Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

Worksharing and access discounts in the postal sector with asymmetrics information

This paper analyses the optimal worksharing discount granted to mailers and entrants in a liberalized sector when there is asymmetric information about the Post Office's cost. When the regulator is unable to ascertain which part of total cost of sorting has to be attributed to each sorting facility, the optimal 'accesss discount' given to the entrants is set in a pro-competitive way, thus facilitating the entry of firms that are less afficient than the Post Office. Howerver, with the same asymmetry of information, the optimal 'worksharing discount' given to the mailers is set to favor the Post Office, even when it is less efficient than the mailers in providing the sorting.

Novel anesthetics and other treatment strategies for refractory status epilepticus

Refractory status epilepticus (RSE)-that is, seizures resistant to at least two antiepileptic drugs (AEDs)-is generally managed with barbiturates, propofol, or midazolam, despite a low level of evidence (Rossetti, 2007). When this approach fails, the need for alternative pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic strategies emerges. These have been investigated even less systematically than the aforementioned compounds, and are often used, sometimes in succession, in cases of extreme refractoriness (Robakis & Hirsch, 2006). Several possibilities are reviewed here. In view of the marked heterogeneity of reported information, etiologies, ages, and comedications, it is extremely difficult to evaluate a given method, not to say to compare different strategies among them. Pharmacologic Approaches Isoflurane and desflurane may complete the armamentarium of anesthetics,' and should be employed in a ''close'' environment, in order to prevent intoxication of treating personnel. c-Aminobutyric acid (GABA)A receptor potentiation represents the putative mechanism of action. In an earlier report, isoflurane was used for up to 55 h in nine patients, controlling seizures in all; mortality was, however, 67% (Kofke et al., 1989). More recently, the use of these inhalational anesthetics was described in seven subjects with RSE, for up to 26 days, with an endtidal concentration of 1.2-5%. All patients required vasopressors, and paralytic ileus occurred in three; outcome was fatal in three patients (43%) (Mirsattari et al., 2004). Ketamine, known as an emergency anesthetic because of its favorable hemodynamic profile, is an N-methyl-daspartate (NMDA) antagonist; the interest for its use in RSE derives from animal works showing loss of GABAA efficacy and maintained NMDA sensitivity in prolonged status epilepticus (Mazarati & Wasterlain, 1999). However, to avoid possible neurotoxicity, it appears safer to combine ketamine with GABAergic compounds (Jevtovic-Todorovic et al., 2001; Ubogu et al., 2003), also because of a likely synergistic effect (Martin & Kapur, 2008). There are few reported cases in humans, describing progressive dosages up to 7.5 mg/kg/h for several days (Sheth & Gidal, 1998; Quigg et al., 2002; Pruss & Holtkamp, 2008), with moderate outcomes. Paraldehyde acts through a yet-unidentified mechanism, and appears to be relatively safe in terms of cardiovascular tolerability (Ramsay, 1989; Thulasimani & Ramaswamy, 2002), but because of the risk of crystal formation and its reactivity with plastic, it should be used only as fresh prepared solution in glass devices (Beyenburg et al., 2000). There are virtually no recent reports regarding its use in adults RSE, whereas rectal paraldehyde in children with status epilepticus resistant to benzodiazepines seems less efficacious than intravenous phenytoin (Chin et al., 2008). Etomidate is another anesthetic agent for which the exact mechanism of action is also unknown, which is also relatively favorable regarding cardiovascular side effects, and may be used for rapid sedation. Its use in RSE was reported in eight subjects (Yeoman et al., 1989). After a bolus of 0.3 mg/kg, a drip of up to 7.2 mg/kg/h for up to 12 days was administered, with hypotension occurring in five patients; two patients died. A reversible inhibition of cortisol synthesis represents an important concern, limiting its widespread use and implying a careful hormonal substitution during treatment (Beyenburg et al., 2000). Several nonsedating approaches have been reported. The use of lidocaine in RSE, a class Ib antiarrhythmic agent modulating sodium channels, was reviewed in 1997 (Walker & Slovis, 1997). Initial boluses up to 5 mg/kg and perfusions of up to 6 mg/kg/h have been mentioned; somewhat surprisingly, at times lidocaine seemed to be successful in controlling seizures in patients who were refractory to phenytoin. The aforementioned dosages should not be overshot, in order to keep lidocaine levels under 5 mg/L and avoid seizure induction (Hamano et al., 2006). A recent pediatric retrospective survey on 57 RSE episodes (37 patients) described a response in 36%, and no major adverse events; mortality was not given (Hamano et al., 2006 Verapamil, a calcium-channel blocker, also inhibits P-glycoprotein, a