Second-Order Approximation to the Rotemberg Model around a Distorted Steady State

Less is known about social welfare objectives when it is costly to change prices, as in Rotemberg (1982), compared with Calvo-type models. We derive a quadratic approximate welfare function around a distorted steady state for the costly price adjustment model. We highlight the similarities and differences to the Calvo setup. Both models imply inflation and output stabilization goals. It is explained why the degree of distortion in the economy influences inflation aversion in the Rotemberg framework in a way that differs from the Calvo setup.

Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

Transcriptional profiling of CD4 T cells identifies distinct subgroups of HIV-1 elite controllers.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) elite controllers maintain undetectable levels of viral replication in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but their underlying immunological and virological characteristics may vary. Here, we used a whole-genome transcriptional profiling approach to characterize gene expression signatures of CD4 T cells from an unselected cohort of elite controllers. The transcriptional profiles for the majority of elite controllers were similar to those of ART-treated patients but different from those of HIV-1-negative persons. Yet, a smaller proportion of elite controllers showed an alternative gene expression pattern that was indistinguishable from that of HIV-1-negative persons but different from that of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated individuals. Elite controllers with the latter gene expression signature had significantly higher CD4 T cell counts and lower levels of HIV-1-specific CD8(+) T cell responses but did not significantly differ from other elite controllers in terms of HLA class I alleles, HIV-1 viral loads determined by ultrasensitive single-copy PCR assays, or chemokine receptor polymorphisms. Thus, these data identify a specific subgroup of elite controllers whose immunological and gene expression characteristics approximate those of HIV-1-negative persons.

Linking conflict to inequality and polarization

In this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict. We show that the (equilibrium) level of conflict can be expressed as an (approximate) linear function of the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman fractionalization index, and a specific measure of polarization due to Esteban and Ray

A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity

This paper develops a new test of true versus spurious long memory, based on log-periodogram estimation of the long memory parameter using skip-sampled data. A correction factor is derived to overcome the bias in this estimator due to aliasing. The procedure is designed to be used in the context of a conventional test of significance of the long memory parameter, and composite test procedure described that has the properties of known asymptotic size and consistency. The test is implemented using the bootstrap, with the distribution under the null hypothesis being approximated using a dependent-sample bootstrap technique to approximate short-run dependence following fractional differencing. The properties of the test are investigated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The procedure is illustrated by applications to exchange rate volatility and dividend growth series.

Geochemistry of highly acidic mine water following disposal into a natural lake with carbonate bedrock

Acid mine drainage (AMD) from the Zn-Pb(-Ag-Bi-Cu) deposit of Cerro de Pasco (Central Peru) and waste water from a Cu-extraction plant has been discharged since 1981 into Lake Yanamate, a natural lake with carbonate bedrock. The lake has developed a highly acidic pH of similar to 1. Mean lake water chemistry was characterized by 16,775 mg/L acidity as CaCO(3), 4330 mg/L Fe and 29,250 mg/L SO(4). Mean trace element concentrations were 86.8 mg/L Cu, 493 mg/L Zn, 2.9 mg/L Pb and 48 mg/L As, which did not differ greatly from the discharged AMD. Most elements showed increasing concentrations from the surface to the lake bottom at a maximal depth of 41 m (e.g. from 3581 to 5433 mg/L Fe and 25,609 to 35,959 mg/L SO(4)). The variations in the H and 0 isotope compositions and the element concentrations within the upper 10 m of the water column suggest mixing with recently discharged AMD, shallow groundwater and precipitation waters. Below 15 m a stagnant zone had developed. Gypsum (saturation index, SI similar to 0.25) and anglesite (SI similar to 0.1) were in equilibrium with lake water. Jarosite was oversaturated (SI similar to 1.7) in the upper part of the water column, resulting in downward settling and re-dissolution in the lower part of the water column (SI similar to -0.7). Accordingly, jarosite was only found in sediments from less than 7 m water depth. At the lake bottom, a layer of gel-like material (similar to 90 wt.% water) of pH similar to 1 with a total organic C content of up to 4.40 wet wt.% originated from the kerosene discharge of the Cu-extraction plant and had contaminant element concentrations similar to the lake water. Below the organic layer followed a layer of gypsum with pH 1.5, which overlaid the dissolving carbonate sediments of pH 5.3-7. In these two layers the contaminant elements were enriched compared to lake water in the sequence As < Pb approximate to Cu < Cd < Zn = Mn with increasing depth. This sequence of enrichment was explained by the following processes: (i) adsorption of As on Fe-hydroxides coating plant roots at low pH (up to 3326 mg/kg As), (ii) adsorption at increasing pH near the gypsum/calcite boundary (up to 1812 mg/kg Pb, 2531 mg/kg Cu. and 36 mg/kg Cd), and (iii) precipitation of carbonates (up to 5177 mg/kg Zn and 810 mg/kg Mn: all data corrected to a wet base). The infiltration rate was approximately equal to the discharge rate, thus gypsum and hydroxide precipitation had not resulted in complete clogging of the lake bedrocks. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Quantification of Trypanosoma cruzi in the heart, lymph nodes and liver of experimentally inffected mice, using limiting dilution analysis

Limiting dilution analysis was used to quantify Trypanosoma cruzi in the lymph nodes, liver and heart of Swiss and C57 B1/10 mice. The results showed that, in Swiss and B1/10 mice infected with T. cruzi Y strain, the number of parasites/mg of tissue increased during the course of the infection in both types of mice, although a grater number of parasites were observed in heart tissue from Swiss mice than from B1/10. With regard to liver tissue, it was observed that the parasite load in the initial phase of infection was higher than in heart. In experiments using T. cruzi Colombian strain, the parasite load in the heart of Swiss and B1/10 mice increased relatively slowly, although high levels of parasitization were nonetheless observable by the end of the infection. As for the liver and lymph nodes, the concentration of parasites was lower over the entire course of infection than in heart. Both strains thus maintained their characteristic tissue tropisms. The limiting dilution assay (LDA) proved to be an appropriate method for more precise quantification of T. cruzi, comparing favorably with other direct microscopic methods that only give approximate scores.

