831 resultados para Angle of 95% confidence


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Background Cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. Objectives This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. Design Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive–behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive–behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother–child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). Setting A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. Participants Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. Interventions All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. Main outcome measures Primary clinical outcomes were the child’s primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost–utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. Results MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. Conclusions Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. Funding This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC–NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.

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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with ‘business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

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This paper describes new advances in the exploitation of oxygen A-band measurements from POLDER3 sensor onboard PARASOL, satellite platform within the A-Train. These developments result from not only an account of the dependence of POLDER oxygen parameters to cloud optical thickness τ and to the scene's geometrical conditions but also, and more importantly, from the finer understanding of the sensitivity of these parameters to cloud vertical extent. This sensitivity is made possible thanks to the multidirectional character of POLDER measurements. In the case of monolayer clouds that represent most of cloudy conditions, new oxygen parameters are obtained and calibrated from POLDER3 data colocalized with the measurements of the two active sensors of the A-Train: CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CloudSat. From a parameterization that is (μs, τ) dependent, with μs the cosine of the solar zenith angle, a cloud top oxygen pressure (CTOP) and a cloud middle oxygen pressure (CMOP) are obtained, which are estimates of actual cloud top and middle pressures (CTP and CMP). Performances of CTOP and CMOP are presented by class of clouds following the ISCCP classification. In 2008, the coefficient of the correlation between CMOP and CMP is 0.81 for cirrostratus, 0.79 for stratocumulus, 0.75 for deep convective clouds. The coefficient of the correlation between CTOP and CTP is 0.75, 0.73, and 0.79 for the same cloud types. The score obtained by CTOP, defined as the confidence in the retrieval for a particular range of inferred value and for a given error, is higher than the one of MODIS CTP estimate. Scores of CTOP are the highest for bin value of CTP superior in numbers. For liquid (ice) clouds and an error of 30 hPa (50 hPa), the score of CTOP reaches 50% (70%). From the difference between CTOP and CMOP, a first estimate of the cloud vertical extent h is possible. A second estimate of h comes from the correlation between the angular standard deviation of POLDER oxygen pressure σPO2 and the cloud vertical extent. This correlation is studied in detail in the case of liquid clouds. It is shown to be spatially and temporally robust, except for clouds above land during winter months. The analysis of the correlation's dependence on the scene's characteristics leads to a parameterization providing h from σPO2. For liquid water clouds above ocean in 2008, the mean difference between the actual cloud vertical extent and the one retrieved from σPO2 (from the pressure difference) is 5 m (−12 m). The standard deviation of the mean difference is close to 1000 m for the two methods. POLDER estimates of the cloud geometrical thickness obtain a global score of 50% confidence for a relative error of 20% (40%) of the estimate for ice (liquid) clouds over ocean. These results need to be validated outside of the CALIPSO/CloudSat track.

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European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.

