Fitting conditional and simultaneous autoregressive spatial models in hglm

We present a new version (> 2.0) of the hglm package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs) with spatially correlated random effects. CAR() and SAR() families for conditional and simultaneous autoregressive random effects were implemented. Eigen decomposition of the matrix describing the spatial structure (e.g., the neighborhood matrix) was used to transform the CAR/SAR random effects into an independent, but eteroscedastic, Gaussian random effect. A linear predictor is fitted for the random effect variance to estimate the parameters in the CAR and SAR models. This gives a computationally efficient algorithm for moderately sized problems.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

Kassettbandet: Den gåtfulla överlevaren får ett uppsving?

Sedan kassettbandet trängdes undan av CD:n under 90-talet har det fört en alltmer tynande tillvaro, fram tills att det relativt nyligen började uppstå små oberoende musikbolag som helt eller delvis släpper begränsade albumupplagor på kassett och en del rykten började gå att kassettbandet var på väg tillbaka. Även större band och skivbolag hakade på trenden och släppte större upplagor av vissa få utvalda album på just kassettband. Kan det vara möjligt att detta gamla och uträknade medium håller på att få en renässans i vår digitala guldålder? De förklaringsmodeller och teoretiska begrepp jag använt mig för att förklara detta fenomen är Nostalgi, Analogisering och Nätverkande. I ett stort antal artiklar och debatter ges olika svar och synpunkter på kassettbandets eventuella gåtfulla comeback och denna uppsats är tänkt att fungera som en slags kompassnål som pekar ut en riktning till följd av det material jag har tillgodogjort mig och redovisat i denna uppsats. Här återfinns också ett antal intervjuer med både privatpersoner och skivbutiker som fördjupar och resonerar kring orsak och verkan kring kassettfenomenet. De önskvärda hårda data och tillgänglig och tydlig statistik lyser med sin frånvaro då kassettband sällan återfinns på några listor eller mätningar eftersom de aldrig fick någon högre status trots sin enorma spridning, till skillnad mot vinylskivor och CD. Med denna uppsats görs ett försök att sammanställa en bild av denna övervintrade dinosaurie till audioformat och får, åtminstone delvis, en förklaring till sin egen överlevnad.

Testing the gravity p-median model empirically

Regarding the location of a facility, the presumption in the widely used p-median model is that the customer opts for the shortest route to the nearest facility. However, this assumption is problematic on free markets since the customer is presumed to gravitate to a facility by the distance to and the attractiveness of it. The recently introduced gravity p-median model offers an extension to the p-median model that account for this. The model is therefore potentially interesting, although it has not yet been implemented and tested empirically. In this paper, we have implemented the model in an empirical problem of locating vehicle inspections, locksmiths, and retail stores of vehicle spare-parts for the purpose of investigating its superiority to the p-median model. We found, however, the gravity p-median model to be of limited use for the problem of locating facilities as it either gives solutions similar to the p-median model, or it gives unstable solutions due to a non-concave objective function.

Wind farm construction impacts reindeer migration and movement corridors

Over the last decade, we have seen a massive increase in the construction of wind farms in northern Fennoscandia. Wind farms comprising hundreds of wind turbines are being built, with little knowledge of the possible cumulative adverse effects on the habitat use and migration of semi-domesticated free-ranging reindeer. We assessed how reindeer responded to wind farm construction in an already fragmented landscape, with specific reference to the effects on use of movement corridors and reindeer habitat selection. We used GPS-data from reindeer during calving and post-calving in the MalAyen reindeer herding community in Sweden. We analysed data from the pre-development years compared to the construction years of two relatively small wind farms. During construction of the wind farms, use of original migration routes and movement corridors within 2 km of development declined by 76 %. This decline in use corresponded to an increase in activity of the reindeer measured by increased step lengths within 0-5 km. The step length was highest nearest the development and declining with distance, as animals moved towards migration corridors and turned around or were observed in holding patterns while not crossing. During construction, reindeer avoided the wind farms at both regional and landscape scale of selection. The combined construction activities associated with even a few wind turbines combined with power lines and roads in or close to central movement corridors caused a reduction in the use of such corridors and grazing habitat and increased the fragmentation of the reindeer calving ranges.