multidrug transporter that may diminish AED availability in the brain (Potschka et al., 2002). Few case reports on its use in humans are available; this medication nevertheless appears relatively safe (under cardiac monitoring) up to dosages of 360 mg/day (Iannetti et al., 2005). Magnesium, a widely used agent for seizures elicited by eclampsia, has also been anecdotally reported in RSE (Fisher et al., 1988; Robakis & Hirsch, 2006), but with scarce results even at serum levels of 14 mm. The rationale may be found in the physiologic blockage of NMDA channels by magnesium ions (Hope & Blumenfeld, 2005). Ketogenic diet has been prescribed for decades, mostly in children, to control refractory seizures. Its use in RSE as ''ultima ratio'' has been occasionally described: three of six children (Francois et al., 2003) and one adult (Bodenant et al., 2008) were responders. This approach displays its effect subacutely over several days to a few weeks. Because ''malignant RSE'' seems at times to be the consequence of immunologic processes (Holtkamp et al., 2005), a course of immunomodulatory treatment is often advocated in this setting, even in the absence of definite autoimmune etiologies (Robakis & Hirsch, 2006); steroids, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), plasma exchanges, or intravenous immunoglobulins may be used alone or in sequential combination. Nonpharmacologic Approaches These strategies are described somewhat less frequently than pharmacologic approaches. Acute implantation of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) has been reported in RSE (Winston et al., 2001; Patwardhan et al., 2005; De Herdt et al., 2009). Stimulation was usually initiated in the operation room, and intensity progressively adapted over a few days up to 1.25 mA (with various regimens regarding the other parameters), allowing a subacute seizure control; one transitory episode of bradycardia/asystole has been described (De Herdt et al., 2009). Of course, pending identification of a definite seizure focus, resective surgery may also be considered in selected cases (Lhatoo & Alexopoulos, 2007). Low-frequency (0.5 Hz) transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) at 90% of the resting motor threshold has been reported to be successful for about 2 months in a patient with epilepsia partialis continua, but with a weaning effect afterward, implying the need for a repetitive use (Misawa et al., 2005). More recently, TMS was applied in a combination of a short ''priming'' high frequency (up to 100 Hz) and longer runs of low-frequency stimulations (1 Hz) at 90-100% of the motor threshold in seven other patients with simple-partial status, with mixed results (Rotenberg et al., 2009). Paradoxically at first glance, electroconvulsive treatment may be found in cases of extremely resistant RSE. A recent case report illustrates its use in an adult patient with convulsive status, with three sessions (three convulsions each) carried out over 3 days, resulting in a moderate recovery; the mechanism is believed to be related to modification of the synaptic release of neurotransmitters (Cline & Roos, 2007). Therapeutic hypothermia, which is increasingly used in postanoxic patients (Oddo et al., 2008), has been the object of a recent case series in RSE (Corry et al., 2008). Reduction of energy demand, excitatory neurotransmission, and neuroprotective effects may account for the putative mechanism of action. Four adult patients in RSE were cooled to 31_-34_C with an endovascular system for up to 90 h, and then passively rewarmed over 2-50 h. Seizures were controlled in two patients, one of whom died; also one of the other two patients in whom seizures continued subsequently deceased. Possible side effects are related to acid-base and electrolyte disturbances, and coagulation dysfunction including thrombosis, infectious risks, cardiac arrhythmia, and paralytic ileus (Corry et al., 2008; Cereda et al., 2009). Finally, anecdotic evidence suggests that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-air exchange may induce some transitory benefit in RSE (Kohrmann et al., 2006); although this approach was already in use in the middle of the twentieth century, the mechanism is unknown. Acknowledgment A wide spectrum of pharmacologic (sedating and nonsedating) and nonpharmacologic (surgical, or involving electrical stimulation) regimens might be applied to attempt RSE control. Their use should be considered only after refractoriness to AED or anesthetics displaying a higher level of evidence. Although it seems unlikely that these uncommon and scarcely studied strategies will influence the RSE outcome in a decisive way, some may be interesting in particular settings. However, because the main prognostic determinant in status epilepticus appears to be related to the underlying etiology rather than to the treatment approach (Rossetti et al., 2005, 2008), the safety issue should always represent a paramount concern for the prescribing physician. Conclusion The author confirms that he has read the Journal's position on issues involved in ethical publication and affirms that this paper is consistent with those guidelines.