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To determine whether changes in dietary intakes predict weight loss, we studied 80 overweight adults who attended a nutritional counseling program during 6 months of follow-up at a primary health care center in Brazil. Habitual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline and after 6 months. The mean age (+/-SD) of the participants was 46.5 +/- 9.5 years, and their mean body mass index was 29 +/- 3 kg/m(2) at baseline. After 6 months, the differences in body weight and fruit/vegetable intake were -1.4 +/- 3 kg and 109 +/- 320 g daily, respectively. Using multiple linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, changes in walking time, and total energy intake, the increased intake of dietary fiber from fruits/vegetables was associated with a greater weight loss (beta 1 [95% confidence interval (CI)] = -0.180 [-0.269, -0.0911) after 6 months of follow-up. Similar results were observed for increased intake of vegetables (beta 1 [95% CI] = -0.00497 [-0.008, -0.0021) and fruits (beta 1 [95% CI] = -0.00290 [-0.005, -0.001]) as predictors of weight loss. The increase of 100 g/d of vegetables and fruits represented a body weight loss of 500 and 300 g after 6 months, respectively (P <.05). Our findings support the relevance of increased intakes of fruits and vegetables that may help avoid weight gain in overweight adults. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Background: Bilateral mammaplasty or mastopexy is frequently used for oncoplastic objectives. However, little information has been available regarding outcome following immediate and delayed reconstruction. Method: Patients were divided into Group I (immediate reconstruction) and Group II (delayed reconstruction). Retrospective review was performed to compare complications, length of hospital stay, revision surgeries, and satisfaction. The associations between the complications with potential risk factors (timing, age, body mass index, smoking, and comorbid medical conditions) were analyzed. Results: There were a total of 144 patients with a mean follow-up of 47 months. Of the 106 patients in Group I, complications occurred in 24 (22.6%), skin necrosis was observed in 7.5%, fat necrosis in 5.6%, and 6.6% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.89 days. Of the 38 patients of the Group II, complications occurred in 12 (31.5%), skin necrosis was observed in 7 (18.4%), fat necrosis in 4 (10.5%), and 5.2% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.35 days. Increased length of hospital stay greater than 1 day (P < 0.001) and the number of revision surgeries (P = 0.043) were associated with the timing of the reconstruction. In univariate analysis, no difference between groups was found with respect to complication incidence (P = 0.275); however, after adjusting for other risk factors, the probability of complications tend to be higher for Group II (OR = 2.65; 95% confidence interval - 1.01-7.00; P = 0.049). Conclusions: On the basis of the results of our study, the probability of complications tends to be higher for delayed reconstructions, and it is demonstrated that obesity and smoking are risk factors for complications. Ultimately, these data may facilitate the provision of individualized risk information for shared medical decision-making.

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There is worldwide recognition that the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity-related health problems is rapidly increasing in low- and middle-income countries. Environmental determinants of obesity are likely to differ between countries, particularly in those undergoing rapid socioeconomic and nutrition transitions such as Brazil. This study aims to describe some built environment and local food environment variables and to explore their association with the overweight rate and diet and physical activity area-level aggregated indicators of adults living in the city of Sao Paulo, the largest city in Brazil. This formative study includes an ecological analysis of environmental factors associated with overweight across 31 submunicipalities of the city of Sao Paulo using statistical and spatial analyses. Average prevalence of overweight was 41.69% (95% confidence interval 38.74, 44.64), ranging from 27.14% to 60.75% across the submunicipalities. There was a wide geographical variation of both individual diet and physical activity, and indicators of food and built environments, favoring wealthier areas. After controlling for area socioeconomic status, there was a positive correlation between regular fruits and vegetables (FV) intake and density of FV specialized food markets (r = 0.497; p < 0.001), but no relationship between fast-food restaurant density and overweight prevalence was found. A negative association between overweight prevalence and density of parks and public sport facilities was seen (r = -0.527; p < 0.05). Understanding the relationship between local neighborhood environments and increasing rates of poor diet, physical activity, and obesity is essential in countries undergoing rapid economic and urban development, such as Brazil, in order to provide insights for policies to reduce increasing rates of NCDs and food access and health inequalities.

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Background: Brazil implemented routine immunization with the human rotavirus vaccine, Rotarix, in 2006 and vaccination coverage reached 81% in 2008 in Sao Paulo. Our aim was to assess the impact of immunization on the incidence of severe rotavirus acute gastroenteritis (AGE). Methods: We performed a 5-year (2004-2008) prospective surveillance at a sentinel hospital in Sao Paulo, with routine testing for rotavirus in all children less than 5 years of age hospitalized with AGE. Genotypes of positive samples were determined by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Results: During the study, 655 children hospitalized with AGE were enrolled; of whom 169 (25.8%) were positive for rotavirus. In the post-vaccine period, a 59% reduction in the number of hospitalizations of rotavirus AGE and a 42.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.6%-59.0%; P = 0.001) reduction in the proportion of rotavirus-positive results among children younger than 5 years were observed, with the greatest decline among infants (69.2%; 95% CI, 24.7%-87.4%; P = 0.004). Furthermore, the number of all-cause hospitalizations for AGE was reduced by 29% among children aged <5 years. The onset and peak incidences of rotavirus AGE occurred 3 months later in the 2007 and 2008 seasons compared with previous years. Genotype G2 accounted for 15%, 70%, and 100% of all cases identified, respectively, in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Conclusions: After vaccine implementation, a marked decline in rotavirus AGE hospitalizations was demonstrated among children younger than 5 years of age, with the greatest reduction in the age groups targeted for vaccination. The predominance of genotype G2P[4] highlights the need of continued postlicensure surveillance studies.

