Short-term wind power forecast based on cluster analysis and artificial neural networks

[EN]In this paper an architecture for an estimator of short-term wind farm power is proposed. The estimator is made up of a Linear Machine classifier and a set of k Multilayer Perceptrons, training each one for a specific subspace of the input space. The splitting of the input dataset into the k clusters is done using a k-means technique, obtaining the equivalent Linear Machine classifier from the cluster centroids...

Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.

Event Monitoring Web Services for Heterogeneous Information Systems

Heterogeneity has to be taken into account when integrating a set of existing information sources into a distributed information system that are nowadays often based on Service- Oriented Architectures (SOA). This is also particularly applicable to distributed services such as event monitoring, which are useful in the context of Event Driven Architectures (EDA) and Complex Event Processing (CEP). Web services deal with this heterogeneity at a technical level, also providing little support for event processing. Our central thesis is that such a fully generic solution cannot provide complete support for event monitoring; instead, source specific semantics such as certain event types or support for certain event monitoring techniques have to be taken into account. Our core result is the design of a configurable event monitoring (Web) service that allows us to trade genericity for the exploitation of source specific characteristics. It thus delivers results for the areas of SOA, Web services, CEP and EDA.

HEALTHCARE INFORMATION SYSTEMS INTEGRATION USING SOA

The growing pressure to increase the quality of health services, as well as reducing costs, has caused healthcare organizations to increase the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) through the development and adoption of Healthcare Information Systems (HIS). However, the need for exchange of information between HIS and between organizations has also increased, resulting in the problem of interoperability. This problem is considered complex, but the use of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) appears as a good way to address this issue. This paper presents a systematic review, performed in order to find out how and in which contexts SOA is being used to ensure the interoperability of HIS.

A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting.

Forecasting large and fast variations of wind power (the so called ramps) helps achieve the integration of large amounts of wind energy. This paper presents a survey on wind power ramp forecasting, reflecting the increasing interest on this topic observed since 2007. Three main aspects were identified from the literature: wind power ramp definition, ramp underlying meteorological causes and experi-ences in predicting ramps. In this framework, we additionally outline a number of recommendations and potential lines of research.

Applicability of an assessment model for healthcare information systems in a public hospital

Assessment processes are essential to guarantee quality and continuous improvement of software in healthcare, as they measure software attributes in their lifecycle, verify the degree of alignment between the software and its objectives and identify unpredicted events. This article analyses the use of an assessment model based on software metrics for three healthcare information systems from a public hospital that provides secondary and tertiary care in the region of Ribeirão Preto. Compliance with the metrics was investigated using questionnaires in guided interviews of the system analysts responsible for the applications. The outcomes indicate that most of the procedures specified in the model can be adopted to assess the systems that serves the organization, particularly in the attributes of compatibility, reliability, safety, portability and usability.

Diaphragm muscle adaptation to sustained hypoxia: lessons from animal models with relevance to high altitude and chronic respiratory diseases

The diaphragm is the primary inspiratory pump muscle of breathing. Notwithstanding its critical role in pulmonary ventilation, the diaphragm like other striated muscles is malleable in response to physiological and pathophysiological stressors, with potential implications for the maintenance of respiratory homeostasis. This review considers hypoxic adaptation of the diaphragm muscle, with a focus on functional, structural, and metabolic remodeling relevant to conditions such as high altitude and chronic respiratory disease. On the basis of emerging data in animal models, we posit that hypoxia is a significant driver of respiratory muscle plasticity, with evidence suggestive of both compensatory and deleterious adaptations in conditions of sustained exposure to low oxygen. Cellular strategies driving diaphragm remodeling during exposure to sustained hypoxia appear to confer hypoxic tolerance at the expense of peak force-generating capacity, a key functional parameter that correlates with patient morbidity and mortality. Changes include, but are not limited to: redox-dependent activation of hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) and MAP kinases; time-dependent carbonylation of key metabolic and functional proteins; decreased mitochondrial respiration; activation of atrophic signaling and increased proteolysis; and altered functional performance. Diaphragm muscle weakness may be a signature effect of sustained hypoxic exposure. We discuss the putative role of reactive oxygen species as mediators of both advantageous and disadvantageous adaptations of diaphragm muscle to sustained hypoxia, and the role of antioxidants in mitigating adverse effects of chronic hypoxic stress on respiratory muscle function.