Estudio e integración de una familia de ecuaciones en derivadas parciales de cuarto orden

En una memoria anterior sobre la aplicación de los funcionales abeloides a la resolución de las ecuaciones en derivadas parciales de cuarto orden con coeficientes constantes (1), se hizo la clasificación de las ecuaciones cuyo cono característico posee una generatriz tacnodal. Entre las ecuaciones de tipo totalmente hiperbólico se destacaron dos casos: según que el cono característico correspondiente sea de género O (primer caso), o bien sea de género 1 (segundo caso). En la citada memoria se estudia dicho primer caso, mientras que en ésta trataremos del segundo: con más precisión, se tratará de resolver las ecuaciones en derivadas parciales del tipo indicado cuyo cono característico además de ser de género 1, sea simétrico respecto al plano tangente al cono a lo largo de la generatriz tacnodal. El desarrollo de los cálculos es aquí muy penoso pero se puede evitar mediante consideraciones sintéticas sobre los resultados obtenidos en la menloria anteriormente citada.

Worksharing and access discounts in the postal sector with asymmetrics information

This paper analyses the optimal worksharing discount granted to mailers and entrants in a liberalized sector when there is asymmetric information about the Post Office's cost. When the regulator is unable to ascertain which part of total cost of sorting has to be attributed to each sorting facility, the optimal 'accesss discount' given to the entrants is set in a pro-competitive way, thus facilitating the entry of firms that are less afficient than the Post Office. Howerver, with the same asymmetry of information, the optimal 'worksharing discount' given to the mailers is set to favor the Post Office, even when it is less efficient than the mailers in providing the sorting.

Drogodependencias: aspectos terminológicos y taxonómicos

En este estudio se efectlia una revisión de los trabajos llevados a cabo previamente por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) sobre aspectos conceptuales y terminológicos de las Drogodependencias. Se pone especial énfasis en la definición y concepto de 'droga' y 'drogodependencia' a como en el término 'neuroadaptació' el cual es presentado como una alternativa al de 'dependencia flsica'. Se hace referencia también a las nuevas terminologías de 'abuso de drogas', o 'mal uso de drogas'. Por lo que respecta a cuestiones de clasificación, el estudio se centra en las aportaciones llevadas a cabo por el DSM-III-R de la Asociación Americana de Psiquiatria y el ICD-I0 de la OMS.

Surgical treatment of temporoparietooccipital cortical dysplasia in infants: report of two cases.