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We describe a cross-sectional, survey to identify risk factors for colonisation of neonates by extended-spectrum P-Lactamase (ESBL)-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. This occurred following exposure to a colonised healthcare worker during an outbreak in an intermediate-risk neonatal. unit. In total, 120 neonates admitted consecutively during a three-month period were screened for ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae by rectal swabbing and 27 were identified as colonised. Multivariate analysis showed colonisation to be independently associated with use of antibiotics and absence of breastfeeding. Previous use of antibiotics presented an odds ratio (OR) of 12.3 [95% confidence interval. (Cl): 3.66-41.2, P < 0.001]. The most commonly used antibiotics were penicillin and amikacin. Breastfeeding was associated with reduced risk for colonisation (OR: 0.22; 95% Cl: 0.05-0.99; P = 0.049). Nine isotates recovered during the first stage of the outbreak and 27 isolates from surveillance cultures were typed thereafter by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, revealing six different profiles (A-F). Clones A, C, and E were implicated in the first stage of the outbreak, whereas among the 27 strains recovered from surveillance cultures, all six clones were identified. Clone A was also found on the hand of a nursing auxiliary with onychomycosis. We concluded that prior antimicrobial use predisposed to colonisation. The possible role of breastfeeding as a protective factor needs to be further elucidated. Detection of different genotypes of ESBL-producing K. pneumonioe suggests that dissemination of mobile genetic elements bearing the ESBL gene may have been superimposed on the simple dissemination of a clone during the outbreak. (c) 2008 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background. Malaria is one of the most significant infectious diseases in the world and is responsible for a large proportion of infant deaths. Toll-like receptors (TLRs), key components of innate immunity, are central to countering infection. Variants in the TLR-signaling pathway are associated with susceptibility to infectious diseases. Methods. We genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) of the genes associated with the TLR-signaling pathway in patients with mild malaria and individuals with asymptomatic Plasmodium infections by means of polymerase chain reaction. Results. Genotype distributions for the TLR-1 I602S differed significantly between patients with mild malaria and persons with asymptomatic infection. The TLR-1 602S allele was associated with an odds ratio ( OR) of 2.2 ( P = .003; P(corrected) = .015) for malaria among patients with mild malaria due to any Plasmodium species and 2.1 ( P = .015; P(corrected) = .75) among patients with mild malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum only. The TLR-6 S249P SNP showed an excess of homozygotes for the TLR-6 249P allele in asymptomatic persons, compared with patients with mild malaria due to any Plasmodium species (OR 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-4.2; P = .01; P(corrected) = .05), suggesting that the TLR-6 249S allele may be a risk factor for malaria ( OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.7; P = 0.01; P(corrected) = .05). The TLR-9-1486C allele showed a strong association with high parasitemia ( P < .001). Conclusions. Our findings indicate that the TLR-1 and TLR- 6 variants are significantly associated with mild malaria, whereas the TLR-9-1486C/T variants are associated with high parasitemia. These discoveries may bring additional understanding to the pathogenesis of malaria.

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IgG antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii were detected in, March-April 2004, in 65.8% (95% confidence interval, 60.8-70.8%) of 342 systematically sampled subjects 5-90 years of age (87.5% of the eligible) living in a rural settlement in Amazonia, with a seroconversion rate of 9% over I year of follow-up of 99 seronegative subjects. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified age as the only significant independent predictor of seropositivity at the baseline. Each additional year of age increases the odds of being seropositive by 6%, and 76.8% of the subjects are expected to be seropositive at 30 years of age. A single high-prevalence spatial cluster, comprising 11.9% of the seropositive subjects, was detected in the area; households in the cluster were less likely to have dogs as pets and their heads had a lower education level, when compared with households located outside the cluster. The challenges for preventing human toxoplasmosis in tropical rural settings are discussed.

