Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.

Consumption of fried foods and risk of coronary heart disease: Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between consumption of fried foods and risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. PARTICIPANTS 40 757 adults aged 29-69 and free of coronary heart disease at baseline (1992-6), followed up until 2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Coronary heart disease events and vital status identified by record linkage with hospital discharge registers, population based registers of myocardial infarction, and mortality registers. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 11 years, 606 coronary heart disease events and 1135 deaths from all causes occurred. Compared with being in the first (lowest) quarter of fried food consumption, the multivariate hazard ratio of coronary heart disease in the second quarter was 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.45), in the third quarter was 1.07 (0.83 to 1.38), and in the fourth quarter was 1.08 (0.82 to 1.43; P for trend 0.74). The results did not vary between those who used olive oil for frying and those who used sunflower oil. Likewise, no association was observed between fried food consumption and all cause mortality: multivariate hazard ratio for the highest versus the lowest quarter of fried food consumption was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.14; P for trend 0.98). CONCLUSION In Spain, a Mediterranean country where olive or sunflower oil is used for frying, the consumption of fried foods was not associated with coronary heart disease or with all cause mortality.

Tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in Europe: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND In previous meta-analyses, tea consumption has been associated with lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. It is unclear, however, if tea is associated inversely over the entire range of intake. Therefore, we investigated the association between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes in a European population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centers in 8 European countries and consists of a total of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,835 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. Country-specific Hazard Ratios (HR) for incidence of type 2 diabetes were obtained after adjustment for lifestyle and dietary factors using a Cox regression adapted for a case-cohort design. Subsequently, country-specific HR were combined using a random effects meta-analysis. Tea consumption was studied as categorical variable (0, >0-<1, 1-<4, ≥ 4 cups/day). The dose-response of the association was further explored by restricted cubic spline regression. Country specific medians of tea consumption ranged from 0 cups/day in Spain to 4 cups/day in United Kingdom. Tea consumption was associated inversely with incidence of type 2 diabetes; the HR was 0.84 [95%CI 0.71, 1.00] when participants who drank ≥ 4 cups of tea per day were compared with non-drinkers (p(linear trend) = 0.04). Incidence of type 2 diabetes already tended to be lower with tea consumption of 1-<4 cups/day (HR = 0.93 [95%CI 0.81, 1.05]). Spline regression did not suggest a non-linear association (p(non-linearity) = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE A linear inverse association was observed between tea consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes. People who drink at least 4 cups of tea per day may have a 16% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes than non-tea drinkers.

Effect of carbohydrate overfeeding on whole body and adipose tissue metabolism in humans.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of a 4-day carbohydrate overfeeding on whole body net de novo lipogenesis and on markers of de novo lipogenesis in subcutaneous adipose tissue of healthy lean humans. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Nine healthy lean volunteers (five men and four women) were studied after 4 days of either isocaloric feeding or carbohydrate overfeeding. On each occasion, they underwent a metabolic study during which their energy expenditure and net substrate oxidation rates (indirect calorimetry), and the fractional activity of the pentose-phosphate pathway in subcutaneous adipose tissue (subcutaneous microdialysis with 1,6(13)C2,6,6(2)H2 glucose) were assessed before and after administration of glucose. Adipose tissue biopsies were obtained at the end of the experiments to monitor mRNAs of key lipogenic enzymes. RESULTS: Carbohydrate overfeeding increased basal and postglucose energy expenditure and net carbohydrate oxidation. Whole body net de novo lipogenesis after glucose loading was markedly increased at the expense of glycogen synthesis. Carbohydrate overfeeding also increased mRNA levels for the key lipogenic enzymes sterol regulatory element-binding protein-1c, acetyl-CoA carboxylase, and fatty acid synthase. The fractional activity of adipose tissue pentose-phosphate pathway was 17% to 22% and was not altered by carbohydrate overfeeding. DISCUSSION: Carbohydrate overfeeding markedly increased net de novo lipogenesis at the expense of glycogen synthesis. An increase in mRNAs coding for key lipogenic enzymes suggests that de novo lipogenesis occurred, at least in part, in adipose tissue. The pentose-phosphate pathway is active in adipose tissue of healthy humans, consistent with an active role of this tissue in de novo lipogenesis.

The distribution pattern of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the peridomiciles of a sector with canine and human visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the municipality of Dracena, São Paulo, Brazil

The specimen distribution pattern of a species can be used to characterise a population of interest and also provides area-specific guidance for pest management and control. In the municipality of Dracena, in the state of São Paulo, we analysed 5,889 Lutzomyia longipalpis specimens collected from the peridomiciles of 14 houses in a sector where American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) is transmitted to humans and dogs. The goal was to analyse the dispersion and a theoretical fitting of the species occurrence probability. From January-December 2005, samples were collected once per week using CDC light traps that operated for 12-h periods. Each collection was considered a sub-sample and was evaluated monthly. The standardised Morisita index was used as a measure of dispersion. Adherence tests were performed for the log-series distribution. The number of traps was used to adjust the octave plots. The quantity of Lu. longipalpis in the sector was highly aggregated for each month of the year, adhering to a log-series distribution for 11 of the 12 months analysed. A sex-stratified analysis demonstrated a pattern of aggregated dispersion adjusted for each month of the year. The classes and frequencies of the traps in octaves can be employed as indicators for entomological surveillance and AVL control.