Genome-wide association mapping in a wild avian population identifies a link between genetic and phenotypic variation in a life-history trait

Understanding the genetic basis of traits involved in adaptation is a major challenge in evolutionary biology but remains poorly understood. Here, we use genome-wide association mapping using a custom 50 k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array in a natural population of collared flycatchers to examine the genetic basis of clutch size, an important life-history trait in many animal species. We found evidence for an association on chromosome 18 where one SNP significant at the genome-wide level explained 3.9% of the phenotypic variance. We also detected two suggestive quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on chromosomes 9 and 26. Fitness differences among genotypes were generally weak and not significant, although there was some indication of a sex-by-genotype interaction for lifetime reproductive success at the suggestive QTL on chromosome 26. This implies that sexual antagonism may play a role in maintaining genetic variation at this QTL. Our findings provide candidate regions for a classic avian life-history trait that will be useful for future studies examining the molecular and cellular function of, as well as evolutionary mechanisms operating at, these loci.

Recent developments in statistical methods for detecting genetic loci affecting phenotypic variability

A number of recent works have introduced statistical methods for detecting genetic loci that affect phenotypic variability, which we refer to as variability-controlling quantitative trait loci (vQTL). These are genetic variants whose allelic state predicts how much phenotype values will vary about their expected means. Such loci are of great potential interest in both human and non-human genetic studies, one reason being that a detected vQTL could represent a previously undetected interaction with other genes or environmental factors. The simultaneous publication of these new methods in different journals has in many cases precluded opportunity for comparison. We survey some of these methods, the respective trade-offs they imply, and the connections between them. The methods fall into three main groups: classical non-parametric, fully parametric, and semi-parametric two-stage approximations. Choosing between alternatives involves balancing the need for robustness, flexibility, and speed. For each method, we identify important assumptions and limitations, including those of practical importance, such as their scope for including covariates and random effects. We show in simulations that both parametric methods and their semi-parametric approximations can give elevated false positive rates when they ignore mean-variance relationships intrinsic to the data generation process. We conclude that choice of method depends on the trait distribution, the need to include non-genetic covariates, and the population size and structure, coupled with a critical evaluation of how these fit with the assumptions of the statistical model.

Inheritance beyond plain heritability : variance-controlling genes in Arabidopsis thaliana

The phenotypic effect of a gene is normally described by the mean-difference between alternative genotypes. A gene may, however, also influence the phenotype by causing a difference in variance between genotypes. Here, we reanalyze a publicly available Arabidopsis thaliana dataset [1] and show that genetic variance heterogeneity appears to be as common as normal additive effects on a genomewide scale. The study also develops theory to estimate the contributions of variance differences between genotypes to the phenotypic variance, and this is used to show that individual loci can explain more than 20% of the phenotypic variance. Two well-studied systems, cellular control of molybdenum level by the ion-transporter MOT1 and flowering-time regulation by the FRI-FLC expression network, and a novel association for Leaf serration are used to illustrate the contribution of major individual loci, expression pathways, and gene-by-environment interactions to the genetic variance heterogeneity.

High female mortality resulting in herd collapse in free-ranging domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Sweden

Reindeer herding in Sweden is a form of pastoralism practised by the indigenous Sami population. The economy is mainly based on meat production. Herd size is generally regulated by harvest in order not to overuse grazing ranges and keep a productive herd. Nonetheless, herd growth and room for harvest is currently small in many areas. Negative herd growth and low harvest rate were observed in one of two herds in a reindeer herding community in Central Sweden. The herds (A and B) used the same ranges from April until the autumn gathering in October-December, but were separated on different ranges over winter. Analyses of capture-recapture for 723 adult female reindeer over five years (2007-2012) revealed high annual losses (7.1% and 18.4%, for herd A and B respectively). A continuing decline in the total reindeer number in herd B demonstrated an inability to maintain the herd size in spite of a very small harvest. An estimated breakpoint for when herd size cannot be kept stable confirmed that the observed female mortality rate in herd B represented a state of herd collapse. Lower calving success in herd B compared to A indicated differences in winter foraging conditions. However, we found only minor differences in animal body condition between the herds in autumn. We found no evidence that a lower autumn body mass generally increased the risk for a female of dying from one autumn to the next. We conclude that the prime driver of the on-going collapse of herd B is not high animal density or poor body condition. Accidents or disease seem unlikely as major causes of mortality. Predation, primarily by lynx and wolverine, appears to be the most plausible reason for the high female mortality and state of collapse in the studied reindeer herding community.