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Potassium content in tea brew was determined by gamma-ray spectroscopy, Using the 1461 keV gamma-ray fro M (40)K, the naturally occurring radioactive isotope of potassium. We measured radiation with a shielded HPGe detector from individual test samples of tea leaves, before and after infusion preparation, and from commercial instant tea powder. The correction factor for the gamma-ray self-absorption in the extended source was determined with the help of Monte-Carlo simulations. This gamma-ray spectroscopy technique enabled the absolute determination of potassium content with a relative uncertainty smaller than 4%, at the one standard deviation confidence level, showing the feasibility of this method. An experiment to evaluate a possible systematic Uncertainty due to K distribution heterogeneity in the sample was performed, with file result that the corresponding relative standard deviation is smaller than 2% at 95% confidence level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Steatosis is diagnosed on the basis of the macroscopic aspect of the liver evaluated by the surgeon at the time of organ extraction or by means of a frozen biopsy. In the present study, the applicability of laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) spectroscopy was investigated as a method for the diagnosis of different degrees of steatosis experimentally induced in rats. Rats received a high-lipid diet for different periods of time. The animals were divided into groups according to the degree of induced steatosis diagnosis by histology. The concentration of fat in the liver was correlated with LIF by means of the steatosis fluorescence factor (SFF). The histology classification, according to liver fat concentration was, Severe Steatosis, Moderate Steatosis, Mild Steatosis and Control (no liver steatosis). Fluorescence intensity could be directly correlated with fat content. It was possible to estimate an average of fluorescence intensity variable by means of different confidence intervals (P=95%) for each steatosis group. SFF was significantly higher in the Severe Steatosis group (P < 0.001) compared with the Moderate Steatosis, Mild Steatosis and Control groups. The various degrees of steatosis could be directly correlated with SFF. LIF spectroscopy proved to be a method capable of identifying the degree of hepatic steatosis in this animal model, and has the potential of clinical application for non-invasive evaluation of the degree of steatosis.

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BACKGROUND: This study evaluated demographic profiles and prevalence of serologic markers among donors who used confidential unit exclusion (CUE) to assess the effectiveness of CUE and guide public policies regarding the use of CUE for enhancing safety versus jeopardizing the blood supply by dropping CUE. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of whole blood donations at a large public blood center in Sao Paulo from July 2007 through June 2009, compared demographic data, and confirmed serologic results among donors who used and who have never used CUE (CUE never). RESULTS: There were 265,550 whole blood units collected from 181,418 donors from July 2007 through June 2009. A total of 9658 (3.6%) units were discarded, 2973 (1.1%) because CUE was used at the current donation (CUE now) and 6685 (2.5%) because CUE was used in the past (CUE past). The CUE rate was highest among donors with less than 8 years of education (odds ratio [OR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.51-3.08). CUE now donations were associated with higher positive infectious disease marker rates than CUE never donations (OR, 1.41; CI, 1.13-1.77), whereas CUE past donations were not (OR, 1.04; CI, 0.75-1.45). CONCLUSION: The CUE process results in a high rate of unit discard. CUE use on an individual donation appears predictive of a high-risk marker-positive donation and, thus, appears to contribute modestly to blood safety. The policy of discarding units from donors who have previously CUE-positive donations does not improve safety and should be discontinued.

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Objectives: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a major risk factor for cervical disease. Using baseline data from the HIV-infected cohort of Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute at Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, factors associated with an increased prevalence of HPV were assessed. Methods: Samples from 634 HIV-infected women were tested for the presence of HPV infection using hybrid capture 11 and polymerase chain reaction. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using Poisson regression analysis with robust variance. Results: The overall prevalence of HPV infection was 48%, of which 94% were infected with a high-risk HPV. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with infection with high-risk HPV type were: younger age (<30 years of age; PR 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1), current or prior drug use (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6), self-reported history of HPV infection (PR 1.2, 95% CI 0.96-1.6), condom use in the last sexual intercourse (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.7), and nadir CD4+ T-cell count <100 cells/mm(3) (PR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1). Conclusions: The estimated prevalence of high-risk HPV-infection among HIV-infected women from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, was high. Close monitoring of HPV-related effects is warranted in all HIV-infected women, in particular those of younger age and advanced immunosuppression. (C) 2008 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.