Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristics in a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When the goal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style and not to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors is larger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author. For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for example Mosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) or Lebart, Salem and Berry (1998). Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be “the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writters like Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translated several times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal (1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465, but it was not printed until 1490. There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition, where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while at the end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death of Martorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990), Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer (1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990). Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and therefore discriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample texts encompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44 conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that might indicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba and Ginebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383. Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the most frequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the features selected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore to three sequences of multinomial observations. Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3 describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the following sections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the method in section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma models onto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, the one in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of the correspondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the average word length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify the features that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavily on the use of generalized linear models

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 different compositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression model solely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions are applied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating the unknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephras into samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples is proposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets. This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as their focus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age of unknown tephra. Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

A method to obtain the integrated contour image in colour scenes

This paper describes a method to achieve the most relevant contours of an image. The presented method proposes to integrate the information of the local contours from chromatic components such as H, S and I, taking into account the criteria of coherence of the local contour orientation values obtained from each of these components. The process is based on parametrizing pixel by pixel the local contours (magnitude and orientation values) from the H, S and I images. This process is carried out individually for each chromatic component. If the criterion of dispersion of the obtained orientation values is high, this chromatic component will lose relevance. A final processing integrates the extracted contours of the three chromatic components, generating the so-called integrated contours image

Use of decision trees in colour feature selection: application to object recognition in outdoor scenes

A new method for the automated selection of colour features is described. The algorithm consists of two stages of processing. In the first, a complete set of colour features is calculated for every object of interest in an image. In the second stage, each object is mapped into several n-dimensional feature spaces in order to select the feature set with the smallest variables able to discriminate the remaining objects. The evaluation of the discrimination power for each concrete subset of features is performed by means of decision trees composed of linear discrimination functions. This method can provide valuable help in outdoor scene analysis where no colour space has been demonstrated as being the most suitable. Experiment results recognizing objects in outdoor scenes are reported

An improved method for discovering link criticality in transport networks

Quantitatively assessing the importance or criticality of each link in a network is of practical value to operators, as that can help them to increase the network's resilience, provide more efficient services, or improve some other aspect of the service. Betweenness is a graph-theoretical measure of centrality that can be applied to communication networks to evaluate link importance. However, as we illustrate in this paper, the basic definition of betweenness centrality produces inaccurate estimations as it does not take into account some aspects relevant to networking, such as the heterogeneity in link capacity or the difference between node-pairs in their contribution to the total traffic. A new algorithm for discovering link centrality in transport networks is proposed in this paper. It requires only static or semi-static network and topology attributes, and yet produces estimations of good accuracy, as verified through extensive simulations. Its potential value is demonstrated by an example application. In the example, the simple shortest-path routing algorithm is improved in such a way that it outperforms other more advanced algorithms in terms of blocking ratio

Asymmetric tunnels in P2MP LSPs as a label space reduction method

The objective of traffic engineering is to optimize network resource utilization. Although several works have been published about minimizing network resource utilization, few works have focused on LSR (label switched router) label space. This paper proposes an algorithm that takes advantage of the MPLS label stack features in order to reduce the number of labels used in LSPs. Some tunnelling methods and their MPLS implementation drawbacks are also discussed. The described algorithm sets up NHLFE (next hop label forwarding entry) tables in each LSR, creating asymmetric tunnels when possible. Experimental results show that the described algorithm achieves a great reduction factor in the label space. The presented works apply for both types of connections: P2MP (point-to-multipoint) and P2P (point-to-point)

Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation

Citation auctions as a method to improve selection of scientific papers

This paper describes the basis of citation auctions as a new approach to selecting scientific papers for publication. Our main idea is to use an auction for selecting papers for publication through - differently from the state of the art - bids that consist of the number of citations that a scientist expects to receive if the paper is published. Hence, a citation auction is the selection process itself, and no reviewers are involved. The benefits of the proposed approach are two-fold. First, the cost of refereeing will be either totally eliminated or significantly reduced, because the process of citation auction does not need prior understanding of the paper's content to judge the quality of its contribution. Additionally, the method will not prejudge the content of the paper, so it will increase the openness of publications to new ideas. Second, scientists will be much more committed to the quality of their papers, paying close attention to distributing and explaining their papers in detail to maximize the number of citations that the paper receives. Sample analyses of the number of citations collected in papers published in years 1999-2004 for one journal, and in years 2003-2005 for a series of conferences (in a totally different discipline), via Google scholar, are provided. Finally, a simple simulation of an auction is given to outline the behaviour of the citation auction approach

A hybrid method for sag source location in power network

The work presented in this paper belongs to the power quality knowledge area and deals with the voltage sags in power transmission and distribution systems. Propagating throughout the power network, voltage sags can cause plenty of problems for domestic and industrial loads that can financially cost a lot. To impose penalties to responsible party and to improve monitoring and mitigation strategies, sags must be located in the power network. With such a worthwhile objective, this paper comes up with a new method for associating a sag waveform with its origin in transmission and distribution networks. It solves this problem through developing hybrid methods which hire multiway principal component analysis (MPCA) as a dimension reduction tool. MPCA reexpresses sag waveforms in a new subspace just in a few scores. We train some well-known classifiers with these scores and exploit them for classification of future sags. The capabilities of the proposed method for dimension reduction and classification are examined using the real data gathered from three substations in Catalonia, Spain. The obtained classification rates certify the goodness and powerfulness of the developed hybrid methods as brand-new tools for sag classification