Optimal exponent heat balance and refined integral methods applied to Stefan problems

When using a polynomial approximating function the most contentious aspect of the Heat Balance Integral Method is the choice of power of the highest order term. In this paper we employ a method recently developed for thermal problems, where the exponent is determined during the solution process, to analyse Stefan problems. This is achieved by minimising an error function. The solution requires no knowledge of an exact solution and generally produces significantly better results than all previous HBI models. The method is illustrated by first applying it to standard thermal problems. A Stefan problem with an analytical solution is then discussed and results compared to the approximate solution. An ablation problem is also analysed and results compared against a numerical solution. In both examples the agreement is excellent. A Stefan problem where the boundary temperature increases exponentially is analysed. This highlights the difficulties that can be encountered with a time dependent boundary condition. Finally, melting with a time-dependent flux is briefly analysed without applying analytical or numerical results to assess the accuracy.

Modelling the cooling of concrete by piped water

Piped water is used to remove hydration heat from concrete blocks during construction. In this paper we develop an approximate model for this process. The problem reduces to solving a one-dimensional heat equation in the concrete, coupled with a first order differential equation for the water temperature. Numerical results are presented and the effect of varying model parameters shown. An analytical solution is also provided for a steady-state constant heat generationmodel. This helps highlight the dependence on certain parameters and can therefore provide an aid in the design of cooling systems.

Application of standard and refined heat balance integral methods to one-dimensional Stefan problems

The work in this paper concerns the study of conventional and refined heat balance integral methods for a number of phase change problems. These include standard test problems, both with one and two phase changes, which have exact solutions to enable us to test the accuracy of the approximate solutions. We also consider situations where no analytical solution is available and compare these to numerical solutions. It is popular to use a quadratic profile as an approximation of the temperature, but we show that a cubic profile, seldom considered in the literature, is far more accurate in most circumstances. In addition, the refined integral method can give greater improvement still and we develop a variation on this method which turns out to be optimal in some cases. We assess which integral method is better for various problems, showing that it is largely dependent on the specified boundary conditions.

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for substance use disorders: direct interview versus family history method.

OBJECTIVES: Family studies typically use multiple sources of information on each individual including direct interviews and family history information. The aims of the present study were to: (1) assess agreement for diagnoses of specific substance use disorders between direct interviews and the family history method; (2) compare prevalence estimates according to the two methods; (3) test strategies to approximate prevalence estimates according to family history reports to those based on direct interviews; (4) determine covariates of inter-informant agreement; and (5) identify covariates that affect the likelihood of reporting disorders by informants. METHODS: Analyses were based on family study data which included 1621 distinct informant (first-degree relatives and spouses) - index subject pairs. RESULTS: Our main findings were: (1) inter-informant agreement was fair to good for all substance disorders, except for alcohol abuse; (2) the family history method underestimated the prevalence of drug but not alcohol use disorders; (3) lowering diagnostic thresholds for drug disorders and combining multiple family histories increased the accuracy of prevalence estimates for these disorders according to the family history method; (4) female sex of index subjects was associated with higher agreement for nearly all disorders; and (5) informants who themselves had a history of the same substance use disorder were more likely to report this disorder in their relatives, which entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation. CONCLUSION: Our findings have important implications for the best-estimate procedure applied in family studies.

EU cohesion aid to Spain: a data set. Part I: 2000-06 planning period

In this paper we construct a data set on EU cohesion aid to Spain during the planning period 2000-06. The data are disaggregated by region, year and function and attempt to approximate the timing of actual executed expenditure on assisted projects.

On estimation and identifiability issues of sex-linked inheritance with a case study of pigmentation in Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba)

Genetic evaluation using animal models or pedigree-based models generally assume only autosomal inheritance. Bayesian animal models provide a flexible framework for genetic evaluation, and we show how the model readily can accommodate situations where the trait of interest is influenced by both autosomal and sex-linked inheritance. This allows for simultaneous calculation of autosomal and sex-chromosomal additive genetic effects. Inferences were performed using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), a nonsampling-based Bayesian inference methodology. We provide a detailed description of how to calculate the inverse of the X- or Z-chromosomal additive genetic relationship matrix, needed for inference. The case study of eumelanic spot diameter in a Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba) population shows that this trait is substantially influenced by variation in genes on the Z-chromosome (sigma(2)(z) = 0.2719 and sigma(2)(a) = 0.4405). Further, a simulation study for this study system shows that the animal model accounting for both autosomal and sex-chromosome-linked inheritance is identifiable, that is, the two effects can be distinguished, and provides accurate inference on the variance components.

Bioinformática: identificar genes en una interfaz gráfica vía web para la comparación de genomas

Este trabajo desarrolla el proceso de diseño e implementación de una interfaz web que permite la exploración en detalle de las relaciones entre genomas completos. La interfaz permite la comparación simultánea de nueve genomas, representando en cada gráfica las relaciones entre cada par de genomas junto los genes identificados de cada uno de ellos. Es capaz de trabajar con genomas del dominio Eukaryota y se adapta a la capacidad de cómputo de la máquina cliente. La información representada son MUMs (Maximal Unique Matching, secuencia máxima y única encontrada en ambos genomas) y SuperMUMs (agrupación de MUMs mediante Approximate String Matching). Los datos son previamente calculados y accesibles desde un servidor web.