (age 4-6 years, 48% boys) participated in this study. PA (accelerometers), agility (obstacle course), dynamic balance (balance beam), aerobic fitness (20-m shuttle run) and %body fat (bioelectric impedance) at baseline and 9 months later. PA was positively associated with both motor skills and aerobic fitness at baseline as well as with their longitudinal changes. Specifically, only vigorous, but not total or moderate PA, was related to changes in aerobic fitness. Higher PA was associated with less %body fat at baseline, but not with its change. Conversely, baseline motor skills, aerobic fitness or %body fat were not related to changes in PA. In young children, baseline PA was associated with improvements in motor skills and in aerobic fitness, an important determinant of cardiovascular risk.

Morphogenesis of the ureterovesical junction:a histologic and microanatomic study in the rat.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the development of the ureterovesical junction in rats. METHODS: A total of 110 albino rats (50 prenatal and 60 newborn) with a gestation of 21 days were studied at the age of 17 days after conception until 5 days after birth. The lower urinary tract was microdissected. Microphotography (110 animals), histologic examination (44 animals), and scanning electron microscopy (66 animals) of the ureterovesical junction were performed. Urea and creatinine from the amniotic fluid of 20 fetuses and from the urine of 10 neonates were measured. RESULTS: At day 17 after conception, separate penetration of the mesonephric duct and ureter into the wall of the urogenital sinus was observed. Continuity between the lumen of the ureter and the urogenital sinus was established on day 19 after conception. The straight passage of the intramural ureter into the urogenital sinus at day 17 after conception changed to the definitive L-shape with a vertical entry into the bladder on day 5 after birth. In the distal ureter, the change of the mesenchymal tissue into immature smooth muscle was first observed at birth, and the muscle became mature on the fifth postnatal day. At birth, Waldeyer's sheath was recognized. The creatinine and urea levels were stable prenatally (average 22.4 micromol/L and 6.88 mmol/L, respectively) and rose significantly postnatally (average 133 micromol/L and 32.65 mmol/L, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The attachment of the ureter to the urogenital sinus and later to the bladder, the modification of its passage, and its mobility within Waldeyer's sheath may be essential in preventing vesicoureteral reflux. The production of urine and its flow does not seem to be the trigger of ureteral smooth muscle formation.

Promoting hospital-based smoking cessation services at major Swiss hospitals: a before and after study.

Whether a 1-year nationwide, government supported programme is effective in significantly increasing the number of smoking cessation clinics at major Swiss hospitals as well as providing basic training for the staff running them. We conducted a baseline evaluation of hospital services for smoking cessation, hypertension, and obesity by web search and telephone contact followed by personal visits between October 2005 and January 2006 of 44 major public hospitals in the 26 cantons of Switzerland; we compared the number of active smoking cessation services and trained personnel between baseline to 1 year after starting the programme including a training workshop for doctors and nurses from all hospitals as well as two further follow-up visits. At base line 9 (21%) hospitals had active smoking cessation services, whereas 43 (98%) and 42 (96%) offered medical services for hypertension and obesity respectively. Hospital directors and heads of Internal Medicine of 43 hospitals were interested in offering some form of help to smokers provided they received outside support, primarily funding to get started or to continue. At two identical workshops, 100 health professionals (27 in Lausanne, 73 in Zurich) were trained for one day. After the programme, 22 (50%) hospitals had an active smoking cessation service staffed with at least 1 trained doctor and 1 nurse. A one-year, government-supported national intervention resulted in a substantial increase in the number of hospitals allocating trained staff and offering smoking cessation services to smokers. Compared to the offer for hypertension and obesity this offer is still insufficient.

Identifying the neural correlates of executive functions in early cerebral microangiopathy: a combined VBM and DTI study.

Cerebral microangiopathy (CMA) has been associated with executive dysfunction and fronto-parietal neural network disruption. Advances in magnetic resonance imaging allow more detailed analyses of gray (e.g., voxel-based morphometry-VBM) and white matter (e.g., diffusion tensor imaging-DTI) than traditional visual rating scales. The current study investigated patients with early CMA and healthy control subjects with all three approaches. Neuropsychological assessment focused on executive functions, the cognitive domain most discussed in CMA. The DTI and age-related white matter changes rating scales revealed convergent results showing widespread white matter changes in early CMA. Correlations were found in frontal and parietal areas exclusively with speeded, but not with speed-corrected executive measures. The VBM analyses showed reduced gray matter in frontal areas. All three approaches confirmed the hypothesized fronto-parietal network disruption in early CMA. Innovative methods (DTI) converged with results from conventional methods (visual rating) while allowing greater spatial and tissue accuracy. They are thus valid additions to the analysis of neural correlates of cognitive dysfunction. We found a clear distinction between speeded and nonspeeded executive measures in relationship to imaging parameters. Cognitive slowing is related to disease severity in early CMA and therefore important for early diagnostics.

Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.

Gender bias in the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study 2003 (TIMMS) for Canadian students /

This study is a secondary data analysis of the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study 2003 (TIMSS) to determine if there is a gender bias, unbalanced number of items suited to the cognitive skill of one gender, and to compare performance by location. Results of the Grade 8, math portion of the test were examined. Items were coded as verbal, spatial, verbal /spatial or neither and as conventional or unconventional. A Kruskal- Wallis was completed for each category, comparing performance of students from Ontario, Quebec, and Singapore. A Factor Analysis was completed to determine if there were item categories with similar characteristics. Gender differences favouring males were found in the verbal conventional category for Canadian students and in the spatial conventional category for students in Quebec. The greatest differences were by location, as students in Singapore outperformed students from Canada in all areas except for the spatial unconventional category. Finally, whether an item is conventional or unconventional is more important than whether the item is verbal or spatial. Results show the importance of fair assessment for the genders in both the classroom and on standardized tests.

A geochemical and petrological study of volcanic rocks in the Beardmore-Geraldton Archaean Greenstone Belt, Northwestern Ontario

Three repetitive sequences of northward youngIng, east striking, linear, volcano-sedimentary units are found in the late Archaean BeardmoreGeraldton greenstone belt, situated within the Wabigoon subprovince of the Superior Province of northwestern Ontario. The volcanic components are characterised by basaltic flows that are pillowed at the top and underlain by variably deformed massive flows which may In part be intrusive. Petrographic examination of the volcanic units indicates regional metamorphism up to greenschist facies (T=3250 C - 4500 C, P=2kbars) overprinted by a lower amphibolite facies thermal event (T=5750 C, P=2kbars) confined to the south-eastern portion of the belt. Chemical element results suggest olivine, plagioclase and pyroxene are the main fractionating mineral phases. Mobility studies on the varIOUS chemical elements indicate that K, Ca, Na and Sr are relatively mobile, while P, Zr, Ti, Fet (total iron = Fe203) and Mg are relatively immobile. Discriminant diagrams employing immobile element suggests that the majority of the samples are of oceanic affinity with a minor proportion displaying an island arc affinity. Such a transitional tectonic setting IS also refle.cted in REE data where two groups of volcanic samples are recognised. Oceanic tholeiites are LREE depleted with [La/Sm] N = 0.65 and a relatively flat HREE profile with [Sm/Yb] N = 1.2. Island arc type basalts (calc-alkaline) are LREE enriched, with a [La/Sm] N = 1.6, and a relatively higher fractionated HREE profile with [Sm/Yb] N = 1.9. Petrogenetic modelling performed on oceanIC tholeiites suggests derivation from a depleted spinel lherzolite source which undergoes 20% partial melting. Island arc type basalts can be derived by 10% partial melting of a hypothetical amphibolitised oceanic tholeiite source. The majority of the volcanic rocks in the Beardmore-Geraldton Belt are interpreted to represent fragments of oceanic crust trapped at a consuming plate margin. Subsequent post accretionary intrusion of gabbroic rocks (sensu lato) with calc-alkaline affinity is considered to result in the apparent hybrid tectonic setting recognized for the BGB.

The von Neumann Minimax Theorem and its relatives and a study of externality in on-line auctions

This work consists of a theoretical part and an experimental one. The first part provides a simple treatment of the celebrated von Neumann minimax theorem as formulated by Nikaid6 and Sion. It also discusses its relationships with fundamental theorems of convex analysis. The second part is about externality in sponsored search auctions. It shows that in these auctions, advertisers have externality effects on each other which influence their bidding behavior. It proposes Hal R.Varian model and shows how adding externality to this model will affect its properties. In order to have a better understanding of the interaction among advertisers in on-line auctions, it studies the structure of the Google advertisements networ.k and shows that it is a small-world scale-free network.