Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies. METHODS We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands. RESULTS The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

Treatment of Retained Fetal Membranes: Comparison of the Postpartum Period after Routine Treatment or Routine Treatment Including an Additional Phytotherapeutic Substance in Dairy Cattle in Switzerland

Background: The therapy of retained fetal membranes (RFM) is a controversial subject. In Switzerland, intrauterine antibiotics are routinely administered although their effect on fertility parameters is questionable. The objective of this study was to compare the post-partal period after a routine treatment of RFM in 2 groups: one group received a placebo additionally (A), whereas the other group received a phytotherapeutic substance (lime bark) (B) additionally. The routine treatment of RFM included an attempt to manually remove the fetal membranes (for a maximum of 5 min), intramuscular administration of oxytetracycline and intrauterine treatment with tetracycline. In case of an elevated rectal temperature (>39.0°C), an additional non-steroidal inflam-matory drug was allowed. Methods: Cows undergoing caesarean section, suffering from prolapse of the uterus, deep cervical or vaginal injuries, hypocalcaemia, and illnesses during the last 14 days before calving were excluded. Cows had to be more than 265 days pregnant. Only cows that were artificially inseminated after RFM were included. Group stratification was done according to the last number on the ear tag (even/uneven) with (n = 50) cows in group A and (n = 55) cows in group B. Results: The number of treatments after the initial treatment of RFM was not significantly different between groups. The median interval from calving to the first insemination was 77 days in group A compared to 82 days in group B (p = 0.72). The number of AI’s until conception was not significantly different between groups. The median number of days open was 89 days in group A compared to 96 days in group B (p = 0.57). The culling rate was not significantly different between groups. Conclusion: There was neither a difference between the groups concerning therapies within the first 50 days after RFM nor concerning the subsequent fertility variables.

A rapid and efficient ion-exchange chromatography for Lu–Hf, Sm–Nd, and Rb–Sr geochronology and the routine isotope analysis of sub-ng amounts of Hf by MC-ICP-MS

The development and improvement of MC-ICP-MS instruments have fueled the growth of Lu–Hf geochronology over the last two decades, but some limitations remain. Here, we present improvements in chemical separation and mass spectrometry that allow accurate and precise measurements of 176Hf/177Hf and 176Lu/177Hf in high-Lu/Hf samples (e.g., garnet and apatite), as well as for samples containing sub-nanogram quantities of Hf. When such samples are spiked, correcting for the isobaric interference of 176Lu on 176Hf is not always possible if the separation of Lu and Hf is insufficient. To improve the purification of Hf, the high field strength elements (HFSE, including Hf) are first separated from the rare earth elements (REE, including Lu) on a first-stage cation column modified after Patchett and Tatsumoto (Contrib. Mineral. Petrol., 1980, 75, 263–267). Hafnium is further purified on an Ln-Spec column adapted from the procedures of Münker et al. (Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst., 2001, DOI: 10.1029/2001gc000183) and Wimpenny et al. (Anal. Chem., 2013, 85, 11258–11264) typically resulting in Lu/Hf < 0.0001, Zr/Hf < 1, and Ti/Hf < 0.1. In addition, Sm–Nd and Rb–Sr separations can easily be added to the described two-stage ion-exchange procedure for Lu–Hf. The isotopic compositions are measured on a Thermo Scientific Neptune Plus MC-ICP-MS equipped with three 1012 Ω resistors. Multiple 176Hf/177Hf measurements of international reference rocks yield a precision of 5–20 ppm for solutions containing 40 ppb of Hf, and 50–180 ppm for 1 ppb solutions (=0.5 ng sample Hf 0.5 in ml). The routine analysis of sub-ng amounts of Hf will facilitate Lu–Hf dating of low-concentration samples.

