A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Incorporating human-factors in car-following models : a review of recent developments and research needs

Over the past decades there has been a considerable development in the modeling of car-following (CF) behavior as a result of research undertaken by both traffic engineers and traffic psychologists. While traffic engineers seek to understand the behavior of a traffic stream, traffic psychologists seek to describe the human abilities and errors involved in the driving process. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these two research streams. It is necessary to consider human-factors in {CF} modeling for a more realistic representation of {CF} behavior in complex driving situations (for example, in traffic breakdowns, crash-prone situations, and adverse weather conditions) to improve traffic safety and to better understand widely-reported puzzling traffic flow phenomena, such as capacity drop, stop-and-go oscillations, and traffic hysteresis. While there are some excellent reviews of {CF} models available in the literature, none of these specifically focuses on the human factors in these models. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing the available literature with a specific focus on the latest advances in car-following models from both the engineering and human behavior points of view. In so doing, it analyses the benefits and limitations of various models and highlights future research needs in the area.

Theorizing the use of multiple conceptual models in combination

Conceptual modelling continues to be an important means for graphically capturing the requirements of an information system. Observations of modelling practice suggest that modellers often use multiple conceptual models in combination, because they articulate different aspects of real-world domains. Yet, the available empirical as well as theoretical research in this area has largely studied the use of single models, or single modelling grammars. We develop a Theory of Combined Ontological Coverage by extending an existing theory of ontological expressiveness of conceptual modelling grammars. Our new theory posits that multiple conceptual models are used to increase the maximum coverage of the real-world domain being modelled, whilst trying to minimize the ontological overlap between the models. We illustrate how the theory can be applied to analyse sets of conceptual models. We develop three propositions of the theory about evaluations of model combinations in terms of users’ selection, understandability and usefulness of conceptual models.

MIMO and SISO identification of radiation force terms for models of marine structures in waves

This paper presents a discussion on the use of MIMO and SISO techniques for identification of the radiation force terms in models for surface vessels. We compare and discuss two techniques recently proposed in literature for this application: time domain identification and frequency domain identification. We compare the methods in terms of estimates model order, accuracy of the fit, use of the available information, and ease of use and implementation.

Principles of goal-directed spatial robot navigation in biomimetic models

Mobile robots and animals alike must effectively navigate their environments in order to achieve their goals. For animals goal-directed navigation facilitates finding food, seeking shelter or migration; similarly robots perform goal-directed navigation to find a charging station, get out of the rain or guide a person to a destination. This similarity in tasks extends to the environment as well; increasingly, mobile robots are operating in the same underwater, ground and aerial environments that animals do. Yet despite these similarities, goal-directed navigation research in robotics and biology has proceeded largely in parallel, linked only by a small amount of interdisciplinary research spanning both areas. Most state-of-the-art robotic navigation systems employ a range of sensors, world representations and navigation algorithms that seem far removed from what we know of how animals navigate; their navigation systems are shaped by key principles of navigation in ‘real-world’ environments including dealing with uncertainty in sensing, landmark observation and world modelling. By contrast, biomimetic animal navigation models produce plausible animal navigation behaviour in a range of laboratory experimental navigation paradigms, typically without addressing many of these robotic navigation principles. In this paper, we attempt to link robotics and biology by reviewing the current state of the art in conventional and biomimetic goal-directed navigation models, focusing on the key principles of goal-oriented robotic navigation and the extent to which these principles have been adapted by biomimetic navigation models and why.

