Re-examining the U.K.'s greatest tornado outbreak: forecasting the limited extent of tornadoes along a cold front

On 23 November 1981, a strong cold front swept across the U.K., producing tornadoes from the west to the east coasts. An extensive campaign to collect tornado reports by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) resulted in 104 reports, the largest U.K. outbreak. The front was simulated with a convection-permitting numerical model down to 200-m horizontal grid spacing to better understand its evolution and meteorological environment. The event was typical of tornadoes in the U.K., with convective available potential energy (CAPE) less than 150 J kg-1, 0-1-km wind shear of 10-20 m s-1, and a narrow cold-frontal rainband forming precipitation cores and gaps. A line of cyclonic absolute vorticity existed along the front, with maxima as large as 0.04 s-1. Some hook-shaped misovortices bore kinematic similarity to supercells. The narrow swath along which the line was tornadic was bounded on the equatorward side by weak vorticity along the line and on the poleward side by zero CAPE, enclosing a region where the environment was otherwise favorable for tornadogenesis. To determine if the 104 tornado reports were plausible, first possible duplicate reports were eliminated, resulting in as few as 58 tornadoes to as many as 90. Second, the number of possible parent misovortices that may have spawned tornadoes is estimated from model output. The number of plausible tornado reports in the 200-m grid-spacing domain was 22 and as many as 44, whereas the model simulation was used to estimate 30 possible parent misovortices within this domain. These results suggest that 90 reports was plausible.

The new Brazilian bankruptcy law and its impacts on the credit market

No início de 2005, uma nova Lei de Falências foi aprovada pelo Congresso Nacional, entrando em meados de junho do mesmo ano. A nova legislação ampliou o grau de proteção ao credor em muitos aspectos. Este artigo busca investigar algumas das consequências empíricas dessa nova lei sobre o mercado de crédito, utilizado dados de firmas argentinas, brasileiras, chilenas e mexicanas para estimar dois modelos para dados em painel: o primeiro com tendências específicas para cada firma e o outro com tendência macro comum às firmas de um mesmo país. A estimação dos dois modelos produziu resultados similares. Foram encontrados impactos significativos sobre a oferta de crédito, o custo da dívida e a oferta de crédito segurado, não-segurado e de longo prazo. Não foram encontrados impactos sobre o total de dívida de curto prazo.

The drivers for entry and expansion modes of U.S.- based MNES in Brazil

The drivers for entry and expansion modes of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have been studied by several authors over the last decades but empirical results have been historically mixed. More recently, Hennart (2009) argued that the reason for the inconsistent results to date resided in the fact that prior theories assumed that local markets could be freely accessed based on a unilateral decision by the MNEs, and then proposes an alternative framework in which the entry and expansion modes of MNEs in foreign countries are a solution based on the relative efficiency of both markets. In this study, the proposed framework is tested against the prior theories based on investments made by U.S.-based MNEs in Brazil from 2005 to 2010. The results suggest that the local market characteristics, more specifically the concentration ratio at the firm and asset levels, are indeed important to influence the entry and expansion mode of U.S.-based MNEs in Brazil, reinforcing the argument against MNEs-centric theories. However, differently from Hennart’s proposition, we were not able to confirm the hypotheses that the MNEs skills are relevant to influence the final solution. We have also tested whether the difference in growth rate between the two countries could be a driver for MNEs to favor acquisition over greenfield given the opportunity cost of postponing the investments. The test result, based on our sample, was not able to confirm this hypothesis.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Fission track and U-Pb in situ dating applied to detrital zircon from the Vale do Rio do Peixe Formation, Bauru Group, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Closing the SU(3)(L)circle times U(1)(X) symmetry at the electroweak scale