PURPOSE: Extensive multilobar cortical dysplasia in infants commonly is first seen with catastrophic epilepsy and poses a therapeutic challenge with respect to control of epilepsy, brain development, and psychosocial outcome. Experience with surgical treatment of these lesions is limited, often not very encouraging, and holds a higher operative risk when compared with that in older children and adults. METHODS: Two infants were evaluated for surgical control of catastrophic epilepsy present since birth, along with a significant psychomotor developmental delay. Magnetic resonance imaging showed multilobar cortical dysplasia (temporoparietooccipital) with a good electroclinical correlation. They were treated with a temporal lobectomy and posterior (parietooccipital) disconnection. RESULTS: Both infants had excellent postoperative recovery and at follow-up (1.5 and 3.5 years) evaluation had total control of seizures with a definite "catch up" in their development, both motor and cognitive. No long-term complications have been detected to date. CONCLUSIONS: The incorporation of disconnective techniques in the surgery for extensive multilobar cortical dysplasia in infants has made it possible to achieve excellent seizure results by maximizing the extent of surgical treatment to include the entire epileptogenic zone. These techniques decrease perioperative morbidity, and we believe would decrease the potential for the development of long-term complications associated with large brain excisions.

Can postictal memory predict postoperative memory in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy?

We investigated the contribution of postictal memory testing for lateralizing the epileptic focus and predicting memory outcome after surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Forty-five patients with TLE underwent interictal, postictal, and postoperative assessment of verbal and nonverbal memory. Surgery consisted of anterior temporal lobectomy (36), selective isolated amygdalohippocampectomy (6), or amygdalohippocampectomy coupled to lesionectomy (3). Postictal and postoperative but not interictal memory were significantly lower in left TLE than in right TLE. Nonverbal memory showed no significant difference in left TLE versus right TLE in all conditions. Postictal memory was significantly correlated with postoperative memory, but the effect disappeared when the lateralization of the focus was considered. Postictal verbal memory is a useful bedside tool that can help lateralize the epileptic focus. Larger studies are needed to further estimate its predictive value of the postoperative outcome.

¿Qué tiene que ver el género con el parentesco?

Debemos el concepto de intersectionality (interseccionalidad) a un grupo de feministas y lesbianas afro-descendientes quienes hacia fines de los 1970s denunciaron la ceguera racial de sus compañeras blancas al ignorar las discriminaciones particulares en función de clase social, de "raza", de sexo/género, de sexualidad de que padecían éstas. La boga actual de esas interseccionalidades entre categorías de clasificación sociocultural diversas está, no obstante, en relación inversa con la carencia de investigaciones empíricas al respecto en la teoría feminista. En este artículo recurro a mi estudio clásico Racismo y Sexualidad en la Cuba Colonial (1974, 1992) precisamente para documentar tales interseccionalidades dinámicas en esa sociedad desigual legitimada por una doctrina racista y el consecuente control de los cuerpos sexuados de las mujeres de las elites, contra el trasfondo ontológico de la disociación binaria moderna de la cultura de la naturaleza.

Análisis multivariable: Una nueva vía para la caracterización cerámica.

En los estudios sobre comercio en la antigüedad, la determinación del lugar de procedencia de un recipiente es imprescindible. Esta caracterización se ha resuelto siempre con el análisis fisico-químico de las pastas cerámicas o el estudio epigráfico. Sin embargo, creo que existe una tercera vía: la clasificación tipológica de las cerámicas a través de parámetros numéricos. Es un procedimiento mucho más barato que el análisis fisico-químico, y es por ello que sería de gran utilidad para yacimientos en los que la cantidad de material hace imposible esos análisis para todos los fragmentos de cerámica.

Bronces de tocador ibéricos con representaciones de tipo serpentiforme en Ullastret

Los objetos de tocador son, junto a las fíbulas, parte definitoria del material de bronce de empleo personal presente en el yacimiento (41 piezas, suponiendo el 8,23 %); su número no permite efectuar una clasificación analítica, aunque sí una adscripción cronológica que otorga una visión global de la presencia de estos objetos en Ullastret. Disponemos de cinco tipos de instrumentos: panoplias, scalptoriums, espátulas, auriscalpiums y pinzas.