Jämställd Socialtjänst II – En undersökning av jämställdhet ur brukarperspektiv inom socialtjänsten

Vårt syfte har varit att undersöka jämställdheten inom socialtjänsten, i en norrländsk glesbygdskommun och en mellanstor stadskommun. Uppsatsen består av två studier där del 1 är kvantitativ och behandlar individ- och familjeomsorgens beslut år 2004, och där del 2 är kvalitativ och består av uppföljande intervjuer. Resultaten i del 1 redovisades utifrån, av oss, sammanställd statistik som analyserades med hjälp av tidigare forskning och de valda teoretiska begreppen, det vill säga jämställdhet, genus och social konstruktivism. Resultatet visade att insatser för barn och unga skiljer sig åt för pojkar och flickor i frivillighet kontra tvång. I besluten gällande vuxna missbrukare konstaterade vi en markant skillnad mellan könen både i det totala antalet aktuella individer samt i den procentuella könsfördelningen i varje beslut om åtgärd. Resultaten inom ekonomiskt bistånd visar att kvinnor med barn och män utan barn utgör den övervägande delen av biståndstagarna. Del 2 behandlar intervjuer från tre socialsekreterare. Resultaten visar att socialtjänsten vidmakthåller traditionella uppfattningar om kön, och att jämställdhet ofta ställs mot SoL:s individuella bedömning, där könet ej ska påverka besluten. Uppsatsen är inte generaliserbar då den endast behandlar beslut från två utvalda kommuner på lokal nivå.

Essays on Bayesian Inference for Social Networks

This thesis presents Bayesian solutions to inference problems for three types of social network data structures: a single observation of a social network, repeated observations on the same social network, and repeated observations on a social network developing through time. A social network is conceived as being a structure consisting of actors and their social interaction with each other. A common conceptualisation of social networks is to let the actors be represented by nodes in a graph with edges between pairs of nodes that are relationally tied to each other according to some definition. Statistical analysis of social networks is to a large extent concerned with modelling of these relational ties, which lends itself to empirical evaluation. The first paper deals with a family of statistical models for social networks called exponential random graphs that takes various structural features of the network into account. In general, the likelihood functions of exponential random graphs are only known up to a constant of proportionality. A procedure for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is presented. The algorithm consists of two basic steps, one in which an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings up-dating step is used, and another in which an importance sampling scheme is used to calculate the acceptance probability of the Metropolis-Hastings step. In paper number two a method for modelling reports given by actors (or other informants) on their social interaction with others is investigated in a Bayesian framework. The model contains two basic ingredients: the unknown network structure and functions that link this unknown network structure to the reports given by the actors. These functions take the form of probit link functions. An intrinsic problem is that the model is not identified, meaning that there are combinations of values on the unknown structure and the parameters in the probit link functions that are observationally equivalent. Instead of using restrictions for achieving identification, it is proposed that the different observationally equivalent combinations of parameters and unknown structure be investigated a posteriori. Estimation of parameters is carried out using Gibbs sampling with a switching devise that enables transitions between posterior modal regions. The main goal of the procedures is to provide tools for comparisons of different model specifications. Papers 3 and 4, propose Bayesian methods for longitudinal social networks. The premise of the models investigated is that overall change in social networks occurs as a consequence of sequences of incremental changes. Models for the evolution of social networks using continuos-time Markov chains are meant to capture these dynamics. Paper 3 presents an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posteriors of parameters for such Markov chains. More specifically, the unobserved evolution of the network in-between observations is explicitly modelled thereby avoiding the need to deal with explicit formulas for the transition probabilities. This enables likelihood based parameter inference in a wider class of network evolution models than has been available before. Paper 4 builds on the proposed inference procedure of Paper 3 and demonstrates how to perform model selection for a class of network evolution models.

The life histories of the two tropical warblers Sylvia boehmi and Sylvia lugens

Ziel der Arbeit war die Quantifizierung einer Reihe von Lebenszyklusmerkmalen der beiden tropischen Grasmückenarten Sylvia boehmi und S. lugens (Aves: Sylviidae; frühere Gattung Parisoma). 13 Brutpaare beider Arten wurden von 2000 bis 2002 in Kenia beobachtet. Die Daten wurden mit multivariater Statistik und multistate mark-recapture Modellen ausgewertet. Die Lebenszyklusmerkmale der beiden untersuchten Sylvia Arten sind im Vergleich zu den temperaten Sylvia-Arten gekennzeichnet durch kleine Gelege von zwei Eiern, lange Inkubationsperioden (S. boehmi (b.) 15.0 Tage, S. lugens (l.) 14.5 Tage), lange Nestlingsperioden (b. 12.9 Tage, l. 16.0 Tage), und niedrige Nesterfolgsraten (b. 19.4%, l. 33.2%). Der Zeitraum vom Ausfliegen der Jungen bis zu ihrer Unabhängigkeit war mit 58.5 Tagen bei S. boehmi und 37.5 Tagen bei S. lugens vergleichsweise lang und die Überlebensrate der flüggen Jungen in dieser Zeit war relativ hoch (b. 69.2%, l. 55.4%). Die jährliche Überlebensrate der brütenden adulten Tiere betrug bei S. boehmi 71.2% und bei S. lugens 57.2%. Die Saisonalität des Habitats, bedingt durch Regen- und Trockenzeiten, hatte keinen Einfluss auf die monatliche Überlebensrate im Laufe eines Jahres. Trotz hoher Nestprädationsraten gab es keinen klaren Zusammenhang zwischen Prädation und Fütterungsrate, Nestbewachung oder Neststandort.