We show that some models with SU(3)(C)circle times SU(3)(L)circle times U(1)(X) gauge symmetry can be realized at the electroweak scale and that this is a consequence of an approximate global SU(2)(L+R) symmetry. This symmetry implies a condition among the vacuum expectation value of one of the neutral Higgs scalars, the U(1)(X)'s coupling constant, g(X), the sine of the weak mixing angle sin theta(W), and the mass of the W boson, M-W. In the limit in which this symmetry is valid it avoids the tree level mixing of the Z boson of the standard model with the extra Z(') boson. We have verified that the oblique T parameter is within the allowed range indicating that the radiative corrections that induce such a mixing at the 1-loop level are small. We also show that a SU(3)(L+R) custodial symmetry implies that in some of the models we have to include sterile (singlets of the 3-3-1 symmetry) right-handed neutrinos with Majorana masses, since the seesaw mechanism is mandatory to obtain light active neutrinos. Moreover, the approximate SU(2)(L+R)subset of SU(3)(L+R) symmetry implies that the extra nonstandard particles of these 3-3-1 models can be considerably lighter than it had been thought before so that new physics can be really just around the corner.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

U Pb and Sm Nd geochronologic studies of the eastern Borborema Province, Northeastern Brazil: initial conclusions

The Borborema Province of NE Brasil comprises the central part of a wide Pan-African-Brasiliano orogenetic belt that formed as a consequence of late Neoproterozoic convergence and collision of the São Luis-West Africa craton and the São Francisco-Congo-Kasai cratons. New Sm Nd and U Pb results from the eastern part of this province help to define the basic internal architecture and pre-collisional history of this province, with particular emphasis on delineating older cratonic terranes, their fragmentation during the Mesoproterozoic, and their assembly into West Gondwana during the Pan African-Brasiliano orogeny at ca. 600 Ma. The region can be divided into three major geotectonic domains: a) Rio Piranhas-Caldas Brandão massif, with overlying Paleoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic supracrustal rocks, north of the Patos Lineament; b) the Archean to Paleoproterozoic São Francisco craton (SFC) to the south; and c) a complex domain of Paleoproterozoic to Archean basement blocks with several intervening Mesoproterozoic to Neoproterozoic fold belts in the center (south of Patos Lineament and north of SFC). The northern and central domains comprise the Borborema Province. Archean basement gneiss and Transamazonian granulite of northern SFC are exposed in the southern part of the central domain, underlying southern parts of the Sergipano fold belt. Basement in the Rio Piranhas massif appears to consist mostly of Transamazonian (2.1 to 2.2 Ga) gneissic rocks; Nd model ages (TDM) of ca. 2.6 Ga for 2.15 Ga gneisses indicate a substantial Archean component in the protoliths to these gneisses. The Caldas Brandão massif to the east yields both Transamazonian and Archean U Pb zircon and Nd (TDM) ages, indicating a complex architecture. Metasedimentary rocks of the Jucurutu Formation yield detrital zircons with original crystallization ages as young as 1.8 Ga, indicating that these rocks may be late Paleoproterozoic and correlate with other ca. 1.8 Ga cratonic supracrustal rocks in Brazil such as the Roraima Group and Espinhaço Group. Most metavolcanic and pre-Brasiliano granitic units of the Sergipano (SDS), Pajeú-Paraíba (SPP), Riacho Pontal (SRP), and Piancó-Alto Brígida (SPAB) fold belts in the central domain formed ~ 1.0 ± 0.1 Ga, based on U Pb ages of zircons. Nd model ages (TDM) for these same rocks, as well as Brasiliano granites intruded into them and large parts of the Pernambuco-Alagoas massif, are commonly 1.3-1.7 Ga, indicating that rocks of the fold belts were not wholly derived from either older (> 2.1 Ga) or juvenile (ca. 1.0 Ga) crust, but include mixtures of both components. A simple interpretation of Brasiliano granite genesis and the Nd data implies that there is no Transamazonian or Archean basement underlying large parts of these fold belts or of the Pernambuco-Alagoas massif. An exception is a belt of syenitic Brasiliano plutons (Syenitoid Line) and host gneisses between SPAB and SPP that clearly has a Transamazonian (or older) source. In addition, there are several smaller blocks of Archean to Transamazonian gneiss that can be defined within and among these fold belts. These blocks do not appear to constitute a continuous basement complex, but appear to be isolated older crustal fragments. Our data support a model in which ca. 1.0 Ga rifting was an important tectonic and crust-forming event along the northern edge of the São Francisco craton. Our data also show that significant parts of the Borborema Province are not remobilized Transamazonian to Archean crust, but that Mesoproterozoic crust is a major feature of the Province. There are several small remnants of older crust within the area dominated by Mesoproterozoic crust, suggesting that the rifting event created several small continental fragments that were later incorporated into the Brasiliano collisional orogen. We cannot at present determine if the Rio Piranhas-Caldas Brandão massifs and the older crustal blocks of the central domain were originally part of the São Francisco craton or whether some (or all) of them came from more exotic parts of the Proterozoic Earth. Finally, our data have not yet revealed any juvenile terranes of either Transamazonian or Brasiliano age. © 1995.