Research Method Overview: Experimental and Comparative Methods

Experimental and comparative methods in the social sciences

The playful as a psycho-pedagogic method: one experience in preventing youth drug dependence

This participatory action research was based on a experience of educational intervention on La Cruz and Bello Oriente (Manrique-Medellin), a marginal zone in the northeastern part of the Commune 3 in Medellin,. Colombia. In this marginal sector, psychosocial problems seem to be associated to limited educational and employment opportunities, domestic violence, illegal armed forces, sexual abuse, social discrimination, and lack of adequate public services, among others.  All these are also considered as risk factors for drug dependency.  We used a structured interview designed to identify leisure tendencies, use of free time, and tendencies in recreational activities. Data from the interview were triangulated with information collected by observation and in field work and used to build a psycho-pedagogic method based on play and leisure activities. The effects of the use of this educational intervention on the satisfaction of human needs were analyzed in light of the theory of Manfred Max-Neef. Results point out the need for new educational strategies aimed to promote creativity, solidarity, mental, physical and social health, more enthusiasm and motivation and in general, positive attitudes that help prevent drug dependence.

The innate concepts in Chomsky’s work: definition and proposal of an empirical method for their study

This article focuses on innate concepts: their definition, according to the linguistic work of Noam Chomsky, and the outline of a method for their study. As an introduction to the subject some academic conceptions of the concept acquisition are pointed out, and it is claimed that there is a lack of an empirical method for the study of innate concepts. Next, the article presents the definition that Chomsky has defended over time about such concepts. Finally, in a theoretical way, it presents the conditions for an empirical procedure for the study of innate concepts, called semantic analysis of corpus

Palm-plantar pallor as a diagnostic method of mild-moderate anemia

Objective: to determine the palm-plant paleness’ characteristics in Colombian infant rural population, as a diagnostic method of anemia, and to establish a correlation between the finding of palm-plant paleness and the Hematocrit values. Methodology: a cross sectional study was used to evaluate 169 boys and girls, between 2 months and 12 years old, of the rural area of San Vicente del Caguan, who entered into a Health Campaign. Following the signature of an informed consent, parents accept their children to participate in the study. Those with acute or chronic pathologies were excluded. The presence of palm-plant paleness was determined by observers trained in the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) Strategy. Hematocrit was measured to all children, as well as a peripheral blood smear. Interrater concordance evaluation (Kappa index) was determined through a pilot test and a validation (sensitivity, specificity) was performed, using Hematocrit as the standard. Results: 93 of the participants were male and 77 were female. 45% of them had palm paleness. The Hematocrit showed anemia in 34.1% of the children. The validation analysis demonstrated a 67.2% of sensibility, a 66.6% of specificity, a 51.3% of positive predictive values and a 79.5% of negative predictive values. Hypochromic and Eosinophilia were found in most of the peripheral blood smears’ children with anemia. Conclusions: although this tool presents a low sensibility and specificity for low/moderated anemia, it is useful for excluding it in infants without palm paleness.

Excessive work or addiction to work: workaholism in a Colombian company. Pilot study trough application of DUWAS test

This paper examines the workaholism phenomenon in different work situations in Colombian company. Workaholism was defined as the individual’s steady and considerable allocation of time to work, which is not derived from external necessities (1). The research studies about workaholics and workaholism have been increasing a lot in the last years (2). Workaholism is an addiction that actually is affecting a lot of people around the world and has serious consequences in personal life, in the community and also in economy. Some of these researches are directed to explore ways to diagnose when a person is workaholic and when this situation may affect the performanceof the individual in work, daily life activities and especially in psychosocial area. Objective: this pilot study contributes to identify if Colombian workers present the main characteristicsof workaholism and if the job they perform is related to the presence of the characteristics of this addiction. Materials and method: for this pilot study used the Dutch Work Addiction Scale(DUWAS), this test suggests when a person has work addiction, trough the evaluation of two main components working excessively and working compulsively. Results: the study find differences for the two groups: the 67% of the AE group are over the average while only the 33% of the members of the O group are over it. Conclusions: these percentages show that the combinations of the components of workaholism are more evident in the population belonging to the administrative/executive jobs group, giving evidence that workaholism is presented in greater proportion in the population performance management positions.

Statistical inference for testing Gini coefficients: an application for Colombia

This paper uses Colombian household survey data collected over the period 1984-2005 to estimate Gini coe¢ cients along with their corresponding standard errors. We Önd a statistically signiÖcant increase in wage income inequality following the adoption of the liberalisation measures of the early 1990s, and mixed evidence during the recovery years that followed the economic recession of the late 1990s. We also Önd that in several cases the observed di§erences in the Gini coe¢ cients across cities have not been statistically signiÖcant.