Constraint-Informed Information Systems in Space Management Utilization

Declarative techniques such as Constraint Programming can be very effective in modeling and assisting management decisions. We present a method for managing university classrooms which extends the previous design of a Constraint-Informed Information System to generate the timetables while dealing with spatial resource optimization issues. We seek to maximize space utilization along two dimensions: classroom use and occupancy rates. While we want to maximize the room use rate, we still need to satisfy the soft constraints which model students’ and lecturers’ preferences. We present a constraint logic programming-based local search method which relies on an evaluation function that combines room utilization and timetable soft preferences. Based on this, we developed a tool which we applied to the improvement of classroom allocation in a University. Comparing the results to the current timetables obtained without optimizing space utilization, the initial versions of our tool manages to reach a 30% improvement in space utilization, while preserving the quality of the timetable, both for students and lecturers.

10th European Conference on Information Systems Management

The 10th European Conference on Information Systems Management is being held at The University of Evora, Portugal on the 8 /9 September 2016. The Conference Chair is Paulo Silva and the Programme Chairs are Prof. Rui Quaresma and Prof. António Guerreiro. ECISM provides an opportunity for individuals researching and working in the broad field of information systems management, including IT evaluation to come together to exchange ideas and discuss current research in the field. This has developed into a particularly important forum for the present era, where the modern challenges of managing information and evaluating the effectiveness of related technologies are constantly evolving in the world of Big Data and Cloud Computing. We hope that this year’s conference will provide you with plenty of opportunities to share your expertise with colleagues from around the world. The keynote speakers for the Conference are Carlos Zorrinho from the Portuguese Delegation and Isabel Ramos from University of Minho, Portugal. ECISM 2016 received an initial submission of 84 abstracts. After the double blind peer review process 25 aca demic papers, 7 PhD research papers, 3 Masters research paper and 5 work in progress papers have been ac cepted for publication in these Conference Proceedings. These papers represent research from around the world, including Belgium, Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Poland, Portugal, South Africa, Sweden, The Netherlands, UK and Vietnam.

High altitude viticulture and world viticultural climate.

2010

High altitude wine in Santa Catarina, Brazil: a collective brand.

2010

Wind loading predictions using computational fluid dynamics

Using Computational Wind Engineering, CWE, for solving wind-related problems is still a challenging task today, mainly due to the high computational cost required to obtain trustworthy simulations. In particular, the Large Eddy Simulation, LES, has been widely used for evaluating wind loads on buildings. The present thesis assesses the capability of LES as a design tool for wind loading predictions through three cases. The first case is using LES for simulating the wind field around a ground-mounted rectangular prism in Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flow. The numerical results are validated with experimental results for seven wind attack angles, giving a global understanding of the model performance. The case with the worst model behaviour is investigated, including the spatial distribution of the pressure coefficients and their discrepancies with respect to experimental results. The effects of some numerical parameters are investigated for this case to understand their effectiveness in modifying the obtained numerical results. The second case is using LES for investigating the wind effects on a real high-rise building, aiming at validating the performance of LES as a design tool in practical applications. The numerical results are validated with the experimental results in terms of the distribution of the pressure statistics and the global forces. The mesh sensitivity and the computational cost are discussed. The third case is using LES for studying the wind effects on the new large-span roof over the Bologna stadium. The dynamic responses are analyzed and design envelopes for the structure are obtained. Although it is a numerical simulation before the traditional wind tunnel tests, i.e. the validation of the numerical results are not performed, the preliminary evaluations can effectively inform later investigations and provide the final design processes with deeper confidence regarding the absence of potentially unexpected behaviours.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Influence of the Operational Constraints in the Active Transmission Losses Allocation via Lagrange Multipliers

This paper presents an approach for the active transmission losses allocation between the agents of the system. The approach uses the primal and dual variable information of the Optimal Power Flow in the losses allocation strategy. The allocation coefficients are determined via Lagrange multipliers. The paper emphasizes the necessity to consider the operational constraints and parameters of the systems in the problem solution. An example, for a 3-bus system is presented in details, as well as a comparative test with the main allocation methods. Case studies on the IEEE 14-bus systems are carried out to verify the influence of the constraints and parameters of the system in the losses allocation.