Effect of routine claw trimming on claw temperature in dairy cows measured by infrared thermography

Infrared thermography (IRT) was used to assess the effect of routine claw trimming on claw temperature. In total, 648 IRT observations each were collected from 81 cows housed in 6 tiestalls before and 3 wk after claw trimming. The feet were classified as either healthy (nonlesion group, n = 182) or affected with infectious foot disorders (group IFD, n = 142). The maximal surface temperatures of the coronary band and skin and the difference of the maximal temperatures (ΔT) between the lateral and medial claws of the respective foot were assessed. Linear mixed models, correcting for the hierarchical structure of the data, ambient temperature, and infectious status of the claws, were developed to evaluate the effect of time in relation to the trimming event (d 0 versus d 21) and claw (medial versus lateral). Front feet and hind feet were analyzed separately. Ambient temperature and infectious foot status were identified as external and internal factors, respectively, that significantly affected claw temperature. Before claw trimming, the lateral claws of the hind feet were significantly warmer compared with the medial claws, whereas such a difference was not evident for the claws of the front feet. At d 21, ΔT of the hind feet was reduced by ≥ 0.25 °C, whereas it was increased by ≤ 0.13 °C in the front feet compared with d 0. Therefore, trimming was associated with a remarkable decrease of ΔT of the hind claws. Equalizing the weight bearing of the hind feet by routine claw trimming is associated with a measurable reduction of ΔT between the paired hind claws.

Radiation dose reduction in postoperative computed position control of cochlear implant electrodes in lambs - An experimental study

OBJECTIVE Cochlear implants (CI) are standard treatment for prelingually deafened children and postlingually deafened adults. Computed tomography (CT) is the standard method for postoperative imaging of the electrode position. CT scans accurately reflect electrode depth and position, which is essential prior to use. However, routine CT examinations expose patients to radiation, which is especially problematic in children. We examined whether new CT protocols could reduce radiation doses while preserving diagnostic accuracy. METHODS To investigate whether electrode position can be assessed by low-dose CT protocols, a cadaveric lamb model was used because the inner ear morphology is similar to humans. The scans were performed at various volumetric CT dose-indexes CTDIvol)/kV combinations. For each constant CTDIvol the tube voltage was varied (i.e., 80, 100, 120 and 140kV). This procedure was repeated at different CTDIvol values (21mGy, 11mGy, 5.5mGy, 2.8mGy and 1.8mGy). To keep the CTDIvol constant at different tube voltages, the tube current values were adjusted. Independent evaluations of the images were performed by two experienced and blinded neuroradiologists. The criteria diagnostic usefulness, image quality and artifacts (scaled 1-4) were assessed in 14 cochlear-implanted cadaveric lamb heads with variable tube voltages. RESULTS Results showed that the standard CT dose could be substantially reduced without sacrificing diagnostic accuracy of electrode position. The assessment of the CI electrode position was feasible in almost all cases up to a CTDIvol of 2-3mGy. The number of artifacts did not increase for images within this dose range as compared to higher dosages. The extent of the artifacts caused by the implanted metal-containing CI electrode does not depend on the radiation dose and is not perceptibly influenced by changes in the tube voltage. Summarizing the evaluation of the CI electrode position is possible even at a very low radiation dose. CONCLUSIONS CT imaging of the temporal bone for postoperative electrode position control of the CI is possible with a very low and significantly radiation dose. The tube current-time product and voltage can be reduced by 50% without increasing artifacts. Low-dose postoperative CT scans are sufficient for localizing the CI electrode.

The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Clinical effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy for depression in routine care: A propensity score based comparison between randomized controlled trials and clinical practice