Bottled natural mineral water in catalonia: origin and geographical evolution of its consumption and production

During the second half of the nineteenth century a major mineral water bottling industry appeared in Catalonia which vigorously lasted until the first third of the 20th century. The fact that the industry appeared in Catalonia and in other parts of Europe and the United States almost at the same time and had not existed before can be explained by a series of factors which coincided in time. This situation encouraged producers to pack, transport and sell bottled water from their respective sources. Among these factors there is the rise of hygienism, very influential in Catalonia, the declining water quality due to industrialization, the increase in population density, the improvement in transport, the emergence of thermal tourism or the invention of better containers used to store water. This project aims to explain thoroughly all the mentioned factors, and to give some light to why, when and how the Catalan bottled water industry appeared.

Comment faciliter la consommation de protéines après un bypass gastrique [How to facilitate protein consumption after gastric bypass?].

After a gastric bypass, covering protein needs is impossible. This deficit is co-responsible for several postoperative complications so it is essential to inform, prepare and train every patient candidate for such an intervention. To increase protein intake, it is important to work on two different aspects: on the one hand on food sources, targeting the richest food and, on the other hand, on food tolerance so that these foods can be consumed. In fact, gastric bypass induces not only a reduction in gastric volume, but also reduces the passage from the stomach to the intestine. Changes in feeding behavior are much needed to improve food tolerance.

Expression of non-TLR pattern recognition receptors in the spleen of BALB/c mice infected with Plasmodium yoelii and Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi AS

The spleen plays a crucial role in the development of immunity to malaria, but the role of pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) in splenic effector cells during malaria infection is poorly understood. In the present study, we analysed the expression of selected PRRs in splenic effector cells from BALB/c mice infected with the lethal and non-lethal Plasmodium yoelii strains 17XL and 17X, respectively, and the non-lethal Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi AS strain. The results of these experiments showed fewer significant changes in the expression of PRRs in AS-infected mice than in 17X and 17XL-infected mice. Mannose receptor C type 2 (MRC2) expression increased with parasitemia, whereas Toll-like receptors and sialoadhesin (Sn) decreased in mice infected with P. chabaudi AS. In contrast, MRC type 1 (MRC1), MRC2 and EGF-like module containing mucin-like hormone receptor-like sequence 1 (F4/80) expression decreased with parasitemia in mice infected with 17X, whereas MRC1 an MRC2 increased and F4/80 decreased in mice infected with 17XL. Furthermore, macrophage receptor with collagenous structure and CD68 declined rapidly after initial parasitemia. SIGNR1 and Sn expression demonstrated minor variations in the spleens of mice infected with either strain. Notably, macrophage scavenger receptor (Msr1) and dendritic cell-associated C-type lectin 2 expression increased at both the transcript and protein levels in 17XL-infected mice with 50% parasitemia. Furthermore, the increased lethality of 17X infection in Msr1 -/- mice demonstrated a protective role for Msr1. Our results suggest a dual role for these receptors in parasite clearance and protection in 17X infection and lethality in 17XL infection.

Self-reported alcohol consumption and its association with adherence and outcome of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption leading to morbidity and mortality affects HIV-infected individuals. Here, we aimed to study self-reported alcohol consumption and to determine its association with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV surrogate markers. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on daily alcohol consumption from August 2005 to August 2007 were analysed and categorized according to the World Health Organization definition (light, moderate or severe health risk). Multivariate logistic regression models and Pearson's chi(2) statistics were used to test the influence of alcohol use on endpoints. RESULTS: Of 6,323 individuals, 52.3% consumed alcohol less than once a week in the past 6 months. Alcohol intake was deemed light in 39.9%, moderate in 5.0% and severe in 2.8%. Higher alcohol consumption was significantly associated with older age, less education, injection drug use, being in a drug maintenance programme, psychiatric treatment, hepatitis C virus coinfection and with a longer time since diagnosis of HIV. Lower alcohol consumption was found in males, non-Caucasians, individuals currently on ART and those with more ART experience. In patients on ART (n=4,519), missed doses and alcohol consumption were positively correlated (P<0.001). Severe alcohol consumers, who were pretreated with ART, were more often off treatment despite having CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl; however, severe alcohol consumption per se did not delay starting ART. In treated individuals, alcohol consumption was not associated with worse HIV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption in HIV-infected individuals was associated with several psychosocial and demographic factors, non-adherence to ART and, in pretreated individuals, being off treatment despite low CD4+ T-cell counts.