Computation of Mathematical Models for Complex Industrial Processes

Designed for undergraduate and postgraduate students, academic researchers and industrial practitioners, this book provides comprehensive case studies on numerical computing of industrial processes and step-by-step procedures for conducting industrial computing. It assumes minimal knowledge in numerical computing and computer programming, making it easy to read, understand and follow. Topics discussed include fundamentals of industrial computing, finite difference methods, the Wavelet-Collocation Method, the Wavelet-Galerkin Method, High Resolution Methods, and comparative studies of various methods. These are discussed using examples of carefully selected models from real processes of industrial significance. The step-by-step procedures in all these case studies can be easily applied to other industrial processes without a need for major changes and thus provide readers with useful frameworks for the applications of engineering computing in fundamental research problems and practical development scenarios.

kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Fourier active appearance models

Gaining invariance to camera and illumination variations has been a well investigated topic in Active Appearance Model (AAM) fitting literature. The major problem lies in the inability of the appearance parameters of the AAM to generalize to unseen conditions. An attractive approach for gaining invariance is to fit an AAM to a multiple filter response (e.g. Gabor) representation of the input image. Naively applying this concept with a traditional AAM is computationally prohibitive, especially as the number of filter responses increase. In this paper, we present a computationally efficient AAM fitting algorithm based on the Lucas-Kanade (LK) algorithm posed in the Fourier domain that affords invariance to both expression and illumination. We refer to this as a Fourier AAM (FAAM), and show that this method gives substantial improvement in person specific AAM fitting performance over traditional AAM fitting methods.

The current state of play in human neural stem cell models : what we have learnt from the rodent

Rodent (mouse and rat) models have been crucial in developing our understanding of human neurogenesis and neural stem cell (NSC) biology. The study of neurogenesis in rodents has allowed us to begin to understand adult human neurogenesis and in particular, protocols established for isolation and in vitro propagation of rodent NSCs have successfully been applied to the expansion of human NSCs. Furthermore, rodent models have played a central role in studying NSC function in vivo and in the development of NSC transplantation strategies for cell therapy applications. Rodents and humans share many similarities in the process of neurogenesis and NSC biology however distinct species differences are important considerations for the development of more efficient human NSC therapeutic applications. Here we review the important contributions rodent studies have had to our understanding of human neurogenesis and to the development of in vitro and in vivo NSC research. Species differences will be discussed to identify key areas in need of further development for human NSC therapy applications.

Tissue-engineered 3D tumor angiogenesis models : potential technologies for anti-cancer drug discovery

Angiogenesis is indispensable for solid tumor expansion, and thus it has become a major target of cancer research and anti-cancer therapies. Deciphering the arcane actions of various cell populations during tumor angiogenesis requires sophisticated research models, which could capture the dynamics and complexity of the process. There is a continuous need for improvement of existing research models, which engages interdisciplinary approaches of tissue engineering with life sciences. Tireless efforts to develop a new model to study tumor angiogenesis result in innovative solutions, which bring us one step closer to decipher the dubious nature of cancer. This review aims to overview the recent developments, current limitations and future challenges in three-dimensional tissue-engineered models for the study of tumor angiogenesis and for the purpose of elucidating novel targets aimed at anti-cancer drug discovery.

Use of contract models to improve environmental outcomes in transport infrastructure construction

The type of contract model may have a significant influence on achieving project objectives, including environmental and climate change goals. This research investigates non-standard contract models impacting greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in transport infrastructure construction in Australia. The research is based on the analysis of two case studies: an Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) contract and a Design and Construct (D&C) contract with GHG reduction requirements embedded in the contractor selection. Main findings support the use of ECIs for better integrating decisions made during the planning phase with the construction activities, and improve environmental outcomes while achieving financial and time savings. Key words: greenhouse gases reduction; road construction; contracting; ECI; D&C

Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Virtual 3D models of insects for accelerated quarantine control

We learn from the past that invasive species have caused tremendous damage to native species and serious disruption to agricultural industries. It is crucial for us to prevent this in the future. The first step of this process is to identify correctly an invasive species from native ones. Current identification methods, relying on mainly 2D images, can result in low accuracy and be time consuming. Such methods provide little help to a quarantine officer who has time constraints to response when on duty. To deal with this problem, we propose new solutions using 3D virtual models of insects. We explain how working with insects in the 3D domain can be much better than the 2D domain. We also describe how to create true-color 3D models of insects using an image-based 3D reconstruction method. This method is ideal for quarantine control and inspection tasks that involve the verification of a physical specimen against known invasive species. Finally we show that these insect models provide valuable material for other applications such as research, education, arts and entertainment. © 2013 IEEE.