On the geometry of the spin-statistics connection in quantum mechanics

The Spin-Statistics theorem states that the statistics of a system of identical particles is determined by their spin: Particles of integer spin are Bosons (i.e. obey Bose-Einstein statistics), whereas particles of half-integer spin are Fermions (i.e. obey Fermi-Dirac statistics). Since the original proof by Fierz and Pauli, it has been known that the connection between Spin and Statistics follows from the general principles of relativistic Quantum Field Theory. In spite of this, there are different approaches to Spin-Statistics and it is not clear whether the theorem holds under assumptions that are different, and even less restrictive, than the usual ones (e.g. Lorentz-covariance). Additionally, in Quantum Mechanics there is a deep relation between indistinguishabilty and the geometry of the configuration space. This is clearly illustrated by Gibbs' paradox. Therefore, for many years efforts have been made in order to find a geometric proof of the connection between Spin and Statistics. Recently, various proposals have been put forward, in which an attempt is made to derive the Spin-Statistics connection from assumptions different from the ones used in the relativistic, quantum field theoretic proofs. Among these, there is the one due to Berry and Robbins (BR), based on the postulation of a certain single-valuedness condition, that has caused a renewed interest in the problem. In the present thesis, we consider the problem of indistinguishability in Quantum Mechanics from a geometric-algebraic point of view. An approach is developed to study configuration spaces Q having a finite fundamental group, that allows us to describe different geometric structures of Q in terms of spaces of functions on the universal cover of Q. In particular, it is shown that the space of complex continuous functions over the universal cover of Q admits a decomposition into C(Q)-submodules, labelled by the irreducible representations of the fundamental group of Q, that can be interpreted as the spaces of sections of certain flat vector bundles over Q. With this technique, various results pertaining to the problem of quantum indistinguishability are reproduced in a clear and systematic way. Our method is also used in order to give a global formulation of the BR construction. As a result of this analysis, it is found that the single-valuedness condition of BR is inconsistent. Additionally, a proposal aiming at establishing the Fermi-Bose alternative, within our approach, is made.

Search for K isomers in 252,254 No and 260 Sg and investigation of their nuclear structure

Study of K isomerism in the transfermium region around the deformed shells at N=152, Z=102, and N=162, Z=108 provides important information on the structure of heavy nuclei. Recent calculations suggest that the K-isomerism can enhance the stability of such nuclei against alpha emission and spontaneous fission. Nuclei showing K isomerism have neutron and proton orbitals with large spin projections on the symmetry axis which is due to multi quasiparticle states with aligned spins K. Quasi-particle states are formed by breaking pairs of nucleons and raising one or two nucleons in orbitals near the Fermi surface above the gap, forming high K (multi)quasi-particle states mainly at low excitation energies. Experimental examples are the recently studied two quasi-particle K isomers in 250,256-Fm, 254-No, and 270-Ds. Nuclei in this region, are produced with cross sections ranging from several nb up to µb, which are high enough for a detailed decay study. In this work, K isomerism in Sg and No isotopes was studied at the velocity filter SHIP of GSI, Darmstadt. The data were obtained by using a new data acquisition system which was developed and installed during this work. 252,254-No and 260-Sg were produced in fusion evaporation reactions of 48-Ca and 54-Cr projectiles with 206,208-Pb targets at beam energies close to the Coulomb barrier. A new K isomer was discovered in 252-No at excitation energy of 1.25 MeV, which decays to the ground state rotational band via gamma emission. It has a half-life of about 100 ms. The population of the isomeric state was about 20% of the ground state population. Detailed investigations were performed on 254-No in which two isomeric states (275 ms and 198 µs) were already discovered by R.-D. Herzberg, but due to the higher number of observed gamma decays more detailed information about the decay path of the isomers was obtained in the present work. In 260-Sg, we observed no statistically significant component with a half life different from that of the ground state. A comparison between experimental results and theoretical calculations of the single particle energies shows a fair agreement. The structure of the here studied nuclei is in particular important as single particle levels are involved which are relevant for the next shell closure expected to form the region of the shell stabilized superheavy elements at proton numbers 114, 120, or 126 and neutron number 184. K isomers, in particular, could be an ideal tool for the synthesis and study of these isotopes due to enhanced spontaneous fission life times which could result in higher alpha to spontaneous fission branching ratios and longer half lifes.