Background: The efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for the treatment of depressive disorders has been demonstrated in many randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study investigated whether for CBT similar effects can be expected under routine care conditions when the patients are comparable to those examined in RCTs. Method: N=574 CBT patients from an outpatient clinic were stepwise matched to the patients undergoing CBT in the National Institute of Mental Health Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program (TDCRP). First, the exclusion criteria of the RCT were applied to the naturalistic sample of the outpatient clinic. Second, propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust the remaining naturalistic sample on the basis of baseline covariate distributions. Matched samples were then compared regarding treatment effects using effect sizes, average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and recovery rates. Results: CBT in the adjusted naturalistic subsample was as effective as in the RCT. However, treatments lasted significantly longer under routine care conditions. Limitations: The samples included only a limited amount of common predictor variables and stemmed from different countries. There might be additional covariates, which could potentially further improve the matching between the samples. Conclusions: CBT for depression in clinical practice might be equally effective as manual-based treatments in RCTs when they are applied to comparable patients. The fact that similar effects under routine conditions were reached with more sessions, however, points to the potential to optimize treatments in clinical practice with respect to their efficiency.

Organisation of the equine immunoglobulin constant heavy chain genes. II. Equine cgamma genes.

The number of immunoglobulin G constant heavy chain genes (cgamma genes) varies broadly among mammalian species, reflecting structural and functional differences between expressed immunoglobulin G (IgG) isotypes and allotypes. Up to now equine IgG isotypes have been defined only at the biochemical and serological level. It is still not clear how many IgG isotypes exist in horses and whether there are any allotypes. Here, we describe the isolation and characterisation of equine cgamma genes. An equine genomic lambda phage library was screened with a human cgamma4 probe. Cross-hybridising equine cgamma sequences were cloned twice and characterised by restriction mapping with the human cgamma4 and a murine sgamma1 probe. Genomic equine DNA probes for both, cgamma genes and corresponding switch regions (sgamma), were isolated and used for a more detailed BamHI restriction analysis, comparing genomic DNA of various horses. This analysis reveals the existence of at least five, or probably six cgamma genes in the equine haploid genome. Beside the porcine system, this is the highest number of cgamma genes described for any mammalian species. Moreover, for two of these cgamma genes, BamHI restriction fragment length polymorphism became evident.

Organization of the equine immunoglobulin heavy chain constant region genes; III. Alignment of c mu, c gamma, c epsilon and c alpha genes.

Previous restriction analysis of cloned equine DNA and genomic DNA of equine peripheral blood mononuclear cells had indicated the existence of one c epsilon, one c alpha and up to six c gamma genes in the haploid equine genome. The c epsilon and c alpha genes have been aligned on a 30 kb DNA fragment in the order 5' c epsilon-c alpha 3'. Here we describe the alignment of the equine c mu and c gamma genes by deletion analysis of one IgM, four IgG and two equine light chain expressing heterohybridomas. This analysis establishes the existence of six c gamma genes per haploid genome. The genomic alignment of the cH-genes is 5' c mu/(/) c gamma 1/(/) c gamma 2/(/) c gamma 3/(/) c gamma 4/(/) c gamma 5/(/) c gamma 6/(/) c epsilon-c alpha 3', naming the c gamma genes according to their position relative to c mu. For three of the c gamma genes the corresponding IgG isotypes could be identified as IgGa for c gamma 1, IgG(T) for c gamma 3 and IgGb for c gamma 4.

Dimensions of projections of sets on Riemannian surfaces of constant curvature

We apply the theory of Peres and Schlag to obtain generic lower bounds for Hausdorff dimension of images of sets by orthogonal projections on simply connected two-dimensional Riemannian manifolds of constant curvature. As a conclusion we obtain appropriate versions of Marstrand's theorem, Kaufman's theorem, and Falconer's theorem in the above geometrical settings.

Comparison of Routine Brain Imaging at 3 T and 7 T.