Meat consumption and mortality - results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND Recently, some US cohorts have shown a moderate association between red and processed meat consumption and mortality supporting the results of previous studies among vegetarians. The aim of this study was to examine the association of red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with the risk of early death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS Included in the analysis were 448,568 men and women without prevalent cancer, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and with complete information on diet, smoking, physical activity and body mass index, who were between 35 and 69 years old at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of meat consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS As of June 2009, 26,344 deaths were observed. After multivariate adjustment, a high consumption of red meat was related to higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.28, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day), and the association was stronger for processed meat (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.66, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day). After correction for measurement error, higher all-cause mortality remained significant only for processed meat (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25, per 50 g/d). We estimated that 3.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 5.0%) of deaths could be prevented if all participants had a processed meat consumption of less than 20 g/day. Significant associations with processed meat intake were observed for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and 'other causes of death'. The consumption of poultry was not related to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The results of our analysis support a moderate positive association between processed meat consumption and mortality, in particular due to cardiovascular diseases, but also to cancer.

Pattern recognition of sleep in rodents using piezoelectric signals generated by gross body movements.

Current research on sleep using experimental animals is limited by the expense and time-consuming nature of traditional EEG/EMG recordings. We present here an alternative, noninvasive approach utilizing piezoelectric films configured as highly sensitive motion detectors. These film strips attached to the floor of the rodent cage produce an electrical output in direct proportion to the distortion of the material. During sleep, movement associated with breathing is the predominant gross body movement and, thus, output from the piezoelectric transducer provided an accurate respiratory trace during sleep. During wake, respiratory movements are masked by other motor activities. An automatic pattern recognition system was developed to identify periods of sleep and wake using the piezoelectric generated signal. Due to the complex and highly variable waveforms that result from subtle postural adjustments in the animals, traditional signal analysis techniques were not sufficient for accurate classification of sleep versus wake. Therefore, a novel pattern recognition algorithm was developed that successfully distinguished sleep from wake in approximately 95% of all epochs. This algorithm may have general utility for a variety of signals in biomedical and engineering applications. This automated system for monitoring sleep is noninvasive, inexpensive, and may be useful for large-scale sleep studies including genetic approaches towards understanding sleep and sleep disorders, and the rapid screening of the efficacy of sleep or wake promoting drugs.

Effects of dopamine on total oxygen consumption and oxygen delivery in healthy men.

The effect of acute intravenous dopamine (DA) administration at three sequential (but randomized) infusion rates was studied in eight young male volunteers. DA was infused at 2.5, 5, and 10 micrograms.kg-1.min-1. O2 consumption (VO2) and CO2 production (VCO2) were measured continuously by means of a computerized indirect calorimeter (blood system). In response to the 5- and 10-micrograms.kg-1.min-1 DA infusion rates, a significant increase (P less than 0.01) in VO2 corresponding to a 6% (range, 3-10) and 15% (range, 12-23) increase, respectively, of preinfusion values was observed. In contrast, at the low dose (2.5 micrograms.kg-1.min-1), DA induced no significant change in VO2. Cardiac output (Qc) increased significantly after the three DA administration rates [19% (range, 0-42), 34% (range, 17-71), and 25% (range, -3 to +47)] for the doses 2.5, 5, and 10 micrograms.-kg-1.min-1, respectively. The increase in O2 delivery (QO2) outweighed VO2 at all administration rates despite the relative drop in QO2 at the maximal DA administration rate. These results indicate that in humans DA improves net O2 supply to tissues proportionally more than it increases VO2 at all doses used in the present study.

Alcohol consumption and social inequality at the individual and country levels--results from an international study.

BACKGROUND: International comparisons of social inequalities in alcohol use have not been extensively investigated. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of country-level characteristics and individual socio-economic status (SES) on individual alcohol consumption in 33 countries. METHODS: Data on 101,525 men and women collected by cross-sectional surveys in 33 countries of the GENACIS study were used. Individual SES was measured by highest attained educational level. Alcohol use measures included drinking status and monthly risky single occasion drinking (RSOD). The relationship between individuals' education and drinking indicators was examined by meta-analysis. In a second step the individual level data and country data were combined and tested in multilevel models. As country level indicators we used the Purchasing Power Parity of the gross national income, the Gini coefficient and the Gender Gap Index. RESULTS: For both genders and all countries higher individual SES was positively associated with drinking status. Also higher country level SES was associated with higher proportions of drinkers. Lower SES was associated with RSOD among men. Women of higher SES in low income countries were more often RSO drinkers than women of lower SES. The opposite was true in higher income countries. CONCLUSION: For the most part, findings regarding SES and drinking in higher income countries were as expected. However, women of higher SES in low and middle income countries appear at higher risk of engaging in RSOD. This finding should be kept in mind when developing new policy and prevention initiatives.