Tectonic setting and U/Pb zircon dating of the plutonic Socorro Complex in the Transpressive Rio Paraíba do Sul Shear Belt, SE Brazil

The Precambrian Rio Paraíba do Sul Shear Belt comprises a 200-km-wide anastomosing network of NE-SW trending ductile shear zones extending over 1000 km of the southeastern coast of Brazil. Granulitic, gneissic-migmatitic, and granitoid terrains as well as low- to medium-grade metavolcanosedimentary sequences are included within it. These rocks were affected by strong contractional, tangential tectonics, due to west-northwestward oblique convergence of continental blocks. Subsequent transpressional tectonics accomodated large dextral, orogen-parallel movements and shortening. The plutonic Socorro Complex is one of many deformed granites with a foliation subparallel to that of the shear belt and exposes crosscutting relationships between its tectonic, magmatic, and metamorphic structures. These relationships point to a continuous magmatic evolution related to regional thrusts and strike slip, ductile shear zones. The tectonic and magmatic structural features of the Serra do Lopo Granite provide a model of emplacement by sheeting along shear zones during coeval strike-slip and cross shortening of country rocks. Geochronological data indicate that the main igneous activity of Socorro Complex spanned at least 55 million years, from the late stage of the northwestward ductile thrusting (650 Ma), through right-lateral strike slip (595 Ma) deformation. The country rocks yield discordant age data, which reflect a strong imprint of the Transamazonian tectono-metamorphic event (1.9 to 2.0 Ma). We propose a model for the origin of calcalkaline granites of the Ribeira Belt by partial melting of the lower crust with small contributions of the lithospheric mantle during transpressional thickening of plate margins, which were bounded by deep shear zones. The transpressional regime also seems to have focused granite migration from deeper into higher crustal levels along these shear zones.

Evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin in southern Brazil derived from zircon and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission-track data

The area between São Paulo and Porto Alegre in southeastern Brazil plays a key area to understand and quantify the evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in Brazil. In this contribution, we present new thermochronological data attained by fission-track and (U-Th-Sm)/He analysis on apatites and zircons from metamorphic, sedimentary and intrusive rocks. The zircon fission-track ages range between 108.4 (15.0) and 539.9 (68.4). Ma, the zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 72.9 (5.8) and 525.1(2.4). Ma, whereas the apatite fission-track ages range between 40.0 (5.3) and 134.7 (8.0). Ma, and the apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 32.1 (1.5) and 93.0 (2.5). Ma. The spatial distribution of these ages shows three distinct blocks with a different evolution cut by old fracture zones. While the central block exhibits an old stable block, the Northern and especially the Southern block underwent complex post-rift exhumation. The sample of the Northern block shows two distinct cooling phases in the Upper Cretaceous and the Paleogene to Neogene. After sedimentation of the Permian sandstones the samples of the Central block were never heated up over 100. °C with a following moderate to fast cooling phase in Cretaceous to Eocene time and a fast cooling between Oligocene to Miocene. The five thermal models obtained in the Southern block indicate a complex evolution with three cooling phases. The exhumation events of the three blocks correspond with the Paraná-Etendekka event, the alkaline intrusions due to the Trinidad hotspot, and the evolution of the continental rift basins in SE Brazil and are, therefore, most likely to be the major force for the post-rift evolution of the passive continental margin in SE Brazil, which therefore corresponds to the three main phases of the Andean orogeny. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

La política de los países de América Latina y el Caribe en materia de transporte marítimo regular y la Convención de las NU sobre un Código de Conducta de las Conferencias Marítimas = Latin American and Caribbean liner shipping policies and the UN Convention on a Code of Conduct for Liner Conferences

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