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to compare quantitative and semiquantitative parameters (signal-to-noise ratio [SNR], contrast-to-noise ratio [CNR], image quality, diagnostic confidence) from a standard brain magnetic resonance imaging examination encompassing common neurological disorders such as demyelinating disease, gliomas, cerebrovascular disease, and epilepsy, with comparable sequence protocols and acquisition times at 3 T and at 7 T. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ten healthy volunteers and 4 subgroups of 40 patients in total underwent comparable magnetic resonance protocols with standard diffusion-weighted imaging, 2D and 3D turbo spin echo, 2D and 3D gradient echo and susceptibility-weighted imaging of the brain (10 sequences) at 3 T and 7 T. The subgroups comprised patients with either lesional (n = 5) or nonlesional (n = 4) epilepsy, intracerebral tumors (n = 11), demyelinating disease (n = 11) (relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis [MS, n = 9], secondary progressive MS [n = 1], demyelinating disease not further specified [n = 1]), or chronic cerebrovascular disorders [n = 9]). For quantitative analysis, SNR and CNR were determined. For a semiquantitative assessment of the diagnostic confidence, a 10-point scale diagnostic confidence score (DCS) was applied. Two experienced radiologists with additional qualification in neuroradiology independently assessed, blinded to the field strength, 3 pathology-specific imaging criteria in each of the 4 disease groups and rated their diagnostic confidence. The overall image quality was semiquantitatively assessed using a 4-point scale taking into account whether diagnostic decision making was hampered by artifacts or not. RESULTS Without correction for spatial resolution, SNR was higher at 3 T except in the T2 SPACE 3D, DWI single shot, and DIR SPACE 3D sequences. The SNR corrected by the ratio of 3 T/7 T voxel sizes was higher at 7 T than at 3 T in 10 of 11 sequences (all except for T1 MP2RAGE 3D).In CNR, there was a wide variation between sequences and patient cohorts, but average CNR values were broadly similar at 3 T and 7 T.DCS values for all 4 pathologic entities were higher at 7 T than at 3 T. The DCS was significantly higher at 7 T for diagnosis and exclusion of cortical lesions in vascular disease. A tendency to higher DCS at 7 T for cortical lesions in MS was observed, and for the depiction of a central vein and iron deposits within MS lesions. Despite motion artifacts, DCS values were higher at 7 T for the diagnosis and exclusion of hippocampal sclerosis in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (improved detection of the hippocampal subunits). Interrater agreement was 69.7% at 3 T and 93.3% at 7 T. There was no significant difference in the overall image quality score between 3 T and 7 T taking into account whether diagnostic decision making was hampered by artifacts or not. CONCLUSIONS Ultra-high-field magnetic resonance imaging at 7 T compared with 3 T yielded an improved diagnostic confidence in the most frequently encountered neurologic disorders. Higher spatial resolution and contrast were identified as the main contributory factors.

No Routine Postoperative Head CT following Elective Craniotomy - A Paradigm Shift?

INTRODUCTION Patient management following elective cranial surgery often includes routine postoperative computed tomography (CT). We analyzed whether a regime of early extubation and close neurological monitoring without routine CT is safe, and compared the rate of postoperative emergency neurosurgical intervention with published data. METHODS Four hundred ninety-two patients were prospectively analyzed; 360 had supra- and 132 had infratentorial lesions. Extubation within one hour after skin closure was aimed for in all cases. CT was performed within 48 hours only in cases of unexpected neurological findings. RESULTS Four-hundred sixty-nine of the 492 patients (95.3%) were extubated within one hour, 20 (4.1%) within 3 hours, and three (0.6%) within 3 to 10 hours. Emergency CT within 48 hours was performed for 43/492 (8.7%) cases. Rate of recraniotomy within 48 hours for patients with postoperative hemorrhage was 0.8% (n = 4), and 0.8% (n = 4) required placement of an external ventricular drain (EVD). Of 469 patients extubated within one hour, 3 required recraniotomy and 2 required EVD placements. Of 23 patients with delayed extubation, 1 recraniotomy and 2 EVDs were required. Failure to extubate within one hour was associated with a significantly higher risk of surgical intervention within 48 hours (rate 13.0%, p = 0.004, odds ratio 13.9, 95% confidence interval [3.11-62.37]). DISCUSSION Early extubation combined with close neurological monitoring is safe and omits the need for routine postoperative CT. Patients not extubated within one hour do need early CT, since they had a significantly increased risk of requiring emergency neurosurgical intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01987648.