Recurrence of status epilepticus: Prognostic role and outcome predictors.

OBJECTIVE: Predictors of morbidity and mortality after status epilepticus (SE) have been studied extensively in hospital- and population-based cohorts. However, little attention has been directed toward SE recurrence after an incident episode. We investigated clinical and demographic characteristics of patients presenting SE recurrence and its specific prognostic role. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened our prospective registry of consecutive adults with SE between April 2006 and February 2014. Demographic and clinical data were compared between incident and recurrent SE episodes; risk of SE recurrence was assessed through survival analysis, and the prognostic role of SE recurrence with multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the incident cohort (509 patients), 68 (13%) experienced recurrent SE. The cumulative recurrence rate over 4 years was 32%. Recurrence risk was significantly reduced after an acute SE etiology (hazard ratio [HR] 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82; p = 0.005), and was borderline increased in women (HR 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.65; p = 0.06). Although recurrent SE episodes showed lower morbidity and mortality, prognosis was independently related to Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and potentially fatal etiology, but not to SE recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides class III evidence that SE recurrence involves a significant proportion of patients, and that recurrence risk is independently associated with chronic etiology and to a lesser extent with female gender. However, contrary to underlying cause and SE severity, SE recurrence per se does not independently correlate with outcome. Early identification of patients at higher risk of SE recurrence may influence their management during follow-up.

Autobiografia, identitat i educació

Después de presentar la construcción de la identidad personal a modo de un proceso resultante de una tensión dialéctica entre el olvido y el recuerdo, entre la tradición y la innovación, la autora analiza las literaturas del yo ofreciendo una clasificación tipológica: autobiografía, memoria de vida, novela personal, diario íntimo, epistolario y autorretrato o ensayo. Finalmente, se insiste en la importancia de la construcción de uno mismo a través del relato destacándose la relevancia de la experiencia en el proceso educativo a través del cual uno da forma a su propia identidad personal.

Disturbance, age and size structure in stands of Pinus uncinata Ram

Las estructuras de tamaño y edad de dos bosques monoespecificos subalpinos de Pinus uncinata en el Pirineo, fueron estudiadas e interpretadas introduciendo una clasificación sencilla de los árboles según la exposición de su copa a la radiación solar directa. Ambas poblaciones muestran distribuciones de diámetro de J invertida irregulares, cuya Interpretación es incierta. Por el contrario, la estructura de edad en ambos bosques muestra picos visibles, los cuales, si se tienen en cuenta la exposición de la copa, indican que la regeneración se produce en claros del bosque. Se analizaron las series de anillos de crecimiento de los árboles de cada sitio para reconstruir su historia reciente de perturbaciones Identificando los incrementos bruscos del crecimiento. El régimen de perturbaciones en los dos bosques es diferente, y en ambos casos muestra un efecto madelador análogo sobre la estructura de edad. Se concluye que P. uncinata se comporta como una especie heliófila que puede formar bosques maduros o multicohorte bajo determinados regímenes de perturbaciones suaves, gracias a su capacidad para iniciar la regeneración en claros pequeños. Este proceso tiene lugar en un lapso de tiempo corto después de la incidencia de las perturbaciones.

El género Mastogloia en los sistemas acuáticos del litoral mediterraneo español

Desde 1979 se ha estudiado la flora de diatomeas bentónicas de 60 ecosistemas acuáticos del litoral mediterráneo español. En este trabajo se resumen las observaciones realizadas sobre las especies del género Mastogloia Thwaites presentes en estos puntos. Se han identificado 18 especies y 4 variedades; 15 de las cuales se citan por primera vez de nuestras aguas epicontinentales. Los datos sobre la distribución de las frecuencias relativas (%) de cada uno de los táxones del género Mastogloia han permitido la tipificación de las localidades estudiadas. Esta clasificación está de acuerdo con la obtenida a partir de los datos sobre la mineralización de las aguas (LOPEZ, 1981b).